Get On It Large!

Thursday Footie Fancies & Token Festival Fun !

Well folks, I've had a pretty grim week so far, I won't bore you with all the details, except to say it started badly with the F.1 - so near yet so far with my selections, all of whom did their best to avoid the podium, but were all about the other major points placings, just to make things more agonising. I really hope the forthcoming races prove to be more competitive and enjoyable, as the fayre served up in Bahrain can only be described as turgid.

Chelsea crashing out of Europe at the hands of Jose Mourinho's Inter Milan did little to raise my spirits on Tuesday, after a trying day working on my race bike in the workshop, during which there were several verbal exchanges with some local residents, who clearly have too much time on their hands as they criticised me endlessly for starting the engine, which was necessary and done sympathetically in the early afternoon so as not to cause a nuisance.

Sorry, I promised not to bore you, but somehow have done so. If you've got this far, then well done. Today, I am aiming to get out for a few beers via the bookies, I need some light relief from home ! As you can imagine, I have had little time to digest all of Dom's excellent Festival previews, let alone put any money down, but I cannot let Cheltenham go by without at least a small tickler, so I am aiming to be out in time to catch the last race of the day, the "Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase" at 16.40. I for one, am no racing expert, so for me, this is almost mindless gambling, opposed to the well thought out reasoned selections of the Troop's resident racing experts, but for anyone who is interested, I will be having a small stakes each way punt on both "Galant Nuit" and "Nostringsattached".

I haven't a whole heap of time (the race is off in just about an hours time or thereabouts) to check out and compare prices, but with William Hill's, whom I will be investing my hard earned, the following prices are available (currently, subject to change):

Cheltenham 16.40

Galant Nuit - 8/1
Nostringsattached - 12/1

As I said, these are purely my own fancies, and thus no one should take them too seriously. Looking at the line up, form and prices, this race could, quite simply, be the proverbial "pin in the map" job, and anyone could win it !


And now onto this evening, I will happen (for my sins) to be in the company of some Liverpool fans, and as much as I dislike the Scouse club, I guess we will have to watch the game in some seedy local hostelry. So to keep things interesting, I will be placing the following football bets today:

Juventus are generously priced at 19/10 to beat Fulham this evening in the Europa League. Although the West London club have been impressive in European competition at home, being unbeaten in 13 such games at Craven Cottage, I feel the Italian giants will be the ones to burst this bubble, despite going into this second leg tie with a 3-1 lead. Juve cannot afford to sit back and defend, as Fulham have that all-important away goal, and I fully expect both sides to go at it hammer and tongs. The main issue faced by Juventus is something of a crisis between the sticks, with both Buffon and Manninger out of this tie. Fulham themselves will also be missing key men Danny Murphy and Jonathan Greening. I'm not convinced that the Juve win will be a huge one, but an away victory none-the-less.

Liverpool simply have to win this evening to salvage any realistic chance of a trophy from what has been a torrid season by their high standards, and despite having to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg, I shall expect them to comfortably dispatch Lille within 90 minutes and qualify without too much drama. The 4/9 odds offered on the home win offer little value or interest for the small stakes gambler, but I feel confident that they can grab goals either side of half time, and am going for a Liverpool H/T & F/T result, which is available at 23/20. If Fernando Torres has his shooting boots on tonight, he could well run riot, and at 5/1 to score two or more goals, I'll be risking the price of a pint in this market too.

Summary

Juventus Win - 19/10
Liverpool Half Time/Full Time - 23/20
Torres To Score 2 or more goals - 5/1

(All prices quoted are with William Hill)

Right, I'd better get on. Good Luck all !

Thanks for reading,
Mountain Man

Trip to Ayr Races 13th March 2010

On Saturday past I may my first visit to the races in over 6 months. I have been to Ayr on four occasions before but each meeting was either the Ayr Gold Cup or Scottish National so the quality of racing was high. This time though despite it being a Saturday afternoon card where often you can expect a card of a high standard, this was not the case. I had a good look at the seven race card on the Friday evening and quickly realised that winners would be extremely hard to come by. I managed to highlight one or two fancies but nothing that I was particularly confident about.

As I may have mentioned in previous posts my friend Alan lives not too far away from Ayr so I drove down to his and then we caught a train into Ayr, the racecourse being just a ten minute walk or so from the centre of town. We invested in club enclosure tickets as they were only £2 more expensive than the Grandstand for this meeting and once again I have to say the facilities are extremely impressive. I would have to say facilities wise Ayr is head and shoulders above the other Scottish racecourses I have visited. Take the toilets for example which are immaculately kept and also offer Racing UK and Sky Sports news on various TV’s throughout the area. Unfortunately the price of club enclosure tickets is around £18 more when it comes to the big meetings but people do pay for that so who am I to argue about the wrongs of this.
Anyway onto the racing where the card kicked off with a 2 mile novice hurdle. Having looked at the form extensively I found it hard to have confidence in either of the favourites Drussel or Si Bien but was unable to find any potential dangers further down the field either. Therefore I decided that while Drussel was the likeliest winner, the Irish raider was too short at the offered odds of around 7/4. He did go on to take the opener in fine style but I had no regrets about sitting out this race.

The second race was a small field handicap chase where I expected Cast Iron Casey to bounce back to form. I expected odds of 8/1 but due to a combination of a key non runner and strong market support only 7/2 was available which I reluctantly took. My selection ran a decent race, finishing 3rd but was never really placed to challenge behind the winner Quito de Tresor who built a commanding lead and managed to hang on grimly in the end to land the odds for favourite backers.

The third race I did manage to identify Knockavilla as a good bet at 7/2, despite him have a trio of second place finishes to his name. I suspected a flat two miles would bring out the best in him. I would have to say having seen him travel well and then find nothing, eventually finishing third, that I would place as much trust in him as I would in Tiger Woods at a Victoria’s Secret party.
The fifth race was the most interesting for me when I looked at it at the start of the day. I liked the look of the Pauline Robson trainer novice Humbie and also was interested in Solway Ally who had shown improved form when second 2 days earlier at Carlisle. Unfortunately there were a swarm of non runners in this field including Humbie and this meant Solway Ally was sent of 5/2 fav. I was tempted to back the Liz Harrison trained seven year old but the odds coupled with the uncertainty of how much its run 2 days prior had taken out of it made it hard to play. My decision was made tougher by the fact the stable girl for the horse, who was leading her around the paddock was my pick of the paddock! Of course I don’t need to tell you that Solway Ally won and didn’t carry a penny of my hard earned cash.

Other races on the day included a competitive 2m4furlong handicap hurdle won by the Irish Raider Ramsden Boy at big odds, a 4 runner staying chase won by the 5/4 favourite Seize and the closing bumper won by the 25/1 Jim Goldie trainer outsider Wyse Hill Teabags. I wisely avoided the handicap hurdle and chase races and took a small interest in a Chris Grant trained newcomer in the bumper who ran a decent race but never looked likely to find me the elusive winner.

Overall I only played in three of the seven races, which was unusual for me but probably the right move in end despite a couple of potential selections going in. I did have a fair sized bet on Knockavilla but again a valuable lesson was learned and I really hope the new discipline I have shown recently separate blog to follow on that) will lead to a profitable time over the next few months.

After the racing it was off out in Ayr for a few drinks and a bit of nightclubbing, although given this is a betting blog I don’t suppose many readers will be too keen to read stories of my near miss in trying to pull a stunning nineteen year old. Back down to Ayr in just over 3 weeks for the Scottish National where I will be hoping for more luck on both the punting front and in bagging myself that nineteen year old. Happy punting.

