Wednesday, 1 October 2008 - Favourite Backing Filth

Well hit back in good style today. I looked at the card and saw with mixed emotions that they had picked 6 very short priced favourites. Now, I don’t mind laying a horse at odds on in a big field of unexposed horses because my liability is low and the prices aren’t true prices, I’m on the right side of the value. But it’s still a concern that most of them are going to go in, which is what has happened today.

To make it worse, my timing has been horrendous. I laid Montaff for example at 1.7, thinking noone would fancy smashing into it at such a short price, but it still went off around 1.4 on Betdaq. Otaared eased out so I got on at 2.7, only to watch it shrink right up again to around 2.3.

On top of that, I have been considering some set in stone rules to impose on this experiment, including not laying horses bigger than a set price, to protect my small bankroll. However, I haven’t implemented any yet. I tried to lay Cool Running at around 5.0, but it drifted right out to 9.0ish and I thought “fuck that, a drifter like that probably won’t win but if it does, that will hurt a bit” so I left it. But then I thought “well the price will come down in running and there are a couple of horses with chances, so why not?” and laid it off not long after the off at 6.4. It somehow ended up winning, which hurt a bit. I won’t be doing that again.

So I’m a bit down today, but I still have every faith in how terrible are. All they’ve done today is pick ridiculously short priced horses at terrible value. An example being Damini, which went off around evens, the nearest rival being 11-2 (and that had shortened right up just before the off, I saw it closer to 7/1) and Damini didn’t even place. Montaff was the best example of this, SP 2/5 and the closest rival priced 7/1. Even Scott could have predicted that outcome and I’m more than happy to risk next to nothing, in case of a shock. Cool Running was my own mistake, which I will learn from.

Here’s my rules for the rest of this experiment:

If the price is bigger than 6.0, I’m not laying it.
I’m only laying Monday – Friday.
I’m not laying at shorter than 1.66 unless there’s a rival horse priced at 4.0 or under, a field of 16 or more or the race is over obstacles.
No laying in-running at all. If I don’t get the bet placed, leave it.

Roundup of today’s favourite backing filth:

14:10 Newcastle – Yorksters Girl @ 1.87 – 1st (-0.87pts)
15:10 Newcastle – Prime Mood @ 2.68 – 1st (-1.68pts)
15:45 Newcastle – Montaff @ 1.7 – 1st (-0.7 pts)
15:55 Nottingham – Damini @ 2.18 – 5th (+1pt)
16:05 Salisbury – Qalahari @ 4.9 – 2nd (+1pt)
16:25 Nottingham – Otaared @ 2.7 - 1st (-1.7pts)
16:30 Tralee – Cool Running @ 6.4 – 1st (-5.4pts)
18:05 Tralee – East Beach @ 5.5 – 2nd (+1pt)
19:20 Kempton – Stevie Junior @ 1.73 – 1st (-0.73pts)

I also took it upon myself to lay their Kempton picks, owing to the unpredictable nature of the AW (new rules apply):

18:20 Kempton – Lindby. SP 8/1. No bet. 7th.
18:50 Kempton – Charlie Smirke @ 2.98 – 3rd (+1pt)
19:20 Kempton – See above
19:50 Kempton – Game Lady. Was 7.2 on exchanges. No bet. 4th.
20:20 Kempton – Brexca @ 5.2 – 4th (+1pt)
20:50 Kempton – Falcativ @ 2.98 – 1st (-1.98pts)
21:20 Kempton – Deira Dubai. Was 8.2 on exchanges. No bet. 10th.

Winners: -13.06pts
Losers: +5pts
Profit: -8.06pts
Overall Profit: -2.55

Had I laid every one of their tips today at SP I’d have made 7.62 points profit (27 losing horses for 27 points profit; 10 winners for 19.37 points loss). Had I laid every one of their tips since I started, that would be profit of 24.88 points.

In other news, my first bet of the month (this experiment apart of course) was Tous Les Deux in the 19:50 at Kempton; 1pt win @ 5.5; Return 5.5pts.

I’m due a stats round-up for September but I’ll hold off, because it’s turning into my own personal blog again. Don’t you lot bet anymore? What’s been happening at DUPS? Noone got any crazy ideas for Dublin?

Scoop Troop Profits: 62.08 points ( experiment excluded)

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