Stat attack

Time for a monthly progress report.

August started off solidly but quickly deteriorated, not so much in terms of profit but more in the sense that I lost a bit of discipline. For the first half of the month I placed 15 bets and for the back half, I placed 36. I appear to have reverted to betting on too many selections. Yesterday I even chased a bit and I haven’t done that in months. But I’ve recognised what’s going on early and I am trying to reign it in. I suspect a lot of it has to do with a bit of tilt from last weekend when a matched betting error cost me close to £300 (more than I initially realised – about £50 of it was in the form of a free bet though, so not actual money lost) and although it’s not a huge deal, in that I’m still £1,342 up from matched betting, it always hurts to lose that kind of cash when you’re out of a job.

Some stats for August:

No. of bets – 51
Total profit – 6.64 points
Level stakes profit – 0.41 points
Strike rate – 28.00%

Although I hadn’t earned that much really, my strike rate was a lot better until I lost that bit of discipline. Same for the level stakes profit, yesterday messed that up a fair bit. The roll had hit an all time high on the 23rd, but the 24th was my little baseball experiment and I also had a couple of losing nags. A reasonable day at Catterick got things on the up again (and accounted for a few of the extra bets, 7 races 7 bets there) but I lost ten points in two days on the 28th and 29th thanks to all four of my picks talking a massive walk in the market before failing to perform. Yesterday was also bad, my Anelka to score anytime bet failing and a three point nag failing sent me a bit tilty. A few chasey bets followed, ending the day 2.4 points up.

So: problems identified, must work harder to improve. I’ve had two bets today, both bigger than usual and neither down to my efforts. Hugh Taylor at ATR had identified a couple and he’s been in form, so I all but blindly followed. One failed, one scored. My bets were slightly bigger than advised and I made 3.8 points out of it. A 50% strike rate and a small profit, a solid start to the month (total currently 51.86). I will most likely go to Southwell tomorrow as I’m bored and my sister is currently in labour, so stuff’s going to get hectic. A relaxing day at the nags followed by a trip to the hospital in the evening when shit’s cooled down is very much the sensible approach, I think. Haven’t studied any form yet but will tonight, I may or may not post my findings. I like to when I’m going to a meet, but this post is already getting lengthy, don’t want another mammoth post following it.

Quick graph attack. I do love my graphs.


Keep on scooping, mutha funsters.

Edit: been trying to study but my eyes just keep shutting. Going to bed now, will try to get up early and work harder but I just can't see it. The card is horrible, anyone who gets one winner here today will have done well, I think.

Here's my picks so far, all very tentative and of course, subject to change depending on the opening prices on track/market moves etc

14:10 Chroal Festival (probably 3 pts)
14:45 Ioerk Byrnison (definitely e/w, likely 0.5pts e/w)
15:20 Mac Dalia (likely e/w, probably 1pt e/w. If it opens shorter than I'm expecting, may well become a "to win" bet)
15:55 Bolckow (as above)
16:30 Elusive Hawk (probably 2 points, depends on the market)
17:05 Ocen Legend (maybe just a point, maybe two)

All I know so far is that it pays to follow those with experience at the track and those that run prominently, at Southwell. I really like Mac Dalia as it's won a few times here, runs prominently and really interestingly, it usualy runs well when running for the second time in about a week, after a crap run (often stepped up in class or trip). In fact it's won over C&D 3 times, those wins coming 5 days after a 6/17, 11 days after a 5/5 and 7 days after a 6/6. It's also got a 2nd place here which came 7 days after a 10/12. Just so you know, it last ran 6 days ago and finished 10/12. At 9.2 on Betfair just now, it looks a solid e/w play.