Cheltenham 2010: Supreme Noves' Hurdle

Well, it’s finally here. At half past one tomorrow, we’ll hear the famous roar of the crowd as the tape is lifted on the first race of the 2010 Cheltenham Festival, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The race is open to novice hurdlers aged four years or older and is run on Cheltenham’s Old Course, over two miles and 110 yards and featuring eight hurdles.

Last year I went with Kempes, who never got near to eventual winner Go Native (right) and I’ll be looking to improve on that. As ever, I’ll be looking for some trends to try and thin the eighteen strong field out a little, in an attempt to find the likely winner.

The strongest trend for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is last time out form, with twelve of the last thirteen winners of the race having won on their previous start.

Another noticeable trend is age, as 30 of the last 35 winners were aged five or six, but I don’t place too much emphasis on that in this race, as the vast majority of participants are aged five and six. Interestingly though, it would rule out hot favourite Dunguib (left), who is seven.

There are other factors that point to a potential upset in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle too, notably that only six favourites have won in the last thirty renewals. Another fairly strong trend is that eight of the last 18 winners had run in no more than two hurdle races, a statistic strengthened by the fact that so few horses with that sort of profile actually take part in the race.

With the winner of the last five renewals returned at odds varying between 6-1 and 40-1, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle really is a race where you can pick almost anything, though it is probably worth noting that only one horse has placed at odds of greater than 50-1 in the last thirteen years. All these factors lead me to believe that the festival hotpot (best price even money, William Hill and Ladbrokes) is worth taking on, even more so when you look at how ropey his jumping was in Leopardstown. Now then, let’s get it beaten.

Flat Out and Blackstairmountain (right) are horses that fit every trend I’ve mentioned so far, but have the added bonus of being trained by Willie Mullins, who is one of just four people still training to have won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle more than once, most recently with Ebaziyan in 2007. Irish trainers generally have a good record in the race and seven of the last nine winners were all Irish trained.

Of the two, you would be tempted to side with Blackstairmountain (best price 12/1, SportingBet) as Ruby Walsh has chosen the five year old bay as his mount, but I have something of a reputation on the blog for picking the wrong one whenever I narrow it down to two, so I guess I’d better go with Flat Out (best price 20/1, Stan James, Victor Chandler and SportingBet) as well!

It’s worth noting tomorrow’s special offer from BetFred. In addition to the usual free £50 bet for signing up, if you back a horse in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and it loses, you’ll be refunded the stake as a free bet (up to a maximum of £100). That offer makes the race even more appealing as if Dunguib does oblige, you’ll get your stake back to bet on something else (like Punjabi, who is going to win the Champion Hurdle at 15:20, as tipped by The Scoop Troop!)

If the exchanges are more your scene, Blackstairmountain is priced at 15.0 (14/1) on Betfair and Flat Out is 26 (25/1) - both prices bigger than anything found with traditional bookmakers. Betfair are also offering a £25 free bet to new accounts.

Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Tuesday 16th March, 13.30

Blackstairmountain 0.5 pts e/w

Flat Out 0.5 pts e/w

Cheltenham 2010: Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The Ladbrokes World Hurdle is run on Cheltenham’s New Course, over a distance of three miles, featuring twelve hurdles. Horses aged four or older can take part and this year’s hot favourite (best price on offer 8/13, from William Hill and SportingBet) is the defending champion, the Paul Nicholls trained Big Buck’s (see right).

There are sixteen hopefuls lined up for this year’s World Hurdle, but that number can be halved if we look at the last time out form of the last ten winners of the race. By last ten winners, I am going back to 1996 – Inglis Drever and Baracouda won the race five years out of the last ten, so I’m just looking at their stats for the first time they won the World Hurdle. But yeah, looking at LTO form for the last ten winners, eight had finished in the first two and four from the last five were LTO winners.

No five year old has won the World Hurdle and only one horse older than nine has achieved the feat. Nine year olds don’t have a great record, with only four winners in the last 35 years and two of those were repeat winners. Eight year olds don’t fare much better, with five winners in thirty years; two of those were repeat winners too. It looks like six and seven year olds are best placed to make a challenge to Big Buck’s then.

Time For Rupert (left) and Karabak are the only two that adhere to the above profile (though Big Buck’s himself also fits the bill).

Of the two, Karabak would tempt me the most, in terms of a potential winner. My pick for last year’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, the bay gelding finished second in that race. Although none of the last ten World Hurdle winners had any winning Cheltenham Festival form (again, not including the repeat winners, who obviously did) six of them had placed at a previous Festival, five of those finishing in second place.

Karabak (left) is yet to score over three miles, unlike Time For Rupert, but half of the last ten winners had also never won over three miles prior to their first World Hurdle win, so I don’t see that as a massive problem. He dug in well and stuck on gamely after messing up the final hurdle in the rescheduled Long Walk, suggesting that he gets the trip and is up for the challenge. In truth, he’s probably still progressing. Whether he can progress enough to beat Big Buck’s, I’m not sure, but at a best price 15/2 (Coral, e/w terms first three, a quarter the odds) it really does look like an each way bet to nothing.

In terms of value, Time For Rupert (right) looks a nice bet too. The best price 20/1 (widely available) looks insulting for a horse than has winning course and distance form, appears to act on all types of ground, is being targeted solely at this race and that ran second in the Cleeve Hurdle, giving the winner 4lbs in the process. This is surely overpriced and Coral’s 14/1 seems a lot nearer the mark.

I have to say, Big Buck’s does look the most likely winner of the race. The World Hurdle has thrown up five repeat winners in the last ten years and this year’s hot favourite has all the form in the book and rightly heads the market. For the casual punter though, 8/13 is no fun, so I’d fancy taking it on with both Time For Rupert and Karabak. As previously mentioned, the latter seems a genuine bet to nothing and the former seems insultingly overpriced.

Hell, why not thrown in a cheeky combination tricast, just for fun?

The World Hurdle sponsors are offering a £25 free bet to all new accounts - why not sign up and take advantage of the offer to back Karabak?

Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Thursday 18th March, 15.20
Karabak 2.5pts e/w

Time For Rupert 0.5 pts e/w

Cheltenham Festival - only four sleeps away!

The countdown to the Cheltenham Festival is well and truly underway and I for one am quite excited. I’m particularly pleased with my selections so far, here’s a quick recap to save you filtering though the recent flurry of blog posts:

Champion Hurdle: Punjabi (16/1 last month, best price 8/1 now, but only with only with Totesport and Sportingbet)

RSA Chase: Citizen Vic (33/1 ten days ago, BP 25/1 now with most firms)
Weird Al (11/1 ten days ago, BP 15/2 with Sportingbet)

Pertemps Final: Dorset Square (20/1 two days ago, as short as 10/1 now but can still get 20/1 from Sportingbet)

Ryanair Chase: Tranquil Sea (9/2 on Monday, BP 4/1 with basically everyone now)
Our Vic (66/1 on Monday, since declared a non-runner)

JCB Triumph Hurdle: Alaivan (9/2 eight days ago, 4/1 now with almost everyone)

Will be looking at the World Hurdle next, to see if I can get Big Buck’s beaten. Hopefully that preview will be up on Saturday. I will also write something for what promises to be an intriguing Cheltenham Gold Cup, though I heartily recommend that everyone enjoys the spectacle without financial investment.

Anyone looking for good free bets for the Cheltenham Festival would do well to check out Bet365, who are offering up to £200 in free bets for new customers, a host of novelty bets and they go Non Runner Money Back on all the big races. On top of that, if you back a winner in any of the televised Channel 4 races, whose price is 4/1 or better, they'll give you a free bet in the next televised C4 race to the same stake!

Pre-Season F.1 Fancies & Bahrain G.P. Tips

A few selections for the outright F.1 2010 Drivers Championship:

Jenson Button is priced as high as 13/1 (Extrabet). Well worth backing e/w. Team mate Lewis Hamilton is available at a best price of 10/3 with Stan James.

