Greyhound Scottish Derby

Nearly missed this but noticed it started tonight when reading the Star this afternoon so grabbed a RP to have a look.

Ninja Jamie heads the field (4/1 Various) and rightly so with many good performances this season but is of course far too short for me to back when there is a number of dogs more than capable of turning it over. For example, on the clock, Windy Millar (16/1 Boylesports) is only .03 behind when they ran solo trials last week. Thurlesbeg Joker is another interesting sort @ 16/1. He set the course record at Sheffield in March and has won his last three races beating some decent sorts. However, a solo of 29.56 round Shawfield is a bit off but this was his first look at the course.

Got a few decent priced selections that I think are good each ways shouts:

Farloe Reason (10/1 BSQ) - 29.18 trial last week is very decent. Has good early and rails fairly well. Matches off well against the leading contenders.

Cabra Cool (14/1 VC) - Fast starting sort, with many a QAw and VQAw adorning his form. Very fast trial over 300m at Shawfield on the 27th March makes me believe he could be a tough dog to catch if clearing all.

Head Iton Ellis (25/1 BSQ) - Tough heat tonight including Cabra Cool but if it can get through I think it has enough improvement in it to go far here.

Tyrur Jay (50/1 Various) - Can see improvement in this dog's 29.64 at Shawfield last week with decent times at Shelbourne recently. Price will tumble if it gets through a few rounds.

GL all.

Scott

EDIT: Just seen that Windy Millar won it's heat in 29.08 and beat Ninja Jamie into 3rd. This was despite bumping at the first and crowding at the 3rd corner - very impressive. Slip The Lark got 2nd in that heat.

Horse Play

http://hplay.blogspot.com/

I'm going to keep all my horse racing stuff in a seperate blog from now on.

Don't panic, I'm still wanting to contribute here and any football and sports betting stuff that I write will still be posted here, but the problem with the Scoop Troop is that it's too tempting to fill my posts with in-jokes, bad language and suchlike in order to stop the non-racing types getting bored. I want to keep a record of more serious, professional articles as I'm thinking of doing a bit of freelance stuff at some point, assuming anyone will take it!

I'll obviously still wade in with my two penn'orth and will happily reproduce any bigger horsie stuff (big race previews and that) but as I say, I'm looking for a more professional angle and the only way to do that, is to practice.

No offence, chaps. Enjoy my Grand National preview on there. I'm not copying you, Will. Honest. Trends are the future.

Stan James Greyhound Grand National

It's nice to see posts from Will and Tim over the last week, both made very interesting reading. Another pleasing aspect is a 'random' posting a comment on Tim's F1 post - always good to know people are reading.

Anyway, the Greyhound Grand National starts tomorrow @ Wimbledon with 6 first round heats. I've picked out a few selections in the outright market and am confident of a scoopage after picking out Corrig Vieri in the Arc as my last big selection.

Barnfield Chubby: A wide runner with very good early pace. Last two trips over the 460mH at Wimbledon have provided times of 28.11 and 28.10 - both times good enough to easily beat anything in this competition. Best price 16/1 on Coral.

Love Mac: Strong running railer. Not blessed with good early pace but finishes very well. Has posted decent times over the 400mH trip round Romford and only this month ran a fast 28.09 solo round this competition trip. Has a good chance if receiving decent draws. Best price 25/1 with Skybet.

Mall Byte: Has perhaps clocked the best times of any the dogs in the competition over 400mH at Romford and it's my hope that this can translate to the 460mH at Wimbledon. Very hit and miss at the traps but when it pings it's very fast out. Take a chance @ 33/1 with Ladbrokes.

GL all,

Scott

F1 Preview Part 2 - Driver Line Ups And Fancies

Well before getting into the main body of this post, I should address the fact that the F.I.A. have made an eleventh hour u-turn on their decision to award the drivers championship to the participant with the most wins. The title will now be decided in the usual way, going to the man who scores the greatest number of points. Seemingly, though, the next season the championship will be taking a revised format, so these plans may not be shelved altogether.

Now, onto a quick look at who will be taking to the grid this year:

Ferrari

Kimi Raikkonen / Felipe Massa
An unchanged line up once again for this season, and sure to be quick out of the box. A rejuvenated Kimi won’t retire at the end of this season, whatever happens - either if he wins a second successive title or if he’s foiled by Massa or a driver from another team (that would be Lewis Hamilton, then) Raikkonen looked disinterested at times last year, and drove with little passion, but it seems his motivation and desire to win has at last returned. And Massa, who is contracted to Ferrari until 2010, is driving better than ever.

McLaren

Lewis Hamilton / Heikki Kovalainen
An unchanged driver line up, featuring the current World Champion, and his underachieving sidekick. There’s no way that Ron Dennis is letting Lewis out of his sight - and where would he go anyway ? Critics of Kovalainen should remember that he has less than half a season at McLaren under his belt; at times he has been faster than Hamilton, and I'm sure that McLaren will keep him beyond the end of this year - it would be premature to dump the luckless Finn after just two years; he has to be a long term investment. Not looking quite so sharp in pre-season testing, it won’t be long before they iron out the problems and will be pushing for wins and come the seasons end, the championships.

