Friday, 10 October 2008

All Weather Fancies / Life Update

Not been betting much lately due to extreme skintness. Laura was down last few days which also blocked any betting action and contributed to my super poor state. I recently passed my CITB Health & Safety test (£17.50) which means I can apply for a CSCS card (£25) which will allow me to get on building sites to do a bit of firestopping should it come my way. My dad and my uncle just jumped off a sinking ship and landed a gig on a big site where there is a good amount of work, hopefully up until Christmas, so I’m hoping to get on there. The money is good, certainly better than fucking Job Seekers Allowance anyway. All being well, my card should be ready for my return from Dublin.

For those who haven’t heard, I decided last night that I probably couldn’t afford to go. I checked my bank balances and my credit card and did some sums and decided that I should probably leave it. I had put money aside but have been picking away at that since mid-September. I decided to sleep on it and did more sums today and then I noticed that overnight, my credit card limit had changed. Bizarrely, especially given the current economic climate and the fact that I never requested it, they have given me an extra £1,000 credit. Increasing my borrowing is a very foolish idea at present I know, but if all goes to plan work wise, it won’t be a big deal. My Dublin trip is saved!

For those who don’t make the final day of the IPO, I am definitely going to Fairyhouse. There’s an eight race card, with two Listed races, which should be awesome. Details posted on the old DUPS boards, feel free to ask questions about it there.

I hope you all got on Sheffield United at the weekend. Took Laura along, she’s more than welcome to come again after we turned in an average performance yet still managed to run out 3-0 winners with a goal of the season contender from Beattie, making the pre-match evens look massive. Especially when you consider that’s 16 wins from the last 17 matches against Bristol City at Bramall Lane. Bear that in mind next year if neither of us go up/both win promotion.

I’ve not packed in the experiment by the way, when I get some money I’m going to get stuck into it. Through being selective in my lays and being unlucky, I have managed to end up 9.67 points DOWN on the thing so far! However, had I layed every one of their selections from September 30th when I started logging the stats, I’d have made a whopping profit of 63.68 points and enjoyed just one losing day out of ten (-6.56 points on the 8th) – there’s money in this, I’m sure of it.

So then, the main reason for my post: I’ve studied a bit of form this evening out of boredom and here are my findings:

The final race of tomorrow in the UK, the 21:20 at Wolverhampton, looks a competitive affair but I’ve a little fancy for a nag at a good price. Mafaheem is currently 9.0 on Betfair and I think that’s a bit big for a four-time course and distance winner. The gelding was third here last month too and only finished a length behind Royal Challenge who also runs today, but will be worse off in the weights this time out. In that race, the selection stayed on well despite not having the clearest of runs and was subject to a late jockey change. I felt watching the race that the jock could have gone a bit later, I wonder if the late change was relevant there? The selection likes to come from off the pace so will need a little luck in running, but the presence of Mr Wolf will ensure a true pace, which should set things up nicely and in Dane O’Neill, we have an experienced jockey in a bit of form. Mafaheem is on a mark of just 3lbs higher than the last win here and has won at this distance on turf off a mark 8lbs higher than today’s. Competitive as this race is, 8/1 is just too big.

As I haven’t played the A-Z game in longer than I can remember, I’ll make this my first stab at the letter “M” too.

My other fancy is also on the all weather and at a good price. War Of The Roses runs in the 15:55 at Lingfield and is 6.8 at Betfair just now. The favourite seems to me to have been priced on potential rather than any actual ability, having run just once, on the turf in a pretty weak race. The AW can be unpredictable and I’d much rather follow one with proven ability to act on the surface, rather than guesswork. The selection has an impressive AW record, winning 6 from 18 starts (as well as four seconds); four of those and all of the second places have come at this track. Winning over C&D last month off a mark of 75, the bay gelding is up just 2lbs for that win. Apache Fort beat the selection here in April on the same terms weight-wise, but had a clearer run and War Of The Roses can reverse that neck victory today.

15:55 Lingfield
War Of The Roses
1 pt win

21:20 Wolverhampton
1 pt win

1 comment:

moDtheGod said...

Mafaheem was plum last! Not sure what went wrong, judging by how far it was beaten, I'd suggest a problem. War Of The Roses ran it's race but came 2nd to a nag carrying a stone less. Top weight just a bit too much to ask. Still, happy with the min stakes value bets.

Layed almost every single one of's tips today (avoided those that clashed with my own bets) and came out with 9.3 profits. So profit since I started this experiment is -0.37 points :D

Had I layed every tip since I started caring at SP, I'd be 75.34 points up.

Even Mark's joining in the fun now :D