Saturday 31/01

Early selections - will try to add analysis tomorrow if I have time....

QPR @ 7/4 Skybet

Hibs @ 11/10 General

Crystal Palace @ 10/11 Ladbrokes

Some value - WBA 11/4, Blackburn 21/10, Ross County 2/1

Scott

Recommended Albums

Few albums I've been listening to recently which I have to recommend because they are just brilliant.

White Lies - To Lose My Life
Late Of The Pier - Fantasy Black Channel
Does It Offend You, Yeah? - You Have No Idea What You Are Getting Yourself Into

With the price of music these days you can probably pick these up for around £6 each - I urge you to do so. The last of those won't be to everyone's tastes I don't imagine but I can't stop listening.

Also, if you aren't watching Hustle @ Thursday 9pm on BBC1 then your life isn't complete - catch it on the iplayer.

I'll leave you with my favourite track in the world right now....

United vs Rovers

Just about to catch my bus for tonight's South Yorkshire derby and I thought I'd leave you with a bit of betting fodder.

United are too good for Rovers, that's for sure. You can currently get 1.8 on the exchanges which looks like value to me. United are unbeaten in nine matches now and we've won five in a row. Rovers form is useful, but the six unbeaten is artificially improved by the draw and replay win over lowly Cheltenham in the cup, though the 0-0 draw with Villa was noteworthy. They won't come to the Lane to dig in though, they'll look to play their attractive, technical but ultimately toothless passing game and that will be their downfall. United play well against teams that like to pass the ball, we struggle to break down sides that dig in. Doncaster play pretty football but have no strikers, illustrated nicely by their record of 19 goals in 27 games, just six at home.

Rovers have serious injury worries too, their goalkeeper is out and they've just secured some young Welsh kid on loan and Brian Stock, their midfield playmaker, is leaving it as late as possible before deciding whether or not he's fit to play.

No, there's no doubt in my mind that United will take all three points and I'm ploughing three points of my own into the 1.8

I have a feeling for 2-1. United struggle to spank weaker sides, we always seem to do enough and then stop. In recent weeks we've gone 2-0 up over Charlton before letting them get one back, we needed them to score before beating them 3-1 in the league match and we've beaten lowly Forest and Norwich by single goal margins. I'm quite sure that Rovers will be up for it, it is a derby after all, and their confidence will be high after the good result with Villa. They will not be disgraced tonight, I just know they haven't got enough to beat us or even get a draw. With United scoring just 1.5 goals at home in the league and Rovers conceding 1.64 a game on the road, I can't see us notching more than two goals and we've picked up a habit of dropping one or two defensive clangers of late, which might provide Rovers with a goal. At 9.4 on the exchanges, I'm tempted.

United to win: 3 points @ 1.8
United 2-1: 1.5 points @ 9.4
United 2-0: 1 point @ 8.4

Cheltenham 2009 - Queen Mother Day

Right n00bs, let's get this show on the road. I'm going to Cheltenham this year and I don't care if I go alone. I can't afford to do all four days and as I work in a bookies, I will probably be drafted in for Gold Cup day anyway, so my thinking was to go down for day 2 so I can see the brilliance of Master Minded up close and personal in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, as well as enjoying two other Grade 1 races and my first taste of Cheltenham festivities. If I enjoy it, I'll think about doing Gold Cup day next year, but for now who's with me?

I've taken the time to price things up for you lazy shower of bastards.

Having never been to Cheltenham, it's hard to know where to go, but from my research, the Tattersalls Enclosure looks about the best option in terms of price in relation to facilities. Promised "extensive viewing", a "wide selection of bars" and access to the paddock and unsaddling enclosure, it's £35 a pop if we book before March. For comparison, the cheap seats is £25 and the dearest is £65.