BMW Sauber

Robert Kubica / Nick Heidfeld

Once again, an unchanged line up, although it can only be a matter of time before Kubica is snapped up for a top seat. BMW started off brightly last term, but disappointed somewhat after their maiden victory in Canada, after they shelved ongoing development in favour of putting their eggs in the 2009 basket. Heidfeld has clearly struggled to match his team-mate’s searing pace, but he is very highly regarded within his team, and it’s not as if he’s struggled to score points. Expect consistent points, and possibly podiums, but not regular wins.

Red Bull

Mark Webber / Sebastian Vettel
One of the most talented drivers in F1, Mark Webber has certainly been one of the perennial underachievers, generally through no fault of his own; but retains his seat this year, whereas veteran Coulthard has bowed out. Vettel, who is improving fast, will then make the step up from Red Bull’s feeder team, Toro Rosso, although ironically, Toro Rosso showed far more promise last year, indeed powering the young German to a win, whereas the Red Bull’s at times looked sluggish. Whether the move will prove a fruitful one remains to be seen.

Williams

Nico Rosberg / Kazuki Nakajima
That’s right people - nothing to see here, move along. Both Williams drivers performed a respectable job in 2008, in an average car, and they will keep their seat for 2009. Certainly 2009 will not be a return to the glory days for Frank’s cars, but expect them to trouble the top eight, and be in the hunt for podiums when the big boys hit trouble.

Toyota Jarno Trulli / Timo Glock
Trulli has been in F1 now for over ten years, but has been in the form of his life over the last year, and is still one of the demons of the qualifying hour, expect him to rack up numerous top six starts; and consistent running in the races should see him in the hunt for points. Glock has disappointed in his first season, but shown some flashes of brilliance – if he can drive consistently then he can become one for the future. Toyota are getting impatient for wins, but unless they encounter a huge slice of luck, then I don’t see them having the out and out power to take on the likes of Ferrari and McLaren, and may also struggle against the likes of BMW and Renault.

Renault Fernando Alonso / Nelson Piquet Jnr

Although much of 2008 was spent speculating the next move of former double World Champion Fernando Alonso, he will ironically stay put in 2009. Where would he go anyway? Not back to McLaren, nor to Ferrari, whose line-up is locked down. By the end of 2008 Renault had improved its car significantly, including back to back wins for Alonso, expect him to match this in 2009, but I fail to see enough sustained effort to mount a serious title challenge. The much pilloried Piquet Jnr, with big boots to fill had a torrid start to 2008, and will have some heavy demands on his young shoulders. Despite his years experience, I worry for his future in F1, and I believe should he suffer a similar start to 2009, he could well be joining the dole queue as an early casualty in the drivers market.

Brawn G.P. (Formerly Honda)

Jenson Button / Rubens Barrichello
Little over a month ago, the future of the Honda team was in jeopardy, with ownership in limbo and doubts over whether the team would be on the grid in any shape or form. However, something of a relevation in the last of the pre-season testing, Brawn G.P. have been indecently quick out of the box, with both Button and most senior driver on the grid, Barrichello topping near enough every session they have taken part in. However, doubts over the legality of their rear diffuser / wing setup have been rearing their heads, and should they be asked to modify these fundamental items, then they could well be staring at the rear wings of the tail end charlies. If I am proved wrong, then I will gladly hang my head in shame, but I envisage midfield obscurity, along with a generous helping of non-finishes for a team which could well struggle for funding as the toll of the year wears on.

Toro Rosso

Sebastien Bourdais / Sebastien Buemi

Bourdais will probably get one more year to adapt to F1, so he will be looking to repeat the promise we saw in his debut race last season, before ending up with a long and torrid season; Bourdais is a talented driver on the North American ovals, but F1 has once again numbed the reputation of these Indy drivers, as it did with Michael Andretti and Juan-Pablo Montoya. With the departure of Sebastian Vettel, it was widely tipped that Ayrton Senna’s nephew Bruno would have taken the seat. The team is part-owned by Gerhard Berger, who was a great friend of Ayrton’s and therefore is also close to Bruno. However the seat has gone to former Red Bull test driver Sebastien Buemi, 19 of Switzerland. Expect some raw speed, but also a few visits into the scenary for both drivers ! It would be highly unlikely that Toro Rosso will have the talent and luck on their side to revisit the top stop of the podium this season.

Force India

Giancarlo Fisichella / Adrian Sutil

Despite the wealth and publicity generated from the wealthy owner of this team, they look set to stay as the favourite underachievers of F1, particularly following the demise of Super Aguri last season. Fisichella is fast in qualifying trim, but has lacked interest and consistency in the races. If Sutil can keep his car on the road, then he is capable of scraping the odd point if things are going bad for those around him.

