Doncaster, Saturday 17th April 2010

I’ve only been to Doncaster once and that was for the 2008 Ladbrokes St Leger, when Conduit (left) famously ended Michael Stoute’s barren run in the race, as well as making resident Trooper Will look like a right mug. How did it go again Walsh? "Conduit cannot possibly win the St Leger" or something, wasn’t it? Anyway, I had a cracking day out (got the first two winners as well) and it really is a lovely place.

That same day, I backed Mia’s Boy in the State Club Handicap, over a mile. I felt it travelled really well and was badly hampered at a crucial time. I remember being pretty pissed off at the time as I thought it could have won and I’ve always looked out for it ever since, so I’m delighted to see him take his chance in tomorrow’s feature, the Doncaster Mile (18:15).

The six year old bay loves it at Doncaster, with two wins and a second from six appearances at the South Yorkshire course, which also includes creditable 4th (2009) and 6th (2010) placed finishes in the Lincoln Handicap. If the ground stops drying out, conditions should suit him fine (and any overnight rain to soften it up a touch would be perfect) and I reckon he’s the likely winner.

The selection’s seasonal reappearance saw him go down by a neck on the all weather, to tomorrow’s top weight, Dunelight. That day they both raced off 9st 3lbs, but Mia’s Boy re-opposes 3lbs better off and comes into it off the back of that respectable top-weight 6th placed finish in the William Hill Lincoln. Dunelight will make the running and keep the pace honest, which will set it up for Mia’s Boy (right) who likes to come with a late run and Doncaster is a tough place to win from pillar to post.

As for the others, Light From Mars looks well held after finishing eight lengths behind the selection here in October, while Cloudy Start will need the run, as he did first time out last year. Fanunalter is going to have to really improve to even get close. This has all the makings of a full roll bet in my opinion, though I’d leave the 2/1 available on Betfair for now and see how it looks later tonight.

Having dealt with the finest fayre of the Doncaster Mile, let’s get stuck into the supplementary sundries. The last race is an absolute stick-on for Stoute’s Saptapadi, who wasn’t beaten by much over five lengths in the Chester vase, so a Class 4 Maiden clearly isn’t going to be any bother (and nor is the price going to be worth bothering with).

The opener is an eighteen runner, amateur lady riders affair, so I’ll likely swerve that one. The second race isn’t much better from a punting point of view, as only two of the thirteen entries have even seen a racecourse, so this one gets a wide berth too.

Jarrow looks a pretty good thing in the third (17:40), with the form working out quite well from its last race. The current 4/1 on Betfair looks fairly nice, I bet it doesn’t go off at that price. I’d also be tempted to have an each way nibble on Bossy Kitty at a huge price too, if only because it’s Kirsty Milczarek (left) in the saddle, but it does seem a harsh price considering the filly’s form in October, even if it is a big ask.

Red Jade looks a decent bet in the 18:50. Fahey has started the season with a bang and his nags are running very well. Although the chestnut gelding is hiked 6lbs in the weights, I can’t see that being a problem. The form is working out well after his reappearance over course and distance at the end of March and the only concern would be the ground. Although I don’t know for certain that he’d prefer softer, both of his victories have come on soft, so I guess that will be the excuse should it come last!

I like Hollow Green in the penultimate race, the 19:25, which is currently 6/1 on Betfair. Winning on seasonal appearance last year, the four year old filly won a few races over the summer and was campaigned at a higher level towards the end of the season. Recently second over course and distance, losing out to the aforementioned Red Jade in that race where the form’s working out nicely, she is now 1lb lower than her highest winning mark and is a genuine, consistent type. In such a tricky little race, I think that’s a good quality to have on my side and I also rate Cathy Gannon, who will be steering tomorrow.

