Saturday, 30 August 2008

Weekend Football

Anyone got anything that is jumping out at them this weekend?

I've only had a 5 minute look.

Sheff Utd look good at c.Evens at home to a very depleted Cardiff side. Cardiff missing nearly a full defence and ex-Dee Gavin Rae!

Dunfermline at home to Livingston look nice - 21/20 at bet365. Dunfermline will be up there challenging for the league this year and will have too much for Livingston at East End Park.

Value in Wigan (2/1) away to Hull and Dundee away to QOS (13/8) too.

Comment your selections.

Friday, 29 August 2008

Run Continues

Sorry I've not been posting much recently, things have been hectic including an awesome week in Tenerife. But I'm sure you don't want to know about my escapades there. My run of fortune on the betting front has shown no signs of a decline. I have incurred a few sore losses but taken them in my stride and I have continued the trend of winning and show an incredible 6 week profit (email me if you want to talk figures.)

I have withdrawn a fair amount of profits and have also split my bank between betfair,stan james and a new spread betting account with Sporting Index which I intend to start utilising. I am a novice to spread betting but look forward to using it to my advantage. I really can't tell you why I have suddenly become so successful and the longer it continues the harder it is to put it down to luck. My philosophy has been to go for few bets but big stakes. I detail below my bets by numbers over the last 6 weeks. I hope to review these bets next week and work out some ROI's etc and see where I have won/lost most. I am safe in the knowledge though that should I tilt much of my winnings has paid off my credit cards or is in a bank account!

150 Horse Race bets
1 Baseball
1 Cricket
2 Motor Sports
4 Football
16 Tennis

Wednesday, 27 August 2008


Hi all. It is painfully dull living in this village, roll on October. Despite being totally skint, I’ve done another “fuck it, let’s go racing tomorrow” but basically there’s very little on. Catterick is the closest meet to me, an hour and 45 minutes on the train and then a thirty minute bus ride. Still, gets me out of the house and assuming I don’t find a job by Thursday, the taxpayer will be part funding it anyway!

Before I kick on looking at the ponies, let me say this (I’ll say it now cos I know no cunt will read any further than this). Scott was asking me about Sheffield United’s chances tomorrow – don’t do it boys. There’s history between United and Udders and there’s history between the managers. Blackwell once punched Ternant after being accused of spying at the door of a team talk, when Warnock was in charge. They WILL raise their game, we WILL make changes (I can see 7 or 8 reserves coming in easily) and they did beat us at their place in pre-season. Scott – stop looking at poor value away bets or you will never get rich. Even if we win, 5/4 (Scott’s quote) is no value, it’s just not worth it.

Nag time. I don’t know anything about Catterick and I’ve certainly never been before. Google is my friend however and I’ve discovered that it’s left handed and sharp, so I’ll be trying to avoid gangly, long striding types that like going right handed, basically. Easy, this game. I’ll also be looking to avoid higher drawn horses, as the low numbers have an edge, up to 6 furlongs. Apparently on soft ground over 5f, higher numbers are the way forward, but the forecast going is good, so I’ll ignore that fact.

The opening two races are maidens and if I bet on these at all, it’ll likely be down to a market move. I really hate these types of races, will probably just watch and learn. There was one in the opener that tickled me due to my Indian chef connections, called Call Me Naan and the trainer is in form, but I recently learned that his nags do better on their second time out (backing all his two year olds £1 to win on their second start over the last five seasons would have made you nearly £100) – as I say, it’s going to need a market move.

15:20 - 1m 7f
Sorry to be the favourite backer, but it’s very hard to oppose the top weight and overnight 3.7 shot (Betfair) Let It Be. It’s won three on the spin, two in better company and although it’s up a stone and a half since it’s last win at the grade, the very useful Fromanangle Gillies has been drafted in, 7lb claim and all, which should help offset that. He’s won four of his last ten races, by the way. Mind you, that’s all jumps, he’s little form to speak of as a flat jockey, but he’s obviously capable and that claim will be invaluable.

Verdict: Let It Be - 2pts

15:50 - 7f
Dancing Maite looks to have strong e/w claims at a good price (9.0 Betfair at time of writing) and off a featherweight, the run at Wolverhampton a grade lower than this looks a nice piece of form. This looks a close race on paper and as I can’t choose between the market leaders, I’ll have a small e/w punt. If that price isn’t there in the morning, I’ll likely just watch.

