Tuesday, 24 March 2009

Early Grand National Bets

Dom will like this as I've gone for my selections on well known trends.
I pulled this off another forum but there are various other similar threads to back this up. If you plug in the figures I come out with 3 horses to back

Character Building - 14/1 @ Stan James
Rambling Minster -14/1 @ Coral
Brooklyn Brownie 50/1@ Betfair

I have backed all 3 already and expect the prices of all to come down by the day and think I have a real chance of getting a winner here.I dont intend on backing anything else.


Again well known and very logical – must have won a chase over at least 3 miles. Even further is preferable. 100% of winners in last 20 years.

Number of runs in season

Must have had between 4 and 6 runs in the current season. Not so good if you go back 20 years with a 2, a 7 and 2 8s in there, but nothing with 0 or 1 run (Mely Moss came close). Stands to a reason that we want a horse that is race fit, but....

Number of wins in season

Must not have won more than once in the current season. We want a horse that is fit, but has not had too hard a season (or had its handicap mark ruined). Six of the last ten winners had not won a race in their winning season. But having said that....

Recent Form

OK, this is slightly tenuous, since not all 3rd places finishes are of equal merit. On the bare stats however, every winner in the last 20 years had managed at least one 3rd place finish in their last 3 outings. Most of course had managed considerably better than that. I think the main merit of this trend is that it enables one to throw out horses that might look well handicapped on old form but have no kind of recent form at all.

Days since last run

Must have run between 20 and 50 days prior to the race. OK, there is probably a bit of backfitting to this trend, but only Rough Quest (16 days) has defied it in the last 20 years. The highest number is actually 49 but I rounded it up. Only 3 had a gap of greater than 36 days before the race.

Previous Grand National runs

Must not have finished unplaced or pulled up in a previous renewal of the race. Only Amberleigh House has finished beaten (3rd) and gone on to win. 5 others in the last 20 years have failed to complete in a variety of manners (B,F,U) including Royal Athlete in the void race. But if you weren’t good enough to win before, it is unlikely to be good enough to win now (I know Red Marauder was out the back when he fell, but the stat stands)

OK, that covers the trends that have been 100% accurate in the last 10 years. Now we come on to the 80% and 90% trends, plus some more nefarious trends that are 100% but (in my opinion) not so important.


Must carry under 11-0 (90%). Unlike some, I am not going to move the weight up to 11-1 to account for Hedgehunter’s win. Personally I still believe there are sound reasons why horses will struggle to carry a big weight and one blip does not change the fundamental argument. The distribution of weights carried is massively in favour of horses carrying low weights.

Field Size

Must have won a chase with a field of over 12 runners (90%). Bindaree had only beaten 7 and Lord Gyllene only 10 (that was more than 10 years ago). Stands to reason that you want a horse that can handle the hurly-burly of a big field.

Value of win

Must have won a race worth at least GBP 17,000 (sorry, no pound sign on keyboard). All of the last 10 winners have achieved this. However, it was failure to meet this trend that caused me to rule McKelvey out of my final 4 2 years ago thereby costing me the tricast; I therefore do not like the trend and I am demoting it. In all seriousness, there is obviously validity it to it, it just feels a bit secondary to the weight / age / form stats.

Must not be French bred


moDtheGod said...

I do love my trends and I'm annoyed that you've got here first - I've only just got back from Dundee and will be looking to write something tonight and tomorrow. I'll obviously still be looking at trends so I'll try not to duplicate too much of what you've said, but it'll be interesting to see if we come up with the same selections.

I can't make the Perth festival, annoyingly. I thought I might try to come up in May but it's going to clash with the Play-Offs. Expect to hear from me in a couple of months about a racing day out somewhere in Scotland.

moDtheGod said...

Will finalise the article later in the week, but at this stage I'm going to nibble at Rambling Minster (THE stats pick) and Brooklyn Brownie too. Kilbeggan Blade looks good to me and it's tempting to nibble at Butlers Cabin, because you just know it won't start that price and it can probably be layed off.