Weekend Football

The big game of the weekend in the EPL is of course the Man Utd - Arsenal clash at Old Trafford; with the bookies tending to slightly favour the home team over the free scoring Gunners. One to avoid for accumulator types, but tempting in a single / small stakes double is the draw, which is available for 11/5 with William Hills. Last season Arsenal took 4 points from the Champions, and I can see a share of the spoils being the result after 90 minutes tomorrow. If I was to stick my neck on the line I would predict a 1-1 scoreline. How contentious would an Eduardo penalty be to seal that one ?!

After giving the football betting a miss last Saturday after suffering from the usual "One result always lets you down" syndrom the week before. (Two trebles and a four-fold, all let down by my bankers; of course Villa at home to Wigan being one of them). I will however be enjoying a small tickler on the following tomorrow. Prices quoted are with William Hill. Short odds most of them, I realise; but I could really do with some points on the board rather than be too greedy !


Bolton - LIVERPOOL (8/15)
NEWCASTLE - Leicester (4/6)
BRADFORD - Torquay (EVS)


ABERDEEN - Motherwell (4/5)
Bristol City - MIDDLESBROUGH (13/10)
Colchester Utd - LEEDS (6/5)


Man Utd - Arsenal Draw (11/5)


Thanks for reading, and good luck all !
Mountain Man

Terrible Night

Britania Flyer (advised @ 33/1) came 2nd in the Brighton Belle tonight. It led as expected but got picked off and lost by a length or so. Still a great run for our money in a 4 round competition.

Plus, a pretty torrid night on the Sky dogs with only one or two short priced winners. In the feature race, the selection Farloe Reason came 2nd with Windy Millar winning. Minor result in that I narrowed it down to those two and knew the favourites would struggle. Right read, wrong result.

Betfred Select Stakes @ Nottingham

The Betfred Select Stakes is one of the highlights of the greyhound racing year where six dogs are invited by the Greyhound Writers Association to run a one off race. The Stakes has been ran since 1952 and tonight's renewal at Nottingham, live on Sky Sports, looks to be a cracker. We have two Derby finalists in Fear Zafonic and Farloe Reason, as well as flying youngster Bandicoot Tipoki. The impressive Windy Millar, Cabra Boss and Crown Rover make up the six.

Bandicoot Tipoki (11/4) comes from trap 1 and has been flying recently winning 5 of his last 7 starts, including winning the Steel Cup at Sheffield. However, my worry has to be at the start with Tipoki as he has missed his last few breaks aswell as encountering trouble at the first. Granted he has still went on to win but this is a step up in class and he can't afford to give many of these a length or two at the start. Look out for Tipoki's pace between the first and second bend, very impressive.

Fear Zafonic (5/2), in trap 2, was the Derby favourite throughout but was caught on the line by Kinda Ready in the final. FZ much prefers trap 1 which was shown throughout his Derby campaign and he really struggles to dominate races from trap 2. This coupled with the fact that FZ has only had 4 solo races since May cast major doubts over his claims in my opinion.

Farloe Reason and Windy Millar come from T4 and T5 respectively and it is from these two that I see the winner coming. Readers of this blog, all 3 of you, will remember I tipped Farloe Reason for the Derby and he gave us a great run at 33/1 where he made the final to secure the e/w money. I can see Farloe Reason just getting the best of the early in this battle and I see him holding off Millar at the corner and once he gets in front he is very hard to pass. Farloe and Millar have both carded 30:05 over this trip in recent trials which is faster than both the favourites.

Crown Rover in trap 3 usually prefers a slightly longer trip and should be outpaced early whilst Cabra Boss in 6 is a good dog but has been carding times a good 4 lengths slower than the selection recently and I can't see him finding that tonight.

The rest of the card looks likely to be very enjoyable tonight with a sprinkling of class dogs. Gabba Gabba Hey, who I've tipped unsuccessfully in recent weeks, runs again and I'm giving him another chance as I think he is a classy type who likes to go past dogs on the longer trips. I seem to have picked alot of dogs from T6 so it may be an idea to look at the trap challenge but not sure we'll get a great price. I think I've found a piece of stonking value in the 9:10 race where Swift Blade can be backed at a massive 33/1. This is due to the excellent Wise Thought running but Swift Blade is a strong running type who finishes very strongly and is worth an e/w punt. He's 10/1 on Betfair without the favourite.

Here is my selections for every race live on Sky, with the best price currently available....