Verdict: Dancing Maite - 0.5 pts e/w

16:20 – 5f
Trappy with a capital ‘T’. Loads look to have chances and I think the safe play seems to be Darcy’s Pride at a decent e/w price (9.6 at the time on Betfair). It’s well drawn, it’s not too high up the weights, it’s won over C&D, at a better grade and off a higher mark. If the price isn’t there, I’ll probably leave it alone. I may even leave it alone anyway.

Verdict: Darcy’s Pride - 0.5 pts e/w

16:50 - 1m 4f
I really liked the idea of China Pink in this one. Mark Prescott’s horses are known for being put in races at two that are far too short before being stepped up to a fairer distance at three, before knocking out a series of quickfire wins. It’s last was a touch too much and I feel this race is there for the winning. When he’s only sending one horse, you have to like it. BUT, it’s listed as doubtful by the RP and that means it’s probably withdrawn already. Gah! In her absence, I will have to go with Sabancaya. The overnight favourite looks like it has a chance in this weak race, but it’s never won at this distance and is 7lbs worse off than it’s last victory. Two starts ago it ran at this grade and off a lower weight and was beaten a length by nothing special. Sabancaya is still a maiden but has run quite well at a better grade and lost last time out by a length and a half to a horse that went on to cut up a better class of race by 11 lengths and is only marked up 2lbs for that effort.

Verdict: Sabancaya - 2pts

17:20 - 6f
Winthorpe made initial appeal as it’s last win (May) was only by a head, to a horse that’s done okay at a better grade than this but it’s getting on a bit now and hasn’t won a grade 5 since 2003. Turn Me On seems a consistent sort but has no 6f form to speak of, it’s only decent result was losing by not much last year, to nothing special at all. Mandalieu is fancied by ATR but I can’t get on with that view at all, it’s a troublesome ride who won last time out at a grade lower, but didn’t really beat that much. Guest Connections seems the pick of this close contest, with a plum stall #1 draw, off a career low mark, three wins over the minimum trip this summer and a return to 6f sure to suit. It’s also got some solid 6f form, winning a class 4 race (albeit in 2006) with three 2nds over 6f this year alone.

Verdict: Guest Connections - 2pts

Tuesday, 26 August 2008

Training for the IPO

Thats us booked up for the IPO - 6 of us staying for 4 nights in a lovely Dublin hostel.

In preparation for this I'm going to get my tourney game on. With a deposit into pokerstars I will start playing the 180 man $4 tournies. They are by no means deepstacked but at least it'll be some poker practice.

Not played a tourney in ages, can hardly remember what to do.

And as every other scheme I come up with has: expect me to go bust fairly soon through tilt and gambling!

Sunday, 24 August 2008

Some stuff

Having a nightmare with the internet just now. AOL is so gay. It's limiting me to speeds of around that of a 56k dial up modem. Upload speeds are 3x that which tells me my folks must have some account limit that they don't know about or quite likely, AOL are doing it on the sly. Either way, my dad acknowledges they are shit but flat refuses to change anyway - a sign of everything that is wrong with this country in my opinon. Everyone whinges about being ripped off, from fuel prices to shit broadband, but does anyone ever doing anything? The only reason I haven't called the cunts myself is because I need the master account name and password, which I don't have. Seriously, I have spent close to thirty minutes getting this post up. Joke.

Anyway, the point of the post was threefold. One: I had a decent day's betting today and the Scoop Troop profits are up to 59.46 points. Two: I am trying a baseball betting experiment tonight, so the all time highs could soon end. Three: I haven't played the A-Z game in ages, so I'm having a point on Minnesota Twins at 2.3 (Betmate) for my first shot at the letter "M". Although it's a tough game and they're rotating the squad (and I know not so much about baseball!) they seem a bit overpriced and I feel there's some value. Note, this isn't in one of my "real" bets.

Friday, 22 August 2008

Villans to be Heroes!

Stoke City v. Aston Villa

I've bitten Ladbrokes' 4/5 off instore.

Tuesday, 19 August 2008

Ebor Meeting, Day One

Well, it’s Day 1 of the Ebor meeting, how could I not write something? I was actually going to go tomorrow and Wednesday, for the Juddmonte and Ebor days, but I’m a bit skint in truth, having finally got round to putting that money for Dublin aside. I’ll be paying Kenny in the next few days and booking trains too. It’s only £7 to get in at the cheap seats (£7?! A Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 and three Class 2 races! York owns) but after travel, drinks, food and if I have a bad day’s gambling… I’d better not chance it. It would have been nice to finally get up close and personal with the likes of four time Group 1 winner Duke Of marmalade (pictured).

