I'm Not Dead...

It's been a long time since you've heard from me (I guess that makes you the lucky ones, then !) so I figured it was about time that I gave you a quick update on what has been going on in my world in recent weeks.

Most of you know that on June 25th, I was admitted to York Hospital to undergo my gastric bypass operation, and apart from a couple of minor mishaps whilst in surgery, I can report that this was a success. I was both shocked and delighted to find that on attending the outpatients last week I had lost just over 3 stone in 4 weeks ! Weight loss prop bet, anyone ? ;-)

I've also started getting back into motorcycle racing again after a few years in the wilderness whilst living in Dundee, and have been involved in sourcing parts for an upcoming project where I will be assisting in the building of a sidecar racing machine, although my input has probably been less than helpful at times due to feeling pretty lothargic since the operation.

Gambling and poker has taken a back seat since early this year, although I shall be having a think now the footie season is fast approaching in terms of who the movers and shakers shall be come the season end. Quite fancying shoving a few quid on AC Milan to take the UEFA Cup - Coral are offering 7/1 right now on this.

Thanks for reading,
Mountain Man

Neteller! Nooooo!!!

Just tried to withdraw there from neteller, and they've changed the charge for withdrawing to your bank account on a bank transfer from £1 to £5. So that sucks!!!

Saving and Shaving

Its been tough. I went on tilt after like 1 week of doing well, but I got greedy, never cashed out and consequently almost went bust. I've managed to scrape together a cashout of £50 which is the equivalent to £1000 to anyone who isnt skint, but my 'roll' isnt growing. Still at $40 (lol). I've also got rakeback on the go which will give me over €50 back, again, pennies, but you take the small victories when you can!

Hopefully I can keep making small cashouts until I'm out of the ... mire ... of not having ANY money whatsoever.

Congrats to Dom on his free bet thingy, I hope you can get something good out of it.

Oh yeh, and I shaved recently. It feels good.
Thats all, folks!

Sports betting requires skill

Sports betting requires skill, there's no two ways about it. Mugs are not rewarded, they are punished and only those with intricate knowledge of the markets that they play will win out.

Let's take golf as an example. I have no idea about golf whatsoever, so when I entered the latest Beat Victor game at Victor Chandler, my selections of Padraig Harrington, Jim Furyk and Ian Poulter to win the Open were basically random- I picked Harrington cos I've heard of him and he won it last year, I picked Furyk literally at random and I picked Poulter cos he wears funky clothes, like our very own Scott Campbell.

Anyway, I checked the results last night to see if I'd scooped a free £5 bet by beating Victor's selections (Harrington, Rose and Allenby) and I saw Harrington had won and Poulter had come second. I explained to the missus that I'd probably won a free £5 because of that, which was cool. Anyway, it was only when I double checked my selections that I saw the overall winner won a £500 free bet (I genuinely had no idea about that when I entered, I was playing for a free £5 bet) so I thought I had best check how Furyk got on - with first and second locked up, I could be in with a chance! Furyk had tied for fifth and unless someone had picked Poulter, Harrington and Greg Norman, it looked likely I'd scoop the maximum!

Logged in to MSN this afternoon to be greeted by Scott telling me I'd won. Of course, I figured this was his idea of a sick joke as I'd spoken to him about it last night, so I went and checked and was greeted with:


Scoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooop! lol donakaments.

Nottingham owns

Just back from Nottingham – it’s a really nice little course, I enjoyed it today. Was pretty quiet, but considering the standard of racing and the fact that Southwell had a meeting too, it was quite well attended, similar numbers to the Perth evening card, maybe a few more. Taking a leaf out of the Scoop Troop book of how to dress for the races, I donned a tweed jacket, black tie and trilby hat (see right) and set off with my notebook and copy of the Racing Post.

Bad beat number 1: train problem, took almost around 90 minutes to complete what ought to be a 35-40 minute journey. Never been to Nottingham before and the time I’d left myself to find my way around had been gobbled up. Eventually found the right bus and got there with ten minutes until the off. Was only £7 return too, pleased with that. Admittedly, my newly acquired railcard did shave a few bob off, but still half the price of the York fare!