7:40 - T6 Droopys Taffy @ 7/4 Betfred
8:00 - T6 Mario Gomez @ 4/5 Betfred
8:15 - T6 Ten Large Down @ 9/4 Various
8:35 - T6 Gabba Gabba Hey @ 9/4 Various
8:50 - T4 Magna Flintoff @ 2/1 SkyBet
9:10 - T4 Swift Blade @ 33/1 SkyBet
9:25 - T3 Midway Skipper @ Evens Betfred
9:45 - T4 Farloe Reason @ 4/1 Various

GL all,

Scott

Coral Brighton Belle - Britania Flyer

http://thescooptroop.blogspot.com/2009/08/coral-brighton-belle-hove.html

Britania Flyer (advised @ 33/1) made it through to the final of the Brighton Belle at the weekend after finishing 2nd in its semi-final. The final is on Thursday where the live greyhounds are from Nottingham but hopefully they show this race too. Looks like it is going to be about a 7/1 shot in the final but I'll be hopeful it can lead and stay. All will be clearer when we see the draw but according to Oddschecker there are only 5 dogs remaining so something must have pulled out so this could have an effect on things.

Off work all this week but bills are crippling me so pretty skint therefore gambling will probably be kept to a minimum.

Scott

Nunthorpe Preview

I couldn’t let York’s Ebor Festival pass without writing something, so I’ve decided to preview the feature race of the final day, the Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes. This looks a decent renewal, with three previous winners of the race lining up alongside the highly thought of winner of the Norfolk Stakes, Radiohead (above). The race is one of few opportunities for the two year olds to take on their older counterparts and it is Brian Meehan’s chestnut colt representing the young guns tomorrow, in a field of seventeen.

Taking my usual trend based approach, the first thing I notice is that Group form seems important, with eight of the last ten Nunthorpe winners having won a Group race, the other two having finished runner up. Mythical Border and Excellerator can be ruled out using this trend.

I should point out that I’ve excluded last year’s race for “last ten winners” purposes, as it was switched to Newmarket due to the flooding at York.

The age range of the last ten winners varies from two to nine years old, but Bahamian Pirate, the nine year old who took the Nunthorpe in 2004, is the only winner of the race older than six since the race was moved to York in 1980 and it could be argued that 2004 was a weak renewal anyway. There have only been a couple of winners in that same time period aged two and a couple more aged six. One of the six year olds was Borderlescott at Newmarket last year, which we are excluding anyway. So of the renewals run at York, 86% of winners were aged three to five, allowing us to chalk off Reverence, Tax Free, Benbaun, Borderlescott (above), Dandy Man, Mythical Flight, Moorhouse Lad and Radiohead.

Current form is also important, as half of the last ten Nunthorpe winners won their previous race, with a further three making the frame last time out. Using this trend, we can eliminate Equiano, Amour Propre, Look Busy, Ialysos and Art Connoisseur, leaving us with just two – Kingsgate Native and Captain Gerrard.

If I had to pick just one of these two, I would plump for Kingsgate Native (right). Admittedly it’s the favourite (best price 11/4, William Hill) and that might seem a little cowardly, but half of the last ten winners of the race have been favourites, with a further three coming from the front three of the market. The other two were priced 12/1 and 16/1 so it’s clearly not a race for shocks, which counts against 40/1 (Totesport) Captain Gerrard, but the other factor is the draw, as stalls 1-8 have provided seven of the last ten winners and the jolly is drawn in seven, whilst CG will break from 14.

However, I don’t have to pick just one. Quite a few times now I’ve written previews for the blog and whittled it down to two, before choosing the wrong one, much to my embarrassment. Captain Gerrard was only beaten a length last time out by Borderlescott, who won this race last year (admittedly at Newmarket) and has won over course and distance. 40/1 does seem to be too big, so tomorrow I’m going to back Kingsgate Native AND have an e/w saver on Captain Gerrard.

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes
Thursday 21st August, 15:25
Kingsgate Native
3 pts win (11/4 William Hill)
Captain Gerrard
0.5 pts e/w (40/1 Totesport)

As you may be aware, I went to the first day of the festival with the missus and we had a good day out. As we had been in York for a few days before that, I'd not looked at any form whatsoever, so all stakes were kept to a minimum and we only had the one winner between us, when I backed Elusive Pimpernel at 4/1. Laura had a near miss with Hamish McGonagall, which she had backed each way at 6/1, but sadly there were no repeats of her 16/1 winner on her only previous race meeting. It wasn't about that though, I was there to watch Sea The Stars (we didn't bet in that race, obviously) who really is impressive and broke the course record in winning the Juddmonte International. Monster.