Not much to update on betting wise, since my last update I’ve had two 1 point each way bets, both of which just failed to place.

Right, let’s get stuck in. For those not clued in, the Juddmonte International Stakes (formerly the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup) is a 1 mile 2 furlong Group 1 race, for 3 year olds and older. Last year, Authorized & Frankie Dettori took it down, completing a double with the Derby, a feat that New Approach will be trying to emulate this time out. It should be a tasty race, because it’s been bucketing down in Yorkshire for fucking ages now and the ground will be heavy – on good ground this would in my opinion be a very straightforward race, but it’s going to a mudbath.

This race, on paper at least, is all about the top two in the market. Seven of the last ten winners had won a Group 1 before, two of the three that hadn’t had put in good showings in top company and the third won a Group 2 which later was upgraded to a Group 1. Basically, you ain’t winning this on a nag that hasn’t done it in Group 1 company. For me, this rules out nearly everything: Championship Point (best G1 run 9/12), Halicarnassus (best 4/6, behind Duke Of Marmalade), Red Rock Canyon (best 3/6, but well beaten), Rob Roy (best 2/8 but two years ago, too old to win this now, not won since 2006), Pipedreamer (best 3/12, behind Duke Of Marmalade) and Stubbs Art (best 3/15, but consistently held by New Approach).

Linngari looks almost certain not to run and Phoenix Tower, although he’s run well in this company with three Group 1 second places, he’s been held 4 lengths by Duke Of Marmalade and has never run on anything softer than good!

This leaves us with New Approach, Duke Of Marmalade and Multidimensional. The latter is interesting because he won a Group 3 last time out in the mud and has won a weaker race on soft ground. This should tempt the each way thieves (16.5 on Betfair as I type) but as I said before, trends suggest you need a good Group 1 run and his three results at this level have been 7/8, 9/11 and 5/12.

As we all know, because I’ve churned it out a million times now, the draw is important at York. The lower the draw, the better the chances, especially on softer ground. Although it is only a tiny positive, as both are drawn fairly centrally, Duke Of Marmalade is drawn in #5 and New Approach is in #7 of the 11 stalls.

In over 20 years, only four three year olds have won this race and just two of those have been in the last 15 years (Giant’s Causeway in 2000 and Authorized last year) while four year olds have taken down half of the last 20 renewals and six of the last ten. Surely this has to be a huge positive for the Duke over Jim Bolger’s nag?

Further positives for the Ballydoyle representative: favourites have won half of the last ten renewals and those that sit in just behind the pace perform well at the course, especially on softer ground. New Approach tried a, um, new approach in the Derby last time out, by holding up early. Those tactics don’t fit the trends at York so unless we see a return to the front running tactics, that’s a further negative.

New Approach has won a race on soft ground, beating Henrythenavigator and Curtain Call no less, but running on soft ground over seven furlongs is different than running an extra 3 furlongs on heavy ground. You may also remember me questioning it’s stamina before the 2000 Guineas (which it didn’t win) and before the Derby (which it did win, quite impressively). I think if we ran that Derby again, we wouldn’t get the same result and I believe the heavy ground could find him out. It’s also worth mentioning that the Duke has won a Group 1 on soft ground and over 11 furlongs at that.

2.44 on Betfair at the time of writing. At risk of becoming a Coolmore whore like Will, I’d advise lumping on Duke Of Marmalade. For me, it’s the better horse of the two, backed up by trends and form. The stable is in form, as we all know, the jockey is probably the best in the world right now and … what more can I say?

I will also be having an e/w punt at a good price (10.00 on Betfair just now) on Drill Sergeant in the 16:40 race. Another prominent runner (which as I mentioned before, suits at York, especially on softer ground) who knows what to do in the mud, he was well beaten into second on heavy ground last time out, but the winner was off a feather-like 8 stone and all the talk is of him being a listed class horse; Drill Sergeant beat the rest of the field by over three lengths. The winning time was a second quicker than the Group 3 race run over the same distance at the same meeting. This looks a great value bet.