Went straight for the betting ring, surprised by how few bookies there were, more surprised that Moonage Daydream is being offered at 7/2. Picked out a blonde hottie in pink as my first victim as she was offering the biggest odds (4/1) and retreated to the grandstand. Was gutted that the 5/1 or 6/1 I’d expected wasn’t there, but at least I’d got the right odds to break even should it only place and furthermore it shortened up to 11/4 and went off favourite. It finished a good 2 or so lengths back behind the Hayley Turner ride (sigh) in a photo. I think it was awarded third. Staked 0.5pts e/w, Returned 1pt. Not a terrible start.

Found the bar, pint of John Smiths £3 not ideal, but basically exactly the same as you’d pay at any other course. Out to the parade ring to look at them because the next race was the maiden. I couldn’t remember what numbers Zuzu and Master Rooney were and rather than look it up, I decided to just pick one that I liked the look of – I don’t know what to look for really, I’m not an expert, but it was an interesting exercise all the same. Anyway, I decided I liked #13 and #2 and when I discovered that Zuzu was #13, that made my decision for me and I went in for a point at 15/8 (Master Rooney being 13/8, the rest massive). It scooped by a length and a half (see bottom, first video) and the other one I had liked the look of came second last :D Staked 1pt, returned 2.88pts.

In the third race, I knew I would be backing Colorado Springs, it was just getting the price right. I was once more disappointed to see my pick shorter than I had expected, this time at 9/4 and despite waiting and waiting and waiting, it never moved. I got my 2 points on and some bookies started going 85/40, the only time it moved even slightly. It ran it’s race, but the two that finished ahead of it were canny and although I wasn’t surprised to see One Called Alice beat it, I was a bit surprised by the winner, which sadly went unclaimed. Seems like a nice prospect. The last half furlong can be enjoyed at the bottom, the last video. Staked 2pts, returned 0pts.

Straight to the betting ring for this one as I knew the price wouldn’t get any bigger. They all opened at 8/11 on Montbretia and though I wanted evens, I knew I’d not get it so I ploughed my 3 points in and went for beer and chips. Went right up to the rail to watch this one and although the favourite took her time to get going and Spencer looked like he would win on Time Control, she finally kicked on and scooped by 3 parts of a length. Staked 3pts, returned 5.18pts.

The trend of my reasonably priced e/w shots being priced up really short continued in the next, as Ink Spot and Hannicean both opened up at 9/4, nowhere near the 5/1 I thought I was going to get, so I took a few minutes to decide what to do. The price wasn’t moving so instead of 1pt e/w, I decided to go 2pts on Hannicean. Ink Spot did it’s work late on but I feel Spencer left it too late and was almost a length back, my selection was third. Staked 2pts, returned 0pts.

I’d realised a trend here, my results had gone 3, 1, 3, 1, 3 and I’d got Sarah Park as my e/w pick. I contemplated going 1pt e/w and hoping the trend would continue, but so far I had basically done everything as I had intended and it was working. At York I changed my mind late on a few times and was punished for it, so I stuck with my original shout and just went 0.5pts e/w. At least I got the price I wanted this time, 5/1. I was right up against the rail for this one too, the favourite was a good couple of lengths behind my pick and the 12/1 Barataria finished a respectable third, by a neck. I knew I should have put more on ;) Staked 0.5pts e/w, returned 4pts.

Three winners, three thirds and a profit of 3.06pts. I’ll take that!

Bad beat number 2: check my emails on the bus and Texperts have sacked me. Sacked by email, what a disgrace! Oh well, suppose I’ll just have to keep backing winners…

Got in and went straight online to back Knot In Wood in the 20.00 at Hamilton after all I’d read about it in the RP. Also discovered Matt Doyle had tipped it. Managed to get 5.2 on Betmate, just a single point as Spotlight had actually napped the co-favourite and it was a massive field. It won, anyway, for a return of 5.2pts.

