Saturday, 2 January 2010

Twenty Ten ? Or Two Thousand And Ten ? You Decide ...

Firstly, I hope all readers and contributors to this blog enjoyed a peaceful and profitable Christmas and New Year period. I guess I had a decent one really, and am now looking forward to the year ahead, and will be glad to be restoring a schedule and routine again in the coming weeks. Man cannot live by turkey alone !

Also, it has to be said that Dom and Scott have more or less single handedly been keeping this blog going for at least the last six months, with little else from the remaining contributors. On my behalf, I apologise for my lack of commitment. Buying a PS3 and getting addicted to FIFA 10 from mid October certainly hasn’t helped the cause. However, you can’t live in the world of console gaming forever, so I thought I’d put a piece together, just out of interest really looking back at the noughties in the world of sport and entertainment, with one or two other bits thrown in for good measure. (O.K., it’s not going to earn you any money, but at least you won’t lose any like anyone following most of my tips will last year !)

“Let’s all meet up in the Year 2000. Won’t it be strange when we’re all fully grown ?” Sang Jarvis Cocker on Pulp’s hit single in 1995. I was 15 then, it seemed an eternity away to 2000, now we're ten years the other side of it. It doesn’t take a mathematician to work out that at the coming of the new Millennium I was at the end of my teenage years. What excitement lay ahead ? Well, we had the musical delights of the “Baha Men”, televisual treats such as “Big Brother” and sporting moments such as Paula Radcliffe relieving herself in a gutter. But for every “Afroman” there was an “Arctic Monkeys”, each “Naked Jungle with Keith Chegwin” there was a “Shameless”, for every “Winston Bogarde” there was a “Christiano Ronaldo”. I hope to prove that the “noughties” were not quite as bad as everyone I have spoken to recently is making out, but that’s not to say the likes of “Daphne and Celeste” will be escaping lightly !

The “noughties” put “Chavs” and “WAGS” centre stage. We heard of “Carbon Footprints” and a “Credit Crunch”. Bin-Laden, Bush and Blair stole the political headlines, while Tennant, Cowell and Goody took the lion’s share of the limelight in the entertainment industry. In sport, the likes of Beckham, Flintoft and Wilkinson hogged the back pages. Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 took a new generation of console gaming to heights which would have been unthinkable twenty years earlier. And while the kids were gyrating round the lounge on their “Wii”, the grown ups too were immersed in the world of gadgetry, with Sat Navs, Hair Straighteners and Blackberrys to keep them amused ! It was a decade of celebrity and indulgence, much like the eighties, but actually in a good way.

I’ll take this opportunity to take a brief look back over the decade which is affectionately referred to as the “Noughties” over the next couple of weeks in a series of posts. Firstly, let’s go back to the eve of December 31st 1999, where it all began. Or was it about to end ?





Thanks For Reading,
Mountain Man

Thursday, 24 December 2009

Boxing Day Bets

Couple of quick Boxing Day Bets.

Boylesports are doing their bit to help us pay for Christmas, by offering 13/8 about Billy Sharp scoring anytime for Doncaster at Coventry. Ridiculous.

Coventry aren’t the best side defensively anyway, but they have a few injury problems at the back, including ex-pig centre half Richard Wood. On loan Blade Billy Sharp has scored nine goals in his last ten matches, including one in each of the last six games. The way Doncaster play suits him down to the ground and the probable return of midfielder (and probably Donny’s best player) Brian Stock will be a boost on the creativity front.

Odds against him scoring, despite his form? I’ll have some of that.

The other standout bet for me, is Newcastle. I’m not normally a fan of away sides at odds on, but this really will be buying money. Wednesday are in turmoil. There’s local rumours that they’re on the verge of going bust. Their joke of a chairman is still arguing with fans on internet forums, the caretaker manager played exactly the same side in his first game, as recently sacked Boss Hog Brian Laws played in his last game and they have failed to score, let alone get a point, in their last SIX matches, against such footballing giants as Doncaster and Reading.

Newcastle have only conceded twelve times this season and have kept five clean sheets in their last six matches. They score goals for fun and let’s face it, Wednesday are shit.