York 15:25
Duke Of Marmalade
3 pts

York 16:40
Drill Sergeant
1.5 pts e/w

Friday, 15 August 2008

Saturday's Soccer

Early thoughts, possibly more to come:

Leeds v. Oldham 4/6 BSQ

Stockport v. Leicester 7/5 bet365

Motherwell v. Aberdeen 6/5 Ladbrokes

Airdrie v. Dundee 10/11 bet365

I am a fairy.

Wednesday, 13 August 2008

Some stuff

That's me back from another trip north of the border to see the wife. Turns out Kenny's cousin is a bell end. Anyway, my train home wasn't until 16:02 so I took the time to get the RP in and enjoy her cable TV (ATR for the win!).

I placed three bets and had a good day - my first was a small bet on Ruby Tallulah in the 15:00 at Lingfield, as it was unlucky last time out, Kirsty Milczarek (pictured) was on it and it was good value at 5.7 - it won, which means KM has now lost her claim. Although I know she's still a good jock, I will be easing off the blind Kirsty backing for now, just to see what happens. Pretty sure I'll be backing her again quickly though, especially if some trainers let her have a go on real horses, with four legs and that run in a straight line and everything.

My other two bets were Rightful Rulers in the 18.10 as the favourite looked awful. Right to oppose, but 3 points lost to an outsider as my selection came 2nd. The 19:25 at Nottingham was better fayre though as Shadow Bay came in, 2 points at 5.2 leaving me 7.76 points in profit for the day and at 53.88 points up since the formation of the Scoop Troop, another all-time high. Let's hope the upward trend carries on.

I have a job interview tomorrow, I don't really want the job but I can't afford not to work. I almost hope I don't get it really, but I have literally no other options open to me just now and beggars can't be choosers. The sick news is that my strike rate at interviews is 0%. Honestly. I have had 7 jobs in my life (counting the two spells at Hustlers as two jobs) and they were all down to knowing the right people, no interview required. They always throw me a curveball, some bullshit hippy question which catches me out and makes me look stupid. "What's your favourite colour and why?"

Might go to Bramall Lane tomorrow, nothing better to do. We won't beat Port Vale, I wonder if he'll put a strong side out. Loving the pigs failing to beat 10 man Rovrum at home tonight, ridiculous but hilarious.

Think I'll leave it there and go play G1 jockey which is quite simply, the best Wii game ever.

Sunday, 10 August 2008

Car Crash

I am one lucky boy! In the early hours of this morning I was in a fairly bad car crash and survived with only a few aches and pains, as did the driver and the two backseat passengers.

We were getting a lift back from a friend's house and I was sitting in the passenger seat. It was something like 5am, I was exhausted and couldn't stop myself from dozing off. Then baaannnnnnggggg as we hurtled down a brae and eventually ended about 20 metres from the road with the car on its side. Very, very scary! One hell of a way to be woken up, a tap on the shoulder would have worked.

Everyone seemed fine and in one piece so we clambered out and got everything sorted.

Car obv a write off but I feel so lucky that we didn't smash into a tree or the like. The corner is reknowned for being notoriously tricky with a number of accidents over the years, this coupled with the heavy rain caused the car to slide off. Nasty.

Girlfriend picked me up later on and I was bricking it in the passenger side of her car even though she is an excellent driver. Obv mentally scarred :-p

Below is an artist's impression of events which may or may not accurately illustrate the crash....

Saturday, 9 August 2008

Sunday Selection - Zulu Chief 4.15 Curragh

Just had a quick scan of the cards tommorw and as a Coolmore whore have uncovered a cracking bet at the Curragh in the shape of Zulu Chief. This horse ran well at Newmarket first time out and then romped away with a maiden by 20lengths. This horse has some fancy entries but O'Brien has been quoted as saying they will aim low this year but expect him to be top class next year.

This is not a great Group 2 and shouldn't take much winning. The main danger on paper looks to be King of Rome but he looks thorougly exposed and shouldn't be good enough. Moiqen is a decent horse but I don't expect him to live with the class of Zulu Chief. I expect a star to be born tommorow and will backing Zulu Chief for a decent sized bet. I will be looking for 6/4 but would take anything over Evens.

Friday, 8 August 2008

Chilli Heatwave Doritos.......

.... are surely the best crisps in the world?

Anyone got anything to compete alongside these bad boys?

Tuesday, 5 August 2008

I've got the key, I've got the secret(or do I?)

Ok so until mid June I have found this betting lark very hard work this year.Any decent wins were swiftly followed by a run of losers and I found myself down on the year for bit. Then I found some form in late June and built up a decent bank before managing to make some rash decisions as has been the norm for me and ended up with just a small period for that profit.

