GG.com are shit tipsters

Okay, so Mark and I were chatting last night about how poor GG.com seem to be at tipping horses. Their website is pretty good, I visit quite a lot for information, at least as much as ATR or the RP, but in just over a year of using them I can’t remember them having too many successes with their tips.

We jokingly came to the conclusion that we should lay their “Top Tips” selections and make money. I went away and thought about it and decided to start an experiment, doing exactly that. I haven’t drawn up any hard and fast rules yet, but I thought it would make sense not to oppose their bet of the day, as that’s the one they’re likely to work hardest at and opposing the longshot seems silly, as you’d be risking a big payout on a horse they have specifically sought out to frank the form. The double, treble and Lucky 15 selections seemed like fair game however, so I’d lay each to win 1 point and see what happens.

So having gone to bed at beyond 5 a.m. this morning, I decided I was going to need to set my alarm to make sure I’d have lots of time to get a bath, a cup of tea, food etc before the laying commenced. Good plan, but it seems I just turned my alarm off in my sleep and woke up at 14:35, 5 minutes before their first tip ran. Knowing I couldn’t get to the PC, have it fire up, log into Betdaq etc in time, I left it and went for my bath. I came back to see that Baariq had gone in at 2/1, lucky me.

When I did eventually get some bets on, it couldn’t have gone much better. Furious Belle in the 15:10 was a disappointing 7th, Minus Fifteen ten minutes later finished 3rd, the much fancied Garrai Ard at Tralee could only come third, Urban Warrior in the 16:30 at Sedgefield was yet another 3rd, Reclamation (who I nearly backed when looking at the card last night) disappointed in 4th, Sonnyanjoe was 5th at Tralee and Ebashan was 2nd by three parts of a length.

The only winner they had (that I managed to lay) was Golden Feather in the 17:00 at Sedgefield. Frustratingly, when I came to lay it originally it was 1.68 but I’d emptied my account by laying all the earlier ones, so I had to wait for a few to lose before I could proceed. When I freed up some funds, the price had walked to 2.2+. I decided to wait to see if it would come in but it kept walking. I managed to lay at 2.49 and it went in by 1.5 lengths. The official SP was 11/8 which is a bit lame but still, no major damage done, my liability only being 1.49 points.

GG.com’s nap today was Kingsholm, which you can read about below. I did say that I wouldn’t include the best bet in my laying experiment unless there were some extreme circumstances, like it being a 26 runner field or something, so although I did lay it (heavily) and scoop, I won’t include it in the figures for the experiment.

Winners: -1.49pts
Losers: +7pts
Profit: +5.51pts

It's worth noting that had I got the first one on, my profit would still have been +3.51 points. I also haven't decided whether to include this in my overall Scoop Troop profits/losses yet, so for now I'll keep it apart.

Full details:

15:10 Warwick – Furious Belle @ 2.34 – 7th (+1pt)
15:20 Southwell – Minus Fifteen @ 5.4 - 3rd (+1pt)
16:25 Tralee – Garrai Ard @ 2.76 – 3rd (+1pt)
16:30 Sedgefield – Urban Warrior @ 3.8 – 3rd (+1pt)
16:50 Southwell – Reclamation @ 4.8 – 4th (+1pt)
16:55 Tralee – Sonnyanjoe @ 5.6 4th (+1pt)
17:00 Sedgefield – Golden Feather @ 2.49 – 1st (-1.49pts)
17:15 Curragh – Ebashan @ 2.68 – 2nd (+1pt)

Will report further findings tomorrow and I’m going to look into laying every single one of their picks further down the line, when I am richer! Had I layed every GG.com tip today, I’d have won 29 times (+29 points) and lost 6 times, for a loss of 11.74 points, overall profit of 17.26 points.

Sell! Sell! Sell!

Not done much gambling of late, but I’ve spotted something I like for tomorrow. GG.com have made Kingsholm their nap in the 17:10 at Warwick. I wouldn’t have even noticed this race if the notoriously bad tipping section of their otherwise useful website hadn’t alerted me to it, but I can tell you, hopefully not in a William Walsh sty-lee, that this horse will under no circumstances win this race.

Let’s look at the evidence[/Lloyd Grossman]

I saw this horse run at Beverley last week. It did well, don’t get me wrong. The RP had tentatively picked King Of Connacht in that race, but the horse was withdrawn; although I’m not certain why, I am assuming it was due to the soft ground, which will not be an issue on tomorrow’s forecast Good to Firm (this horse’s best form is on Good or better ground). King Of Connacht has a better jockey on board it tomorrow, than it would have last week had it run. Three days after that win for Kingsholm at Beverley, Jamie Spencer fired the chestnut gelding in again at Wolverhampton on the Fibresand under a 6lb penalty, thus incurring a further 6lb forfeit for tomorrow’s 16 strong field, over a furlong further than the horse has ever won at before.