My likely bets then:

Universal Recycling Doncaster Mile Stakes (18:15)
Mia’s Boy
4pts win
Advanced Medical Rejuvenation Handicap (17:40)
Jarrow
1pt win
Society Lifestyle And Leisure Magazine Handicap (18:50)
Red Jade
1pt win
Moss Properties Fillies' Handicap (19:25)
Hollow Green
0.5pts e/w

Tote Placepot:
L1: 2 + 5 +14
L2: 5 + 13
L3: 1
L4: 5
L5: 6 + 11
L6: 6 + 9
(24 bets)

World Snooker Championship - Ding To Be King

Just back in from work. Was surprised to see Ding Junhui available to back for the forthcoming Betfred World Snooker Championship at a large looking 8/1, but even more surprised when I just fired up oddschecker.com, to see that some firms go 9/1!

The reigning UK Champion, Ding Junhui has been in decent form and is clearly a future winner of the World Snooker Championship. 9/1 with Ladbrokes looks like a good bet to me.

Each way terms are half the odds, first two. Definitely worth a nibble.

I’m going to Doncaster races tomorrow so I’ll have a look at some nags tonight and might try and come up with a few tips and maybe a placepot. It’s the final of Miss South Yorkshire after, which should be a laugh. Fill in your own gags about fillies and that.

John Smith's Grand National 2010

The Grand National. Four miles and four furlongs of spine tingling, adrenaline pumping joy. The race needs no introduction really, so let’s set about finding the winner.

I don’t have a bad record in the race really, having backed Amberleigh House (right) each way the year it placed and the following year when it won, as well as Comply Or Die two years ago, but I didn’t do so well last year and will be looking to put that right. I’ll adopt my usual strategy of picking a shorter priced fancy, as well as one from the middle of the market and a bigger priced outsider.

Let’s tuck into the trends then. Age to start off with, as no horse aged seven has won it since 1940. There are always some seven year olds in the Grand National and some mugs must chuck money at them. Tricky Trickster (left) is as short as 12/1 (Betfred) and the last time a horse of the same age won, we’d just gone to war. Ridiculous. More senior horses are to be avoided too, as horses twelve or older have won just twelve wins in the race’s history. Eight to eleven is my range.

Plenty of stamina is required to triumph and all winners of the Grand National since 1971 had won over three miles, prior to taking part. This simply cannot be overlooked.

All of the last twelve National winners had at least three career wins in chases before the race, eleven of those having won four or more times. Only one of the last twelve (Bindaree, right) had failed to win a chase with thirteen or more runners; experience in bigger fields is clearly an advantage in a race containing forty runners. On top of that, all of the last twelve Grand National winners competed in ten or more chases prior to the race. I’ll apply all of these statistics to further thin the field, as collectively they should help to pick a horse with the right type of experience required to win the Grand National.

A stat I’ve come to like is recent form. As Will pointed out last year, all twenty of the last twenty winners had come at least third or better in at least one of the three races prior to the Grand National; we’ll overlook the fact that not all third place finishes weigh up the same, but as Will rightly said, it allows you to ditch the nags that (misleadingly) look well handicapped on older pieces of form, but that are actually out of form.

I thought about sidestepping the well-known trend regarding weights for the first time ever, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. If I’m honest, it’s probably because I wanted to include Black Apalachi (best price 14/1, Victor Chandler, William Hill, Coral) as I backed it as my outside bet two years ago and it travelled like a dream last year, stepping over the fences as though they weren’t there. But that would defeat the point of any trends based approach, so I must stick to my guns, no sentiment allowed.

The facts are that in the last half a century or so, only Red Rum (left) has lugged home more than 11st 5lb and in the last quarter of a century (give or take) only one horse has carried home more than 11st, which was Hedgehunter with just 11st 1lb. An obvious cut off point is 11st and I will cross anything greater than that off my list.

All things considered then, I am left with four: Beat The Boys, Arbor Supreme, Chief Dan George and Merigo. The latter pair are highly unlikely to take their chance in the Grand National at this late stage, with Merigo needing sixteen to come out and the former needing seven. I really like Merigo too, I had it down as a potential Scottish National winner on this blog, but they pulled it out due to the ground. I was sure it would have won anyway. Anyway, somewhat frustratingly, this leaves me with just two horses and I like to pick three as mentioned at the start of this post.