Nice to see the North beating the South in the football match that was organised in aid of the Injured Jockey's Fund. Dettori went from hero to villain, after opening the scoring for the South, but later missing what would have been the winning penalty in the shootout, as the North won 4-3 on penalties (3-3 in normal time). Great banter.

I do like York. I've been four times now and it's easily my favourite racecourse of the ten or so I've attended.

Apologies to Scott, who posted about an hour ago. Don't overlook his greyhounds post below this one.

Dom

Thursday innit

The greyhounds on Sky Sports switch from their more regular Tuesday for the Totesport Gold Collar Final at Belle Vue. It looks like a decent night's racing and I had a chance to read the RP on the trip back from Aberdeen today where I've been working. Not convinced I like Aberdeen too much and won't be rushing back after I finish there tomorrow.

Onto the racing, the final itself at 9:45 is a cracking race and picking the winner isn't easy despite a hot favourite in Crown Rover (2/1). Crown Rover comes from T2 and isn't guaranteed the best of it in the opening exchanges on the inside. There isn't much in it on the clock so if he faces trouble then he can easily be beaten. I'm going to take a chance on the sole wide seed coming from T6, Franks Lad. Franks Lad carded the fastest time of the competition in the semi finals and if quick away can win this. It surprises me that 5/1 is widely available so I'll be having a bit.

My NAP for this evening's card comes in the 9:10 679m race. Hillcross Legend comes from T5 and posted a fast time in a solo trial last week. That time is a good few lengths better than anything else in this in my opinion and with T4 and T6 not known for their trapping abilities we may see a nice clear run for Hillcross Legend. The 4/1 being offered should be enjoyed.

In the 9:25 Senga(T4) is currently 12/1 in a few places and I've got to have a bit of this because I believe it could win if it pings.

I've a few other fancies for Belle Vue and I also had a look at the Hove card and will be backing a good few for interest and hope to make a decent profit.

Belle Vue

8:35 - T1 Highview Rocket @ 5/1 Paddy Power - WON
9:10 - T5 Hillcross Legend @ 4/1 Ladbrokes - 4th
9:25 - T4 Senga @ 12/1 Stan James - 5th
9:45 - T6 Franks Lad @ 5/1 Ladbrokes - 4th

Hove with predicted prices

7:46 - T1 Move Closer @ 5/1 - WON @ 6/1 oi oi, some start
8:18 - T5 Greenacre Josh @ 2/1 - 5th
9:24 - T1 Mineola Alex @ 11/4 - 6th
9:41 - T5 Pacific Number @ 6/1 - 2nd
9:57 - T2 Linwood Whisper @ 6/4 - WON @ Evens
10:13 - T4 Festival Bound @ 6/4 - WON @ Evens
10:30 - T4 Sparklee Charlie @ 6/4 - 4th

GL all

Scott

Quick Dog Update

I've got Archaton Pine (125/1) left in the Irish Derby which I'm fairly happy with. It has pretty decent early and gets the trip. It won its 2nd round heat during the week so I'll be looking for it to go well in the 3rd round which is this week some time. Archaton Pine can't compete with the market leaders on the clock but with good draws and clear runs anything can happen. I had Wise Thought in this too but incredibly he was knocked out in a race where half a length covered the first 4 dogs and he carded a time that would have won most heats so that was a pretty much a bad beat.

Yesterday I tipped up Britania Flyer (33/1) for the Brighton Belle and I'm very happy with this bet as she won her heat in decent style to move into the semi-finals. Not entirely sure when the semis are but I'd be pretty confident she can make the final and then give me a good run for my money.

Planning on looking over all my selections in this blog and producing some records as I'm contemplating making up a staking plan which would allow me to increase stakes and dedicate more time to studying. I'm sure such records would show decent profits.

Scott

Coral Brighton Belle @ Hove

This greyhound competition starts this afternoon and I have a small fancy. Although no one is likely to see this to get on in time it's good for me to record my bets.

I can never say no to an early paced dog and Britania Flyer has the best early in the entire competition. She has the early pace to grab a length lead over most in this and with a clear run she can run decent times. She's carded 30.04 around Hove recently which is quite decent. Not much in the competition can run sub-30secs so all things shape well for Britania Flyer. Special Liberty is the jolly in this competition and she flew round in 29.68 a few runs back but has proved to be expensive to back since for me - looks like she needs to lead to run. Britania Flyer is available at 33/1 with Stan James, but is as short as 12/1 in other places.

