Tuesday, 5 January 2010

Tuesday Tip

Enjoying the memories Tim, keep up the good work.

Not much racing around of late due to the weather, but Southwell’s all weather surface provides us with a chance to make a few bob tomorrow.

Moonshine Creek in the Hospitality At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (3.10) makes a lot of appeal. In the capable hands of champion AW jockey Chris Catlin (right), the selection is dropping down in class after running second over course and distance last time out. The eight year old bay gelding has run five times on the AW and now appears to be getting the hang of it, with a win and a second on Lingfield’s Polytrack surface, followed by a second on the Southwell Fibresand (last three outings).

He pulled hard under an amateur for his win at Lingfield and was hanging on at the end, but he’s settled much better in the last two races under Catlin and was not disgraced in either of those second place finishes.

Always keen to oppose favourites on the AW anyway, Silken Promise doesn’t really do that much for me as he has yet to register a win (nine attempts, five on AW) and has never even run on the Fibresand. He is getting a fair bit of weight from the selection, but Moonshine Creek is a big enough type to cope easily with a bit of poundage and his all out win at Lingfield was under a cumbersome 10st 7lbs, over a stone more than today’s weights. The favourite’s OR has risen by 2lbs after his LTO 2nd place, whilst the selection’s OR remains the same.

Finally, the stable have had a couple of near misses over the last week and notched an 8/1 winner today (beating the even money favourite by a neck), which should hopefully signal a bit of form. Moonshine Creek is the trainer’s only runner today. Following Mr Hiatt’s AW horses over the last few years has been profitable anyway (£40 level stakes 2008, £9 level stakes 2009) and the horse itself had a respectable 27% strike rate from eleven runs last year and was also profitable to follow. Catlin won one in five races for Hiatt in 2009 (45 runs) and the backing the partnership showed level stakes profit of £19.33.

Currently 5.9 on Betfair, fill your boots.


TheHat said...

Thanks Dom, will be on.

Mountain Man said...

Thank god for all weather tracks ! Snow here again today worse than ever, and it's going to flood again when this lot melts. I reckon disruption to the racing calendar (and life in general) until February at the earliest

Tom said...

Thanks for the tip.

moDtheGod said...

Fuck's sake, that's about my luck at the minute. The horse broke down halfway round. Hope it's alright.

www.empresas3d.com said...

Well, I do not actually imagine it is likely to have success.