As Beat The Boys (right) slots neatly into my “outsider” category (best price 100/1, Victor Chandler, William Hill, Coral) and Arbor Supreme into my “shorter priced” category (best price 16/1, William Hill, Ladbrokes, SportingBet) I had better pick a selection from the middle of the field, despite the lack of trend horses. Chief Dan George would have done the job, but as it looks unlikely to run, I’m going to plump for Comply Or Die.

2008's winner falls down on several trends, but I backed him two years ago when he won the race and when all my nags were out of contention by halfway last year, I find myself rooting for him again. I would love him to go in again this year. At a best price 28/1 (Totesport, William Hill) he looks very easy to back and rest assured, if Timmy Murphy chooses him over The Package, that price will be clipped, if only a small amount.

Beat The Boys would become the first grey to win the race since Nicolaus Silver in 1961 and only the third ever, but this is a trend that doesn't bother me, due to the sheer percentage of runners in the Grand National that aren't grey. It's a little bit like the myth regarding French-bred runners that I advised people to take no notice of last year - a moral victory I thought, when Mon Mome went in. Any horse from the Nigel Twiston-Davies (left) yard must be respected, due to his record in the Grand National, coupled with recent big race form.

Arbor Supreme has been targeted at the race (always a positive) and his versatility with regard to the going is a useful tool. Seemingly on an upward curve, he's trained by Willie Mullins and the record of the Irish trainers in the Grand National speaks for itself.

So to recap, my selections for the 2010 John Smith's Grand National (all 0.5 points each way):

Arbor Supreme - 16/1 William Hill, Ladbrokes, SportingBet)

Comply Or Die - 28/1 (Totesport, William Hill)

Beat The Boys - 100/1, Victor Chandler, William Hill, Coral

5/1 Fancy Tonight & Scottish Derby

The Greyhound Blue Riband at Hall Green is at the semi-final stage which go ahead tonight from 8:20. I missed the start of the competition unfortunately but I hope to make up for that by giving us a 5/1 winner for one of the heats tonight.

The three market leaders are split between the three heats and in the first Eye Eye Pickle, a dog I actually really like, can be taken on by the dog in trap one Moneygall Obama. Uncharacteristically, Obama was slow away in the first round but still showed good pace to win the heat. We can forgive him that one as he is usually fast to the bend and his trials were super fast with only Fear Zafonic and Eye onthe Storm having gone faster. 5/1 is super good so get involved.

The Scottish Greyhound Derby is at the second round stage tonight and the competition has been delayed a week after the postponement of the first round. The final will be live on SS a week on Saturday and to give us something to cheer on I've picked out the winner. Blood Of Kings is predominantly a sprinter but has the occasional 4 bend race - he's taken to Shawfield well and ran 29:31 in a trial as well as 29:51 when making all in the first heat from an unenjoyable trap six berth. He's chucked in trap 5 tonight and although he's a railer will still have the early to blast clear of these and win. If he gets an inside berth for semis and final then I think we have ourselves a bit of value at 16/1!

8:20 Hall Green
T1 Moneygall Obama @ 5/1 Various

Scottish Greyhound Derby
Blood Of Kings 16/1 Boylesports

Wooooooooooooooooddddsssssss!

Family man Tiger Woods generally goes off at between 6/4 and 2/1 for most majors, and I'm sure I've previously seen him even money. For the Masters this week he is 5/1! Of course there are huge reasons for this, with it being his first tournament in months and having no time to practise due to his constant shagging. However, I can't not back him at this price and then see him piss all over the field. So, gooooo Tiger!

I'm no golf expert and probably haven't ever had a tournament winner but I've a few other fancies for the Masters...

Anthony Kim 43/1
Geoff Ogilvy 47/1
Sean O'Hair 74/1
Matt Kuchar 94/1

All prices on Betfair. Please leave a comment with your thoughts on the 2010 Masters.

Scott