Some F1 fancies to finish with:

Australian G.P.
Bizzarely, Jenson Button is clear favourite to take the win; and I see no value here at all. Despite all of the pre-season hype that Ferrari and McLaren will be off the pace, I can see value in a Ferrari win; with Felipe Massa available at a widely available 6/1 (V.C., William Hill, Blue Square) and Kimi Raikkonen at 5/1 (V.C., William Hill, Boylesports, Coral). If you fancy erring on the side of caution then maybe betting on a podium finish will be more your thing ? BMW Sauber have a capable line up, and look on the pace in pre-season testing. Nick Heidfeld is available at a best priced 13/2 with Bet365, or at a huge price of 11/1, McLaren’s Heikki Kovaleinen is available with Sporting Bet, which has to be worth a punt of anyone’s hard earned.

Outright Betting
I cannot look beyond Kimi Raikkonen for the title this year – he is available at 4/1 with most of the high street bookies. However, perhaps you fancy a little more value, so to look at some of the other bets available. For example, Bet365 offer a market for the highest scoring driver without Ferrari, McLaren and BMW drivers. At a tempting 18/1 is Nico Rosberg, and 20/1 Jarno Trulli, which, should Brawn GP and Renault prove disappointing, will reward excellent payouts, as those drivers are capable of scoring consistent points and pushing for podiums when the big boys are having a bad day.

Good luck to everyone, let’s hope this season is a memorable one for the right reasons.

Thanks for reading,
Mountain Man

Early Grand National Bets

Dom will like this as I've gone for my selections on well known trends.
I pulled this off another forum but there are various other similar threads to back this up. If you plug in the figures I come out with 3 horses to back

Character Building - 14/1 @ Stan James
Rambling Minster -14/1 @ Coral
Brooklyn Brownie 50/1@ Betfair


I have backed all 3 already and expect the prices of all to come down by the day and think I have a real chance of getting a winner here.I dont intend on backing anything else.

Trip

Again well known and very logical – must have won a chase over at least 3 miles. Even further is preferable. 100% of winners in last 20 years.

Number of runs in season

Must have had between 4 and 6 runs in the current season. Not so good if you go back 20 years with a 2, a 7 and 2 8s in there, but nothing with 0 or 1 run (Mely Moss came close). Stands to a reason that we want a horse that is race fit, but....

Number of wins in season

Must not have won more than once in the current season. We want a horse that is fit, but has not had too hard a season (or had its handicap mark ruined). Six of the last ten winners had not won a race in their winning season. But having said that....

Recent Form

OK, this is slightly tenuous, since not all 3rd places finishes are of equal merit. On the bare stats however, every winner in the last 20 years had managed at least one 3rd place finish in their last 3 outings. Most of course had managed considerably better than that. I think the main merit of this trend is that it enables one to throw out horses that might look well handicapped on old form but have no kind of recent form at all.

Days since last run

Must have run between 20 and 50 days prior to the race. OK, there is probably a bit of backfitting to this trend, but only Rough Quest (16 days) has defied it in the last 20 years. The highest number is actually 49 but I rounded it up. Only 3 had a gap of greater than 36 days before the race.

Previous Grand National runs

Must not have finished unplaced or pulled up in a previous renewal of the race. Only Amberleigh House has finished beaten (3rd) and gone on to win. 5 others in the last 20 years have failed to complete in a variety of manners (B,F,U) including Royal Athlete in the void race. But if you weren’t good enough to win before, it is unlikely to be good enough to win now (I know Red Marauder was out the back when he fell, but the stat stands)

OK, that covers the trends that have been 100% accurate in the last 10 years. Now we come on to the 80% and 90% trends, plus some more nefarious trends that are 100% but (in my opinion) not so important.

Weight

Must carry under 11-0 (90%). Unlike some, I am not going to move the weight up to 11-1 to account for Hedgehunter’s win. Personally I still believe there are sound reasons why horses will struggle to carry a big weight and one blip does not change the fundamental argument. The distribution of weights carried is massively in favour of horses carrying low weights.

Field Size

Must have won a chase with a field of over 12 runners (90%). Bindaree had only beaten 7 and Lord Gyllene only 10 (that was more than 10 years ago). Stands to reason that you want a horse that can handle the hurly-burly of a big field.

Value of win

Must have won a race worth at least GBP 17,000 (sorry, no pound sign on keyboard). All of the last 10 winners have achieved this. However, it was failure to meet this trend that caused me to rule McKelvey out of my final 4 2 years ago thereby costing me the tricast; I therefore do not like the trend and I am demoting it. In all seriousness, there is obviously validity it to it, it just feels a bit secondary to the weight / age / form stats.

Must not be French bred

F1 Preview Part 1 - Technical Stuff

With the dawn of another Formula One World Championship season upon us once more, it looks set to be one of the most unpredictable. I am hesitant to say exciting, as F1 often promises much in its pre-season hype, but more often than not fails to deliver excitement as every second Sunday we are treated to a ninety minute parade of cars driving around some featureless autodromes with less overtaking opportunities than on a single track country lane in rural Lincolnshire.