I've also had a nibble on Wintons Rubi @ 50/1 which is also with Stan James.

Oh, and sorry for posting the world's worst football selections yesterday, lol.

gogogogo

Football, Football, Football

The top leagues in both Scotland and England kick off today after a break of nearly 3 months. Too long imo! My amateur season is also meant to start this afternoon but I've been hammered with a 4 match ban, furious!

I've had a ridiculous league winners combo bet: on Man Utd @ 11/4; WBA @ 6/1; Dundee @ 5/4; Rangers (Scottish Cup) @ 15/8; and Hibs (without big 2) @ 7/1. I'll be ridiculously rich if they all pull it off!

Onto today's action and I've started the season off with a number of selections which give us a decent amount of value. Hamilton visit Kilmarnock today and I have a feeling Kilmarnock will struggle this season. Hamilton performed well above expectation last season and despite losing star man, McCarthy, they will be looking to push on this season. They've strengthened a bit whereas Kilmarnock haven't spent a penny. I think Hamilton could be a stonking bet @ 16/5 with William Hill.

In the English Premiership, there is no way Blackburn are 14/5 (SkyBet) shots against Man City today and I'll be investing accordingly. Man City have a great squad now but I see them getting off to a slow start. Wolves also interest me at home to West Ham @ 17/10 with WH.

My other bet for today will be on Dundee away to Raith Rovers - Dundee are clear favourites for the 1st Division and should have far too much for recently promoted Rovers.

Kilmarnock v. Hamilton 16/5 WH
Blackburn v. Man City 14/5 SkyBet
Wolves v. West Ham 17/10 WH
Raith Rovers v. Dundee Evens Coral

GL all

Scott

Wimbledon Dogs on Sky Sports Tonight

It is Puppy Derby Final night at Wimbledon and once again we are treated to live greyhound racing on Sky Sports. There simply isn't enough greyhound action on TV in my opinion. I have just given the card a look over and will be backing something in every race for interest. I've picked out a bit of value so all it takes is for one or two winners to guarantee profit.

In the Puppy Derby Final itself (9:45), Deanridge Rage leads the market and is as short as 6/4 in places but I can see it losing to Blood of Kings from T3. It has a length to find on the favourite but it should have the best of the early to gain an unassailable advantage over the rest. The 4/1 available with Boyles is value, I've got it a 5/2 shot.

I think my bet of the night comes in the 8:35 in the shape of Useful Asset from T5 @ 13/2 with Stan James. Brimardon Star is a fast dog, as shown by a track record at Sittingbourne last time out where it showed uncharacteristic early, but it often gives itself too much to do and 5/4 is far far too skinny. I see T5 and T1 (7/1) in the frame for this one.

Other bets I like are Exciting Ant (T6) @ 13/2 with Skybet for the opening race at 7:40 as well as T5 Monis Pet in the 8pm which can be backed at 4/1 with Stan James.

Here is what I'm backing tonight with the current best prices, good luck to anyone else who backs anything tonight...

7:40 - T6 Exciting Ant @ 13/2 (Skybet) - 4th
8:00 - T5 Monis Pet @ 4/1 (Stan James) - 1st @ 5/2
8:15 - T1 Shell to Sea @ 8/1 (Various) - 4th
8:35 - T5 Useful Asset @ 13/2 (Stan James) - 3rd (early trouble, great finish, vul)
8:50 - T6 Cranham Star @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1st @ 6/1
9:10 - T5 Bomber Bailey @ 11/4 (Stan James) - KO'd
9:25 - T4 Ardbeg Kate @ 3/1 (Will Hill) - 1st @ 2/1
9:45 - T3 Blood of Kings @ 4/1 (Boyles) - 2nd

Irish Greyhound Derby, plus Sky Dogs Tonight

I'm sorry to bump Dom's excellent piece on this year's Coca-Cola Championship from the top but there is some decent greyhound action to talk about with the Steel City Cup final from Sheffield on Sky Sports at 9:45 tonight whilst the Irish Greyhound Derby starts tomorrow at Shelbourne.

