Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts

Tuesday, 16 March 2010

Trip to Ayr Races 13th March 2010


On Saturday past I may my first visit to the races in over 6 months. I have been to Ayr on four occasions before but each meeting was either the Ayr Gold Cup or Scottish National so the quality of racing was high. This time though despite it being a Saturday afternoon card where often you can expect a card of a high standard, this was not the case. I had a good look at the seven race card on the Friday evening and quickly realised that winners would be extremely hard to come by. I managed to highlight one or two fancies but nothing that I was particularly confident about.

As I may have mentioned in previous posts my friend Alan lives not too far away from Ayr so I drove down to his and then we caught a train into Ayr, the racecourse being just a ten minute walk or so from the centre of town. We invested in club enclosure tickets as they were only £2 more expensive than the Grandstand for this meeting and once again I have to say the facilities are extremely impressive. I would have to say facilities wise Ayr is head and shoulders above the other Scottish racecourses I have visited. Take the toilets for example which are immaculately kept and also offer Racing UK and Sky Sports news on various TV’s throughout the area. Unfortunately the price of club enclosure tickets is around £18 more when it comes to the big meetings but people do pay for that so who am I to argue about the wrongs of this.
Anyway onto the racing where the card kicked off with a 2 mile novice hurdle. Having looked at the form extensively I found it hard to have confidence in either of the favourites Drussel or Si Bien but was unable to find any potential dangers further down the field either. Therefore I decided that while Drussel was the likeliest winner, the Irish raider was too short at the offered odds of around 7/4. He did go on to take the opener in fine style but I had no regrets about sitting out this race.

The second race was a small field handicap chase where I expected Cast Iron Casey to bounce back to form. I expected odds of 8/1 but due to a combination of a key non runner and strong market support only 7/2 was available which I reluctantly took. My selection ran a decent race, finishing 3rd but was never really placed to challenge behind the winner Quito de Tresor who built a commanding lead and managed to hang on grimly in the end to land the odds for favourite backers.

The third race I did manage to identify Knockavilla as a good bet at 7/2, despite him have a trio of second place finishes to his name. I suspected a flat two miles would bring out the best in him. I would have to say having seen him travel well and then find nothing, eventually finishing third, that I would place as much trust in him as I would in Tiger Woods at a Victoria’s Secret party.
The fifth race was the most interesting for me when I looked at it at the start of the day. I liked the look of the Pauline Robson trainer novice Humbie and also was interested in Solway Ally who had shown improved form when second 2 days earlier at Carlisle. Unfortunately there were a swarm of non runners in this field including Humbie and this meant Solway Ally was sent of 5/2 fav. I was tempted to back the Liz Harrison trained seven year old but the odds coupled with the uncertainty of how much its run 2 days prior had taken out of it made it hard to play. My decision was made tougher by the fact the stable girl for the horse, who was leading her around the paddock was my pick of the paddock! Of course I don’t need to tell you that Solway Ally won and didn’t carry a penny of my hard earned cash.

Other races on the day included a competitive 2m4furlong handicap hurdle won by the Irish Raider Ramsden Boy at big odds, a 4 runner staying chase won by the 5/4 favourite Seize and the closing bumper won by the 25/1 Jim Goldie trainer outsider Wyse Hill Teabags. I wisely avoided the handicap hurdle and chase races and took a small interest in a Chris Grant trained newcomer in the bumper who ran a decent race but never looked likely to find me the elusive winner.

Overall I only played in three of the seven races, which was unusual for me but probably the right move in end despite a couple of potential selections going in. I did have a fair sized bet on Knockavilla but again a valuable lesson was learned and I really hope the new discipline I have shown recently separate blog to follow on that) will lead to a profitable time over the next few months.

After the racing it was off out in Ayr for a few drinks and a bit of nightclubbing, although given this is a betting blog I don’t suppose many readers will be too keen to read stories of my near miss in trying to pull a stunning nineteen year old. Back down to Ayr in just over 3 weeks for the Scottish National where I will be hoping for more luck on both the punting front and in bagging myself that nineteen year old. Happy punting.

Monday, 23 June 2008

Wimbledon 2008


Wimbledon 2008

And so Wimbledon is upon us again. As you all know I'm a big tennis fan and have even been down to the tournament on 2 occasions. I'm hoping over the next fortnight I can find a few winners for you all on the mens singles matches. I will try and post my bet of the day each night and mention other bets that may be worth looking out for. I have chosen to ignore the outright market as I generally don't like tying up funds for a 2 week period. While I feel Federer is great value at his current odds of 2.22 I feel there will be better opportunities to back winners at this price on a daily basis.


Tennis betting is not for everyone with both odds short and the required outlay therefore larger. However there are only 2 possible outcomes of a tennis match therefore less factors outside our control. I am a believer that a bet at any price can be value. That can mean a 1.20 shot in a tennis match being good value. Unless something really stands out at those odds though I try and steer away as I don't have the capital to make the win worthwhile. I generally prefer to find opportunities in the 1.50 and above bracket. For example today I plumped for Simone Bollelli against Alex Bogdanovic at odds of 1.74 and he duly obliged against the toothless Bogdanovic.

In tomorrows matches I have only stumbled upon one match where I see value, that of Kiefer versus Benneteau At odds of 1.52 Kiefer may not appeal to you all but I expected the odds to be closer to 1.25 so its cracking value in my book. He has superb grass court form and was a semi finalist in Halle the Wimbledon warm up tournament. He has been a bit mentally fragile at times but now in his 30s he has calmed down a little and is a trustier betting proposition than in previous years. His grass court form speaks for itself with a career record of 40 wins against 25 losses. Compare this to Benneteau's 8 wins to 13 losses and you can see why this looks such good value.


Advised
3pts Kiefer to beat Benneteau - 1.52 (Betfair)