Cheltenham 2010: Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The Ladbrokes World Hurdle is run on Cheltenham’s New Course, over a distance of three miles, featuring twelve hurdles. Horses aged four or older can take part and this year’s hot favourite (best price on offer 8/13, from William Hill and SportingBet) is the defending champion, the Paul Nicholls trained Big Buck’s (see right).

There are sixteen hopefuls lined up for this year’s World Hurdle, but that number can be halved if we look at the last time out form of the last ten winners of the race. By last ten winners, I am going back to 1996 – Inglis Drever and Baracouda won the race five years out of the last ten, so I’m just looking at their stats for the first time they won the World Hurdle. But yeah, looking at LTO form for the last ten winners, eight had finished in the first two and four from the last five were LTO winners.

No five year old has won the World Hurdle and only one horse older than nine has achieved the feat. Nine year olds don’t have a great record, with only four winners in the last 35 years and two of those were repeat winners. Eight year olds don’t fare much better, with five winners in thirty years; two of those were repeat winners too. It looks like six and seven year olds are best placed to make a challenge to Big Buck’s then.

Time For Rupert (left) and Karabak are the only two that adhere to the above profile (though Big Buck’s himself also fits the bill).

Of the two, Karabak would tempt me the most, in terms of a potential winner. My pick for last year’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, the bay gelding finished second in that race. Although none of the last ten World Hurdle winners had any winning Cheltenham Festival form (again, not including the repeat winners, who obviously did) six of them had placed at a previous Festival, five of those finishing in second place.

Karabak (left) is yet to score over three miles, unlike Time For Rupert, but half of the last ten winners had also never won over three miles prior to their first World Hurdle win, so I don’t see that as a massive problem. He dug in well and stuck on gamely after messing up the final hurdle in the rescheduled Long Walk, suggesting that he gets the trip and is up for the challenge. In truth, he’s probably still progressing. Whether he can progress enough to beat Big Buck’s, I’m not sure, but at a best price 15/2 (Coral, e/w terms first three, a quarter the odds) it really does look like an each way bet to nothing.

In terms of value, Time For Rupert (right) looks a nice bet too. The best price 20/1 (widely available) looks insulting for a horse than has winning course and distance form, appears to act on all types of ground, is being targeted solely at this race and that ran second in the Cleeve Hurdle, giving the winner 4lbs in the process. This is surely overpriced and Coral’s 14/1 seems a lot nearer the mark.

I have to say, Big Buck’s does look the most likely winner of the race. The World Hurdle has thrown up five repeat winners in the last ten years and this year’s hot favourite has all the form in the book and rightly heads the market. For the casual punter though, 8/13 is no fun, so I’d fancy taking it on with both Time For Rupert and Karabak. As previously mentioned, the latter seems a genuine bet to nothing and the former seems insultingly overpriced.

Hell, why not thrown in a cheeky combination tricast, just for fun?

The World Hurdle sponsors are offering a £25 free bet to all new accounts - why not sign up and take advantage of the offer to back Karabak?

Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Thursday 18th March, 15.20
Karabak 2.5pts e/w

Time For Rupert 0.5 pts e/w

Cheltenham Preview - Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle

The Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle. Ten hurdles over two miles and five furlongs, for novices aged four and above. A real clash between speed and stamina, winners of the race take very different career paths. The 2009 renewal is a difficult one to sort out.

This used to be an easy puzzle to solve – back the favourite. In recent years however, the race has been a little more open, with SPs ranging from 6/1 to 20/1. That said, of the outsiders with odds of 25/1 since 1997, only six have placed and none have won, while the average SP from the last eleven renewals is just over 7/1, so we shouldn’t be looking too far away from the favourites.

Age is important, with 21 of the last 23 winners being five or six years old; of the two that weren’t, one was four and one was seven. Nothing younger than five has won since 1991. Six year olds have won two-thirds of the last fifteen races, so they edge it over the five year olds.

Last time out form is also important, with nine of the last ten winners having placed top two last time out. Furthermore, nine out of the last ten winners had won at least 50% of their career starts over hurdles.

The last ten renewals were taken down by horses boasting a Racing Post Rating of 145 or more, while nine of the last ten winners have won at a trip of at least two miles four furlongs.

These trends allow us to reduce the field to six, but from here it is very difficult to pick a winner.

I can’t take Wendel (right), as he just doesn’t look good enough. He only scrapes in on trends based on the fact that he won a race over two miles four, but he stole ten lengths at the start to do that and was later beaten 27 lengths by Knockara Beau, who is nothing special himself. At a best price 25/1 (William Hill), Knockara Beau seems to me to be at his best on sharper tracks and I just can’t see him winning, with some of the class in this field.

I really like the look of the unbeaten from six Diamond Harry (left) under one of my favourite jockeys, Timmy Murphy. The worry is though, he has a tendency to hang left and although he’s proven to stay this trip, you don’t want to see a horse hanging under pressure, especially not at Cheltenham. For that reason alone, given the other classy contenders in the race, I can’t have him. As he’s already held Bensalem (at Cheltenham too) then I have to rule him out as well. Another negative is his win in the Challow Hurdle – all eleven winners to run in this race have been beaten.

Karabak is favourite with a lot of the bookmakers and he does appear to have a great chance. Proven at Cheltenham, the only doubt for me is the second place behind Mad Max, who I’ve already ruled out, but Alan King horses often improve race by race and he definitely has come on since then. If he improves any further, he will be very hard to beat. It’s worth noting that although he was well held that day, “Choc” Thornton never actually applied the whip on the run in.

Mikael D’Haguenet, should he take his chance, looks very good indeed having won three of the Ballymore Properties trial races. Should we get the forecast softer ground, this will only improve his chances; his trainer has actually stated that he won’t run unless the ground is soft. He looks a real classy sort, proven on a variety of testing, undulating tracks and he goes well left handed – he is only five years old though.

I find it hard to separate these two, but given that Karabak (right) already has a Cheltenham run under his belt, he seems the safer option. I will definitely leave it until the day to bet, if I bet at all, to see how much rain we’ve had. Although Karabak is fine on Good to Soft, he’s never run on anything softer, so that could work doubly in the favour of Mikael D’Haguenet, who is a definite mudlark.

Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle
Wednesday March 11th, 14:05
Karabak
1 point win