Newcastle could put the reserves out and win this by a couple. 8/11 widely available, 1.77 on the exchanges. Fill your boots, dip your bread, put the wife on it.

Have a good day tomorrow, ladies and gents.

Oh, Kauto Star will make history by winning his fourth consecutive King George, but is horrendous value at the price. Watch the race and enjoy a piece of history. I'm still in the Denman camp for the Gold Cup, mind.

Tuesday, 15 December 2009

Oaks Final on Sky Sports

It's the Oaks Final at Wimbledon live on Sky tonight. Two of the dogs that I selected before the first round have made it to the final - Cabra Exclusive and Slick Sioux are both still big prices and looks like the bookies have discounted them but I'm hopeful of getting the EW money.

Cabra Exclusive will likely lead the Final which will at least give me a little bit of excitement. However, Tyrur Liz has proved to be much better than I anticipated and looks the most likely winner from trap 6 - with the prices reflecting that at 4/6. I'll not back anything in this race and just hope one of mine can pull off the upset win. It does happen.

Sometimes I wish the greyhounds weren't on Sky as it makes me bet on every race for the sake of it and it's likely I'll do the same tomorrow unfortunately.

There isn't much I like at first glance with only T4 Yahoo Jamie in the 8:50 really making much appeal. It's 5/2 at first show and I expected it to be shorter after it ran 27:52 round the 460m in a trial last week. To put that into perspective, Eye onthe Storm (Derby favourite) ran 27:54 last week. However, trials and races are different and there is quite a bit of early in the race so I'll be keeping stakes small.

Also likely to back:

7:40 - T6 Rio Ventura 7/1
8:00 - T1 Blonde Dee 9/2
8:35 - T4 Kinda Easy 7/2

For those with monies, Platinumlancelot and Eye onthe Storm should piss their respective races but both odds on and double pays even money.

GL.

Saturday, 12 December 2009

UFC 107: Penn v. Sanchez

Sick night of action ahead from UFC 107 in Tennessee as my favourite fighter Diego Sanchez fights BJ Penn for the lightweight title. I think he has the tools to pull off the upset and will more than likely be acting accordingly and taking some of the 23/10 available. Might have a nibble on Sanchez to win in a certain round, they are all 16s or 18s.

Think I've picked out a stonking bit of value in Lucio Linhares who is 11/4 with bet365. This is simply a crazy price imo. This is a big step up in class for him but he is a dangerous fighter and his opponent Palhares is no world beater in my eyes. Linhares should use his substantial height and reach advantage on his way to victory.

Other prices of interest are below and I will probably end up throwing them all in some crazy combo:

Kongo in R1 @ 5/1
Guida @ 7/4
Johnson @ 21/10

Friday, 11 December 2009

Bored

Just reading some old blog posts to pass the time. Some amusing stories, great tips and spectacularly poor ones.

Stumbled across this in a Scott post:

I've had a ridiculous league winners combo bet: on Man Utd @ 11/4; WBA @ 6/1; Dundee @ 5/4; Rangers (Scottish Cup) @ 15/8; and Hibs (without big 2) @ 7/1. I'll be ridiculously rich if they all pull it off!




That looks a nice bet, just now. Placing the same accumulator now, you'd be looking at best prices of 2/1 Man Utd, 5/2 for WBA, 4/11 Dundee, 6/4 Hibs and Rangers is still 15/8.

Scott's bet returns £1,358.44 to a £1 stake. The current odds return just £102.91 to the same stake.

GO GO GO CAMBO! I expect a drink if that comes in.

Wednesday, 2 December 2009

Win It Back

Small loss last night on the Sky Dogs so I'm going to win it back on T3 Ron The Rat in the 9:25 @ Romford tonight.

And double it with T2 Bills Teddy in the 9:57.

But anyone reading this should 100% not touch these cos I seem to be on poor form.

EDIT: had a nosey at Harlow too.

Really like the look of T5 Negotiate in the 9:45. And also T6 Dainty County in the 8:45 race.

Tuesday, 1 December 2009

William Hill Oaks @ Wimbledon

This competition starts tonight at Wimbledon and I don't really have much time to write up a preview but just back these and you'll have the winner. Remember and check the post below for tonight's Sky dogs.