Year after year, the blundering beaks at the F.I.A. endeavour to inject excitement into what is the Blue Riband event of Motorsport by implementing a plethora of new rules and regulations, and this season is no different, with a whole host of technical changes being introduced in the hope of increasing overtaking opportunities and creating closer racing.

Firstly, and perhaps most controversially, is the new points scoring system, which was only finalised ten days ago. Although the points scoring system will remain the same as it has done since 2003, with 10 points for a win, 8 for second etc down to a point for eighth place; the Drivers World Championship will be decided solely on who scores the greatest number of wins. That is to say if, for example, Massa scored 132 points and 6 wins, whereas Hamilton scored 126 points and 7 wins, Hamilton would be crowned champion. The reasoning behind this is to encourage drivers to push for race wins rather than tour round scoring consistent points. The logic sounds promising enough – maybe drivers will take more risks in going for the wins rather than settling for a safe second or third. However, my feeling is that in a field of 20 cars, where little more than half finish the race distance on average, that paying points down to eighth place is rewarding endurance, rather than out and out wheel to wheel racing. Why not revert back to merely paying out the top six, and have points for the win significantly higher than those for second place ? Incidentally, the Constructors Championships will still be decided simply upon the total number of points amassed rather than the number of wins scored.

Now onto the technical changes. Firstly, and in my opinion, a welcome change for 2009, sees the use of slick tyres which had been outlawed since 1998. Once again, tyres will be supplied solely by Bridgestone, and like last year, both soft and hard compound tyres will have to be used in race trim, slicks in theory offer more grip allowing for higher cornering speeds, owing to more rubber being on the road than with the previous grooved tyres. Complex aerodynamic changes have also been introduced, to put it most simply, front wings will be lower and wider, whilst the rear ones will be higher and narrower. The aims of this are, in theory to lower aerodynamic grip, and coupled with the slick tyres, which should increase mechanical grip, will allow for easier wheel to wheel racing which should see cars pull off overtaking manoeuvres more frequently. Another new feature is that drivers will be able to adjust their front wings by up to 6 degrees to allow for aerodynamic change (e.g. to lower downforce on fast straights) but this will be allowed only twice per lap. Quite how this will be implemented and monitored I fail to see, but will certainly listen with interest when such an item is revealed.

The “K.E.R.S.” system has been much talked of, and has caused no end of problems for numerous teams during pre-season testing; and it is thought only one or two teams will take advantage of using it in Australia. The idea of K.E.R.S. is a revolutionary one, which is a regenerative braking device, which stores some of the cars kinetic energy, which would normally be diffused as heat under braking (i.e. when you see the carbon brake discs glowing red hot). The recovered energy will be stored in a capacitor, battery or mechanically on a flywheel. Ingeniously, this stored power will be able to be used as an incremental boost under acceleration, controlled by the driver, giving an increase of around 80BHP for a regulated six seconds.

There is much less development and testing time at the teams disposal this season, gone are the three and four day tests at the likes of Barcelona, Monza and Jerez, in favour of eight days testing on straight airfields. Also severely restricted is the use of wind tunnels, and engines must last now for three races instead of two (otherwise grid penalties will be imposed). Also, drivers are limited to using no more than eight engines in total throughout the season, to aid their reliability, their RPM has been reduced from 19,000 to 18,000.

From a purely personal perspective, I am delighted that terrestrial coverage of F1 will revert to the BBC. No more commercials in the middle of races ! My hopes for the season are that it will be fair rather than farce; and that races are settled on the track and not in the court room.

Coming soon will be my guide to teams and drivers taking part this season; along with my tips for the titles and for the Australian Grand Prix, which is the opening round, this Sunday 29th March.

Thanks For Reading,
Mountain Man

Quick Update From Me

Well I hope everyone enjoyed Cheltenham and had a profitable week ? I will openly admit to avoiding the bookies, fun competitions and sweepstakes due to my poor record in the past and lack of disposable funds !

I have been steadily playing some very low stakes STT's on 'Stars after a fairly lengthy lay off. Mainly PL Omaha8 and NLH single table tournaments, with some steady, if not spectacular top three placings to try to build a bit of a roll up again. It's certainly slow progress, but I have got from a roll of $8.46 up to just shy of $50.

My sports betting has also been on the back burner recently, but I have been observing the Six Nations recently with a keen eye, and am glad I haven't been dabbling on those games with some pretty unpredictable scorelines, certainly didn't see the frogs being squashed so convincingly by the English. Expect another English victory in the forthcoming Calcutta Cup clash. Also I cannot look beyond Wales for the title, I think they will have enough in the tank to see off the Irish, much as it pains me to say it.

I am also working on a preview for the forthcoming Formula One season, which begins in Australia on the 29th March. Although motorsport betting is not everyone's cup of tea, I will post it up for all to see with my predictions.

