Love match play golf so had a few small bets on outsiders in the outright market (all prices Ladbrokes):
Steve Stricker @ 50/1 WON 1st Round v. Dustin Johnson (2&1)
Andres Romero @ 66/1 LOST 1st Round v. Justin Leonard (2&1)
Richard Sterne @ 80/1 LOST 1st Round v. Stewart Cink (19 holes)
M-A Jimenez @ 150/1 WON 1st Round v. Rory Sabbatini (2&1)
Stricker plays Ernie Els in the 2nd Round, and Jimenez plays Villegas. Tough games but winnable.
Tuesday, 24 February 2009
Sunday, 22 February 2009
GG Monies*
*unless Valencia win.
Had a terrible weekend betting wise. I've barely managed one winner all weekend and ridiculously I haven't placed one bet on the only sport I'm probably a lifetime winner at - Greyhounds. Reading the form online gives me a headache after one or two races for some reason. I'll need to start buying the RP more often.
Worst thing was yesterday was when I had a treble on draws in the Boro/Wigan, Stoke/Pompey and Aldershit/Morecambe games. At some point in the first half I mistakenly think I've got Acc and Stanley/Dag & Red instead of the Aldershot game and when Pompey get a late equaliser I'm pretty much doing a lap of the living room. Was gutted to discover the error of my ways.
To make things worse Kenny, the random punter, scoops his coupon. I should use the pin in the coupon method too!
So, anyway, I need Valencia to beat Deportivo to get me out for the weekend after early successes for Sampdoria and Toon/Everton draw.
One Time David Villa.
Had a terrible weekend betting wise. I've barely managed one winner all weekend and ridiculously I haven't placed one bet on the only sport I'm probably a lifetime winner at - Greyhounds. Reading the form online gives me a headache after one or two races for some reason. I'll need to start buying the RP more often.
Worst thing was yesterday was when I had a treble on draws in the Boro/Wigan, Stoke/Pompey and Aldershit/Morecambe games. At some point in the first half I mistakenly think I've got Acc and Stanley/Dag & Red instead of the Aldershot game and when Pompey get a late equaliser I'm pretty much doing a lap of the living room. Was gutted to discover the error of my ways.
To make things worse Kenny, the random punter, scoops his coupon. I should use the pin in the coupon method too!
So, anyway, I need Valencia to beat Deportivo to get me out for the weekend after early successes for Sampdoria and Toon/Everton draw.
One Time David Villa.
Saturday, 21 February 2009
21st February - Big day of racing
Tomorrow is the Racing Post Chase at Kempton and although I’ve not had as much time as I’d like to study the form, due to working every day since last Tuesday and being generally shattered, I’m going to have a little dabble.
All the talk is about Big Fella Thanks and although it’s got a great chance, I think a small value bet is far preferable, with the favourite at a skinny 5.2 on Betfair.
A key trend seems to be last time out form – nine of the last ten winners won last time out, the one that didn’t ran well in it’s previous three races, losing them all with costly jumping errors near the end. Using that key stat, you can whittle the 20-strong field down to the favourite, Nacarat and Fleet Street. Eight year olds do best in the race, which would point to Nacarat, who must surely have a chance with AP McCoy in the saddle, but there are a few niggles. The race is run over three miles and Nacarat has never performed at anything over two miles five furlongs, plus the gelding is up 12lbs for his last time out success, which doesn’t inspire confidence when there are stamina questions.
That means I’ll be taking a chance with Fleet Street. Nicky Henderson’s had a few winners the past couple of days, Barry Geraghty was in the saddle for two of those and he has the ride on the selection. Hopefully this is the start of a return to form and Fleet Street can do the business at a healthy 16.5 (Betfair).
The other race I’ll be watching with interest at work is the Eider Chase, twenty minutes later. The race was won last year by one Comply Or Die (left) and has been won in the past by horses who have gone on to do okay in the Scottish National. I’ll be keeping my eye on it as we build up to the National in April.
Jass comes into the race in great form but much like Big Fella Thanks in the RP Chase, there’s little value in the skinny price (4.3 at Betfair), especially considering the facts that he’s up 20lbs for his latest successes and only one favourite has won in the last eight renewals. It’s got to be worth having a small stakes dabble with a bigger priced type.
There are only a couple of horses in the race who have proven they can stay anything like the distance; Jass is one of them, but as I’m in the mood for opposing the favourites, I’m going to plump for Fair Question. Half of the last eight winners won last time out, with a couple of others coming second, indicating that a good run last time out is a useful thing to have – the selection won last time out, over 30 furlongs.