The Irish version of the Derby is run over 550y which equates to a little over 500m meaning it is a slightly longer race than the English version. It's a finalist in the English Derby that I've turned to with my money. Wise Thought made the final in great fashion but couldn't succeed in the final. He's looked good in July when racing at Shelbourne with decent early sectionals and a fast 29.61 last time out. It's a bit short at 16/1 but as usual I think I've found some really good value in this competition. Archaton Pine is available at 125/1 with Stan James and if you fancy it on the nose you can have some of the 160 available on Betfair. The dog is a bit inconsistent but can be very fast out the traps and has the ability to post low times. It's the best value I can find and I'm sure it can go well in this competition. I've also had a nibble on Greenwell River @ 100/1 and Tyrur Bomber @ 100/1. Can get bigger for both on Betfair.

Onto tonight's greyhound action on Sky from Sheffield and I said last week in the comments box that I'd be looking to back Gabba Gabba Hey again and I get the chance tonight in the 8:35 race. Last week it just failed to get up when losing by a head but it'll come on for that run and this race is slightly longer so I think the 5/1 quoted is an excellent price. Get involved. I'm also going to back Magna Flintoff in the showpiece race at 9:45 because although Bandicoot Tipoki is a great dog it is too short at evens and Magna Flintoff can ping out and make all.

Selections:

Irish Greyhound Derby

Wise Thought @ 16/1 (Various)
Greenwell River @ 100/1 (Various)
Tyrur Bomber @ 100/1 (Various)
Archaton Pine @ 125/1 (Stan James)

8:35 Sheffield 04/08/09

T3 Gabba Gabba Hey @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

9:45 Sheffield 04/08/09

T3 Magna Flintoff @ 10/3 (Stan James)

GL everyone,

Scott

Championship Preview

I’m at a loose end and haven’t done any writing for a while, so here’s a Championship preview. It’s a tad epic, sorry.

Barnsley played a lot of good football last season and if Simon Davey had spent more time concentrating on matters footballing, rather than publicly mourning the loss of his star striker to injury, they would have stayed up far more easily than they did in the end. When they came to the Lane, they passed it about a lot and counter attacked well. In Campbell-Ryce they have a tricky, quick winger who’ll chip in with goals as well as creating them but they lack a real goal threat. Onome Sodje from York is not the answer and the loss of the statuesque German goalie Heinz Müller is a real blow. They’d achieve more under a more positive manager in my opinion.
Verdict: Relegation battle.

Blackpool are a poor side who, in my opinion at least, have only stayed up these last two seasons because there have been so many other poor sides in the division. Despite the appointment of Ian Holloway, who I like a lot, I really can’t see where the improvement is going to come from. Their only summer signing of note is the experienced Jason Euell, but you can’t see him being the difference between bottom half and top half of the table and he was hardly pulling up trees at Southampton. Only two Championship sides conceded more goals than Blackpool on their home patch last season, a record which will not be improved by the sale of Shaun Barker to Verdict: Relegation battle.

Bristol City look like being without want-away goalie Adriano Basso, who really impressed me last season. Dean Gerken has signed on a free, but he’s surely not the long term answer, although Lewin Nyatanga should be a useful addition to the City defence. The season before last, City rode the wave of their promotion and were on a high, reaching the play-off final, but last season they seemed to have been found out a little. This season, I can see envisage another backward step, unless they produce a quality ‘keeper from somewhere and add in a regular goalscorer. They will miss the physical presence of Adebola, who notched ten times last term to finish as their second top scorer.
Verdict: Mid-table mediocrity.

Cardiff City came to the Lane for a draw early last season and got it, in a physical, battling 0-0 draw. They looked solid and difficult to break down and they were nailed on for at least a play-off spot, before spontaneously combusting at the back of the campaign. With Heaton going back to Manchester United, they’ve signed the dodgy David Marshall from Norwich, who looked incredibly shaky for the Canaries at the Lane and who formed the backbone of the second worst defence in the league last year. Their other big signing so far this summer is Mark Hudson, the defender from Charlton, the side with the worst defensive record in the league last season! They have some talented attacking players, notably Ross McCormack and Michael Chopra who has made his loan permanent, but look ropey as anything at the back and I can see it being “as you were” for the Bluebirds.
Verdict: Play-off push.

Coventry City would be relegation material if it weren’t for their forward line. Leon Best, Freddie Eastwood and Clinton Morrison wouldn’t look out of place in any of the top sides in this league, but the rest of their side is just really poor. We drew with them early on last season despite having ten men for most of the game and conceding a penalty. They looked so poor, lacking a real cutting edge, despite the aforementioned names and they look even weaker this year, after releasing Mifsud and selling two key defenders, in Scott Dann and Daniel Fox. Similar to Blackpool, they just keep staying up because of the number of poor teams down the bottom end, but with the sides coming up looking a bit useful, they could really struggle this time out.
Verdict: Relegation battle.