William Hill Oaks

Ardbeg Kate @ 14/1
Slick Sioux @ 25/1
Cabra Fly @ 33/1
Cabra Exclusive @ 40/1

Ardbeg Kate absolutely crushes over the 380m at Crayford but this is over 480m and only time will tell if it'll be as effective. A recent trial over 460m at Wimbledon suggests it will. I probably like Cabra Fly the most out of the other 3 and it has some fast times over the 460m and 480m at Wimbledon as well as faster recent times than Kate over Crayford recently - 33/1 is very big, get on.

Romford Dogs on Sky Tonight

So I'm chasing a little bit. A couple of bad weeks with my dog betting, coupled with a terrible Saturday on the football have left me licking my wounds a bit so hopefully I can turn things around tonight. Also, yesterday at the uni poker I managed to dust off £33 at a £1 rebuy - not a large sum, but fairly comedic.

7:40 - The opening race is at 7:40 and I've went for T5 Foyle Mayor at a bit of a price. This dog does a fair bit of sprinting and when over 4 bends tends to show very good early as witnessed earlier this month at Romford when he clocked 24:07 when beating Deanridge Flash. I think it'll make all here at 5/1. Tempted to also back T1 at 12/1 as if Foyle Mayor gets hit with trouble then it could be value.

8:00 - I'm going to be backing another 5/1 shot in the 2nd race in the shape of T3 Droopys Kirbee. Greedy Bridie was very impressive on Sky last week coming a close 2nd to the classy Midway Skipper and is a shortish favourite here but I think Kirbee can be too fast for him. Kirbee usually displays decent early pace but has been slow away on his last two starts - if he gets out tonight then he'll be a great bet. Last month Droopys Kirbee actually beat Greedy Bridie over this same trip. gogogogo

8:15 - Freedom Man is an even price favourite for the hurdle race and I obviously can't back anything at that price so I've plumped for T5 Cats My Boy @ 12/1. Cats can show early and has some decent times over a number of tracks.

8:35 - I did my studying on Sunday I think and picked out T5 King Lee as my NAP and was praying we'd get some sort of price on it but no joy as it's 1/2 but has about 4 lengths on the best of the rest and will piss up.

8:50 - T5 Brickfield Dream won me a minor fortune last year when winning the Coral Essex Vase at a massive price but failed to make the final this year when losing out in the semi-finals. He's my favourite type of a dog, a dog with super early. This thing can fly out and has a recent time which is almost 3 lengths better than anything else in the race. Raving Black, as always, will be a danger but 10/3 for Dream will fill our pockets.

9:10 - I'm hoping T1 Me Buddy can be our friend in the 9:10 with a dominant display where I think he can make all at 5/2. His last two races have been fast and a similar display tonight will see us collecting. T6 Fire For Effect can go very fast but is far too unconvincing at the traps for me to be backing.

9:25 - T1 Melodys Comet has raced over the Romford 750m track on 5 occasions and has won 4 of those. Tonight he should make it 5 from 6 at a shortish 9/4. Lorrys Options looks like the nearest challenger but has only won one of it's last 11 races - not for me.

9:45 - The showcase race, the Coral Essex Vase Final. I've a really good feeling for T2 Bournes Masons and was hoping for around 4/1 but it's in as the 5/2 favourite. It's got a good draw on Go Big Hitter's left and it's excellent early coupled with fast recent times make it a big bet for me. gogogogogogogogogogogo

Friday, 27 November 2009

Tits to beat Tits

Bristol City: get on and get on fast.

I got to work today and saw that the Titties are 23/20 with William Hill to beat Sheffield United tomorrow, which surprised me. I’d have had them even money at best, so I was even more surprised to see in the RP that most high street bookies are going odds against, the biggest of which was Coral’s 11/8 and that our price was basically the worst on the high street! The 11/8 has now been clipped, but you can still get a best price of 13/10 from Coral and you should do so.

Here’s why. United are playing like tits, that’s there for all to see. Last season we had the best away record in the league and the second best defence, but this year Blackwell’s lost the plot with a string of poor signings, coupled with terrible tactics and genuine bad luck in suspensions and injuries. Our form this year is shocking; we were bottom of the form table until we scraped a 1-0 win on Saturday to bottom of the league Peterborough. We weren’t great and if it weren’t for a crap penalty which Bunn saved, they’d have got a point. We are awful and you ought to be looking to lay us every single week until Blackwell (left) goes (more on this later).