If you're looking at backing Ferrari, there is little value chasing Fernando Alonso, with odds as short as 9/4 at many of the high street bookies (Ladbrokes are best price, 11/4). Team mate Felipe Massa is a far more attractive preposition, with a best price of 9/1 with bwin, and is available at more or less all of their rivals priced between 7/1 and 8/1.

I'm definately going with an e/w (top 3 pay) bet on Nico Rosberg, who I feel offers outstanding value - read the previous post for more insight. I'll most definately be taking advantage of the very generous 22/1 with BetFred. Prices are as low as 12/1 elsewhere, so shop about for your best bet locally, if you don't use an online account.

There is little value in the Constructors Championship market outright, the odds are too low and it's too tight to call right now as there are several teams who are very close in terms of ability, with scope for so much change over the course of the season. McLaren are available widely at 2/1 (best price 14/5, SportingBet) with Ferrari even narrower at a widely available 7/4 (best price 2/1, Ladbrokes). Neither represent particularly good value right now, so I'll be avoiding this market right now.

Bahrain G.P.

Fernando Alonso is the bookies favourite, but I won't be plumping for a Ferrari win. Instead, I believe there will be a close scrap between McLaren and Mercedes for the podium placings. Several firms are offering 10/1 on Jenson Button to take the win, though Extrabet go a whopping 12/1 and I think this offers outstanding value - he was dominant here in 2009 in taking his third win of the season. If you'd rather spread the risk by going each way, try Stan James, whose e/w terms are first three, 1/4 the odds. Red Bull's Mark Webber is a best priced 17/1 (SportingBet) and certainly represents a value e/w bet. I will be taking a look at both of these drivers, along with the aforementioned Nico Rosberg, who is priced at 12/1 with Stan James, William Hill, Boylesports and Betfred.

For anyone who fancies a random flutter on something a bit different, there are plenty of "specials" available (William Hill in particular have a host of interesting features in which to put your money on, and enhance your enjoyment of the event). I like the look of the "Safety Car" market, where you can back whether or not it will need to be deployed during the course of the race. I would be inclined to back the appearance of the Safety Car, it is available at a best price of 11/10 with both Bet365 and SkyBet. Although in the years previous, the Safety Car has not always been an integral part of this event, all it will take is a bit of over enthusiasm (perhaps from one of the numerous novices) and the fact that there will now be more vehicles on the track than in recent years, which could well see someone getting intimate with the scenery at some point !

Best of luck to all those having a flutter this weekend.

Thanks for reading,
Mountain Man

Meet The 2010 F1 Teams & Drivers

To follow up yesterday's post which detailed some of the new rules and regulations ahead of the 2010 Formula One season, today I will take a look at the driver and team line ups, and offer my predictions for their success or otherwise in the year ahead.

McLaren-Mercedes

2009 Constructors Championship - 3rd (71 Points)

2010 Prediction - 1st (Best Price to win Constructors Title, 14/5, SportingBet)

1. Jenson Button

British

2009 - Drivers Championship: 1st - 95 Points (Brawn G.P.)

Best Career Result - 1st (7 Wins)

W.C. Points (Career) - 324

Debut - Australia 2000 (Williams)

Button enjoyed his best season to date in 2009 with surprise package Brawn G.P. with a particularly strong start to the season, winning six of the first seven races, although he made heavy work of the latter part of the season, meaning a title he should have secured by the time the European events had past by went all the way to the wire in Brazil. Now into his eleventh season in the top tier, Button is now with his fifth team, and providing McLaren can deliver with a competitive package, his smooth style should see consistent top three finishes, although whether his raw pace is enough to match Hamilton remains to be seen.

2. Lewis Hamilton

British

2009 Drivers Championship - 5th - 49 Points (McLaren)

Best Career Result - 1st (11 Wins)

W.C. Points (Career) - 256

Debut - Australia 2007 (McLaren)

In the worst McLaren in his three year Formula One career, Hamilton struggled in the early part of the season with a torrid car, however his perseverance paid off, with victories at Hungary and Singapore, which saw him lead his team to third in the standings ahead of bitter rivals, Ferrari. Hamilton totally outshone his team mate of the last two years, Heikki Kovalainen. Expect Button to be more of a threat, but if Hamilton can look after his tyres in the races, Hamilton is more likely to prosper in what is set to be an intriguing inter-team battle.

Mercedes G.P. (Formerly Brawn G.P.)

2009 Constructors Championship - 1st (172 Points) - as Brawn G.P.

2010 Prediction - 4th (BP 11/2, ToteSport)

3. Michael Schumacher

Germany

2009 Drivers Championship - N/A (Did Not Compete)

Best Career Result - 1st (91 Wins)

W.C. Points (Career) - 1291 (Excl. 1997 Disqualification)

Debut - Belgium 1991 (Jordan)

So, a legend, at the ripe old age of 41 returns to try to lead the team which nurtured his career through the junior formulae to victory. Schumacher hit the headlines last year, when it was rumoured he was to return for Ferrari to take the place of the injured Felipe Massa, but perhaps he realised that the car was a dog ! Schumacher won't be here to make up the numbers, and alongside his old friend Ross Brawn and with Mercedes power, this car will be amongst the front runners. I'm sure there will be lots of people expecting too much of "Schumi", not least his fans. I wouldn't back him for the championship, although I'd be delighted if he could do it. I expect the odd podium, if the car works a win isn't beyond him. Consistent points should see him take up residence somewhere between fifth and eighth in the Drivers Championship come the seasons end.

4. Nico Rosberg

Germany

2009 Drivers Championship - 7th - 34.5 Points (Williams)

Best Career Result - 2nd (Singapore 2008)

W.C. Points (Career) - 75.5

Debut - Bahrain 2006 (Williams)

Rosberg has shown signs of great potential in his drives in an uncompetitive Williams over the last few seasons - indeed in his first ever race, at Bahrain in 2006 he was the youngest driver ever to set the fastest lap in a Grand Prix. In a consistent season in 2009, he only failed to finish once, and was in the points regularly, fulfilling and exceeding the potential of the Williams. I believe, that this season he will be working closely with Schumacher and the team, as clearly, if he can continue his development, Rosberg is a champion in the making. A definate dark horse for the podium anywhere he races, should the Mercedes be a competitive package, keep an eye on his prices with the bookies - an underrated driver who I believe will fluourish under the stewardship of Ross Brawn.

Red Bull - Renault

2009 Constructors Championship - 2nd (153.5 Points)

2010 Prediction - 3rd (BP 7/2, Bwin)

5. Sebastian Vettel

Germany

2009 Drivers Championship - 2nd - 84 Points (Red Bull)

Best Career Result - 1st (5 Wins)

W.C. Points (Career) - 125

Debut - Hungary 2007

Sebastian Vettel, a product of Red Bull's feeder outfit Toro Rosso was very much a revelation of the 2009 season, in an indecently quick car designed by former Williams guru Adrian Newey. Had the team been on the pace in the early rounds, then Vettel could quite easily have been World Champion. Handles pressure well, and clearly a precocious talent, if Red Bull can consolidate their performance of last year, then they could quite well go one better. However, I put them on a par with the likes of Mercedes, but ahead of the likes of Renault and Williams. I believe Vettel will take on the role of team leader, but do not see him finishing top three in the title come the seasons end. May well be worth a punt on a "best of the rest" coupon, which takes into account the title "winners" minus the drivers of Ferrari and McLaren.