I’m not totally convinced that King Of Connacht is the selection, as I’ve seen Astrolibra do well in better company (after telling Scott that it wouldn’t win, I believe Scott was on it and it won by a head IIRC) and these amateur races really can be like the donkey derby, but there is no way for me, that Kingsholm is winning this race and I have to lay it. It will be cream crackered and carrying nearly a stone too much! Although I can’t say I noticed it, the RP reports that the horse started poorly at Beverley, which is another slight positive for layers.

Note of caution: The Racing Post and GG.com both have it as a nap (not sure why RP’s Spotlight have decided to reverse in light of the glaring evidence you’ve just read) so it’s maybe still a risky call and right now on Betfair, Kingsholm is priced 3.9 with the nearest rival at 8.8, but I don’t care, I’m feeling brave.

Let’s review: this 16 strong race will be Kingsholm’s third in seven days, carrying 12lbs more than it ought to, whilst seven days ago, when Kingsholm was much better off in the weights, the RP was siding with an opponent who carried an inferior pilot at the time. If the horse is to win, it's going to have to win at a slightly longer trip than it's ever won at before.

I will wait until closer to the off time. RP napped favourites running late in the day are usually steamed into and I may be able to reduce my liability.

Lay Kingsholm
4pts (lay risk 11.6pts assuming I take 3.9)

Perth Review 25th September

Perth staged its final meeting of its centenary year today and I was in attendance at the course for the fourth time this season. I was hoping for better fortune than I had experienced at Ayr on Saturday where I managed to avoid a single winner in an eight race card. I did intend to blog that meeting but frankly given my lack of success it was painful to recall the meeting race by race. All I will say about Ayr is that is a great course for a big meeting and there was also plenty of non equine talent on show. I would definitely love to take a trip there again for the Scottish National or the Gold Cup meeting again next September.

Anyway back to Perth and I arrived confident of finding at least 1 or 2 winners as this was a jumps race meet- my bread and butter. Before I set off I logged onto Sporting Index and decided at 41lengths given the going and fact there were 3 novices and a bumper. The first race at 2.20 looked tricky, a14 runner novice hurdle with a few decent animals. The form was hard to read and Mhilu and Chord were well backed at the head of the market. I looked further down the betting though and plumped for Noble Alan(friendless in the betting-3/1 morning to 6/1 on course) who had decent form last winner as was trained by the powerful Richards stable. Noble Alan was settled midfield and came through strongly to win the race by 6 lengths and quickly erased my painful Ayr memories. This horse heads to Cheltenham next month and I wouldn’t put anyone off as the trainer indicated he won today despite needing the run.

This put me in good spirits ahead of the 2nd race where I had a big fancy foir the Twiston Davies runner Crescent Island. He had a good record in the race and had used this a platform for no less than Fundamentalist. It was 6/4 on Betfair before I left so I was surprised to see Evens on course when betting opened. This didn’t deter me though and I took 11/10 which was the best I could see. He jumped well in the early stages and as they set out on the final circuit I was pleased. That was until the silly animal decided he had done enough for the day and instead of going out for another circuit decided to stop and head back to the paddock. Cue the sinking feeling. I was saved somewhat though when the Philip Hobbs trained Mister Gloss romped home by 23 lengths- a great result for the spread.

Onto the 3rd race where my second strongest fancy of the day Kealshore Lad lined up. I hoped to claw back the previous losses on this son of Tiraaz and took the early 6/4 which was a wise move as the SP returned 5/4. My enthusiasm for this horse was heightened by the foxy stable girl (see pic) leading him around the paddock. Unfortunately Kealshore Lad was one paced and could only plug on for third behind 9length winner Valerius for the Gordon Elliot stable.

So it was back to the drawing board for the next race which was an open 2mile handicap chase. I had no strong fancy but thought Top Dressing could go well at 4/1. He was never really travelling under Denis O’Regan and plugged on behind Nigel Twiston Davies Asudo, that one returning from a 600 day absence over a trip which for my money looked too short. He could be one to follow this winner especially over further.

So four races down and the win on Noble Alan was a distant memory. A 2 mile handicap hurdle was probably not the best of races to get me out of trouble but the more I looked at the form the more I became drawn to the Gordon Elliot trained Baguenaud, with Paul Carberry looking an intriguing jockey booking. 4/1 looked a fair price given Gordon Elliots course record so I stuck of my rapidly decreasing readies on that one. Carberry settled the 5yo in midfield and brought him to challenge entering the straight where he quickened on nicely to win by a couple of lengths from the course loving Regents Secret in second. This was a get out of jail free card for me as I had not intended to back this one when I had studied the morning form.