Bristol City were also a bit ropey at the weekend, in losing 4-1 away at WBA. Overlooking that defeat to a decent side playing well, we have to go back to September 26th to get a defeat. They’ve held Newcastle to a goalless draw at St James’ Park in that time and in Nicky Maynard, they have a genuine goal threat. They’ve notched in eight of their last nine games (the one game being the 0-0 with Toon) and as we’re utterly awful, one goal is all they will need to score to see us off.

Historically we do okay against them, but only at home. We thumped them 3-0 not long back (but we had Beattie back then) but again, that was at the Lane. We haven’t beaten them at Ashton gate in the last eight attempts and you have to go back to 1971 to get a Blades win there and that was the year we won promotion to the old top flight (when we were actually pretty good).

We’ll likely be handing a debut to a new Goalkeeper (not good for an already shaky defence) and we’ve got some massive centre half in on loan from Fulham. If he plays, read as above. Our other central defensive options are the embarrassingly slow Jonathon Fortune and the embarrassingly awful Andrew Davies on loan from Stoke. I’m not sure if either of those will even be fit. Naysmith is still a couple of weeks away, Geary’s coming back from two years out injured and Kilgallon hasn’t been the same since the transfer rumours (and to be fair, he’s also carrying a knock).

If you pushed me for a correct score bet, I’d go 2-0 (9/1 widely available on the high street, better online) but that’s a little bit guessy and is more a gut feeling than anything else. The 13/10 about the win though, that’s just ridiculous. I can’t see how anyone can offer odds against, I really can’t. It just screams value. GET ON.

The other thing I’d like to draw your attention to is Victor Chandler’s “Next Manager To Leave Their Post” market. The atmosphere at the Lane is frosty and it’s getting to how it was under Robson, before the protests began. There have been a few minor protests already, though nothing serious. Blackwell is under huge pressure and rightly so, as he’s turned a side around from just missing out on automatic (and just missing out in a play-off final) to a side that look like they’ve never met each other but who now want to play hoofball. It is not sufficient to blame injuries, as he is the one who has sold all our fringe players (and some of our first team too) leaving us with a squad unable to cope with one or two absentees. It’s also him to blame for the ache in my neck, caused by watching horrendous hoofball. He has an excuse every week, which is not going down well with the fans, we'd rather see him man up and admit we're shit, before trying to set it right.

Still, there are other under-pressure managers out there, what’s so attractive about 7/4? Sturrock at 4/1 could be a better option? What swings it for me, is the takeover talk. There have been rumours now for months, that Red Bull were looking at taking us over. That could be dismissed easily enough, but Kevin McCabe has openly admitted that he is looking for outside investment and if you think about it, the goings on at the club over the last year really do point to a takeover. Why would a club with serious promotion aspirations, sell their best player to Spurs for four to six million pounds AND his ready made replacement for another two million? Why have we continued to sell the likes of Cotterill, bringing in loan players to replace them? The word “reprofiling” has been used from the day we lost in the play-off final. Why are spending money expanding the ground, when we won’t invest in the playing staff? We’re trying to make the club an attractive prospect for a buyer, by reducing the wage bill, getting the bank balance into the black, improving the ground and showing what a generally wonderful investment we are, with things like our World Cup 2018 stadium bid.

The clincher for this, is the appointment earlier this week of Trevor Birch (right). In case you don’t know who this chap is, he’s our new Chief Executive. What has he done in football? After a modest playing career, he got involved in accountancy and oversaw the Chelsea takeover (Abramovich), helped Leeds wipe their debt and prevented administration, before overseeing their takeover and was also lined up to appear on Southampton’s board, had their takeover gone through, which it didn’t. Can anyone see a theme here?

I guarantee our new Chairman, whoever it may be, will not want to watch ugly, losing football. That means the end of our favourite Keith Chegwin look-a-like. 7/4? Get on.

Saturday, 21 November 2009

Also...