Now I'm aware that July and August are the months us punters on the horses have the best chance of winning so made another deposit in Betfair 16 days ago. The last 2 weeks have not only cleared the years loss but netted me a decent bank to play with. I've not decided how to play this yet. I've cut the account so I've level for the year. They key is, has this been an extraordinary run of luck which will soon peter out and lead to a sudden fall (the what comes up must come down theory)? Or is it the case that things have finally fallen into place and I have they key? There is no doubt that the increased bank has actually stopped me tilting when I lose a couple of bets as it means that the hit I take has not such an impact on the balance. I think before my bets were too high a percentage of the account balance.

My question is do I withdraw the bulk of winnings and start again with a small bank OR do I keep a sizeable bank in the hope that this is the key to success? Thoughts/opinions welcomed. I know I can be my own worst enemy at times and I value all your opinions as friends and as guys with good betting knowledge.

Will? Were you at Carlisle this evening?

From the RP
An angry punter, seemingly the worse for drink, held up the third race at Carlisle on Monday night for fully eight minutes after remaining on the course and shouting abuse at jockeys.

Tom Eaves, who rode the unplaced Liberty Lodge in the race, said; "He was shouting stuff at us as we walked around at the start and wouldn't get out of the way."

I can just imagine it. "You're a joke, a fucking clown! What a shit ride, I hope you realise what you've cost me. Fucking joke. You should retire now because you're fucking shite!"

Anyway, I came online to study some form and basically there's nothing really that I like, apart from in the 17:00 at Catterick (7f) where I will be enjoying an e/w punt.

The forecast favourite (5.1 as I type) looks pish to me. It's basically done nothing. I don't care that the way this race should be run will suit it, it's average and it's carrying more weight than it's ever done before. Bohobe (7.0) doesn't impress me either. Am I supposed to care that they've booked Seb Sanders? You can't polish a turd. Putting a good jockey on it won't make it win. It's never acted on the forecast ground (Good to Firm) before and it's only win was on Good to Soft, over the minimum trip.

Looking at how Red Skipper's career has panned out, you'd have to think that this trip is going to suit it, but then you realise that it has run over 7f before and it came last. I watched that race and it was fucking terrible, properly shit. Broke perfectly, faded quickly, never responded to the jockey at all and generally ran about as well as Tim plays poker. I really can't understand why it's forecast second favourite by ATR, I think the RP are closer and I think even Betfair is wrong just now, I can't believe it's ahead of Just Sam in the market. I expect that will all have changed when I wake up.

Speaking of Just Sam, what a consistent filly she is, but she obviously doesn't like winning. She's had a few good chances and always comes second, perhaps comparable to Alan Sharp's poker career. Last time out she lost by a neck to a nag which later showed up nowhere in a seller. Today she'll carry 7lbs more for that and I can envisage another bridesmaid performance.

Nothing else really takes my eye; Fantasy Fighter looks horrendous but will be carrying a feather weight so could run a place, Afton View looks like it's got it's best chance to do well and Monte Cassino has also has good a chance as he'll ever get (ran okay in maiden company last time out and loses almost a stone for it!) but none impress me as much as Johnny Friendly.

A useful win over this trip and in this company on the all weather was followed up by a third place a class higher (the winner of that was far too good for that grade and the second went on to win a class six race and come second at class five to a useful sort) . He then scored another class five second place, in a race where there was no real front runner. Forced to make the running, Johnny Friendly was overtaken by two others but rallied and stayed on well to get second in a blanket finish. More recently tried over 8f, which stretches him, it seems a return to this trip is the way forward and although the weight may be a little high, I think he's got more than enough about him to take this down. The price has actually shortened as I've typed all this out and it's only 5.9 at Betfair now but as I don't see it getting much bigger, I'm going to take some of it.

I'm going to back it e/w because I'm chicken. I am worried about those two feather weight horses getting lucky, basically. Instead of 2pts to win, I'm going 1pt e/w. This is going to be my only bet of the day, nothing else grabs me at all.


Sunday, 3 August 2008

Busy on here lately

Keep up the good work.