I've heard horror stories about trying to stay overnight down there as it's a tiny place with a great many people descending on it. However, if you lot are coming from Scotland, there's no way you'll want to do that journey in a day as it's as much as seven and a half hours if you're unlucky with connections and that. Here's what I propose then - my pal Neil who I went to Southwell with last week (and who I've known since my Uni days) is now based in Leicester. I've spoken to him and he's mad keen on coming to Cheltenham too. He reliably informs me that there's a cheap Travelodge right next to a Gala Casino, five minutes from the restaurant he runs (we're promised discount food and it'll be good, knowing him) and near some pubs and clubs. Leicester is only two hours away from Cheltenham, so it would be easy to get there in the morning and get to after the racing on the train and it's only 35-40 mintues from East Midlands airport, should you prefer to fly in.

The rooms at the Travelodge look like being £29 per night if booked soon, train tickets (Dundee to Leicester) are £37 each way if booked now (that's without any railcard discounts) and it seems that bmibaby.com will give you a return from Edinburgh Airport to East Midlands for £27.98 if you'd prefer, but then you'd have to faff about with MegaBus or something to Edinburgh, as well as a cab from East Midlands.

So a quick recap - here's a suggested plan of attack. All prices correct if booked NOW and are per person unless stated.

Tuesday 10th March. Megabus from Dundee to Edinburgh Airport (depart 17:00, arrive 18:45 - gives you all day to watch the racing at home) - £4.25; Flight (return) from Edinburgh to Nottingham (depart 20:15, arrive 21:25) - £36.03; Taxi to Leicester (www.checkercars.com) £37 a car (Split between a few, that's not too bad but there's probably buses or something cheaper, can be looked at); Hotel (£29) after a few quiet drinks (£whatever you want)

Wednesday 11th. Train to Cheltenham Spa (£13.50), entry to races (£35), beer/gambling (£whatever), train back (£13.50), hotel again (£29)

Thursday 12th. Cab to airport (£37), flight to Edinburgh (N/A), Megabus to Dundee (£4.25)

Estimated cost of EVERYTHING apart from food and beer/gambling money: £190

That's just a suggestion based on twenty minutes research. I'm sure you could get costs down even more with genuine effort. Maybe you could all pile over to Will's in Edinburgh and he could drive you down! I dunno, but you should definitely consider coming, it'll be awesome.

Keep on Scooping!

Tennis Tip 26/01 12am- Gilles Simon

Just a quick post- I like the look of Gilles Simon against Gael Monfils at odds of around 10/11 in the Aus Open 4th Round. I think he has too much quality and fight for his countryman and have played up some Cape tribulation profits.

Big Saturday Fancy

Evening All. Have been looking at tommorows form and there is one horse at a price that really stands out

14.50 Doncaster - Cape Tribulation at around 13/2

This horse looks a massive price for me. He had some incredibly smart bumper form, so much so he was even campaigned on the flat where he was good enough to win a maiden and achive a rating in the mid 80's- no mean feat. He looked a smart recruit to hurdles when bolting up at Uttoxeter and despite a little setback will be primed for this. The competition is interesting. The form of Junior is there for all to see-he generally finds one to good. On Raglan Road is already becoming frustrating after 2 short priced defeats. As for Gullible Gordon, if he was trained by anyone bar P F Nicholls, he would be 25/1. I really like this Cape Tribulation and will be going in big each way as I really like the chances of this for a place at worst. Get on it....Get on it LARGE!

Saturday 24/01

Think I've picked out a number of good bets on Saturday's football that will win us some more pennies.

Grimsby v. Rotherham 8/5 Ladbrokes

Rotherham are in a false position in the league due to their point deduction - they sit 19th but without their deduction would be in a playoff spot with games in hand over some of the teams around them. Grimsby are awful, just awful. They've won only 3 of 24 league games this season and their home record reads 1-4-6. They also have the worst goal difference in League 2.

Everything points to Rotherham. They have good away record (5-4-3) and form having scored 3 goals in both of their last 2 away games. This may be near on a max bet for me at a big price.