I'm massively addicted to MMATycoon, a MMA Management Simulation game and this generally has taken up my entire life recently. Very addictive.

www.mmatycoon.com

And I'm off work with a fucked back. Sigh.

Saturday Blog

It's fair to say this blog is dying. It could be a time for a re-think about contributors to give it a fresh injection, I don't know. Opinions?

The highlight of my year occurred last weekend when I attended UFC 105 in Manchester - it was simply incredible and I will be going to every UK-based event in the future. The atmosphere was tremendous and we got there just in time for the opening bout and all 11 fights were great. There was some great KOs and the most impressive fighter for me was Ross "The Real Deal" Pearson who won the most recent Ultimate Fighter. He destroyed an experienced Aaron Riley and the fight had to be stopped when he kneed a hole in Riley's face - Pearson could actually be the real deal. He was also 7/4 which was ridiculous. I had some multiples on which included Bisping (11/10); Hardy (7/4); Ozipczak (11/4!!!); and Taylor (2/1) - I only really put Taylor in there as he is amongst my favourite fighters but unfortunately he was the only guy to lose.

I have an accumulator running on from UFC 105 to 106 which is this weekend and Tito Ortiz looks a good bet in the main event against Forrest Griffin at 5/4. Ortiz will come back strong from his lay-off whilst Griffin looked an embarrassing mess against Anderson Silva. Ortiz by decision for me, which is 5/2 with Paddy Power.

Dom asked me the other day when the Betfred Eclipse was. I had no idea but decided to have a look to see if I can get a bet on. Turns out the first round is tonight at Nottingham and the final on Thursday I believe. The field is real class with many of the 18 dogs going to be amongst the favourites for the 2010 Derby.

The first heat (9:37) is a cracker with the favourite for the Derby, Eye onthe Storm, running from trap 1, as well as the delightful Bandicoot Tipoki in 3 and Wise Thought in 6. Storm is short at 6/4 for the heat and Tipoki is a ridiculous 5/1 at the moment - I've invested accordingly, as although Storm is a rightful favourite Tipoki is a great dog and has great pace between bends 1 and 2 so I hope he can make the best of an unfavourable draw.

Heat 2 (9:52) features my selection for the competition, Windy Millar. Windy Millar is a great dog and if not for a bit of bad luck would surely have made the final of the Derby. He's a little unpredictable from the traps but when he gets out in front you don't often see anything go past him. He is a middle seed which is massively in his favour in this competition as most of the favourites are railers - this means it is likely, as it is in this race, that traps 1-3 will be full of railers giving Millar a nice run up the middle. He has to contend with the great Fear Zafonic and Jordansolutions in this heat but should progress and is the value in the competition at 16/1 with Paddy Power. He's value at 11/2 for this heat too.

I fancy Romeo Maldini in heat 3 (10:07) - he's the best wide seed in the competition and I may have a nibble at 12s. He's 9/4 tonight and should only have Lenson Bolt to contend with but can pick him off late.

T3 Blonde Playboy (9/4) in the 9:07 is also worth a bet.

Betfred Eclipse

Windy Millar 16/1 Paddy Power

Romeo Maldini 12/1 Various

Tuesday, 27 October 2009

St Leger Final @ Wimbledon

Tonight's greyhounds on Sky come from Wimbledon where the St Leger Final is the main focus of the evening. Again, I should have had this up a few days in advance so that someone might read it before the card begins, but never mind.

My selections contain a large amount of speculation but the reward could be huge and in the Final I've went with T5 Fraziers Clone @ a tasty 10/1. IMO this should be about 5/1 at worst so a bit of value in backing it. It has ran 41:18 and 41:13 in it's last 2 races and the only dogs to have run faster are the ones in T4 and T6. Fraziers Clone should get first run on these out wide as it has better early. I certainly don't like the fav in T3 at a stupid price.

Keeping this brief, but I really like T1 Jolly Poacher in the 9:10 @ 4/1. Has incredible early and has form over most of these at Oxford. Last time out at Wimbledon it looked like it didn't break well but that can be excused due to it being the dog's first look.

I like T3 Forest May in the Sky opener as I think it can deny the jolly a run to the corner and win at a price. And Eye onthe Storm should be a banker in the 9:25.