6. Mark Webber

Australia

2009 Drivers Championship - 4th - 69.5 Points (Red Bull)

Best Career Result - 1st (Germany 2009 & Brazil 2009)

W.C. Points (Career) - 169.5

Debut - Australia 2002 (Minardi)

It's perhaps a shame, but I think Webber missed the boat in Formula One. He has been about now for the best part of a decade, and shown lots of promise but has never had a big break with one of the powerhouses of the sport, in particular, I remember watching him score points in his debut in 2002 for Minardi and believing he would be World Champion in the not too distant future; unfortunately it never came, and now it's surely too late. With Red Bull, he clearly has the equipment, but rarely the luck, and last season was overshadowed by his young team mate, Vettel. I can only see this continuing this season, Webber is a match for anyone on his day, but now time is starting to count against him. If Webber can qualify strongly then he can challenge for podiums, but I believe a challenge for the title is beyond him. Sixth at best in the drivers title. What will count in his favour however, is stability, as he is competing with the same team, designer and team mate, and this could well see him and the team impress in the early part of the season whilst others are still finding their feet.

Ferrari

2009 Constructors Championship - 4th (70 Points)

2010 Prediction - 2nd (BP 2/1, Ladbrokes)

7. Felipe Massa

Brazil

2009 Drivers Championship - 11th - 22 Points (Ferrari) *Missed 8 Rounds Due To Injury

Best Career Result - 1st (10 Wins)

W.C. Points (Career) - 320

Debut - Australia 2002 (Sauber)

Massa makes a return to the sport following the horrific incident which occurred during the qualifying session for the Hungarian Grand Prix in 2009 where he was hit on the head at over 160mph by a spring which had become detached from one of Rubens Barrichello's damping units. He has undergone intensive therapy, and is reportedly raring to go and has impressed in testing, and also in a number of competitive motor sport events in his native Brazil over the close season. His relationship with Alonso will be under constant scrutiny, following one or two disagreements in the past, along with recent condemnation of the alleged "race fixing" tactics of Singapore 2008 which involved Alonso whilst competing for Renault. I see no reason why Massa cannot challenge for regular race wins this year, and he is sure to be in the hunt should his health remain good, and the car be reliable.

8. Fernando Alonso

Spain

2009 Drivers Championship - 9th - 26 Points (Renault)

Best Career Result - 1st (21 Wins)

W.C. Points (Career) - 577

Debut - Australia 2001 (Minardi)

2005 and 2006 Champion Alonso joins Ferrari to take the seat vacated by Kimi Raikkonen, who is now competing in the World Rally Championship. He is widely tipped as being the favourite for the drivers crown this season, although it has been rare for a Ferrari driver to win the title in their first season for the team in recent years. If he can strike up an amiable working partnership with Massa, and the Ferrari is drivable this year (it was by all accounts a dog last term) then he has to be regarded as a serious contender. I still feel they could wind up as second best to McLaren, however.

Williams - Cosworth

2009 Constructors Championship - 7th (34.5 Points)

2010 Prediction - 5th (BP 50/1, Bet365)

9. Rubens Barrichello

Brazil

2009 Drivers Championship - 3rd - 77 Points (Brawn G.P.)

Best Career Result - 1st (11 Wins)

W.C. Points (Career) - 607

Debut - South Africa 1993 (Jordan)

The driver on the grid with the most starts, Barrichello showed in 2009 with Brawn, that he still had the determination and grit to run up front, and was still in the hunt for the title at the close of the season, despite his protestations at having to play second fiddle to Jenson Button for much of the year. A new team, along with a rookie team mate could well hamper Barrichello's chances of regular top points finishes this season, and I fear a year of mid table mediocrity could well be on the cards for the ever popular Brazilian, who by now has to be regarded as being in the twilight of his career.

10. Nico Hulkenberg

Germany

2009 Drivers Championship - N/A

Best Career Result - N/A

W.C. Points (Career) - N/A

Debut - Bahrain 2010 (Williams)

Hulkenberg joins Williams in his first season in Formula One following a successful few seasons in open wheeled racing. He is only the second driver (Lewis Hamilton being the first) to join F.1 as a G.P.2 Champion, having won the series in 2009. Past honours include winning the A1 GP series for Germany in 2006/07 and winning the Formula 3 Euroseries in 2008. Clearly a driver of talent and raw speed, the ultimate test comes in Formula One, where he has impressed as a test driver for Williams. Coming from the same managing company as Michael Schumacher, headed by Willi Weber, Hulkenberg is already rumoured to be in the running for a Ferrari seat as a long term replacement for Felipe Massa within the next three years. Hulkenberg will, no doubt, be fast; but will he exercise enough caution to avoid visiting the scenery more often than not ? With veteran stablemate Barrichello alongside him, he has a natural mentor and is certainly one for the future. Expect the honour of best rookie to be between him, Lucas di Grassi of Virgin and Sauber's Kamui Kobayashi.

Renault

2009 Constructors Championship - 8th (26 Points)

2010 Prediction - 6th (BP 150/1, Bwin)

11. Robert Kubica

Poland

2009 Drivers Championship - 14th - 17 Points (BMW)

Best Career Result - 1st (Canada 2008)

W.C. Points (Career) - 137

Debut - Hungary 2006 (BMW Sauber)

Renault look shaky - they have an all new driver line up, and come off the back of a tempestuous season, following the shocking revelations of the race fixing incident in Singapore 2008, which culminated in the expulsion of former principal, Flavio Briatore. In Kubica, they have a talented driver, who shows displays of brilliance in terms of his racecraft, but at times appears lazy; particularly in qualifying which can hamper his race weekends. He is capable of scoring solid points, and consistency will be the key. Even so, I see him being in the lower reaches of the top ten, and this season could be an uphill struggle for the likable Pole.

12. Vitaly Petrov

Russia

2009 Drivers Championship - N/A

Best Career Result - N/A

W.C. Points (Career) - N/A

Debut - Bahrain 2010 (Renault)

Petrov becomes Russia's first Formula One driver, and he joins a Renault team living off past glories. Renault tend to struggle to develop out and out novices to the sport (look at the troubled Nelson Piquet Jr, who had the backing of a successful father and still failed). His signing could well be due to being reasonably priced in the drivers market, despite similar interest from Sauber. He does have some racing pedigree to his credit however, being runner up in the 2009 GP2 series, as well as a string of victories in the "Lada Cup, Russia" (I kid you not !!) His goals are to score points "mid season onwards". Perhaps one to avoid in the betting markets.

Force India - Mercedes

2009 Constructors Championship - 9th (13 Points)

2010 Prediction - 8th (BP 80/1, ExtraBet, ToteSport)

14. Adrian Sutil
Germany
2009 Drivers Championship - 17th - 5 Points (Force India)
Best Career Result - 4th (Italy 2009)
W.C. Points (Career) - 6
Debut - Australia 2007 (Spyker)

Sutil's stats belie his capabilities as a driver. He has had some rotten luck (remember Monaco 2008 when Raikkonen's Ferrari shovelled him off the track whilst running fourth ?) in some inferior machinery. Force India showed signs of massive strides forward in 2009 (Giancarlo Fisichella chased Raikkonen home for a fine second place in Belgium). Over the last couple of years, Sutil has matured as a driver and last year had a very good finishing record. Although I do not believe they will be regular podium visitors, I do think Sutil can lead his team to plenty of lower points finishes. Mid table, but solid and consistent - and I think Sutil could well come into his own in a wet race scenario. His one downfall maybe that the pressure of being number one driver could see him return to the days of his silly - but costly mistakes.