Crystal Palace look to me as though they are going to struggle. They were not particularly impressive last season and Neil Warnock had to blood a lot of youngsters. You do wonder how much his heart is still in it, as he often spoke about retiring when he was still with United and a good few years have passed since then, with his side making no obvious progress on the field. Darren Ambrose should be a useful addition, though I’d rate outgoing winger Paul Ifill as better than Ambrose and in Stern John, they have a replacement for Kuqi, but again, I’d rate Kuqi higher than John. It’s going to take something special for them to improve on 15th place.
Verdict: Relegation battle.

Derby County are real dark horses this year. They struggled a bit last season, but they finished us off at their place when we were in our poor spell and when we beat them 4-2 at the lane, we never looked comfortable. How do you score four goals in a game and not feel certain to win? They played a mixed game, going long when needed but looking capable of passing it through you and that style of football is what gets you out of the Championship. I like Clough as a manager and with last season under his belt, his first full season in charge could ruffle a few feathers. With key players returning from injury and a couple of sensible additions this summer (Shaun Barker looks a good signing whilst Lee Croft gives them an extra attacking option) they have the makings of a top six side. They won’t win the league, but 25/1 is insulting and 8/1 for promotion, bearing in mind that includes finishing sixth and winning the play-offs, looks almost tempting.
Verdict: Play-off push.

Doncaster Rovers are a great little club. They really go about things the right way; they try to play good, passing football and I like to see them punching above their weight. In Wellens and Stock, they had a really good midfield pairing last season and if they’d got a 20 goal striker, they’d have been sniffing around the play-offs, I really believe that. They made us look like mugs at Bramall Lane, when we tried everything and couldn’t break them down, before resorting to hoofball – they made us look awful. The 2-0 win at their place flattered us too. The sale of Wellens will hurt them, but they’re never going to be able to turn that sort of money down. Unless they re-invest the money in a striker, the best they can hope for is to stay up again, but I can’t see them spending the sort of money required.
Verdict: Mid-table mediocrity.

Ipswich Town were no great shakes last season and I can’t see what all the fuss is about this term. To have them shorter than Sheffield United in the market is frankly bizarre, as they haven’t signed anyone of Earth-shattering proportion and if you look at the probable first eleven, it’s not going to strike fear into many people’s hearts, that’s for certain. The only striker they’ve got that I rate (Stead) wasn’t picked by Keane at Sunderland and their main strength is their solidity at the back, but big deal, many teams have that (including one Sheffield United). Bizarre. I think they’ll be one of a host of sides to flirt with the play-offs before finishing in an amazingly dull position, like 10th.
Verdict: Play-off push.

Leicester City look set to be the side that get promoted to the Championship and ride the wave, probably finishing in the lower reaches of the top half of the table. Their side is full of players with experience at this level, blended nicely with promising youngsters. N’Guessan is a real prospect and Hobbs has made his loan move from Liverpool permanent. Robbie Neilson and Richie Wellens are useful additions and crucially, they’ve held onto Matty Fryatt. On paper they look a better side than the likes of Coventry and Blackpool and it’s good to have them back at this level.
Verdict: Mid-table mediocrity.

Middlesbrough are too good for this division on paper, but it’s been a long time since they were at this level and you wonder how well they’ll adjust. Aliadiere, Tuncay and Mido are quality, but how will they respond to the lumps they’ll have kicked out of them, the fact that there’s far less time on the ball in this league and the trips to Plymouth and Scunthorpe on a cold, wet Tuesday night? I can see them struggling initially and I’m glad we’ve got them early doors while they’re still getting used to their new surroundings. If they win that opening game, they’ll walk this division. If they struggle and start slowly, questions may be asked, but I’m sure they’ll be winning games by September and I can’t see them finishing outside the top two.
Verdict: Promotion probables.

Newcastle United – it couldn’t have happened to a nicer club. If ever there was a blueprint for how not to run a club, it’s the barcodes. Stuck with a bunch of injury prone and past it mercenaries, with a wage bill the size of a pre-op Langham, they’re going to struggle to get started in this division. I’d back them to go down before I back them to go up and the odds of 6/1 for the title are hilariously short, but can you really see them outside the top ten in the division? Harper, Geremi, Martins… If they get to grips with the Championship, they ought to be running away with the title, but the pressure of expectation and a squad full of sulking prima donnas could spell disaster.
Verdict: Play-off push.