Stats-fest: the average starting price of the last eight winners is around 11/1 and the selection is currently 11.5 on Betfair (10.5/1). Donald McCain Jr has a good record in chases this season, with a 19% strike rate from 114 runners, yielding a level stakes profit of £33.63. In addition, jockey Jason McGuire yields a level stakes profit of £9.99 from his 33 rides at Newcastle (last five years) with a 27.27% strike rate and he has been profitable to follow in all chases in the last twelve months (£16.17, 17.34% strike rate from 173 mounts).
The stats say that if there’s a fair question over the ability of Jass, oppose him with Fair Question.
Fleet Street
15:10 Kempton
0.5 pts e/w
Fair Question
15:30 Newcastle
0.5 pts e/w
All the talk is about Big Fella Thanks and although it’s got a great chance, I think a small value bet is far preferable, with the favourite at a skinny 5.2 on Betfair.
A key trend seems to be last time out form – nine of the last ten winners won last time out, the one that didn’t ran well in it’s previous three races, losing them all with costly jumping errors near the end. Using that key stat, you can whittle the 20-strong field down to the favourite, Nacarat and Fleet Street. Eight year olds do best in the race, which would point to Nacarat, who must surely have a chance with AP McCoy in the saddle, but there are a few niggles. The race is run over three miles and Nacarat has never performed at anything over two miles five furlongs, plus the gelding is up 12lbs for his last time out success, which doesn’t inspire confidence when there are stamina questions.
That means I’ll be taking a chance with Fleet Street. Nicky Henderson’s had a few winners the past couple of days, Barry Geraghty was in the saddle for two of those and he has the ride on the selection. Hopefully this is the start of a return to form and Fleet Street can do the business at a healthy 16.5 (Betfair).
The other race I’ll be watching with interest at work is the Eider Chase, twenty minutes later. The race was won last year by one Comply Or Die (left) and has been won in the past by horses who have gone on to do okay in the Scottish National. I’ll be keeping my eye on it as we build up to the National in April.Jass comes into the race in great form but much like Big Fella Thanks in the RP Chase, there’s little value in the skinny price (4.3 at Betfair), especially considering the facts that he’s up 20lbs for his latest successes and only one favourite has won in the last eight renewals. It’s got to be worth having a small stakes dabble with a bigger priced type.
There are only a couple of horses in the race who have proven they can stay anything like the distance; Jass is one of them, but as I’m in the mood for opposing the favourites, I’m going to plump for Fair Question. Half of the last eight winners won last time out, with a couple of others coming second, indicating that a good run last time out is a useful thing to have – the selection won last time out, over 30 furlongs.
Stats-fest: the average starting price of the last eight winners is around 11/1 and the selection is currently 11.5 on Betfair (10.5/1). Donald McCain Jr has a good record in chases this season, with a 19% strike rate from 114 runners, yielding a level stakes profit of £33.63. In addition, jockey Jason McGuire yields a level stakes profit of £9.99 from his 33 rides at Newcastle (last five years) with a 27.27% strike rate and he has been profitable to follow in all chases in the last twelve months (£16.17, 17.34% strike rate from 173 mounts).
The stats say that if there’s a fair question over the ability of Jass, oppose him with Fair Question.
Fleet Street
15:10 Kempton
0.5 pts e/w
Fair Question
15:30 Newcastle
0.5 pts e/w
Thursday, 19 February 2009
Sky Sports Dogs Tonight
Final of the Blue Square Arc tonight which I have some interest in - see post a few down - and should be a good night of racing and I've picked out some selections for every televised race. Some very big prices on Betfair.
7.40 - T2 Brickfield Class: Tough race and have sided with T2 but not with massive confidence. Price not that appealing at 3.85 and nearly swayed with the value in Illusionist.
8.00 - T2 Boherduff Monti: Favourite pulled out, this is probably next best. Currently only 2.1 on Betfair though.
8.15 - T6 London Water: Short priced favourite in T3 might experience some trouble on the inside so I'm siding with T6 to score with a clear run. Currently 3.55 on BF but should get bigger as the market matures.
8.35 - T4 Swift Stirling: Favourite in T6 is again short but race is going to be tight. Think T4 has the quality to get a decent run. Betfair 4.8.
8.50 - T4 Villamartin Nogo: Should be handy throughout and if getting a decent run has recorded some decent times recently that would be fast enough to win this. Good price too - 11.5 valooooooooo.
9.10 - T6 Rough Bellamy: T1 is top class and could be an absolute gimmee here but massive odds on so I'm picked out some value in T4. Hopefully T1 finds some trouble over a trip shorter than it usally runs. Currently 32 on Betfair!!!