15. Vitantonio Liuzzi
Italy
2009 Drivers Championship - 22nd - 0 Points (Force India)
Best Career Result - 6th (China 2007)
W.C. Points (Career) - 5
Debut - San Marino 2007 (Red Bull)

Liuzzi has had something of a stop-start Formula One career, and despite being around the paddock since 2005, he only has two full seasons under his belt, having been something of a "supersub". Last year, he was promoted as Force India's test driver to second driver, following the departure of Fisichella who took over Massa's Ferrari drive following the Brazilian's accident. Liuzzi is unspectacular in all he does, and is likely to plod round staying out of trouble, and quite likely pick up a few points here and there. Stability will be the key in the Force India camp, and with him and Sutil picking up where they left off last year will possibly see them start the season more strongly than they finish it. I wouldn't risk any money whatsoever on Liuzzi - I think it will take a huge slice of luck for him to even smell the steps of the podium, let alone walk up them.

Toro Rosso

2009 Constructors Championship - 10th (8 Points)

2010 Prediction - 10th (BP 250/1, BoyleSports)

16. Sebastian Buemi
Switzerland
2009 Drivers Championship - 16th - 6 Points (Toro Rosso)
Best Career Result - 7th (Australia 2009 & Brazil 2009)
W.C. Points (Career) - 6 Points
Debut - Australia 2009 (Toro Rosso)

Buemi comes into his second season of Formula One with the same team, and will be looking to build upon a solid, if unspectacular debut. In a sporadic year for the team (which started and finished the season strongly, with a mid season dip in form), Buemi made few mistakes, but was dogged with reliability issues. If Buemi qualifies well, then he tends to race well, but struggles in traffic and rarely makes headway. Bear this in mind if you fancy backing him at any point this year. Again, I see this team being in the midfield abyss, maybe slightly off the pace of the likes of Williams, Renault and Force India, and could well be embroiled in situations with the newcomer teams.

17. Jaime Alguersuari
Spain
2009 Drivers Championship - 24th - 0 Points (Toro Rosso)
Best Career Result - 14th (Brazil 2009)
W.C. Points (Career) - 0
Debut - Hungary 2009

Alguersuari was hastily brought into the Toro Rosso line up in time for the Hungarian G.P. of 2009 following the dismissal of the disappointing Sebastian Bourdais. He is the youngest driver in F.1 history, therefore he is still very much on a steep learning curb, and thus expectations for the 2010 season are less than high. Out of eight starts, he only nursed the car to the finish three times. Certainly not one to back, unless you fancy a small tickler in the "first to be replaced" market, although he is likely (in my opinion) to be given at least half a season to settle and prove himself.

Lotus

2009 Constructors Championship - N/A (New Team)

2010 Prediction - 7th (BP 250/1, Bet365, SportingBet, Ladbrokes)

18. Jarno Trulli
Italy
2009 Drivers Championship - 8th - 32.5 Points (Toyota)
Best Career Result - 1st (Canada 2005)
W.C. Points (Career) - 246.5
Debut - Australia 1997 (Minardi)

Trulli, very much a "journeyman" of the Formula One scene brings his vast array of experience to a familiar name, but an all new team in the form of Lotus, who bear little resemblance to the former World beaters, now under the ownership of a Malaysian corporation. Along with Kovalainen, they form an unusually strong line up for a fledgling team, showing the rest of the paddock they mean business. Lotus look set to certainly be top dog, certainly in terms of the newcomers, and if they find some reliability and consistency, a few points is not beyond them. Trulli is renowned for his qualifying supremacy and blistering speed over a single lap, and if he can qualify the car in the top half of the grid, then Lotus could quite easily spring the odd surprise.

19. Heikki Kovalainen
Finland
2009 Drivers Championship - 12th - 22 Points (McLaren)
Best Career Result - 1st (Hungary 2008)
W.C. Points (Career) - 110
Debut - Australia 2007 (Renault)

Perennial underachiever Kovalainen has certainly had some fantastic chances with top teams Renault and McLaren during his time in Formula One, and has often disappointed and played second fiddle to stronger team mates. Having said that, he has driven alongside two World Champions (Alonso and Hamilton) and should bring some useful information to the team. He needs to impress this year, otherwise I can see him making an exit to Indy Car or Touring Cars at the close of the season. Despite this, I still foresee him failing to match Trulli on raw pace, and it could well be a challenging year racing for a team who will be lacking the big money resources he is clearly used to.

H.R.T. (Hispania Racing Team)

2009 Constructors Championship - N/A (New Team)

2010 Prediction - 12th (BP 500/1, widely available)

20. Karun Chandhok
India
2009 Drivers Championship - N/A
Best Career Result - N/A
W.C. Points (Career) - N/A
Debut - Bahrain 2010 (H.R.T.)

Chandhok was a late announcement in the line up for H.R.T. (who had previously registered as Campos) and has briefly been considered for a drive in F.1 in the past with Force India. I have little doubt that Chandhok will be something of a mobile chicane this year, having a less than glowing C.V. in feeder series, and will be something of a tail end charlie in terms of qualifying and racing. If he scrapes any points, I feel it will be due to luck and others failing to finish. Last season, he finished a disappointing 18th in the GP2 series, which begs the question why he has landed an F.1 drive.

21. Bruno Senna
Brazil
2009 Drivers Championship - N/A
Best Career Result - N/A
W.C. Points (Career) - N/A
Debut - Bahrain 2010 (H.R.T.)

Being the nephew of arguably the greatest Formula One driver of all times surely must be a heavy burden on young shoulders, and it will be interesting to see how young Senna copes with the limelight which is sure to surround him in his rookie season. A driver who has repeatedly been linked with drives in the past, it is perhaps something of a surprise he hasn't landed a more lucrative drive (even if only for the marketing opportunities he brings along). Senna has a far more distinguished racing career behind him than his team mate, the highlight being the runner up in the GP2 series of 2008. For this reason, he is sure to be the dominant force at H.R.T.; but even so, the lack of experience is bound to show, and once again I'd be surprised if the points haul (if any) is only in single figures come the season's end.

US F.1

Although the US F.1 team were granted an entry for the 2010 season, sadly they will not be making it to the grid this year, citing financial problems. They are still confident that they will be able to defer entry and race in 2011. Thus, there will now be only 12 teams competing this season.

Virgin (Formerly Manor F1)

2009 Constructors Championship - N/A (New Team)

2010 Prediction - 11th (BP 300/1 SkyBet, Bwin)

24. Timo Glock
Germany
2009 Drivers Championship - 10th - 24 Points (Toyota)
Best Career Result - 2nd (Hungary 2008 & Singapore 2009)
W.C. Points (Career) - 51
Debut - Canada 2004 (Jordan)

Despite making his debut in 2004, Glock enters only his third full season of F.1, following two reasonable seasons at Toyota. He takes on the role of first driver at Virgin Racing, where the expectations on his shoulders, in particular, will be high. Glock will be keen to impress, having missed the last three races of 2009 following injuries sustained in qualifying in a horrific incident at the Japanese Grand Prix. Although Virgin were major sponsors of last years double title winning outfit, Brawn, do not expect them to repeat the feat with their own car. I expect them to contend with the likes of Lotus and Toro Rosso, but cannot see them having the strength to be regular points scorers. The onus will be on Glock to lead, and with a weaker team mate than Trulli has at Lotus, I cannot even back Virgin to even be the best newcomers to the series.

25. Lucas di Grassi
Brazil
2009 Drivers Championship - N/A
Best Career Result - N/A
W.C. Points (Career) - N/A
Debut - Bahrain 2010 (Virgin)

Newcomer, di Grassi knows his team mate Glock well - he finished second to him in the 2007 GP2 series. In 2008 and 2009, he has finished runner up in the GP2 series, and now his consistency has paid off and won him a Formula One drive. Although I expect him to perhaps be over-enthusiastic at times, there is every chance di Grassi could prove to be a revelation, and could well be ranked as the best newcomer this year. He also has some F.1 experience, having been test driver for Renault in the past. On out and out speed, he tested a Honda at Catalunya, and was 0.2 seconds a lap off the pace of Bruno Senna in the same car, but I feel as an overall package, di Grassi will have the measure of his countryman in the H.R.T. this season, particularly with the advantage of having an experienced team mate alongside him.