Was at a loose end this evening so I decided to have a quick scan of the Sunday card. I’ve basically picked all the races with ten or fewer runners as they generally mean less effort is required. Here’s what I came up with:

14:50 at Chester – I would be most interested in Alphabeth, but 5 runs in the last months (including yesterday) is a tad excessive and so she surely won’t run. Even if she does, she’ll be cream crackered. I think Red Baron Dancer is probably going to win, but I have enough doubts in my mind to want to oppose it and will be going with a small e/w bet on Aahaygirl. It will be a tough ask off that weight, but I think it can be done. Of course, this assumes that eight/nine go. If seven or fewer run, I will just leave this one alone as there’s not enough e/w appeal.

Verdict: Aahaygirl is good enough to do Red Baron Dancer. If she weren’t carrying so much weight I’d be backing her to win but as it is, 0.5 points e/w at around 7.5

17:00 at Chester – much like the last one, I’d be more interested in the non runner than any of the others, but as things stand I think Bowder Stone is the way to go. I’m usually wary of horses with many 2s and 3s but no 1s, but I think this one can be excused. It performed well last time out over C&D, coming second to a decent horse with a good draw in My Aunt Fanny, while the time before it was third to two more useful sorts. It should also enjoy the ground. Riqaab may have the Group One entry, but it hasn’t actually done anything yet. Last time out it beat nothing at all of note and it’s not proven to me that it can stay this distance. Another tough ask off top weight, but I think the selection can finally get his nose in front.

Verdict: Bowder Stone, 2pts at around 3.5

15:35 Market Rasen – Little Lu has to be the one here. She just has better form than the Timmy Murphy ride, which is now at an all time high in the weights. Ursis looks to have strong claims but may prefer easier ground and the win last time out was the first for 18 months. Little Lu has 5 wins from 9 and has been well placed, I think this is another good choice of race.

Verdict: Little Lu, 1 point at around 3.05

Edit: I've only just got up, bit later than planned. I've come to place my bets and I'm pretty surprised by what I see. Bowder Stone is short, available now only at 2.85, which I'll probably have to take. Little Lu is at 5.4, which surprises me and Aahaygirl is around 6.6.

Saturday, 2 August 2008


Betting on friendlies is generally not advised but surely Liverpool will be a good thing today vs Rangers.

Rangers 5/2 Draw 13/5 Liverpool 5/4

Also, Middlesbrough should defeat Hibernian easily too. I read this week that Hibs haven't scored since like April which is ridic. Their latest friendly was a defeat to Cowdenbeath and since this their manager, Mixu Pataelinaan*, has declared that 9 of the first team squad are available for transfer.

Hibernian 9/4 Draw 13/5 Middlesbrough 11/10

All prices from oddschecker.

*almost certainly a spelling error

SFL Kicks Off

First fixtures of the season today in the Scottish Football Leagues (this doesn't include the SPL) and one bet sticks out and it pains me to say it.

There is no way I can see my team, Dundee, winning away to Ross County. Last week Dundee were pathetic in the Challenge Cup losing to lower league Alloa 2-1. Ross County on the other hand beat Division 1 favourites St. Johnstone.

However, the real reason Dundee are to be opposed is the fact that they have no fit defenders. All four recognised central defenders (MacKenzie, Lauchlan, McKeown and Malone) are unfit and won't play whilst 2 or 3 other regulars won't play. Things have got so bad that the manager, Alex Rae, has registered himself and coach Paul Ritchie! Plus we have Rab Douglas between the sticks and I'm not sure he'll be any use at 36 as he was never the most fluid of movers.

Rae was quoted in the paper as saying his team will "have a go" and doesn't sound at all confident.

From oddschecker:

Ross County 7/4 Draw 13/5 Dundee 17/10

Hope I'm wrong and Dundee thrash them!

Glorious Gambling

I haven’t studied any form for a good few days so I thought I’d check out Saturday at Goodwood. Owing to not having a TV in the room where I am based at my folks, I’m finding following the racing difficult. Yesterday I watched my first Goodwood races – ridiculous! I punted on two of them, I was on Cape Hawk e/w (placed 4th, small profit) and Sohcahtoa (won, decent profit) which moved the Scoop Troop profits up to a healthy 49.04 points.

I am going to use the products of tonight’s studying to enter the latest Beat Victor competition ( which I forgot to enter last week, owing to being at York. Pretty sure I will never win a Beat Victor contest ever again, but if I get the free £5 bet, that’s better than nothing. I've not even glanced at the card prior to this, so I've nothing already in mind and I've no idea what I'll end up with.