Finally I would like to wish all Scoop Troop members who are attending DUSoP a great week of fun, and bring a few bracelets back !

Until then I will leave you in peace ! Thanks for reading,
Mountain Man

ORLY

Everything is Possible - Watch more amazing videos here

Cheltenham Preview - Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle

The Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle. Ten hurdles over two miles and five furlongs, for novices aged four and above. A real clash between speed and stamina, winners of the race take very different career paths. The 2009 renewal is a difficult one to sort out.

This used to be an easy puzzle to solve – back the favourite. In recent years however, the race has been a little more open, with SPs ranging from 6/1 to 20/1. That said, of the outsiders with odds of 25/1 since 1997, only six have placed and none have won, while the average SP from the last eleven renewals is just over 7/1, so we shouldn’t be looking too far away from the favourites.

Age is important, with 21 of the last 23 winners being five or six years old; of the two that weren’t, one was four and one was seven. Nothing younger than five has won since 1991. Six year olds have won two-thirds of the last fifteen races, so they edge it over the five year olds.

Last time out form is also important, with nine of the last ten winners having placed top two last time out. Furthermore, nine out of the last ten winners had won at least 50% of their career starts over hurdles.

The last ten renewals were taken down by horses boasting a Racing Post Rating of 145 or more, while nine of the last ten winners have won at a trip of at least two miles four furlongs.

These trends allow us to reduce the field to six, but from here it is very difficult to pick a winner.

I can’t take Wendel (right), as he just doesn’t look good enough. He only scrapes in on trends based on the fact that he won a race over two miles four, but he stole ten lengths at the start to do that and was later beaten 27 lengths by Knockara Beau, who is nothing special himself. At a best price 25/1 (William Hill), Knockara Beau seems to me to be at his best on sharper tracks and I just can’t see him winning, with some of the class in this field.

I really like the look of the unbeaten from six Diamond Harry (left) under one of my favourite jockeys, Timmy Murphy. The worry is though, he has a tendency to hang left and although he’s proven to stay this trip, you don’t want to see a horse hanging under pressure, especially not at Cheltenham. For that reason alone, given the other classy contenders in the race, I can’t have him. As he’s already held Bensalem (at Cheltenham too) then I have to rule him out as well. Another negative is his win in the Challow Hurdle – all eleven winners to run in this race have been beaten.

Karabak is favourite with a lot of the bookmakers and he does appear to have a great chance. Proven at Cheltenham, the only doubt for me is the second place behind Mad Max, who I’ve already ruled out, but Alan King horses often improve race by race and he definitely has come on since then. If he improves any further, he will be very hard to beat. It’s worth noting that although he was well held that day, “Choc” Thornton never actually applied the whip on the run in.

Mikael D’Haguenet, should he take his chance, looks very good indeed having won three of the Ballymore Properties trial races. Should we get the forecast softer ground, this will only improve his chances; his trainer has actually stated that he won’t run unless the ground is soft. He looks a real classy sort, proven on a variety of testing, undulating tracks and he goes well left handed – he is only five years old though.

I find it hard to separate these two, but given that Karabak (right) already has a Cheltenham run under his belt, he seems the safer option. I will definitely leave it until the day to bet, if I bet at all, to see how much rain we’ve had. Although Karabak is fine on Good to Soft, he’s never run on anything softer, so that could work doubly in the favour of Mikael D’Haguenet, who is a definite mudlark.

Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle
Wednesday March 11th, 14:05
Karabak
1 point win

Cheltenham Preview - RSA Chase

The RSA Chase, previously known as the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, is run over 3 miles 110 yards, features nineteen fences and is open to novices aged five and older. The testing Cheltenham track coupled with the stamina sapping trip and fast pace makes this a tricky race for the novice chaser and sadly, many trainers will target festivals later in the year with their best staying novices. That said, the line up for the 2009 renewal is not exactly weak and we should enjoy a good race.

It is important to note that six year olds struggle in the race as they tend to be outstayed by the older, stronger horses and seven of the last ten winners have been aged seven. Just two six year olds have won the race in the last thirty years and no horse aged nine or older has won the race for sixteen years – age is a key trend in the RSA.

As with a lot of the Cheltenham Festival events, last time out form is very important. Just one horse in the last 22 renewals has won after finishing out of the top two in their previous race and that was Hanakham, who ran third behind two future Gold Cup winners.

Another fact to note is that nine out of the last ten winners had run at least three times over fences, which when coupled with the other trends, allows us to thin out the nineteen strong field significantly, leaving us with Jaunty Flight, Siegemaster, Massini’s Maguire, Horner Woods, Cooldine and Casey Jones.

Although Casey Jones won the Knight Frank Chase, the race hasn’t proven to be much of a trial for the RSA and besides which, he’s a little inconsistent and his jumping is suspect. Siegemaster was comfortably held in that race and doesn’t look to have progressed this season, so I feel quite confident in ruling out the pair.