Sauber - BMW (Formerly BMW)

2009 Constructors Championship - 6th (36 Points) - As BMW

2010 Prediciton - 9th (BP 40/1 BoyleSports, SportingBet, ExtraBet)

26. Pedro de la Rosa
Spain
2009 Drivers Championship - N/A
Best Career Result -2nd (Hungary 2006)
W.C. Points (Career) - 29
Debut - Australia 1999 (Arrows)

39 year old de la Rosa last competed in Formula One competitively in 2006 for McLaren, since then he has been amongst their ranks as test driver. A hasty signing for the now re-badged Sauber team, following the withdrawal of factory support from BMW. Under the stewardship of Peter Sauber, the team has potential, but after so many years away from the competitive side of racing, I fully expect de la Rosa to lack edge and bite (akin to the efforts of Luca Badoer at Ferrari in 2009 who found himself in a similar situation). I wouldn't fancy de la Rosa to make much of an impact, and he could quite well find himself seeking alternative employment at the season's end, if not before.

27. Kamui Kobayashi
Japan
2009 Drivers Championship -
Best Career Result -
W.C. Points (Career) -
Debut - Brazil 2009 (Toyota)

Kobayashi made an instant impact when called up to the ranks of Toyota for the last two races of 2009 following Timo Glock's accident in Japan. He came under criticism for his swash-buckling style in Brazil where he was wheel to wheel with many seasoned pro's, and put some sweet maneouvres on a number of veterans of the sport. His raw pace and natural talent is evident, I believe he will be the most successful Japanese top tier driver to date. However, I also feel he is likely to be in the "win it or bin it" camp and may have a few big "offs" this year. If he can conserve his tyres, he is bound to get the best out of his machinery. I fully expect him to outscore his team mate at least 2:1 come the end of the year.

So, apologies for the length of this post. As you can tell from my predictions, I have made it clear which teams I feel will be the ones at the sharp end of the grid, and those to forget.

To tie all this together, tomorrow I will be posting my tips for this weekends Bahrain G.P.; and also my top selections for the Drivers and Constructors titles.

Thanks for reading,
Mountain Man

Cheltenham 2010: Pertemps Final

I’ve only got one day off over Cheltenham and it’s the Thursday. I will be getting up early, getting my ridiculously unkempt hair tidied up before trotting off to the shop for a Racing Post and a few cans. I shall then proceed to enjoy the day’s racing on the box, before heading out for more food and drink as it’s my old lady’s birthday. Should be fun times.

With my televisual entertainment in mind, any more races I look at in depth between now and the commencement of the Cheltenham Festival will be from Thursday’s card. Let’s get stuck into the day’s second race, the Pertemps Final. Last year's winner, Kayf Aramis, is in the picture in the corner.

The race is a handicap, open to horses aged five or older and run over a distance of three miles. Horses have to qualify for the race through a series of heats over the course of the National Hunt season and this can allow trainers to sneak well handicapped horses in.

Knowing this, it seems worth focusing on horses at the lower end of the weights. Horses rated 119 to 132 have won five of the last seven Pertemps Final renewals. In fact, this bracket has the best all round record in recent renewals too - over the last decade, six winners and eighteen placed horses fell into that group, with four winners and twelve places coming from the much wider 133 to 160 band. This means that I'll be excluding the 9/2 favourite Alfie Sherrin and the gambled on Ainama (left).

A revealing statistic relating to the Pertemps Final (thanks to At The Races for this) is that just 19% of runners in the race, stretching back to 1995, were last time out winners, but despite that, horses that tasted victory in their last race have won 64% of Pertemps Finals over the same time period. Considering that fact, I’ll be discarding anything without a 1 at the end of the form.

Proven stamina is important in the Pertemps Final – of the last ten winners, seven had winning form at the distance and of the three that didn’t, two had come second at the 3m and the other hand never attempted it before, but had winning form at 2m 6f.

Horses aged between six and nine have won all ten of the last ten renewals, with 33 out of 40 placed horses coming from the same age bracket.

With all of the above information in mind, my Pertemps Final shortlist can be cut from 85 runners to just four: Cross Kennon, Ringaroses, Quentin Collonges & Dorset Square.

Of the four, I’d have to side with Dorset Square.

Despite Jonjo O’Neill’s good record in the race, I don’t see Ringaroses (best price 25/1, widely available) as a Pertemps Final winner. In six attempts at distances of further than 2m 5f, the horse only has one victory, in a weak looking novices’ handicap last time out. In last year’s renewal, the horse was a well beaten eleventh off a mark of 131; this year he goes off 130. Line through this one.

I have a big question mark over Cross Kennon (best price 20/1, widely available) in that it hasn’t yet been seen on a course in 2010 and has only run twice this season. As I can’t find any information about it, I don’t know how fit it is. In any case, nine of the last ten winners had their last run in February, suggesting that a fit, but still relatively fresh horse is required – that’s enough for me to rule this one out.

Quentin Collonges (best price 25/1, Victor Chandler) ran just this weekend at Doncaster which doesn’t seem ideal and on his two previous trips to Cheltenham, he’s disappointed. He also lacks experience in the bigger fields, something that will definitely be a feature of the Pertemps Final, having only ever run in three races with more than eleven rivals, winning none of them.

So that leaves me with Dorset Square (right) though I can’t say I’m overly keen. With three wins from twenty starts over hurdles, he doesn’t do a lot of winning, but his official rating has slowly crept up over the last four races, suggesting a horse on the up and he will carry a featherweight 9 st 3 oz. Willie Mullins is yet to train the winner of the Pertemps Final, but no trainer has a particularly outstanding record in the race and Irish trainers do okay, with five of the last seventeen winners.

In short then, I’m not overly confident about this one. With Dorset Square holding entries in three different races at this year’s Cheltenham Festival, I would only use a bookmaker that’s offering No Runner Money Back and even then, it’d not be for large stakes. ToteSport is probably your best bet – they are a best price 20/1 about the horse and they also go NRMB. You can get £60 worth of free bets with them too, if you back before the start of the Festival.

Should the selection not run, I’d side with Quentin Collonges.

Pertemps Final
Thursday 18th March, 14.05
Dorset Square – 0.5 pts e/w

17th March update: Dorset Square doesn't go. In fact, only one of the four I whittled it down to does, so it looks like I'll have to invest a small amount in Cross Kennon!

F1 2010 Is Go !

Once again, as the nights get longer, and the temperature rises, up and down the country; enthusiasts, fans and those who have simply eaten too much roast beef and Yorkshire Pudding will be spending every second Sunday for the next eight months in front of the television, watching the twists, turns and tribunals of a new Formula One season unfold. As always, the series will no doubt, fail to live up to the pre-season hype, but surely, this year, there is more reason than ever to anticipate it with a little more excitement than one would normally reserve for such an occasion. For one, McLaren has two British World Champions spear-heading their campaign; with reigning drivers champion Jenson Button joining 2008 victor Lewis Hamilton. There are several new teams - more cars on the grid surely equals a little more excitement, if not incidents ! And of course, love him or loathe him, the undoubted king of Formula One in modern times, with a record seven drivers titles to his name, and after a three year "retirement" Michael Schumacher drives for "Mercedes G.P." (formerly known as "Brawn G.P."; who are the reigning Constructors Champions).

As with last seasons preview, I will be writing this item in two distinct parts. The first (which you are reading now) will deal with the technical changes and new rulings which have been implemented in time for the forthcoming season. Part two will deal with the team and driver line ups and my predictions for the year ahead, which should be online here tomorrow (Thursday). Watch out prior to Grand Prix weekends, where I will endeavour to share my tips for the top (of the podium !).