Getting our priorities in order right off the bat, let’s look at the draw. I understand there to be a significant draw bias in sprints at Goodwood, in favour of the higher numbered stalls. It is even more prominent at on the round course and for the longer distances, the centre seems to be the way to go. The going looks set to be Good to Firm, ideal conditions.

The opening race 11 furlong looks a tricky contest but I like the looks of Cosmea, available at 6.6 on Betfair as I type. This one won a fortnight ago, beating a horse by a neck which then turned up at Goodwood on Wednesday, comfortably winning a class 2 race. A winner over 10 and 12 furlongs, at similar weights to today, it should easily be able to cope. The favourite has never run beyond 9 furlongs and though the pedigree suggests it might be able to handle it, I’d rather back the proven performer. Here’s hoping jockey Dane O’Neill comes back from his fortnight’s lay off in the same form he left us with – his last day’s work saw him fire in three winners, a second and a third from seven rides.

Verdict: Cosmea 1 pt.

I’m thoroughly confused by the second race. I can’t understand why Perfect Stride is so short, he surely needs to be bigger than 3.15 on offer at Betfair just now and although River Proud (who seems the best bet for me) is a much healthier 4.3, I can’t back him due to his behavioural problems. Stubbs Art is consistent at a higher level and I can forgive the run last time out but it may not even go, says the trainer. If forced I’d probably go with Stubbs Art, but I think I’ll just be watching.

Verdict: No thanks.

The 15:15 Group 1 looks really straightforward. It just has to be Lush Lashes (right). Bounced back nicely from a blip at Epsom and can handle 10 furlongs, as proven when beating a couple of useful sorts at York on Good to Firm. The only one coming close for me is the O’Brien filly (and who’d bet against O’Brien winning another Group 1!?) but given that last time out it could only beat Tuscan Evening by a head with Mad About You another head behind, I’m not impressed; Mad About You reappeared 5 ¾ lengths behind Moonstone (who Lush Lashes beat at York by 7 lengths) and Tuscan Evening turned out last time 14 ½ lengths behind Lush Lashes. Sorry Will, but you Coolmore whores can’t win every race… I will be putting this down as my first tilt at 'L' in the A-Z game also.

Verdict: Lush Lashes 2pts. Same applies for my A-Z game.

The 15:50 has 28 runners. That is all. I will be keeping an eye on Orpsie Boy though, as Kirsty is on board, like she was the other day at Ascot in another massive race, scoring a creditable 5th place. It must be said though, I think they were lucky to be drawn where all the pace was, a couple of better horses on the opposite side came nowhere with nothing to race against.

Verdict. Don’t even GO there, girlfriend. Watch Miss Milczarek fire in a 33/1 shot and then cry for not backing it e/w.

Another no go is the 16:25. It’s a maiden and it’s got 18 entrants. They’re mostly talking about Holyrood, because it looked like it could be useful finishing 4th in it’s only run. Sigh. I’ll leave the guesswork to Scott, I like my bets to have a little substance to them. One thing I will bet on though, Laura or Kenny could pick one out blindfolded and the fucking thing would probably win.

Verdict: No bet.

The 17:00 nursery looks a tricky one to sort out, with most pundits opting for the top weight. I think Golden Rosie is in with a good chance and 9lbs lighter than Tishtar, I’d be inclined to go with her. Fault interests me, it’s either going to win it, or come last.

Verdict: No bet. I like Golden Rosie but not enough. If there’s a market move or something, I might be persuaded to put a point on.

The apprentice race at 17:35 is yet another horrible one. I’d love to back Kirsty Milczarek, as you all know, but she’s on a shocker of a horse. I rate David Probert as an up and coming jockey and his ride Count Ceprano interests me but again, not enough to punt on. White Deer has interesting form but looks unlikely to stay 11 furlongs. A horrible, horrible race to sort out.

Verdict: Another cop-out, I’m afraid. No money to be made by guessing. If force, I’d take Count Ceprano for half a point e/w (13.0 at time of writing).

So there you have it, after all that it turns out I'm having just three points on Goodwood tomorrow! One time Goodwood.

Friday, 1 August 2008

Big Bad Dom

Here’s a quick update from me.

I’m still unemployed and have very few irons in the fire. AQA, Texperts rivals, decided they didn’t want me, which I just can’t understand as any monkey can do the job and this particular monkey did it for 17 months. Meh. Just got a few bits off the Job Centre website, will be sending off e-mails after this.