Overall then, I’m on 45.55 points after a total haul of 7.27 points today. Scoop!

Eezer Goode, Eezer Goode He's Jonny Ebeneezer Goode

As some of you may remember, back in 2004(I can't believe it was that long ago) me and a certain horse called Jonny Ebeneezer struck up a winning run. I basically had followed this horse since I first started betting and I was even torn one day when he and willhewiz met in a claimer. Fortunately for me I plumped for the winning willhewiz that day.

In 2004 Jonny came I think I backed him in 4 of his wins in 2004 including a win at 20/1(sp 14/1) for Hayley Turner. The horse was trained then by David Flood who improved the horse by around 50lbs. For some reason Flood lost the horse (and was later controversially banned from training for a year) and ever since Jonny has been trained by a succession of useless cretins, namely M Wellings and K McAulife. With those 2 trainers he achieved nothing and has beaten home only 12 horse in 10 races spanning 3 years.

This year Jonny is back with David Flood and is now on a handicap mark of 62. He has had two runs this season and whilst not setting the world alight he showed a glimpse of form in his last run finishing 5th over 5F off a mark of 67. He runs tomorrow night in the 8.20 at Lingfield and has dropped a further 5lbs to 62 and runs over 6f his optimum trip. Perhaps I am being foolish thinking this horse can still win races and letting my heart rule my head but I really like this ones chances tomorrow night. The trainer should have him spot on now and at the predicted 10/1 I shall be investing some of my wages. The horse owes me nothing and even I didn't back it I would take immense pleasure in seeing this old favourite of mines win again.

PS Sorry for being AWOL for past couple weeks.I have been incredibly busy. I meant to post a blog of my trip to Perth where i had a very successful day but just didn't get the time. Oh and is anyway interested in a trip to Cheltenham for the November meeting?

Going to Nottingham

Okay, so I’m going to Nottingham tomorrow. There’s a 6 race card and there’s a few I fancy, so I’m hoping to rob from the rich (the bookies) and give to the poor (me) just like that famous Nottingham based (but actually a Yorkshireman) tree dweller, Robin Hood. It’s been raining quite a bit down here, this morning’s inspection said Good, Good to Soft in places and its probably going to rain overnight and in the morning, so I expect Good to Soft to be about right. It’s not a track I’m familiar with but research suggests there’s a slight bias to the low numbered stalls in 1m races and either very high or very low numbers in the sprints.

The 14:15 is a 6f sprint and there are several with chances. I won’t be going in big at all on this one and I suspect that were I not actually there, I would steer clear of this race. But as I WILL be there, I will be punting in every race :)

I like Moonage Daydream as things stand. Forecast around 6.0 or 7.0 it seems a good value bet for a single point e/w in a huge field. Last week it was headed on the line at this course and over this distance, albeit at a lower grade. That result was on Good to Soft, which is a positive and it came after a 4lb hike. Tomorrow it’ll be going off 5lbs lower. It’s also won before at this grade and over this distance. The forecast favourite Bonne doesn’t impress me (plus Hayley Turner is on it!) and I’d be most concerned by Jamie Spencer’s ride Devinius.

Conclusion: 0.5pts e/w on Moonage Daydream

The 14:45 is the type of race I just don’t even bother with, usually. I watch out of interest, but I try to avoid betting in these types of events. It’s a class 5 maiden for 2 year olds – yuck! Crap quality, no form and no experience, will be keeping the bet to the minimum here for sure. Everything I’ve read elsewhere seems to suggest Master Rooney will win, but that’s the problem – it’s so lazy to just say “well, it’s got experience so we’ll go with that one” and of course that means it’ll go off a crap price. Trouble is, I am still pretty new to this game and I still don’t really know what to look for in the parade ring and stuff, so in all honesty, I’m probably going to end up being lazy too and backing it. It will in part depend on how they run in the first race, as previously discussed.