Queen of the South v. Partick Thistle 8/5 bet365

Another decent price here for a team that have been underperforming of late. QoS sit 2nd from the bottom in a tight division where a few wins can spring you up 5 or 6 places easily. Partick are in 3rd but aren't considered a title challenger and have a poor away record (2-2-6). Home advantage is key here and QoS have beaten Partick 2-0 twice at Palmerston in 2008. I predict a similar result tomorrow.


I've picked out some other selections for tomorrow too but don't time to type up much at the moment. Dom'll kill me for all these away selections...

Aberdeen v. Rangers 17/20 VC
Hartlepool v. West Ham 5/6 VC
Blackpool v. Birmingham 6/5 Betfred

Good luck all.

Scott

Get On It, Get On It Large

Blackpool Boy posted a video from this guy on his blog a week or so ago and it was real comedy - hope he's back for this year's festival. Here's one, watch....

Pub Poker (Again)

It seems that nearly every hostelry worth its salt is jumping on the poker bandwagon here in York. Alongside the regular quiz nights, curry clubs etc etc, it seems there is a poker night in a pub near you. And it's not just the local boozers which are offering a weekly hold 'em tournament, so too are the city centre ones. Just off the top of my head, I could attend a poker night at no less than fourteen different pubs within three miles of my front door; and could attend one on any given evening from Sunday through to Thursday.

Although it is almost a given that the standards of play, equipment, knowledge of rules etc etc will invariably vary from poor to horrendous; it seems now that the provision of a cheap live game of poker has never been more accessible for the casual player. Although I had a mixed personal response to the last pub event I attended; I have decided to give another event a try, which is to be this Wednesday at the Golden Lion in York city centre. I used to go to school with the landlord, Ben, who is also TD for the evening. With this being their first event, I'm hoping to be able to offer some help and advice. Who knows, maybe I could get on the gravy train and help with the weekly tournament in return for a few free jars.

Full report (and possibly pictures) will come following the event.

Thanks for reading,
Mountain Man

Football 17/01

Could do with a winner today, not had much joy of late...

Blackburn v. Newcastle 11/10 Extrabet

Extrabet are the only place that still goes odds against on Blackburn here. Blackburn seem to have recovered some form under Allardyce and have had decent home form under him (3-0 v Stoke, 2-2 v Man City). Newcastle's poor away form reads 1-4-5 and this coupled with the fact Blackburn have won the last 4 games between the sides makes this a stand out bet for me at this price.

Hibernian v. St. Mirren Evens bet365

Perhaps a surprising bet as St. Mirren are perhaps the form team of the SPL but Hibernian have the ability to see them off today at a decent price. Hibs home form reads 4-2-4 whilst St. Mirren have lost 6 of 10 away games. Small stakes but worth adding into any accumulators.

East Stirling v. Forfar 6/5 bet365

Thought East Stirling would be slight odds on here. They have a very decent home record 6-0-4 despite losing their last two at home. Prior to these defeats they had won 5-0 and 5-2 at home. East Stirling are coming off a two week break and I expect them to come back fresh and win comfortably against a Forfar side who have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 away games.

GL everyone, post your selections in the comment box if you get a chance.

Scott

Southwell

Wow, what an awesome little track. The catering facilities were awesome, the staff were ridiculously good and the only thing letting it down is a lack of a big screen outside, as it meant only watching the final furlong, or watching it inside. The drink is slightly cheaper than any other place I've been to as well.

I wanted to write some analysis up before I went but I never got chance. I fared pretty well anyway, 2 points on Back In The Red in the opener (3/1, won), 1pt e/w Bienhereux in the second (15/2, placed), 0.5 pts e/w Sea Cliff in the third (won at 5/1 beating the very short priced favourite), 0.25 pts e/w novelty bet on Trick Or Two at 4/1, lost to a massively gambled on horse (12/1 into 7/2), 1 pt e/w on Magical Song in the next, which came second at 5/1 (I still have the slip in my pocket, having forgotten to claim it - wonder if I can get that back!), no bet in the next and Triple Axel in the last, 1.5 pts to win (came third). Total profit: 10.70 points.