Laura was down last weekend and we nipped up the road to York – what a fantastic day out that was. The weather was ridiculous, we both came back with bright red faces and there was a Queen tribute band on after the meeting, which was fine banter. Apart from the fact that they were quite good, it seemed to spark all kinds of partying. We even enjoyed a streaker and some of the most relaxed stewarding ever – football security abroad ought to take note. A gang of them were stood watching and laughing at a group of blokes play fighting and the streaker was allowed basically to roam free – when he was caught, he just walked back to his mates, posing for photos before going off up the home straight again. The police waded in and restored order/spoiled the fun!

As for the gambling, I didn’t have a great day. I’d said to Laura that the card was a tough one and you’d be lucky to pick one winner from the seven races as they were really tough to call. As it happens I did get one winner, from five bets: Esoterica in the last race, 1 point each way at 9/2 (just missed out on 5/1) to leave me up a paltry 1.6 points for the day. The racing however, was of a superb standard and was well worth the visit. Pipedreamer (pictured) took down the Group 2 feature race.

York Lowlights: telling everyone that my nap was Four Miracles and then ridiculously not only failing to back it, because the price eased ever so slightly, but then backing a market mover which lost, to Four Miracles. It’s no coincidence that when I write everything down and stick to it, I have a good day but when I go racing unsure of myself, I have poor days. Also, Tajaweed. Backed it in it’s Derby trial and was thoroughly unimpressed and I correctly wrote it off for the Derby (as you may have read). I vowed never to forgive the run in the trial. Well at York I forgave it, for several reasons and I was wrong to do so. Why oh why did I change my mind about it?

York Highlights: being really surprised by what a fantastic race the 16:15 Maiden was. I’d said to Laura that it looked the worst race on the card and I was happy to just half watch it whilst really watching the King George at Ascot on the screens. What a pair of races we were treated to, the long odds on favourite at York kicked on before being caught up by Cruikadyke after a clever switch by the jockey and the lead changed hands a few times, before the 6/1 shot finally got up and then minutes later, a cracking race at Ascot saw Papal Bull and Duke Of Marmalade exchanging similar blows. Also, Laura’s ridiculous performance – “I can’t come racing and not have a bet” she proclaims before the fourth race of the day, the biggest field with 15 runners. The one she liked the name of was a non runner so she proceeded to sit and study the card. I reminded her that this was probably the worst race to bet on, so many runners, so many with chances and no clear favourite. She then decided she liked Lesson In Humility as it carried number 10 (her birthday) and was drawn stall 3 (a number she likes, I forget why, her house number back home I think) - plus it had a cool name. I had just seen it move from 16/1 to 14/1 and as I was suggesting she go each way, should she choose to back it, some cut it to 12/1. That was enough for me, I pushed her towards the last guy offering 14/1 as his neighbour cut it to 10/1. You know it waltzed home. I was on the Pricewise horse, which was nowhere. She also backed two more horses, one was unplaced and the other was Esoterica (which she only picked for it’s Scottish connections, she didn’t know I was backing it) which gave her a fine record of 2/3 and a scoop of around £140, from £25 placed.

I had three bets the other day, all of which were losers. Shame really because my July strike rate was quite high until then. Stat attack for July: 44.44% from 27 bets, total return of 28.94 points. Also, 8.74 points £1 level stakes profit. A good month really, which saw me reach an all time high before the slight dip at the end. Graph attack:

I haven’t played the A-Z game for 24 days, for one reason or another, so I’ll have to resume that soon. For those of you who were following it, I’m on ‘L’ and haven’t placed any bets yet. I may wait for the football season to start. My current score is 4.16 points profit.

The main reason I haven’t been gambling much is because I’ve been whoring bonuses. I don’t want to blog too much about that as I don’t want to risk losing my good thing, but I broke the £1,000 barrier yesterday and I started on June 28th – a nice months work. If you want details, you know where to contact me. I’m about dried up now, that I know of there is only £300 I can get at, so I’m now relying on the bookies offering me generous reloads and loyalty offers and new websites popping up. Roll on the new football season. I did make a quick £90 yesterday by signing up at JackpotJoy via Quidco. I deposited the required £10 and played Deal Or No Deal slots, scooping a £43 offer from the banker and a £73 something offer. Of course, I had to piss a lot of it away to meet the wagering requirements, but it did manage to cash out a round £60 profit plus the £30 cashback from Quidco. Hurrah!

Okay, so that’s me all up to date on the gambling front. Take it easy folks.