Massini’s Maguire is yet to totally prove himself beyond two miles and five and a bad jump cost him his last race. I’m not looking to back a horse at Cheltenham that has issues with both jumping and stamina. Horner Woods is another with a question mark over stamina, having never run further than a mile and a half and doesn’t appear to jump all that well either. At a best price 66/1 (William Hill), the market speaks volumes.

Mares don’t have a great record in the race, with just one winner in at least 20 years and Jaunty Flight doesn’t look like being the next Brief Gale. Again, available at 100/1 (Sporting Bet) I’ll let the market do the talking for me on this one.

That just leaves the market leader then. The Willie Mullins trained Cooldine (top right) looked impressive in the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase, a trial that produced RSA winner Florida Pearl (left) in 1998, trained by one W P Mullins. Although the record of the Irish in the RSA is generally bad, Mullins has twice won this race in ten years and looks to have a great chance of making it three. Stamina will not be an issue here and the forecast soft ground will be welcome.

RSA Chase
Wednesday 11th March, 14:40
Cooldine
2 points win

Cheltenham Tipster Competition

First of all, thanks for these previews Dom - very interesting.

We ran a tipster comp for last year's Cheltenham festival which proved to be very good banter so me and Dom thought we should have another this year.

Fairly basic format - Every day of the festival (Tuesday 10th - Firday 13th) you get a virtual £100 to spend on a minimum of 3 bets and you must spend the entire £100. All bets must be posted in a single post before the start of the first race of the day, no editing. Person with the most profit come the end of the day Friday scoops the loot. Think that's everything.

£10 entry. Money to be given to me asap.

Who's in? Would be good to get a good few.

Scott
Dom

Noobs may find this handy - http://www.skybet.com/help/horse_racing.shtm

Cheltenham Preview - Champion Hurdle

The Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle was won three years in succession by the great Istabraq. Three other horses have completed hat-tricks in the event, while several other horses have back to back wins to their credit. The biggest hurdling event of National Hunt season, this year the talk is all of one horse: Binocular (right). I’m not so sure.

As I alluded to, the race has produced several repeat winners and a major trend to the race is winners who have previous Cheltenham form, with sixteen of the last twenty winners having won at the track. The Prestbury Park undulations are notoriously testing and some horses just never take to them. For this reason, we should be looking at horses with previous Cheltenham successes to their name and unfortunately, this rules out Binocular.

Binocular should have won last year, in the Supreme Novices’, but was outstayed by stablemate Captain Cee Bee. “Choc” Thornton said that the winner hadn’t really enjoyed the softer ground and the current forecast suggests the going may again be on the softer side. This doesn’t appear to bother Nicky Henderson, who says that Binocular will be alright as he’s been on soft before, but in my opinion he’s never had a stern test in the mud. If the favourite can be outstayed by a horse that doesn’t really like softer ground, is he really going to fancy another scrap on a tough track, in unfavourable conditions? In a field this size, there’s no just value in the 13/8 widely offered by the high street layers.

So what do we oppose him with? Could Katchit (left) be yet another to successfully defend the title? I suspect not, as there’s a trend toward last time out winners, with 22 of the last 25 winners taking gold in their latest race and Katchit hasn’t won since his triumph this time last year. It is worth noting however, that his three runs since then have all been at sharp, right handed tracks, worlds apart from the left handed galloping course that is Cheltenham, where his record reads well: five wins and one second from six starts (including two out of two at the Cheltenham Festival). For that reason alone, he could be worth a small each way tickle at a best price 16/1 (Bet365).

Another major trend to the race is that seventeen of the last eighteen Champion Hurdles were won by a horse in the top six of the betting. Knowing that and factoring in the other trends, the most likely winner of the 2009 Champion Hurdle is Celestial Halo (10/1 with many firms, including William Hill and Coral). Last seen winning a Listed race (on soft ground) at the end of January, a race which included Champion Hurdle third favourite Osana (right), he had twice been well beaten by Binocular, but I think that in a much larger field on a much more testing track, we could see that form reversed. Although Celestial Halo only has the one win at Cheltenham, it is a 100% strike rate and he has wins at Newbury (on soft ground) and Newcastle among others, both testing left handed tracks, so he ought to be able to prove that it was no fluke.

In short then, as good as Binocular looks, there’s simply no value in backing him, especially with the doubts surrounding his ability to get stuck in on a testing track on potentially soft ground. The obvious choice to oppose him with, for me at least, is Celestial Halo, but don’t discount last year’s winner in a race known for throwing up multiple winners.

Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle
Tuesday 10th March, 15:20
Celestial Halo - 1 point e/w
Katchit - 0.5 points e/w

Cheltenham Preview - Supreme Novices' Hurdle

The Cheltenham Festival is just days away and the famous roar that heralds the beginning of the celebrated meeting will soon be upon us. What better place to start my Cheltenham previews than at the very beginning, with the first event of the 2009 Festival, the WilliamHill.com Supreme Novices’ Hurdle?

