Saturday, 26 September 2009

Swansea vs Sheffield United

As you're probably all aware, I hate backing draws as I believe they're a poor long term bet, but I can't see any other result from United's trip to Wales today. I had a brief look at a few angles, including laying both sides, but I don't think laying either side represents any value.

There's no real head-to-head form with these teams. We drew in Swansea last time after playing terribly, with Morgan bailing us out at the death with a deft flick over the 'keeper that any striker would be pleased with and the Bramall Lane encounter was a better performance, though it was still tight; United winning 1-0 courtesy of a spot-kick. Prior to that, you're looking at league cup games and league matches from 25 years ago.

United had a hard match last time out, with the Steel City Derby as intense as ever and despite playing well enough to find themselves 3-0 up at half time, they sat back, invited Wednesday on and let them get back into the match, ensuring a frenetic and draining finish to the match.

Montgomery and Morgan, both absolutely crucial to United's campaign face late fitness tests and Kilgallon may still not be fully fit after his chest infection, which potentially leaves us with only on loan Andy Davies and just signed Jon Fortune as centre halves. It is this potential for disorder at the back which I believe will be our downfall today, as we discovered against Coventry the other week. With Kilgallon out, we had a defensive re-shuffle and despite scoring twice, stupid errors meant we shipped three goals for the first time in years and lost the game. I can see Swansea scoring from a set piece, coming about through our lack of organisation, rather than any brilliance on their part.

I can see us struggling for goals today. That may seem daft, as our record compares favourably with those in the division, but you simply have to factor in the opposition. Three against Wednesday included an own goal and a deflection off Henderson, Coventry are no great shakes and were comically bad defensively and a single goal saw off Derby, when we ought to have scored four. Jamie Ward's hamstring went in the Derby, so he'll be out for a few weeks and he's the only player who's looked like scoring of late. Based on this, I can't see us scoring more than one today.

Swansea's home record so far this term reads played four, drawn three. United have an excellent record on the road, one of the best in the league and I don't think we'll lose this game, I just question whether we've got the firepower to win it. I can see us scoring, missing countless chances and then allowing Swansea in, with Blackwell happy to take a point in what will be a tough encounter.

So although it's unlike me, I will be punting on the draw. Just a small stakes interest bet at a price that looks okay. 2.4 on Betfair and 9/4 with Coral are the best prices available. 1-1 (correct score) is only 6/1 on the exchanges, which seems a little stingy, so I can't really recommend it as it's no value, even though I reckon that will be the scoreline.

Swansea City vs Sheffield United
1 pt @ 2.4 (Betfair)


TheHat said...

2.4?!?!?! WTF?

I like a draw for this too.

Changed title for you, had Swanses.

moDtheGod said...

Haha, I meant 3.4, Oops.

We wuz robbed too.

Mountain Man said...

Hmm. I had a stinker. 3 trebles and 3 letdowns. I backed Blades in one of them, before I saw this blog post I hasten to add.

I envisage numerous accas being busted by ridiculous odds on bankers letting them down this weekend also. Wigan have now twice shafted healthy looking lines for me at this early stage of the season so far.

moDtheGod said...

Multiples = multiplying the bookies edge :)

You know what our least profitable bets are? Singles.

George said...

This game reminded me why I stopped betting on football. Aargh!