Conclusion: 1 pt, not yet sure – whatever takes my eye and is drawn well, according to how the first race went. Likely to be Zuzu or Master Rooney, as they have experience and probably good draws.

The 15:20 is much more my bag, smaller field, plenty of form and 10 furlongs to reduce the amount of luck required. I’m afraid to say, and I know I’ll be shot down in flames, but I like the favourite. Well, the forecast favourite. One Called Alice is the main danger for me, it’s only raced over 10f once before and although it came third, 3 lengths back, having watched the race, it gets a bit spooked and jumps away a bit funny and it pulls a little early doors. I think if it settles right in this time, it’ll run a good race. Carry on Cleo has also acted on this ground over this trip and shouldn’t be written off, but Colorado Springs has had a second and a third off a higher mark than this, where the winners have gone on to race in much better company and being 3lbs better off than those times, returning to a trip that should suit, it looks the one to be on. The trainer’s in okay form (2 wins and 2 seconds from the last 13 and a good RP RTF stat, 70%) and has only been here twice this season too, which could suggest he’s found a race that his charge is going to be competitive in.

Conclusion: 2 pts Colorado Springs

The 15:50 looks a straightforward affair. Lura is described as an “interesting” newcomer by the RP so the market will probably advise there but that apart, Montbretia looks the obvious choice and is forecast to go off evens or likely shorter. This is almost certainly due to it’s performance running second behind Clowance, coupled with trainer Henry Cecil’s impressive record in maidens at Nottingham.

Conclusion: 3pts Montbretia

Some of you will have no doubt fallen asleep by now, so here's a hottie to wake you up. Now, focus!

Three of those running in the 16:20 ran today, so it won’t surprise me to see some withdrawn. El Dececy for example has come plum last after a stylish hattrick and will be carrying a ridiculous weight (10 st 5 lbs) should it run. Even with the 7lb claimer on board, that’s a lot to carry a day after running. Nothing particularly impressive about Kensington or Royal Storm’s runs today, either. I was tempted by the forecast favourite Ink Spot as it was only bust beaten at York recently by a really good type, but it’s done it’s best work over 6f and 7f and last time out was a first time visor, will be interesting to see if it can go well again in the visor. On top of that, it’ll be carrying a career high weight.

The Michael Jarvis trained Hannicean grabs my attention, albeit more for stats than actual horse. Jarvis has a good record here over the last 5 years, 25% overall for a £1 level stakes profit of £15.59, but notably even better with 3 and 4 year olds (30% and 33%, £12.94 and £6.91). He’s also a trainer in form, with 3 wins, 7 minor placings in the last 22, his RP RTF rating at 80%. It’s only win was a maiden last year, but a maiden that featured Maslak (three wins at this grade and has competed in higher classes) and it might prefer better ground, but I think it’s worth an e/w punt.

Conclusion: 1pt e/w Hannicean

The final race is the 16:50 and it’s another big field. To be honest, I’m so tired from looking at the other races, I almost can’t be arsed with this. I’ll be keeping my punting to the minimum as it seems there’s a few who could win it. I think I’ll probably just see how the market is with this one. The top weight took my eye initially as it only just sneaks into the lowest grade, but I think it’s still got a little to find and it probably needs to drop further before it can win. Brouhaha looks in good form, but isn’t drawn that nicely, it seems. As I mentioned earlier though, my opinion on that could change depending on how the earlier races are run. That said, it does seem to struggle to get in front, with a whole host of second and third places and at the price, it’s unlikely to be a good e/w bet. Sarah Park looks the e/w play here, second on seasonal reappearance at a higher grade and may have found the race to lose the maiden tag. The trainer shows a £22.88 level profit here over the past 5 years and a £21 profit with three year olds. There are plenty of stats that go against the selection, but at the forecast price is a difficult to call race, I’m happy with a small e/w punt.