I then got wasted in Nottingham with my pal that I met up with. He also had a decent day, with two winners (including the drifting Charlotte Grey at 9/1 - think SP was 12/1!) and I reckon he won more than me.

Scoop!

One hundred and eighty!

So i went on a shit holiday for a couple of days and haven't been online much. I think i've almost forgotten how to use t'internet!

But one good thing is that I've been getting into the darts championship going on, and I've really warmed to Darryl Fitton. At the moment he's favourite at 3.9 (betfair).

I liked watching him play and was always rooting for him, perhaps because he had to come back from behind to win in an underdog style. I love underdogs.

I also enjoyed watching John Walton, somebody who won the championship in 2001 and has made some sort of unexpected return as far as I'm aware.
He is the longest price there, at present 9.8.

Watching them play, I was impressed by the constant top scoring quality of Fitton as well as all-round quality displayed by Walton. If you've been watching, some of the players (including Fitton) haven't been performing very well, with some messy games.

A lot of the players looked pissed off, and I think its because of the heat of the Lakeside venue putting them off.
They also look like they are under a lot of pressure most of the time, so in my opinion having someone who will not crumble is important.
This applies to Fitton (came back from behind twice under pressure), and Walton - because perhaps he is not expected to win, so there is no pressure on him at all.

What excites my loins even further is that these two are on opposite sides of the draw meaning we can potentially see both my bets into the final for a win-win situation.

For these reasons I am inclined to enjoy a little flutter on these two.

Is anybody watching the darts?

Scott - we must have a game soon!

Friday Yankee

Now I'm not normally one for mutiples but I have the feeling Malcolm Jefferson is going to have a good day tommorow at Kelso and has four massive chances.

12.40 - Mcmurrough (around 3/1)
13.40 - Issaquah (around 7/4)
14.40 - Moscow Catch (around 5/4)
15.40 - Quannapowitt (around 5/2)

So you may think the prices aren't great but I really think there is a big chance that he could have four winners. These are all really progressive, unexposed horses. The odds of all 4 winning are around 86/1. I shall be placing a nice little yankee and expecting some sort of return. Even a couple of winners should mean we get most of our cash back and 3 would see a nice profit.

Back to betting

I’d like to start my first post of 2009 by offering my congratulations to Derby County. As much as I hate them, beating Manchester United in the League Cup semi final first leg is very impressive. Good luck to them and what a start for Clough Jr.

I had my first bets in an age today and had a decent scoop thanks to odds on favourite River Kirov, who I have seen a bit of lately (I love my job) and he’s looked impressive. He obliged again today, four-timer complete.

I’m not one for backing favourites on the artificial surfaces usually, but tomorrow’s bets will make it three in two days!

I really like Silvanus in the opener at Great Leighs. Full brother to a winner of a 6f Listed Race in Ireland, he has a bit of form on the all weather, with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd from five runs. The win was in better company (over today’s 5f trip) and the second place last time out (nine days ago) was over six furlongs, which may have been asking a little too much, but he wasn’t disgraced, losing only by a neck to a very consistent polytrack sort. Today’s race should be run more to his liking and off the same mark, over what looks to be his preferred trip, I can’t see much beating it. Three points all the way please. I shall be trying to get a bit better than the 2.71 on offer just now, but I can’t see me getting much better.

I also like the looks of Minotaurius (2.55 Great Leighs). Karl Burke’s young horses have a good record when making their second appearance of the season (something I learned last year) and this one turned out for seasonal debut at Wolverhampton on Friday, where it finished second. Although she had no chance with the winner, she was running over 6 furlongs when her best work has been done over the minimum, such as her second place (1/4 length) at Ripon in the Summer, at a class higher. I think it showed, when she tired half a furlong out. Tomorrow she returns to 5f, which appears to be a big plus. My only concern with this one is the pedigree. By Sadler’s Wells, whose progeny doesn’t have great form on the all weather, you’d have to be a bit concerned. That said, there’s not much else to be worried about in the field in terms of breeding, so I’m not THAT bothered. She took to it well enough last time out anyway – one point to win please, assuming I can get the forecast 6/4 or better.