From a punting perspective, the race can be a tricky one to nail down as there are no real trends to go on in terms of the market, with horses priced 6/1, 40/1 and 17/2 (Captain Cee Bee, left) taking down the last three renewals – anything can cross the line in first place. If you do like a longshot, you needn’t be too afraid to back your fancy at a generous price.

So what trends are there to consider, if the market isn’t such a great guide? One that immediately jumps out is last time out form, as twelve of the last thirteen winners of the Supreme Novices’ were last time out winners, a stat further boosted by the fact that 33 of the last 39 winners of Cheltenham Festival novice hurdle events were featured a 1 at the end of the form.

Lightly raced hurdlers do well in the event, with half of the last sixteen winners having run no more than twice over hurdles. Using these trends, the field can be reduced to Torphichen and Ruthenoise, both trained by Martin Pipe. With Ruthenoise widely quoted 50/1 (66/1 best price, Stan James) we should be safe to rule it out of contention. Although it is often worth punting on a longshot in the Supreme Novices’, a line needs to be drawn somewhere and it should be noted that only one horse has placed at odds of 50/1 or greater, since 1997.

Torphichen appears to be the choice of trends at first glance then, but another very important trend goes against the chestnut gelding – age. Only one horse aged four years old has won this race in the last 34 years, the vast majority of these winners being aged five or six. Binocular so nearly won this race last year aged four and the one horse that did take the event down recently was trained by the father of Torphichen’s trainer, so perhaps there is something for his supporters to hold onto there.

I think the way to go from here is to consider those horses to have run three times over hurdles, few enough to be considered lightly raced, which brings Kempes and Micheal Flips into the equation. It is well known that many horses simply don’t get on with Cheltenham and it’s inherent difficulties, horses for courses and all that, so I’d be inclined to side with Kempes, as the six year old has recent wins at Navan and Leopardstown (both left handed, galloping tracks like Cheltenham) as well as other wins on undulating courses such as Fairyhouse and Gowran Park. Micheal Flips has no such experience, allowing me to rule him out.

Another positive for Kempes is his trainer, Willie Mullins. The Irishman has trained the winner twice in the last thirteen years, including Ebaziyan (right) in 2007. The Irish raiders do have a good record in the race, with ten of the last seventeen and indeed six of the last nine winners, being trained in Ireland.

So what of the big favourite, Cousin Vinny? Also trained by Mullins, the gelding is ruled out on the major last time out trend, as he unseated his rider (plus he’s run seven times over hurdles) but it’s worth noting that he travelled very well and looked to have the eventual winner in his pocket, before the unseating of Mullins Junior (left). Last year’s Champion Bumper win shows he can take the course and the attributes to do well seem to be there, but at a generally available best price of 5/2, there is really no value at all, especially considering the trends that he does fall down on.

For me then, Torphichen must be a good each way bet at a current best price 7/1 (Sporting Bet) but Kempes looks best value of all at 12/1 with the sponsors. Sadly, this is the Racing Post’s Pricewise ante-post tip and most of the massive prices about the selection have gone, but it does seem to me, to be the most likely winner of what should be an intriguing Festival opener.

WilliamHill.com Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Tuesday 10th March, 13:30
Kempes
1 point e/w

Edinburgh Circus Casino Trip

I was alerted to the £20+£20 tourn that the Edinburgh Circus hold on a Sunday by bazzabhoy on the blonde forums as they were adding £500 if they made 45 runners. Thought it would be worth the short trip so I enlisted the company of Gav Brown, The Magician and fellow Trooper Ken to travel through.

First stop was Tesco for petrol and smunch - luckily there was some promotions wifey handing out free choco trifle things on departure. She hooked me up with a good 10 and luckily they were half fat which meant I could scoop double the amount I would normally, or whatever. The Magician's car was making terrible noises as we left the petrol pumps and I was quietly scared that I may die. I didn't though.

We seemed to be making it in decent time when the Tandoori Hot pizza from Dominos I ate the previous night decides to play up and we have to stop at the next services. Ken needed to spew anyway cos he couldn't handle the drinkage. I feel better but had brutal ring sting, ouch.

Registration closes at 3.45 and we only get there about that time and after joining the casino it's nearer 4 before we hit the cardroom. We have to wait til the tourn starts to get a seat. I wasn't confident of the £500 being added considering they only had 10 the previous week but was pleasantly surprised to see the 4 of us tipped it over the line and the tourn eventually had 47 runners and in the end generated a decent £2300 price pool.

Gav blows about £80 playing Blackjack against a dealer on an incred heater.

The tourn starts and I sit back first ten mins and it's fairly obv the table is full of a mixture of terrible poker players and noobs. I'm dealt AA fairly early, was nice, and 3bet an early raise from 200 to 750 with blinds at 25/50 - the guy calls and then fires the 852r flop, calls my raise, check calls my turn bet, and then bet/folds river with 1010 to leave himself like 800 from 4k stack. WP sir. Fairly sure this guy went on to win the tourn as he had half the chips in play from two tables out. Very next hand I'm dealt KK and scoop another decent pot. No one at the table raises pre-flop so I continue to dominate and have something like 17k at the break after adding on which was decent. The rebuy/add-on was two 1 hour levels of 25/50 and 50/100. Decent, but I'd rather 40 mins as they cut drastically down to 25mins after break when they could easily be 30-40mins.

