Saturday, 21 February 2009

21st February - Big day of racing

Tomorrow is the Racing Post Chase at Kempton and although I’ve not had as much time as I’d like to study the form, due to working every day since last Tuesday and being generally shattered, I’m going to have a little dabble.

All the talk is about Big Fella Thanks and although it’s got a great chance, I think a small value bet is far preferable, with the favourite at a skinny 5.2 on Betfair.

A key trend seems to be last time out form – nine of the last ten winners won last time out, the one that didn’t ran well in it’s previous three races, losing them all with costly jumping errors near the end. Using that key stat, you can whittle the 20-strong field down to the favourite, Nacarat and Fleet Street. Eight year olds do best in the race, which would point to Nacarat, who must surely have a chance with AP McCoy in the saddle, but there are a few niggles. The race is run over three miles and Nacarat has never performed at anything over two miles five furlongs, plus the gelding is up 12lbs for his last time out success, which doesn’t inspire confidence when there are stamina questions.

That means I’ll be taking a chance with Fleet Street. Nicky Henderson’s had a few winners the past couple of days, Barry Geraghty was in the saddle for two of those and he has the ride on the selection. Hopefully this is the start of a return to form and Fleet Street can do the business at a healthy 16.5 (Betfair).

The other race I’ll be watching with interest at work is the Eider Chase, twenty minutes later. The race was won last year by one Comply Or Die (left) and has been won in the past by horses who have gone on to do okay in the Scottish National. I’ll be keeping my eye on it as we build up to the National in April.

Jass comes into the race in great form but much like Big Fella Thanks in the RP Chase, there’s little value in the skinny price (4.3 at Betfair), especially considering the facts that he’s up 20lbs for his latest successes and only one favourite has won in the last eight renewals. It’s got to be worth having a small stakes dabble with a bigger priced type.

There are only a couple of horses in the race who have proven they can stay anything like the distance; Jass is one of them, but as I’m in the mood for opposing the favourites, I’m going to plump for Fair Question. Half of the last eight winners won last time out, with a couple of others coming second, indicating that a good run last time out is a useful thing to have – the selection won last time out, over 30 furlongs.

Stats-fest: the average starting price of the last eight winners is around 11/1 and the selection is currently 11.5 on Betfair (10.5/1). Donald McCain Jr has a good record in chases this season, with a 19% strike rate from 114 runners, yielding a level stakes profit of £33.63. In addition, jockey Jason McGuire yields a level stakes profit of £9.99 from his 33 rides at Newcastle (last five years) with a 27.27% strike rate and he has been profitable to follow in all chases in the last twelve months (£16.17, 17.34% strike rate from 173 mounts).

The stats say that if there’s a fair question over the ability of Jass, oppose him with Fair Question.

Fleet Street
15:10 Kempton
0.5 pts e/w

Fair Question
15:30 Newcastle
0.5 pts e/w


TheHat said...

[ ] gl sir

Battlecry and Laskari e/w for me

Will Walsh said...

I'm with Scott on Battlecry-its his trip ground and time of the year for him

The Kenster said...

just bet on the one dom eliminates in future.

moDtheGod said...

I'm a bit annoyed. It met all my criteria and then I plumped for the one that met slightly less criteria. Why do I do that? I do it all the time!

Fair Question was going alright in the second race until it fell, that was pretty annoying.