The bad news is that GG.com have tipped them both :(

5 a side woes

Over the last couple of years I've been playing a fair bit of 5 a side. I'm not particularly good but work hard and tend to get my share of goals -2 or 3 a game........that is until the last 6 weeks.

I must I have played around 7 games with a grand total of 1, yes read that correctly, ONE goal. You name it I've hit it- back wall,side wall, ground, team mates and all. The back of the net is proving a harder thing to hit. Its having an adverse effect on the rest of my game now too. It's in my head now and I have a monkey on my back. My famous rage even came out 2 games ago and that ended with our match ball being stuck in the Soccer World roofing.

I need your help here-how can I get back amongst the goals?

Black Day for Blackpool

Apologies for the Blackpool tip yesterday - the site I use for English football team information made no reference to the fact that Blackpool had lost 8 players due to their loan contracts coming to an end! In fact I vaguely remember the words "full strength" being mentioned. Cunts. They lost 1-0 to non-league Torquay.

Anyway, hope someone got some action on Hamilton after they scored twice in the 2nd half to beat Aberdeen 2-0. Should probably stick to the Scottish football where I know the info I get is good.

A good win for my team Dundee yesterday against Dunfermline. Shock it was 1-0. We have the best defense in Scotland but are the lowest scorers in Britain!

In other news I promised the girlfriend I would do some sort of diet thing with her for a month where I get to eat no sweets, crisps or takeaways as well as exercise frequently. Going to be an absolute killer but kinda need it cos my weight keeps creeping up.

Added two more bets on Big Brother that I think I'll be able to lay off later to make guaranteed profit. Tina Malone @ 18.5 and Tommy Sheridan @ 46.

GL with whatever.

Scott

Energy Drinks (and bets)

I probably shouldn't drink as many energy drinks as I do but whatever blah - staple diet of a poker player. So anyway, I nip into Tesco on my break in work for a pick me up because working is shit and the sugar makes me zone out for a bit I think and discover the disaster of them not having any of my favourites in stock (more on those in a bit). Was angry.

Then I spot this shiny can of Irn Bru 32 sitting there, it's something like 79p so I take the gamble. Like most of my recent sports bets this gamble didn't pay off, the stuff is ridic bad and should be disgusted to call itself an energy drink. It tastes like flat irn bru ffs.

So this is basically a moan about how this stuff is shit and a warning to stay clear of it at all costs. I'd probably take a bottle of piss over this stuff if it was a toss up.

My favourite energy drinks:

1. Relentless
2. V
3. Lucozade Original

Nothing beats Relentless, nothing. Have I missed anything?


Some selections to get on this weekend:

Torquay v. Blackpool 11/10 Ladbrokes

This fixture jumps out at me as of course Torquay are a non-league side and Blackpool turn out in the Championship. Blackpool have a decent away record, 4-5-4, in a league where most teams can beat each other and home advantage is vital so we shouln't be put off by them travelling for this fixture. Torquay will obviously be up for the game with it being the FA Cup but I expect Blackpool to have a little too much quality and come away with a 2-0ish victory.

Hamilton v. Aberdeen 11/4 Coral

I pointed out the 11/4 available on Hamilton on The Gambler's blog yesterday and it seems it has been snapped up everywhere with the exception of Corals. Aberdeen's first team squad have been hit by a massive flu bug and there was rumour that they may ask for a postponement. Key players like captain Scott Severin will miss out and those that do recover are unlikely to be at their best. Hamilton's home form has also been decent of late with wins over St Mirren and Kilmarnock in their last two home games.


One last thing, have a bit on Michelle Heaton on Celebrity Big Brother. Looks like you can get >30 on Betfair.

Good Luck.

Scott.