Cheltenham 2010: Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The Ladbrokes World Hurdle is run on Cheltenham’s New Course, over a distance of three miles, featuring twelve hurdles. Horses aged four or older can take part and this year’s hot favourite (best price on offer 8/13, from William Hill and SportingBet) is the defending champion, the Paul Nicholls trained Big Buck’s (see right).

There are sixteen hopefuls lined up for this year’s World Hurdle, but that number can be halved if we look at the last time out form of the last ten winners of the race. By last ten winners, I am going back to 1996 – Inglis Drever and Baracouda won the race five years out of the last ten, so I’m just looking at their stats for the first time they won the World Hurdle. But yeah, looking at LTO form for the last ten winners, eight had finished in the first two and four from the last five were LTO winners.

No five year old has won the World Hurdle and only one horse older than nine has achieved the feat. Nine year olds don’t have a great record, with only four winners in the last 35 years and two of those were repeat winners. Eight year olds don’t fare much better, with five winners in thirty years; two of those were repeat winners too. It looks like six and seven year olds are best placed to make a challenge to Big Buck’s then.

Time For Rupert (left) and Karabak are the only two that adhere to the above profile (though Big Buck’s himself also fits the bill).

Of the two, Karabak would tempt me the most, in terms of a potential winner. My pick for last year’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, the bay gelding finished second in that race. Although none of the last ten World Hurdle winners had any winning Cheltenham Festival form (again, not including the repeat winners, who obviously did) six of them had placed at a previous Festival, five of those finishing in second place.

Karabak (left) is yet to score over three miles, unlike Time For Rupert, but half of the last ten winners had also never won over three miles prior to their first World Hurdle win, so I don’t see that as a massive problem. He dug in well and stuck on gamely after messing up the final hurdle in the rescheduled Long Walk, suggesting that he gets the trip and is up for the challenge. In truth, he’s probably still progressing. Whether he can progress enough to beat Big Buck’s, I’m not sure, but at a best price 15/2 (Coral, e/w terms first three, a quarter the odds) it really does look like an each way bet to nothing.

In terms of value, Time For Rupert (right) looks a nice bet too. The best price 20/1 (widely available) looks insulting for a horse than has winning course and distance form, appears to act on all types of ground, is being targeted solely at this race and that ran second in the Cleeve Hurdle, giving the winner 4lbs in the process. This is surely overpriced and Coral’s 14/1 seems a lot nearer the mark.

I have to say, Big Buck’s does look the most likely winner of the race. The World Hurdle has thrown up five repeat winners in the last ten years and this year’s hot favourite has all the form in the book and rightly heads the market. For the casual punter though, 8/13 is no fun, so I’d fancy taking it on with both Time For Rupert and Karabak. As previously mentioned, the latter seems a genuine bet to nothing and the former seems insultingly overpriced.

Hell, why not thrown in a cheeky combination tricast, just for fun?

The World Hurdle sponsors are offering a £25 free bet to all new accounts - why not sign up and take advantage of the offer to back Karabak?

Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Thursday 18th March, 15.20
Karabak 2.5pts e/w

Time For Rupert 0.5 pts e/w

Cheltenham 2010: Ryanair Chase

With Cheltenham fast approaching and the excitement building, I couldn’t resist getting stuck into another Festival preview on my day off. So far I’ve only had chance to look at three races, all on different days, so I’d better pick one from the Thursday – let’s have a look at the Ryanair Chase.

Correctly titled “The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase”, the Ryanair Chase is open to horses aged five or older and is contested over two miles and five furlongs, with seventeen fences in total. Last year's winners was Imperial Commander (right). As the race is relatively new to the Cheltenham Festival, my usual trends based approach will be somewhat stretched. Let’s see how we get on.

As Prestbury Park, famous for its testing undulations, finds a lot of horses out, it seems common sense to start the search for a winner by removing those with no Cheltenham winning form. All five previous winners of this race had won at Cheltenham prior to their Festival Trophy victories, four of which had won over the same distance. Focussing on horses that have already won at Cheltenham leaves us with ten of the 33 to concentrate on.

A race to look at for potential pointers is the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Of the five Ryanair Chase winners, Thisthatandtother and Imperial Commander both won the race en route to Cheltenham and Fondmort and Our Vic were both past winners of the race, albeit not in the same season. Taranis didn’t win the Paddy Power, but did run a big race, leading for a time and he wasn’t that far off in second place, when falling two from home. With this in mind, I can focus on just Tranquil Sea, Poquelin and Our Vic.

This is presumably the same line of thought followed by the odds compilers, as Tranquil Sea (below) and Poquelin, first and second in the Paddy Power back in November, both head the Ryanair Chase market at a best priced 9/2 (Coral).

Of the pair I’d have to side with Tranquil Sea, not just because he beat Poquelin in the Paddy Power with something in hand, form which was franked as Poquelin won the Boylesports Gold Cup from eventual Racing Post Chase winner Razor Royale, but his jumping is flawless and he goes on any ground.

That said, I wouldn’t totally discount Our Vic (right). At twelve years old, he’s no spring chicken, but the best price 66/1 (William Hill and Ladbrokes) is quite insulting for a hardened campaigner who won this race two years ago and was second the year before. By contrast, Victor Chandler and ToteSport are a more respectable 25/1, which is probably more like it. For value reasons, I’ll be nibbling at Our Vic each way.

Ryanair Chase
Thursday 18th March, 14.40
Tranquil Sea 3 pts win
Our Vic 0.25 pts e/w