7:40 - T3 Forest May 7/1
8:00 - T4 Pine Isle 5/2
8:15 - T6 Barnfield Chubby 5/2
8:35 - T3 Grayslands Tiger 10/1 - should lead, shouldn't hold on but 10/1
8:50 - T1 Gas Hawk 6/1
9:10 - T1 Jolly Poacher 4/1
9:25 - T1 Eye onthe Storm 13/8
9:45 - T5 Fraziers Clone 10/1

I've got some other stuff to blether about but I'll do that later in the week.

GL,
Scott

Thursday, 15 October 2009

Sunderland Dogs

I'll keep this relatively short as no one is likely to read it before the races. It's the Northern Puppy Derby Final night at Sunderland with the spectacle race running at 9:45. It's all live on Sky Sports Xtra from 7:30.

Most opinions narrow the final down to the two inside traps and they are priced 7/4 and 15/8, but I'm taking a chance on the 5 dog, Killieford Fire, at 6/1 with Skybet. It should have the best of the early on the outer and looks set for a solo. In the first round of the competition it ran 26:85 with a clear run and neither of the favourites have ran quite that fast. I think T5 is the value in this final.

I wouldn't even be betting this week if I didn't get a winning double on last week's Sky dogs. Bower Surfer was part of that double and looked a beast of a dog. I'm happy to back it again in the 9:25 and I think it has the beating of the favourite, Raving Black. The only negative is that it is it's first look at the track but that is the case for most in this race. It's currently available at 7/2.

Borderknockabout is an A1 dog at Sunderland but I think it has a great shout against these open racers in the 8:50. It has the excellent early to lead these out wide and in it's last outing it broke 27secs round here. It's 5/1 in most places, get on.

My last bet is Sniper Petra (T3) in the 8:35. It's the fastest dog in the race and as long as it can avoid T2 early on it should be oioioi @ 9/4.

GL,

Scott

Monday, 5 October 2009

November 9th - Scoop Troop meet up?

Alright folks?

As you may or may not know, November 5th is my birthday and I've got a week off just after it, so that I can come up to Dundee and enjoy my missus and some old mates. As you lot are more elusive than Jack The Ripper, I decided the only way I'd get to enjoy some of you was if there was some sort of event on, where I can catch you all at the same time. DUPS is a no-go for me that week, as I'm nipping over to Glasgow on the Tuesday to see Eddie Izzard with Laura, so I had a look at what race meetings are on in Scotland that week. Sadly, there are none.

Carlisle however, is ony a couple of hours on the train and there is a seven race National Hunt meeting, kicking off at 12.50 on Monday November 9th. With it being considerably further south than the likes of Kelso or Perth, it offers the opportunity for Tim to join the fun, should he so desire. The journey from York to Carlisle is comparable in terms of time, to that of Dundee to Carlisle. I realise this is all unlikely to happen anyway, because you poofters have no sense of adventure, but I'm throwing it out there for you to consider.

If you booked it now, you could arrange transport there and back for a shade over £30, with a combination of train and Megabus. That's Dundee to Carlisle and back, for Tim and Will I'm not sure what transport costs would be like. For parties of six or more you can get a few quid off your entry tickets to the course, but even without that, they're only £12 for the Grandstand anyway, meaning your costs would be around £40 - £45. A winning bet of £5 at 9/1 in the opener and you've only food and drink to worry about anyway...

Consider it please, chaps. Let me know soon-ish so we can crack on sorting it out. If this is a total no go, it'd be grand if someone could come up with something similar. Perhaps dogs or something Scott? I'm in Dundee from Saturday night (7th) until Tuesday afternoon (17th). The only night I'm busy so far is Tuesday 10th.

In other news, Sea The Stars is a machine.

Take it easy fellas.

Sunday, 4 October 2009

Yo

I haven't played poker online in a while, maybe 2 months.

Boo. I wish I was good!

Saturday, 26 September 2009

Swansea vs Sheffield United

As you're probably all aware, I hate backing draws as I believe they're a poor long term bet, but I can't see any other result from United's trip to Wales today. I had a brief look at a few angles, including laying both sides, but I don't think laying either side represents any value.

