Friday, 18 July 2008

Going to Nottingham

Okay, so I’m going to Nottingham tomorrow. There’s a 6 race card and there’s a few I fancy, so I’m hoping to rob from the rich (the bookies) and give to the poor (me) just like that famous Nottingham based (but actually a Yorkshireman) tree dweller, Robin Hood. It’s been raining quite a bit down here, this morning’s inspection said Good, Good to Soft in places and its probably going to rain overnight and in the morning, so I expect Good to Soft to be about right. It’s not a track I’m familiar with but research suggests there’s a slight bias to the low numbered stalls in 1m races and either very high or very low numbers in the sprints.

The 14:15 is a 6f sprint and there are several with chances. I won’t be going in big at all on this one and I suspect that were I not actually there, I would steer clear of this race. But as I WILL be there, I will be punting in every race :)

I like Moonage Daydream as things stand. Forecast around 6.0 or 7.0 it seems a good value bet for a single point e/w in a huge field. Last week it was headed on the line at this course and over this distance, albeit at a lower grade. That result was on Good to Soft, which is a positive and it came after a 4lb hike. Tomorrow it’ll be going off 5lbs lower. It’s also won before at this grade and over this distance. The forecast favourite Bonne doesn’t impress me (plus Hayley Turner is on it!) and I’d be most concerned by Jamie Spencer’s ride Devinius.

Conclusion: 0.5pts e/w on Moonage Daydream

The 14:45 is the type of race I just don’t even bother with, usually. I watch out of interest, but I try to avoid betting in these types of events. It’s a class 5 maiden for 2 year olds – yuck! Crap quality, no form and no experience, will be keeping the bet to the minimum here for sure. Everything I’ve read elsewhere seems to suggest Master Rooney will win, but that’s the problem – it’s so lazy to just say “well, it’s got experience so we’ll go with that one” and of course that means it’ll go off a crap price. Trouble is, I am still pretty new to this game and I still don’t really know what to look for in the parade ring and stuff, so in all honesty, I’m probably going to end up being lazy too and backing it. It will in part depend on how they run in the first race, as previously discussed.

Conclusion: 1 pt, not yet sure – whatever takes my eye and is drawn well, according to how the first race went. Likely to be Zuzu or Master Rooney, as they have experience and probably good draws.

The 15:20 is much more my bag, smaller field, plenty of form and 10 furlongs to reduce the amount of luck required. I’m afraid to say, and I know I’ll be shot down in flames, but I like the favourite. Well, the forecast favourite. One Called Alice is the main danger for me, it’s only raced over 10f once before and although it came third, 3 lengths back, having watched the race, it gets a bit spooked and jumps away a bit funny and it pulls a little early doors. I think if it settles right in this time, it’ll run a good race. Carry on Cleo has also acted on this ground over this trip and shouldn’t be written off, but Colorado Springs has had a second and a third off a higher mark than this, where the winners have gone on to race in much better company and being 3lbs better off than those times, returning to a trip that should suit, it looks the one to be on. The trainer’s in okay form (2 wins and 2 seconds from the last 13 and a good RP RTF stat, 70%) and has only been here twice this season too, which could suggest he’s found a race that his charge is going to be competitive in.

Conclusion: 2 pts Colorado Springs

The 15:50 looks a straightforward affair. Lura is described as an “interesting” newcomer by the RP so the market will probably advise there but that apart, Montbretia looks the obvious choice and is forecast to go off evens or likely shorter. This is almost certainly due to it’s performance running second behind Clowance, coupled with trainer Henry Cecil’s impressive record in maidens at Nottingham.

Conclusion: 3pts Montbretia

Some of you will have no doubt fallen asleep by now, so here's a hottie to wake you up. Now, focus!

Three of those running in the 16:20 ran today, so it won’t surprise me to see some withdrawn. El Dececy for example has come plum last after a stylish hattrick and will be carrying a ridiculous weight (10 st 5 lbs) should it run. Even with the 7lb claimer on board, that’s a lot to carry a day after running. Nothing particularly impressive about Kensington or Royal Storm’s runs today, either. I was tempted by the forecast favourite Ink Spot as it was only bust beaten at York recently by a really good type, but it’s done it’s best work over 6f and 7f and last time out was a first time visor, will be interesting to see if it can go well again in the visor. On top of that, it’ll be carrying a career high weight.

The Michael Jarvis trained Hannicean grabs my attention, albeit more for stats than actual horse. Jarvis has a good record here over the last 5 years, 25% overall for a £1 level stakes profit of £15.59, but notably even better with 3 and 4 year olds (30% and 33%, £12.94 and £6.91). He’s also a trainer in form, with 3 wins, 7 minor placings in the last 22, his RP RTF rating at 80%. It’s only win was a maiden last year, but a maiden that featured Maslak (three wins at this grade and has competed in higher classes) and it might prefer better ground, but I think it’s worth an e/w punt.

Conclusion: 1pt e/w Hannicean

The final race is the 16:50 and it’s another big field. To be honest, I’m so tired from looking at the other races, I almost can’t be arsed with this. I’ll be keeping my punting to the minimum as it seems there’s a few who could win it. I think I’ll probably just see how the market is with this one. The top weight took my eye initially as it only just sneaks into the lowest grade, but I think it’s still got a little to find and it probably needs to drop further before it can win. Brouhaha looks in good form, but isn’t drawn that nicely, it seems. As I mentioned earlier though, my opinion on that could change depending on how the earlier races are run. That said, it does seem to struggle to get in front, with a whole host of second and third places and at the price, it’s unlikely to be a good e/w bet. Sarah Park looks the e/w play here, second on seasonal reappearance at a higher grade and may have found the race to lose the maiden tag. The trainer shows a £22.88 level profit here over the past 5 years and a £21 profit with three year olds. There are plenty of stats that go against the selection, but at the forecast price is a difficult to call race, I’m happy with a small e/w punt.

Conclusion: 0.5pts e/w Sarah Park

Had a single bet today, was on Matt Doyle’s 3 point tip. Checked it out, looked a good thing. Had three of my own points on at 9/2, it went off 11/4 and won by 3/4 of a length. Cha-ching. Return: 16.5 pts. Overall “real” total: 38.28 pts, an all-time high. 60% strike rate this month!


Will Walsh said...

Looks like you would have done pretty well today. A couple of winners and I'm hoping you ditched Master Rooney and went for Zuzu. Was puzzled what your text meant today until i got home and read this!

PS good choice of picture-who is she?

moDtheGod said...

I did go with Zuzu, just about to post my report, uplodaing a video atm.

She's fit as fuck isn't she? Just found it online.