Nottingham Forest look as though they’re really going for it. They were poor last season, but they’ve chucked a few million at it this summer and are completely overhauling the side, bringing in no fewer than eight players. There’s a good blend of experienced Championship campaigners (Dele Adebola, Paul McKenna and Dexter Blackstock) and talented youngsters (Chris Gunter and David McGoldrick) but you can’t just piece together a side like that and expect it to click. They’ll stay up with ease having strengthened, but they might have to wait until next term to have a crack at the play-offs.
Verdict: Mid-table mediocrity.

Peterborough United are not a side I know a huge amount about, as they’ve won back to back promotions to get to this level. I hardly recognise any of the names in their squad and the ones they’ve brought in are mostly alien to me as well. The bookmakers have them priced similarly to the likes of Watford and Sheffield Wednesday, which suggests they have more than a chance of staying up, but they’re a complete unknown quantity, which will catch a few sides out with complacency. Will their players who have performed at the levels below the Championship be able to cut it on this stage? It’s difficult to say, anyone who gives a firm answer either way is basically guessing. I think he lack of experience at this level will be key, but in Ferguson, they have a forward thinking manager who is definitely going places.
Verdict: Relegation battle.

Plymouth Argyle were terribly inconsistent last time out, beating Coventry 4-0, drawing with promoted Birmingham 1-1 and yet losing 3-0 to Doncaster all in the last month of the season. To me, they look set for another struggle unless Sturrock can sort that out. The signing of Carl Fletcher and Bradley Wright-Phillips will improve their squad but the odds of 5/2 about the Pilgrims being relegated about right to me.
Verdict: Relegation battle.

Preston North End did well last season and they will have improved for that experience. They deserved their spot in the play-offs but being brutally honest, they were never going to trouble Sheffield United in that fixture and you would have expected any of the three play-off rivals to have comfortably brushed them aside. They will no doubt be sniffing around the play-offs again, but they have failed to strengthen this summer and have lost the influence of Paul McKenna, who played over 400 times for the club. You would feel that this season should be when they throw a bit of money at it and kick on, but they don’t seem to have done that and in standing still in this league, you’ll soon find you’re going backwards.
Verdict: Play-off push.

Queens Park Rangers were everyone’s favourites to go up last year, after the money men came in. It soon became apparent that they were totally awful and three of Billy Sharp’s tally of four for the season came in one game against them. Boy were they poor. Their side is full of average, journeyman players, such as Rowan Vine, Martin Rowlands, Mikele Leigertwood and Patrick Agyemang, while their new boss is also markedly average – Jim Magilton. They’ve just splashed £3.5 million on some Argentine kid that noone’s ever heard of and I’ll bet as much as you like that by the end of September, he’s fed up of Scunthorpe, Plymouth and Barnsley and he’ll be as much use to them as me.
Verdict: Mid-table mediocrity.

Reading are an interesting one, I don’t know what to make of them. They really pushed the self destruct button last season after a good time over the last few years under Coppell. He admitted himself he couldn’t work out was going wrong. Brendan Rodgers is a highly rated manager and it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on, as the pressure to succeed will be great. I used to be terrified of Reading but in beating them last season, we ended a very long run of poor results against them and I can honestly see the wheels coming off, they just don’t look that good on paper any more. They’re obviously going to be in the play-off hunt, but I don’t see them as the title contenders they once were.
Verdict: Play-off push.

Scunthorpe United will go down, I’m sure of that. They’ll get a few results here and there as anyone can beat anyone is this league, but looking at their side, there are only one or two left from their last campaign at this level and they don’t look any better for all the changes. Blades rejects Forte and Hurst are amongst their better players and League One really is about their level. It’s going to be a long hard slog for the Iron.
Verdict: Relegation battle.

