Wednesday, 4 February 2009

A bet for February 4th

Think I might have found a decent bet for tomorrow.

All the talk in the 19:50 at Lingfield is about Street Power. Go to any major horse racing website and they’re all tipping the 3.65 (Betfair, time of writing) favourite. As we all know, favourites on the all weather aren’t great value long term and I think it’s worth opposing, despite the two C&D wins and the in form Greg Fairley on board. It’s run very keenly in it’s last two and it didn’t break well last time out, suggesting it’s not the simplest of rides. The 6lb penalty won’t make things easier either.

Divertimenti on the other hand, is an easier ride and though it has no form at the track, it’s won at Lingfield which is the same Polytrack surface as Kempton. Running off the same mark as last time out, when it struck under 5lb claimer James O’Reilly (first time aboard too), it shouldn’t have too many problems making the frame and at 6.8 on Betfair just now, it rates a decent bet in my eyes.

Duke Of Milan (5.2 just now on Betfair) is consistent, but looks one of those that doesn’t like winning – it’s been second the last three times! That said, he’s recently lost by half a length to Street Power and is now on much better terms (leaving me even more confused as to why Street Power is such a fancied favourite). Should place.

Chris Catlin knows a thing or two about the all weather and he’s on Convallaria, who won over C&D last time out, but it’s up 5lb since then and that’s 5lb higher than it’s ever won off. He’s had a shot on this one before, at this mark and over C&D too, with no joy, so the booking doesn’t turn my head.

The only other to consider for me, is Ian Mongan’s steed Marmooq. It’s another with a little bit of form on the surface, though not much, but it’s another running off a mark which looks too high. Winning over C&D in Jan off 59, it runs tomorrow off 64 and it’s other AW wins have come off far lower than 59, suggesting it’s been previously well handicapped. Probable place contention.

If you don’t trust my judgement in selecting winning horses, I can understand that, so maybe it’s worth laying Street Power instead with Duke Of Milan on better terms and a couple of others with chances. I’ll be putting my money where my ample mouth is with a couple of points invested in Divertimenti, which looks the best horse in this field to me, with a valuable 5lbs removed by what looks to be a capable, up-and-coming claimer.

19:50 Kempton
2pts win


Anonymous said...

am on lets hope your right

moDtheGod said...

Randoms following my bets? Odd!

My pick beat the two I was worried about, but unfortunately all three were behind some random horses. Was an odd race.

I hope you all layed the favourite ;)