9.25 - T4 Anzio: Running over it's home track and has a good chance at a good price. 11 on Betfair atm. Has good times over the 480m track so hopefully can translate that to the 509m trip.
9.45 - T2 Corrig Vieri: The big one. One time Corrig.
GL all.
7.40 - T2 Brickfield Class: Tough race and have sided with T2 but not with massive confidence. Price not that appealing at 3.85 and nearly swayed with the value in Illusionist.
8.00 - T2 Boherduff Monti: Favourite pulled out, this is probably next best. Currently only 2.1 on Betfair though.
8.15 - T6 London Water: Short priced favourite in T3 might experience some trouble on the inside so I'm siding with T6 to score with a clear run. Currently 3.55 on BF but should get bigger as the market matures.
8.35 - T4 Swift Stirling: Favourite in T6 is again short but race is going to be tight. Think T4 has the quality to get a decent run. Betfair 4.8.
8.50 - T4 Villamartin Nogo: Should be handy throughout and if getting a decent run has recorded some decent times recently that would be fast enough to win this. Good price too - 11.5 valooooooooo.
9.10 - T6 Rough Bellamy: T1 is top class and could be an absolute gimmee here but massive odds on so I'm picked out some value in T4. Hopefully T1 finds some trouble over a trip shorter than it usally runs. Currently 32 on Betfair!!!
9.25 - T4 Anzio: Running over it's home track and has a good chance at a good price. 11 on Betfair atm. Has good times over the 480m track so hopefully can translate that to the 509m trip.
9.45 - T2 Corrig Vieri: The big one. One time Corrig.
GL all.
Monday, 16 February 2009
The Greatest Group On Facebook?
How I laughed!
http://en-gb.facebook.com/group.php?gid=47403524050&ref=nf
http://en-gb.facebook.com/group.php?gid=47403524050&ref=nf
Saturday, 14 February 2009
Greyhound Action
Had to go to Inverness with the work on Wednesday and on my dinner break I picked up a Racing Post to have a nosey at the dogs. I noticed that the 2nd round of the Blue Square Arc was that night at Swindon.
Picked out Corrig Vieri at a tasty 12/1 and was desperate to get some money on it to win the Arc outright. Unfortuantely, I wasn't due back til 9pm and all the heats would have been over by then resulting in a cut in price for Corrig. Tried phoning my entire phonebook to get someone to get a bet on for me. No fucking joy!
Get home to see Corrig Vieri won it's heat fairly comfortably in the fastest time of the round and was cut to best price 6/1. I have to get a bit on cos I'd be sick if it won. Weak martket on Betfair so no enhanced prices there like usual.
Corrig is now best price 4/1 and runs in the 2nd semi final tonight - I except this race to play out exactly the same as the previous round with Corrig Vieri following Mountjoy Ruby round before being too strong. I'll be dabbling on the straight forecast. One Time!
Scott
Picked out Corrig Vieri at a tasty 12/1 and was desperate to get some money on it to win the Arc outright. Unfortuantely, I wasn't due back til 9pm and all the heats would have been over by then resulting in a cut in price for Corrig. Tried phoning my entire phonebook to get someone to get a bet on for me. No fucking joy!
Get home to see Corrig Vieri won it's heat fairly comfortably in the fastest time of the round and was cut to best price 6/1. I have to get a bit on cos I'd be sick if it won. Weak martket on Betfair so no enhanced prices there like usual.
Corrig is now best price 4/1 and runs in the 2nd semi final tonight - I except this race to play out exactly the same as the previous round with Corrig Vieri following Mountjoy Ruby round before being too strong. I'll be dabbling on the straight forecast. One Time!
Scott
Friday, 6 February 2009
Thursday, 5 February 2009
Full pelt on Full Tilt
Scott pointed me to full tilt when I mentioned that I was looking to get into tournaments.
I ventured there for a quick gamble to see what it was like and I was extremely impressed.
I want to recommend specifically the 45 man and less, $10 and $5 sng's to anyone willing to try them.
After playing about 4 of them somehow I've managed to win 2 and bubble unluckily (word?).
The structure is good enough but better still, the players are possibly worse than those at dups!
So get on it, get on it large.
Watch this space for more scooping. Maybe I'll try a couple of larger fielded ones too.
I ventured there for a quick gamble to see what it was like and I was extremely impressed.
I want to recommend specifically the 45 man and less, $10 and $5 sng's to anyone willing to try them.