Conclusion: 0.5pts e/w Sarah Park

P.S.
Had a single bet today, was on Matt Doyle’s 3 point tip. Checked it out, looked a good thing. Had three of my own points on at 9/2, it went off 11/4 and won by 3/4 of a length. Cha-ching. Return: 16.5 pts. Overall “real” total: 38.28 pts, an all-time high. 60% strike rate this month!

Dom's update

Okay, here's an update from me. Didn't have a great month in July. My strike rate was okay, but it seemed to be the little bets winning and not the big bets, which of course ought to be the other way round. Stats:

No. of bets – 58
Total profit – -9.01 points
Level stakes profit – -31.67 points
Strike rate – 22.41%

So I ended the month 12.48 points up overall.

So far for July, I've only placed 9 bets total, 5 of which have won for a total profit of 12.3 points. One of those was Kelamon (2pts) on Monday the 7th, which leaves me on 24.78 points in the "real" bets and 4.16 points in the A-Z, my highest total so far. I haven't placed any "L" bets yet.

Here's some graphical goodness. Not sure how to make them bigger, but they do the job. Running "real" total, followed by monthly "real" totals and A-Z overall total:





My blogging activity has decreased simply because my betting activity has too. All I've been doing really since June 28th is whoring bonuses. I've made around £360 doing that, which is cool, especially as I've still got loads more lined up. Plus I've been working every hour available at Texperts, trying to get some pennies for when HSBC remove my graduate overdraft facility.

I'm going racing at York with the missus on the 26th of this month, so I'll try and get some pictures and a little report up about that and I've got Thursday and Friday off this week, so I'm going to enjoy either Doncaster (Thursday evening), Nottingham or Southwell (both Friday afternoon) and again, will report on that.

In my personal life, my mate who I was meant to be moving in with has decided that he's not up for that any more, as his circumstances have changed. I'd normally be very angry at that, what with me having moved down here specifically to get a place with him (I could have stuck it out in Dundee with the missus for another year had I realised I wouldn't have anyone to move in with) but it seems I might have caught a lucky break. The infamous Millwall Mark Dillon has randomly decided he fancies living in Sheffield for a bit and by coincidence, he's planning it roughly the same sort of time I was, so I might now end up getting a place with him. Which would own.

Who's all coming to the IPO then, in October? I am! Probably won't play, as poker's not my thing, but will definitely be going for the piss-up, as it's Kenny's 21st. I'm running a trip to Fairyhouse on the 19th for anyone who doesn't qualify for the last day, which is goin to own. Never been Irish racing before. That reminds me actually, for those who haven't heard (I'm thinking Will, mostly) I'll be in Dundee for a piss-up on Friday August 8th. Dunno where we'll go or whatever but we'll get very drunk and such legends as Adnan Miah and International Superstar JJ Macs will be attending. Only one rule though - no casino. You can all play poker and talk boring geeky shit any other night, I'm only free for a single night so we're doing things my way. By all means gamble on my horse racing card game, but no fucking casino.

Take it easy.

PS stop fucking editing my posts, you cunts.

99th post - next one wins a prize?

I had the pleasure of enjoying young Dominic Field's company in the City of Discovery last night. As is life, it was short and sweet.
We spoke of this blog, and how nobody is around anymore. I don't know whether it was this conversation that prompted me to post, but I certainly think its a factor.

So heres whats going on in my head:

I have two jobs at the moment. They both last only 10 hours a week each. Thats 80hours a month at almost £500 earnings. A few years ago that might've been a lot of money. Its just not any more, especially with the lifestyle of drinking and gambling that I want to lead. I know I dont have a high rent or even council tax to pay, but my expenses are quite enough to leech away a fair chunk of any earnings.

So that got me thinking. I remember when poker used to be a lovely source of income. And I want those days back.

Starting from today, I'm going to play again. Maybe nothing has changed and I'll piss it away, but I'm optimistic. Its the good old £20 challenge again, but this time with a more patient approach without any added pressure of it being the only source of income. It aint even my 2nd source now!

So Dom and all you haters, (nobody even reads this blog, fs) I'm posting BEFORE I win, not after :D

Keep it real home-persons