There's no real head-to-head form with these teams. We drew in Swansea last time after playing terribly, with Morgan bailing us out at the death with a deft flick over the 'keeper that any striker would be pleased with and the Bramall Lane encounter was a better performance, though it was still tight; United winning 1-0 courtesy of a spot-kick. Prior to that, you're looking at league cup games and league matches from 25 years ago.

United had a hard match last time out, with the Steel City Derby as intense as ever and despite playing well enough to find themselves 3-0 up at half time, they sat back, invited Wednesday on and let them get back into the match, ensuring a frenetic and draining finish to the match.

Montgomery and Morgan, both absolutely crucial to United's campaign face late fitness tests and Kilgallon may still not be fully fit after his chest infection, which potentially leaves us with only on loan Andy Davies and just signed Jon Fortune as centre halves. It is this potential for disorder at the back which I believe will be our downfall today, as we discovered against Coventry the other week. With Kilgallon out, we had a defensive re-shuffle and despite scoring twice, stupid errors meant we shipped three goals for the first time in years and lost the game. I can see Swansea scoring from a set piece, coming about through our lack of organisation, rather than any brilliance on their part.

I can see us struggling for goals today. That may seem daft, as our record compares favourably with those in the division, but you simply have to factor in the opposition. Three against Wednesday included an own goal and a deflection off Henderson, Coventry are no great shakes and were comically bad defensively and a single goal saw off Derby, when we ought to have scored four. Jamie Ward's hamstring went in the Derby, so he'll be out for a few weeks and he's the only player who's looked like scoring of late. Based on this, I can't see us scoring more than one today.

Swansea's home record so far this term reads played four, drawn three. United have an excellent record on the road, one of the best in the league and I don't think we'll lose this game, I just question whether we've got the firepower to win it. I can see us scoring, missing countless chances and then allowing Swansea in, with Blackwell happy to take a point in what will be a tough encounter.

So although it's unlike me, I will be punting on the draw. Just a small stakes interest bet at a price that looks okay. 2.4 on Betfair and 9/4 with Coral are the best prices available. 1-1 (correct score) is only 6/1 on the exchanges, which seems a little stingy, so I can't really recommend it as it's no value, even though I reckon that will be the scoreline.

Swansea City vs Sheffield United
Draw
1 pt @ 2.4 (Betfair)

Saturday, 19 September 2009

UFC 103

UFC 103 is on ESPN tomorrow morning (3am I think) and I'll be setting my alarm for this. Had a few bets, nothing major.

None of Drew McFedries' last 9 fights have seen the 2nd round and I think tonight will be the same with McFedries winning. However, I can't find a round betting market for this fight so I'll just need to stick with the even money on offer at bet365.

Mirko Cro Cop is back in action tonight and the Pride veteran has some devastating striking and I'll be backing him to knock Dos Santos out in the 1st round with Paddy Power @ 5/1.

My final bet comes in the shape of Brit Paul Daley who is making his first appearance in the UFC and Affliction went busto. His fight with Kampmann could be a war and is an early contender for fight of the night. Daley is great value at 31/1o with Boyles.

Drew McFedries v. Tomas Drwal
Evens (bet365)

Mirko Cro Cop v. Junior Dos Santos
1st Round Victory
5/1
Paddy Power

Paul Daley v. Martin Kampmann
31/10
Boylesports

GL all,

Scott

Friday, 18 September 2009

WIZAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARDS!


FUCK OFF YOU WEDNESDAY BASTARDS! HOW DO YOU LIKE THAT, YOU FUCKING PORCINE CUNTS? COME ON YOU RED AND WHITE WIZAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARDS!

Wednesday, 9 September 2009

Tuesday, 8 September 2009

St Leger Preview

I haven't done a huge analysis of the race, but I have written a piece for some old work mates from my Texperts days, which can be viewed here. Well, it can't just yet as it has to be reviewed, but it'll probably be there Wednesday morning.

They've recently launched a new SMS based question answering service called Quext and their blog is still quite empty. If it's anything like Texperts, it'll be far better than the 118 people or AQA, but I haven't actually used it yet so I can't really comment. 82085 if you're interested, quid a chuck.