After playing about 4 of them somehow I've managed to win 2 and bubble unluckily (word?).
The structure is good enough but better still, the players are possibly worse than those at dups!
So get on it, get on it large.
Watch this space for more scooping. Maybe I'll try a couple of larger fielded ones too.
Wednesday, 4 February 2009
A bet for February 4th
Think I might have found a decent bet for tomorrow.
All the talk in the 19:50 at Lingfield is about Street Power. Go to any major horse racing website and they’re all tipping the 3.65 (Betfair, time of writing) favourite. As we all know, favourites on the all weather aren’t great value long term and I think it’s worth opposing, despite the two C&D wins and the in form Greg Fairley on board. It’s run very keenly in it’s last two and it didn’t break well last time out, suggesting it’s not the simplest of rides. The 6lb penalty won’t make things easier either.
Divertimenti on the other hand, is an easier ride and though it has no form at the track, it’s won at Lingfield which is the same Polytrack surface as Kempton. Running off the same mark as last time out, when it struck under 5lb claimer James O’Reilly (first time aboard too), it shouldn’t have too many problems making the frame and at 6.8 on Betfair just now, it rates a decent bet in my eyes.
Duke Of Milan (5.2 just now on Betfair) is consistent, but looks one of those that doesn’t like winning – it’s been second the last three times! That said, he’s recently lost by half a length to Street Power and is now on much better terms (leaving me even more confused as to why Street Power is such a fancied favourite). Should place.
Chris Catlin knows a thing or two about the all weather and he’s on Convallaria, who won over C&D last time out, but it’s up 5lb since then and that’s 5lb higher than it’s ever won off. He’s had a shot on this one before, at this mark and over C&D too, with no joy, so the booking doesn’t turn my head.
The only other to consider for me, is Ian Mongan’s steed Marmooq. It’s another with a little bit of form on the surface, though not much, but it’s another running off a mark which looks too high. Winning over C&D in Jan off 59, it runs tomorrow off 64 and it’s other AW wins have come off far lower than 59, suggesting it’s been previously well handicapped. Probable place contention.
If you don’t trust my judgement in selecting winning horses, I can understand that, so maybe it’s worth laying Street Power instead with Duke Of Milan on better terms and a couple of others with chances. I’ll be putting my money where my ample mouth is with a couple of points invested in Divertimenti, which looks the best horse in this field to me, with a valuable 5lbs removed by what looks to be a capable, up-and-coming claimer.
19:50 Kempton
Divertimenti
2pts win
All the talk in the 19:50 at Lingfield is about Street Power. Go to any major horse racing website and they’re all tipping the 3.65 (Betfair, time of writing) favourite. As we all know, favourites on the all weather aren’t great value long term and I think it’s worth opposing, despite the two C&D wins and the in form Greg Fairley on board. It’s run very keenly in it’s last two and it didn’t break well last time out, suggesting it’s not the simplest of rides. The 6lb penalty won’t make things easier either.
Divertimenti on the other hand, is an easier ride and though it has no form at the track, it’s won at Lingfield which is the same Polytrack surface as Kempton. Running off the same mark as last time out, when it struck under 5lb claimer James O’Reilly (first time aboard too), it shouldn’t have too many problems making the frame and at 6.8 on Betfair just now, it rates a decent bet in my eyes.
Duke Of Milan (5.2 just now on Betfair) is consistent, but looks one of those that doesn’t like winning – it’s been second the last three times! That said, he’s recently lost by half a length to Street Power and is now on much better terms (leaving me even more confused as to why Street Power is such a fancied favourite). Should place.
Chris Catlin knows a thing or two about the all weather and he’s on Convallaria, who won over C&D last time out, but it’s up 5lb since then and that’s 5lb higher than it’s ever won off. He’s had a shot on this one before, at this mark and over C&D too, with no joy, so the booking doesn’t turn my head.
The only other to consider for me, is Ian Mongan’s steed Marmooq. It’s another with a little bit of form on the surface, though not much, but it’s another running off a mark which looks too high. Winning over C&D in Jan off 59, it runs tomorrow off 64 and it’s other AW wins have come off far lower than 59, suggesting it’s been previously well handicapped. Probable place contention.
If you don’t trust my judgement in selecting winning horses, I can understand that, so maybe it’s worth laying Street Power instead with Duke Of Milan on better terms and a couple of others with chances. I’ll be putting my money where my ample mouth is with a couple of points invested in Divertimenti, which looks the best horse in this field to me, with a valuable 5lbs removed by what looks to be a capable, up-and-coming claimer.
19:50 Kempton
Divertimenti
2pts win
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