Friday, 16 April 2010

Doncaster, Saturday 17th April 2010

I’ve only been to Doncaster once and that was for the 2008 Ladbrokes St Leger, when Conduit (left) famously ended Michael Stoute’s barren run in the race, as well as making resident Trooper Will look like a right mug. How did it go again Walsh? "Conduit cannot possibly win the St Leger" or something, wasn’t it? Anyway, I had a cracking day out (got the first two winners as well) and it really is a lovely place.

That same day, I backed Mia’s Boy in the State Club Handicap, over a mile. I felt it travelled really well and was badly hampered at a crucial time. I remember being pretty pissed off at the time as I thought it could have won and I’ve always looked out for it ever since, so I’m delighted to see him take his chance in tomorrow’s feature, the Doncaster Mile (18:15).

The six year old bay loves it at Doncaster, with two wins and a second from six appearances at the South Yorkshire course, which also includes creditable 4th (2009) and 6th (2010) placed finishes in the Lincoln Handicap. If the ground stops drying out, conditions should suit him fine (and any overnight rain to soften it up a touch would be perfect) and I reckon he’s the likely winner.

The selection’s seasonal reappearance saw him go down by a neck on the all weather, to tomorrow’s top weight, Dunelight. That day they both raced off 9st 3lbs, but Mia’s Boy re-opposes 3lbs better off and comes into it off the back of that respectable top-weight 6th placed finish in the William Hill Lincoln. Dunelight will make the running and keep the pace honest, which will set it up for Mia’s Boy (right) who likes to come with a late run and Doncaster is a tough place to win from pillar to post.

As for the others, Light From Mars looks well held after finishing eight lengths behind the selection here in October, while Cloudy Start will need the run, as he did first time out last year. Fanunalter is going to have to really improve to even get close. This has all the makings of a full roll bet in my opinion, though I’d leave the 2/1 available on Betfair for now and see how it looks later tonight.

Having dealt with the finest fayre of the Doncaster Mile, let’s get stuck into the supplementary sundries. The last race is an absolute stick-on for Stoute’s Saptapadi, who wasn’t beaten by much over five lengths in the Chester vase, so a Class 4 Maiden clearly isn’t going to be any bother (and nor is the price going to be worth bothering with).

The opener is an eighteen runner, amateur lady riders affair, so I’ll likely swerve that one. The second race isn’t much better from a punting point of view, as only two of the thirteen entries have even seen a racecourse, so this one gets a wide berth too.

Jarrow looks a pretty good thing in the third (17:40), with the form working out quite well from its last race. The current 4/1 on Betfair looks fairly nice, I bet it doesn’t go off at that price. I’d also be tempted to have an each way nibble on Bossy Kitty at a huge price too, if only because it’s Kirsty Milczarek (left) in the saddle, but it does seem a harsh price considering the filly’s form in October, even if it is a big ask.

Red Jade looks a decent bet in the 18:50. Fahey has started the season with a bang and his nags are running very well. Although the chestnut gelding is hiked 6lbs in the weights, I can’t see that being a problem. The form is working out well after his reappearance over course and distance at the end of March and the only concern would be the ground. Although I don’t know for certain that he’d prefer softer, both of his victories have come on soft, so I guess that will be the excuse should it come last!

I like Hollow Green in the penultimate race, the 19:25, which is currently 6/1 on Betfair. Winning on seasonal appearance last year, the four year old filly won a few races over the summer and was campaigned at a higher level towards the end of the season. Recently second over course and distance, losing out to the aforementioned Red Jade in that race where the form’s working out nicely, she is now 1lb lower than her highest winning mark and is a genuine, consistent type. In such a tricky little race, I think that’s a good quality to have on my side and I also rate Cathy Gannon, who will be steering tomorrow.

My likely bets then:

Universal Recycling Doncaster Mile Stakes (18:15)
Mia’s Boy
4pts win
Advanced Medical Rejuvenation Handicap (17:40)
1pt win
Society Lifestyle And Leisure Magazine Handicap (18:50)
Red Jade
1pt win
Moss Properties Fillies' Handicap (19:25)
Hollow Green
0.5pts e/w

Tote Placepot:
L1: 2 + 5 +14
L2: 5 + 13
L3: 1
L4: 5
L5: 6 + 11
L6: 6 + 9
(24 bets)


moDtheGod said...

Shocker here. Fanunalter did improve and beat my pick by a head. Jarrow and Red Jade were both very poor.

Laura had one bet, Aphrodisia. It opened at 6/1, she took 8/1 and it continued to drift, touching 11/1 in places.

It then fell out of the stalls and made hard work of it, but still won by 3/4 of a length. I really don't know how she does it.

In other news, I didn't get a proper look at the Scottish National, but I see Merigo won it. I picked that out last year and was raging when they pulled it out due to the ground. Felt it could still have won. I didn't do the preview on here, it was on my shortlived "Horse Play" experimental blog.

donald said...

what's your tip for the derby coming up soon- you got any good hunches of what's going to go down at Epsom. its going to be exciting again this year.