As ever, there are a plethora of new rules and regulations in place in the hope of glossing over "grey areas" in the rulebook, which were exposed numerous times last season, and also being implemented, as ever, in the hope that they will make the racing closer and more entertaining. The most obvious change to the casual observer will be that there will no longer be refuelling stops now (which were reintroduced at the beginning of the 1994 season), so there will be less of an emphasis on pit stop strategy, with drivers merely using the pit lane on race day to change tyres and repair minor damage such as broken wings. Expect to see the lightning-fast pitstops akin to those of the late 1980's - the heyday of F.1 in my opinion. The onus this year, as a result, will be for drivers to conserve their tyres rather than abuse them, as there will be far fewer opportunities to change them; this is bound to be a big deciding factor in many races where tyre wear is heavy. Clearly, this will favour sympathetic drivers with experience, rather than the devil may care, hell for leather attitude of the over-enthusiastic rookie. The "out-laps" (first lap on circuit following a pitstop) will also prove interesting, as restrictions over the use and design of tyre warmers come into play, meaning the overall outside area of the tyres will not be up to temperature (particularly the walls), in theory this should lead to some enthusiastic overtaking manouevres should two cars be in close proximity on track during the pitstop windows.

Testing, both in-season and in the winter pre-season, has been cut back even further this year, following huge restrictions which were imposed last year. Teams are now only allowed six days of aerodynamic testing (reduced from eight days in 2009) - and in turn, one day of testing may be substituted for a 24 hour slot in a wind tunnel. This marks a vast downturn of time alloted for wind tunnel and circuit testing in previous campaigns - a move made in an attempt to close the gap between teams at either end of the spectrum in terms of ability, potential and above all - finance. However, as was seen last year, particularly with Toro Rosso and Renault, in the interests of driver safety, should a substitute driver be required mid season, with no prior F.1 experience; they will be permitted to have one day of testing at a "non-calendar" circuit in order to familiarise themselves with the car. This is a sensible move, which can only prove to be beneficial to everyone involved in the sport.

There are also several other regulation changes, which the more involved fans will be more interested in (and no doubt can be enjoyed elsewhere in more detail), but to touch on these, they include: cars getting away slowly on the formation (parade) lap having to start from the pit lane rather than their designated grid slot; laps run behind the safety car having to be slower than a designated "base time"; further and harsher grid penalties for drivers who use more than their allocation of engines (two) in a race weekend; and equal allocation of pit and paddock space for ALL teams, rather than showing bias towards the more prestigious marques, which has been encountered in previous years. There is also set to be more consistency and fairness in how time penalties will be awarded and implemented during and after races, should they be required.

Both for the casual observer, and for those who like to put a few quid on the outcome of the championships, it is worth noting that there will be a new points structure in place for the forthcoming season. A statement in Winter 2009 from the FIA read:

"Due to the expanded grid of 13 teams, and further to the recommendation of the F.1 Commission, a new points system will be in place for the 2010 season."

Points will now be paid out down to tenth place in the following denominations:

25 - 18 - 15 - 12 - 10 - 8 - 6 -4 - 2 - 1

F.1 bosses believe that with such a sizable gap between first and second (in 2009, first place was awarded ten points and second gained 8), there will be more of a "race to win" incentive. It is my opinion, that should we have a dominant team in the early part of the season (in a similar mould to Brawn G.P. in 2009), then a succession of one-two finishes for their cars could see them extremely difficult, verging on impossible, to catch in the latter part of the year.

By no means is this an exhaustive feature - in a sport of constant evolution and ever changing innovation, I have barely scratched the surface in terms of technical changes. What I have (hopefully) covered here is the most important elements for the casual observer of F.1, and if this proves useful to anyone thinking of jumping in and having a punt on the championship, or indeed the opening race on Sunday 14th March in Bahrain, then I wish you good luck. The next installment, coming tomorrow, will detail how the teams line up, and my thoughts of what is to be a long (and with a stroke of luck) enjoyable rather than arduous, season.

Thanks for reading,

Mountain Man

Harry Potter and the Attack of the Ned

First of all, sorry for the abundance of horrible selections this weekend. Really terrible.

At the request of Dom I'll post up the picture of what my head looks like currently. On Saturday I was caught in the middle of a scuffle in a notorious Dundee club and some ned ended up giving me a running bulldog into the corner of a wall. A tad unfortunate perhaps.

Kind of knew it was fairly bad when bouncers from the club were looking at the cut and having to turn away and look like they were about to be sick. At the hospital a student doctor and nurse were in on the stitching job and I overheard the proper doctor pointing out my skull and nerves. It was super deep, it's 7cm long and was an inch or so wide.

Bizarrely this wouldn't have even happened had I not suffered a bad beat at the final table of the 20f at the Gala. I crushed my opening table (as per) and got up to 50k at the break from 12k. After the break I lost a fairly big pot that set me back when my QQ was no good versus KJ and AT aipf. However played well to get to the final in ok-ish shape. Second hand my KK was no match for TT aipf against some smelly woman meaning me and Chico headed to mine for some Pro Evo and drinks before going out. Major sigh. Anyway the photo......

Cheltenham 2010: Ryanair Chase

With Cheltenham fast approaching and the excitement building, I couldn’t resist getting stuck into another Festival preview on my day off. So far I’ve only had chance to look at three races, all on different days, so I’d better pick one from the Thursday – let’s have a look at the Ryanair Chase.

Correctly titled “The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase”, the Ryanair Chase is open to horses aged five or older and is contested over two miles and five furlongs, with seventeen fences in total. Last year's winners was Imperial Commander (right). As the race is relatively new to the Cheltenham Festival, my usual trends based approach will be somewhat stretched. Let’s see how we get on.

As Prestbury Park, famous for its testing undulations, finds a lot of horses out, it seems common sense to start the search for a winner by removing those with no Cheltenham winning form. All five previous winners of this race had won at Cheltenham prior to their Festival Trophy victories, four of which had won over the same distance. Focussing on horses that have already won at Cheltenham leaves us with ten of the 33 to concentrate on.

A race to look at for potential pointers is the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Of the five Ryanair Chase winners, Thisthatandtother and Imperial Commander both won the race en route to Cheltenham and Fondmort and Our Vic were both past winners of the race, albeit not in the same season. Taranis didn’t win the Paddy Power, but did run a big race, leading for a time and he wasn’t that far off in second place, when falling two from home. With this in mind, I can focus on just Tranquil Sea, Poquelin and Our Vic.

This is presumably the same line of thought followed by the odds compilers, as Tranquil Sea (below) and Poquelin, first and second in the Paddy Power back in November, both head the Ryanair Chase market at a best priced 9/2 (Coral).

Of the pair I’d have to side with Tranquil Sea, not just because he beat Poquelin in the Paddy Power with something in hand, form which was franked as Poquelin won the Boylesports Gold Cup from eventual Racing Post Chase winner Razor Royale, but his jumping is flawless and he goes on any ground.

That said, I wouldn’t totally discount Our Vic (right). At twelve years old, he’s no spring chicken, but the best price 66/1 (William Hill and Ladbrokes) is quite insulting for a hardened campaigner who won this race two years ago and was second the year before. By contrast, Victor Chandler and ToteSport are a more respectable 25/1, which is probably more like it. For value reasons, I’ll be nibbling at Our Vic each way.

Ryanair Chase
Thursday 18th March, 14.40
Tranquil Sea 3 pts win
Our Vic 0.25 pts e/w

Dilemma

I write this as the scores are flowing through and I could do with Plymouth grabbing an equaliser soon to fill my pockets. Barnsley were doing well first half until a dubious sending off of their keeper and now they are getting whalloped. Sigh. Anyway, I mentioned Shaw's Dilemma at the end of the last post and he runs tonight at Wimbledon over 460m as he continues his Derby preparation. However, it's stupidly short at 1/3 so we'll leave that alone.