After the break I double up in a comedy hand - I raise T8o to 600 from late position at 100/200. Wifey in SB calls and BB gets out the way. Flop comes 97Qr and she check raises my 700 bet to something like 2200. I'm playing nigh on 20k and her 16k so I call. Turn is the jack and I fist pump real hard as I think she has KQ or QJ. She fires I raise and we get it all in. She declares 2 pair but is hiding her hand and since it's self deal the dealer fires the river out fairly quickly which is another jack. I think about what is the best method for killing her before noticing she has 97o. This is where it gets funny as she stares at my hand and then goes off on a rant about how I'd raised with shit, called with nothing on the flop and got lucky. Hmmm. I probably said something fairly funny back but it escapes me now plus I didn't want to mess with her as she looked like she might know someone who could beat me up. Anyway, WP dear for calling my raise with 97o from SB. Advanced.

I make final but am super short as the guy with half the chips was sitting directly to my right two tables out and was finding premiums every hand to deny me the chance to get my chips in. Structure was super fast and I'm grinding 10bbs like mad. Manage to double 56h v. AJ but bust in 7th for my money back-ish when I shove Q8s and SB wakes up with a boner and KK, must be nice.

Magicman decides it would be sensible to pay for the parking with my 5er even though parking is free so I make a loss there. I catch some shut eye on the car trip home.

Decent tournament in a nice casino. Would be better with slight tweaks to the structure and of course it was dealer dealt but we can't have everything we want. Read earlier on blonde that this Sunday will be the last time they add £500 despite advertising it for a 4 week run. Bastards.

Fuck me, this is probably far too big a post and no one will read it anyway so whatever. Few last points: I'm off work Tuesday to Friday for the Festival (wooooo) so everyone feel free to hit mine up on Friday for Gold Cup beers, and me and Dom will run a tipster comp like last year (details to come later).

Scott

P.S. Please go see Gran Torino at the cinema. Brilliant film. Can't recommend it enough.

Some random stuff

Been awfully quiet round here lately. I know Scott’s been betting on dogs, but I see nothing on here. What’s everyone else been up to?

I had a break from gambling, enforced by chronic skintness, but have eased myself back into it with that little bit of value betting on the RP chase. I had my first bets since then today, but more on that later.

Cheltenham in five days! It’s going to be immense. Some sort of tipping game needs to be organised, perhaps Tim could sort something out as his inactivity is bordering on Adnan-esque levels. Really looking forward to going down there for the second day, the more I think about it, the more I can see Master Minded being on the receiving end of a shock. I’m going to try and preview some races in the next few days, but time will dictate how much I do; at the very least there will be a full report on my day. For anyone who doesn’t know already, nearly all the bookies are doing non-runner no bet on ante-post Cheltenham markets now, really no excuse not to look at gobbling up some of the big prices on offer.

I noted with sadness last week, that Matt Doyle has got himself a PR job with someone or other, I forget who, and as such is no longer tipping for ATR. His last week was shit and he’s been off the boil for a while, but Hugh Taylor is his replacement and when he’s filled in for him in the past, he’s always won me money. I may have found a new hero! I’m keeping a track of his results and he’s started well. His first pick was unluckily beaten (a more positive ride needed next time out for Sounds of Jupiter) and he scored a 6/1 winner yesterday.

I followed his bets today and the two that ran both won well, one at 11/8 (got on bigger ofc) and the other at 5/1 (I actually only took 4.7, it came in a bit but went right out before the off); using SPs, he’s up 8.375 points from 5 picks. I had a third bet of my own choosing, 5/1 about Killfinnan Castle (SP 4/1) who hacked up by 11 lengths. Welcome bankroll building in time for Chelters.

Get well soon Hayley Turner, who had a nasty fall at Newmarket the other day while out riding work. Although I’ve long forgiven her for costing me billions, she’s still not a patch on Kirsty Milczarek, who I note with interest is back from her spell in the US (complete with a personal trainer, apparently) and although she’s not had a ride yet, I’ll be looking out for her as ever this coming flat season.

Speaking of which, how bad a beat is this? Work have got a load of half price tickets for the Lincoln, apparently to develop our “expertise”. £14 to get in the posh stand at Donny, how sweet is that? Bad beat for me, I’m travelling back from Dundee that day, aren’t I? There’s no way I can make it, what a shitter.

One last thing. You're probably all aware that the BBC is cutting the racing coverage massively, a disaster for the sport. William Hill CEO Ralph Topping led the complaints by writing an open letter to the Beeb and most major bookies are getting behind the cause. I've heard talk of putting petitions in shops. For now though, get this bad boy signed.

Right, that’s about everything I wanted to say. Take it easy folks.