Sheffield United were unlucky not to go up last year really, but sadly we choked on the big stage as we so often do. The truth is, if we’d been more clinical in just one or two games over the course of the season, the play-offs wouldn’t have been necessary anyway. Losing Naughton is a major blow, but the money has allowed us to invest in Lee Williamson and Ched Evans (whose stats don’t make great reading, I will wait and see before I proclaim him the new messiah as some Blades fans have done) and in Kyel Reid and Andy Taylor, we’ve added pace and attacking ability to our left hand side, which has been weak for some years now. These are young lads with potential to develop, which I’m happy with. Ryan France and Glen Little will give us further central midfield and right hand side options, assuming they can overcome their injury problems. Judging by the signings, we’re almost certainly going to play the dynamic 4-5-1 that served us so well last season, as we’ve hardly got any strikers but now have two wingers on each side, with Quinn and France able to play either wide or centrally, and Williamson, Montgomery, Howard and Hendrie all offering different options in the middle. Our strength last year was at the back, but that could be compromised with the sale of Naughton on the right, Naysmith missing the first three months injured and Paddy Kenny facing a ban of up to two years for failing a drugs test. For all the strengthening we’ve done in midfield (which was needed) I feel we’ve gone backwards in other areas and another play-off campaign sounds about right for us.
Verdict: Play-off push.

Sheffield Wednesday are not in the greatest shape. Brian Laws must be praised for the job he’s doing there, as they are punching well above their weight with their resources. They’re skint and their squad isn’t great, but they keep plugging on, threatening to make a late bid for the play-offs and never looking in danger of going down. Hell, they even beat us twice last season, though they were more than just a tad fortunate in the first of those two contests and Tudgay’s winner at the Lane was worthy of winning any match. In Grant, they have a quality young ‘keeper and Wood, Beevers and Spurr are great prospects at the back. The addition of Purse looks a sensible one and if Esajas, Jeffers and Sodje can stay fit, they might surprise a few. But the reality is they won’t - they must be the three most injury prone players in the division. They are going to be very lucky to hang onto all of their best players this side of January as they’re broke and if they don’t get a good start, they could be in trouble.
Verdict: Mid-table mediocrity.

Swansea City were over-hyped last season. Yes they pass it around and play pretty football, but how effective were they really? We were poor against them at their place and not much better at ours, but we had four points off them. They’re a wet dream for the purist, but realists like me need a bit of substance too and just five wins away from home is a shocking return for a side with genuine play-off aspirations. They’ll miss Scotland’s goals and new boss Paolo Sousa is inexperienced, hardly making much of an impact at Millionaire’s Playground FC before being sacked, so I’ve no reason to believe they’ll do anything much at all this season.
Verdict: Mid-table mediocrity.

Watford used to be a real bogey side for us, but now they’re more like our feeder club and I have no fear of them whatsoever. They are rubbish and their negative approach to their time in the Premier League was a real wasted opportunity. They’ve invested nothing in the playing staff over the last couple of years and they play in a crumbling rust bucket of a ground. I’m not sure why we keep signing their players to be honest, because they look for all the world like a struggling Championship side They look certain to lose Tommy Smith too, which would be a major blow to them, as I wouldn’t have a clue where their goals would come from if he left. If he leaves, I can see them going down, but if he stays, they’ll have a nothing season.
Verdict: Mid-table mediocrity.

West Bromwich Albion look the side best equipped to make an immediate return to the top flight after relegation. A sensibly run club, they would have been preparing for this season’s promotion push for the best part of a year. I would have fancied their chances more under Mowbray, as continuity is important and I question whether Di Matteo has the experience to get a side out of what is a very difficult and competitive league. Sure, he did well in his short time at the well-bankrolled MK Dons, but pretty football and money don’t get you out of the Championship. That said, they’ve kept their squad together and they look strong enough to mount a promotion push, with experience at this level (and higher) throughout the side.
Verdict: Promotion probables.

Here's my predicted table. I look forward to seeing how wrong this is come May.

Middlesbrough
WBA
===================
Sheffield United
Newcastle United
Derby County
Cardiff City
===================
Reading
Ispwich Town
Preston North End
Swansea City
Leicester City
Nottingham Forest
---------------------------
QPR
Bristol City
Sheffield Wednesday
Doncaster Rovers
Coventry City
Watford
Barnsley
Peterborough United
Plymouth Argyle
====================
Crystal Palace
Blackpool
Scunthorpe United

Weight Loss Bet Results

Well after just short of 3 weeks the weight loss bet has ended and resulted in me winning! Wooooo. Thinner and richer. Managed to lose 13lbs and I do feel better for it. Gav and Budge didn't really seem to try and pretty much just gave up, easy monies!



Was a friend's stag yesterday and we went clay pigeon shooting followed by a messy drinking session. I managed to fall over and smash my face.



The Irish Greyhound Derby starts this week so look out for a preview on Tuesday probably.

Scott