I think I'm hitting up the Dundee Gala £20f tonight so may as well have a few bets on the dogs to keep track of whilst I'm there. Shameless brag, chopped it last time.

7:45 - T6 Harry's Mentor (Predicted price: 5/1)
Isn't slow to the first corner and in a poor race has some decent recent times to claim this A7.

8:00 - T3 Small Crane (2/1) NAP
Reading the form here I thought Crane would be odds on so to see it as 2/1 makes it a near max bet for me.

EDIT: Full-time in the football and a late winner from Motherwell robbed me of £400, bastards.

Ful Yer Boots

It's been a while since I've blogged but I thought best I pop something up since we've slimmed our membership down to 4. Since I last posted I've been on a free trip to Vegas for 8 days at the start of February which was simply incredible and deserves a post of its own so will look to do that maybe over the weekend.

Anyway, my main bet for this weekend looks to be on Fulham in the live evening FA Cup game against Spurs. According to my Dundee Evening Telegraph they are best price 2/1 with bet365. Their solid home form coupled with the fact Spurs are missing a load of players (including their key man Aaron Lennon) makes them the bet of the day for me.

I may double them with West Ham to beat Bolton at Upton Park if I can squeak evens out somewhere. Elsewhere Barnsley are an insulting 7/1 away at Newcastle and I feel obliged to back Barnsley at that price, that's with Laddies.

There was some excellent greyhounds on Sky this Tuesday past and I got matched at 42 on a early paced hound that I thought might hold. It got caught on the line to leave me devastated but I managed to break even on the night with a couple of winners. I had an early nibble for the Greyhound Derby on Shaw's Dilemma at 80/1 and told Dom to get involved too - it has since been cut to 50s after a strong late rally on Tuesday over 460m (Derby over 480m). I like this dog alot and struggle to think of a race where it'll not finish top 3.

Anyway, good luck for this weekend whatever you're doing and please comment if you have any views on my bets or simply leave bets of your own in there.

Cheltenham 2010: JCB Triumph Hurdle

The JCB Triumph Hurdle is the opening race on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival and is run over two miles and a furlong. It is exclusively for four year old novices and there are eight hurdles to be negotiated. Last year’s winner was Zaynar, under Barry Geraghty (right).

The first trend of note is last time out form. Of the last sixteen Triumph Hurdle winners, fourteen had won their previous start and the two that failed, Celestial Halo and Paddy’s Return, both finished second. Eliminating those whose last time out result is worse than second place allows us to significantly reduce the field.

Next comes experience. Of the last twenty Triumph Hurdle winners, just three had run fewer than three times over hurdles and 15 of the last 16 had won at least two races.

One of the leading fancies for the race, Mille Chief (pictured left), will not take his chance. Trainer Alan King ruled out Cheltenham after revealing a training setback, stating that “90% [fit] is not good enough”. This leaves me with thirteen to pick from.

These days it’s very difficult to win the Triumph Hurdle without a decent recruit from the flat or a French bred horse, which tend to be schooled in jumping much earlier. Just one of the last twelve winners had a flat rating of lower than 80 (Spectroscope, whose OR was 73) and nine of the last ten winners were by a Group 1 winning flat sire. We can use all of this information to thin the field to just six: Alaivan, Anak, Barizan, Bothy, Notus de la Tour and Son Amix.

It is worth nothing that all of the last ten Triumph winners had been off the track no longer than 45 days, by the time the race came around. Going with that, we can further eliminate Barizan (not seen since November) and Notus de la Tour (last seen at Plumpton in January).

All of the last ten winners had won at Class 3 or better, a feat yet to be achieved by Son Amix or Barizan, leaving me with just Bothy and the market leader, Alaivan. It seems likely that Bothy will be running in the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle instead, which probably explains the 50/1 best price for the Triumph Hurdle, but I’ll be keeping an eye out for any news with regard to this. In the meantime, it looks like I’ll be backing Alaivan (right).

I’m not really a big fan of supporting favourites at Cheltenham, but eleven of the last sixteen Triumph Hurdle winners were in the front four in the market, which is a boost. Due to the big fields that are so common with the Triumph, it’s not really worth lumping on. The minimum bet at a best price of 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfred) seems about right.

JCB Triumph Hurdle
Friday 19th March, 13.30
Alaivan – 1 point win

Cheltenham 2010: RSA Chase

The RSA Chase will take place on 17th March 2010 and as ever, will feature nineteen fences spread over 3 miles 110 yards. The race is for novices aged five or older and was last year won by Scoop Troop tip Cooldine (pictured right) in impressive fashion. Winning connections will pick up £85,515 for victory - Scoop!

With 34 runners left after last week’s scratchings, there’s still a little thinning to be done in this field. Seven is the number in terms of age, as eight of the last ten winners have been seven years old, including all of the last three. That’s probably a bit too narrow, so we’ll expand a little. Star de Mohaison is the only party pooper in the last ten years, winning the race aged five, but to find another five year old winner, you have to go back to 1950 and the last winner who was older than eight was Minnehoma in 1992, aged nine. Six year olds don’t fare too much better, with no wins in the last ten and just two wins in the last thirty renewals. Seven and eight year olds it is then.

Another important trend is chasing experience – all of the last ten winners of the RSA Chase had run at least three times over fences. This allows me to confidently rule out a few more, including the highly fancied Punchestowns (left) and Diamond Harry, as well as the Pricewise pick Uimhiraceathair.

Preparation for the race is extremely important and horses must be coming into the RSA Chase in some kind of form – 32 of the last 35 winners had finished first or second last time out. With this in mind, plus the news that Pandorama has been declared by connections as “highly unlikely” to run after pulling a muscle, the field can be further reduced to twelve.

Interestingly, the last ten winners of the race had a total of 43 runs in chases between them, with just four falls/unseats and the last five winners all had a 100% record in completing the course. Using this knowledge I feel comfortable eliminating Jandali and Little Josh, as they both have two falls to their name.

Apt Approach doesn’t impress me at all. The horse looks held by stablemate Citizen Vic (right) on form and has failed to win a race over further than 17 furlongs, which raises stamina questions. I’m not a fan of The Package either and the fact that the horse hasn’t run since the start of December will definitely count against it. Lines through these two.

Knockara Beau hasn’t had a proper race in ages, running in tiny fields and he’s been twice beaten by Weird Al. Last time out he was two and a half lengths behind off level weights. I’m also not keen on Ogee, whose routine win last time out didn’t do anything to impress me and who was soundly beaten by Long Run and Tazbar at Kempton, who I’ve already ruled out.

This leaves me with the following five, who I’m really struggling to separate: Weapon’s Amnesty, Hey Big Spender, Clan Tara, Citizen Vic and Weird Al. It’s time to go with the gut.

I really liked Cooldine last year. The horse, trained by Willie Mullins, won the PJ Moriarty Chase en route to winning the RSA Chase. Although not much of a trial for the RSA, it was also won by 1998’s RSA winner Florida Pearl, a horse also trained by Mullins. Due to the strong record of Mullins runners in this race (eight runners in the last eleven years; three winners, two seconds and three unplaced, all of which fell whilst still in contention) I’m inclined to favour Citizen Vic (best price 33/1, widely available). I do quite like Weird Al (seen above, best price 11/1, Paddy Power and William Hill) though I think the horse’s inexperience means a small bet is the way forward.

RSA Chase
Wednesday 17th March, 14.40
Citizen Vic – 0.5 pts e/w
Weird Al – 0.5 pts e/w