I went into the sixth race back in high spirits but it looked tricky. Twiston Davies had a horse with poor form but all his horses at Perth merit respect so I found it hard to weigh up particularly given the restricted 3/1 price. Equally Gordon Elliot’s Misterinbetween had been backed from early prices of 10/1 into 7/2 on course but its form was dire. I decided to go for Laureldean Melody as the price of 11/2 looked big and I am a big fan of her sire Accordion. She ran well but went down by a decreasing ¾ lengths to the Twiston Davies Flemish Invader.

So one race left and it was an intriguing bumper. The Twiston Davies runner Strong Rebel had been well talked up all afternoon and the enthusiastic - Yes No Wait Sorries - the horses owners were all in attendance. This one opened at 11/10 which for me was a no bet on an unraced bumper runner. He had previously won an Irish point to point but the form of those races is impossible to weight up. Gordon Elliot had the second favourite at 3/1 but this didn’t appeal to me at the price and I decided that at 8/1 Moscow Catch, an unraced son of Moscow Society for the Malcom Jefferson yard was worth a bet. I went to the paddock (and not to view the sexy stable girls this time) and had a look and was hugely impressed by Moscow so decided to have a decent sized bet on him to win at 8/1. I was soon regretting this as he dumped his rider down at the start, although fortunately the horse did not bolt. As the race unfolded Strong Rebel began to be pushed along as Moscow Catch made headway to try to catch the strong travelling Tchang Goon. That one and Strong Rebel began to pull away from Moscow Catch but as the lime approached Moscow made great ground and to my delight and the favourite backers horror looked like he got up. The anxious wait for the result went and I waited around 2 minutes to find out that Strong Rebel had held on. I’ve had a few low moments in racing but that feeling went the photo was called is up there with the best of them

As for the distances I think they ended up at around 49 which means a small profit for me but in so many ways it could have been so much better. I had a great day at Perth though and can’t wait for the Festival next April where I expect to see you all there.

Beverley Bets

Okay, another impromptu trip racing and it’s Beverley again. I’m actually going to get up this time, honest.

So as I said last time, Beverley’s known for a big draw bias, especially over 5f – high numbers are good. The forecast going is Good to Soft, good in places and it seems like it’s going to be dry overnight, so hopefully that’ll stay about the same.

The opening race is a 5f novices affair. As you know, I dislike these types of races but I do try to punt on every race when I attend a meeting and the immediate appeal lies with Blades Princess. Come on, with a name like that I HAVE to back her. Currently at 3.85 on Betfair she makes better appeal than the odds on favourite, because as good as Amour Propre looks on paper, the selection has already acted on the forecast ground and is in receipt of 10lbs. She also finds herself drawn in stall 7 (of 7, Amour Propre drawn 3) which is nice to know, especially over 5f. On top of that, the stable won this race last time out, so she should be well prepared.

Verdict: always seems worth opposing odds-on types in these sorts of races, especially with all the positives listed. 1 point win Blades Princess

The next race (14:30) is also a 5f sprint, three of the entrants in this I saw up close and personal at Doncaster last weekend in the Ladbrokes Portland (which provided me with my second winner of the day in Hogmaneigh; I was two from two at that point at 5/1 and 9/1 and suddenly my friends were taking my analysis a little more seriously…). Oldjoesaid seems the obvious pick as this is nowhere near the class of the Portland and that was the horse that finished highest (4th) of the three. Although it didn’t beat either by much, it was carrying the most weight and tomorrow they’ll all be carrying the same. With form seemingly confirmed there, the only other to consider is Hoh Mike, who does most of his racing in Group Company. Recently dropped in grade, he frustrated with a very poor break and a disappointing run and followed up with another shocker when moved back up to Listed company. His last run was more encouraging, but he could only finish second. One to be wary of I think and I’ll stick with the Portland 4th.

Verdict: competitive but Oldjoesaid should win. Strike Up The Band and Fullandby have better draws so it’ll be interesting; for that reason it’s the minimum 1 point bet.

The 15:00 is a 12 furlong seller and all the talk is about Pondapie. I wouldn’t touch this horse with Scott’s money though, 2/1 clear favourite as I type, in a field of 12, represents zero value. This horse has been beaten 52 and 22 lengths over this trip in just a grade higher and off a similar mark, whilst his last two outings have been at this grade but a shade shorter and have seen him beaten 75 lengths and 1.75 lengths in a really modest maiden. The best performance of those four was on good ground, two of the shockers were on softer ground. Best to steer clear of this one I think, especially at the price. The best value looks to be either Sorrento Moon or Jane of Arc. The former ran on strongly on similar ground to win last time over two furlongs fewer and should stay on pedigree, whilst the latter returns to a trip which has seen her produce her best form. I suspect she may like the ground a little better and may need to drop a little further in the ratings before she lands a race like this and so I’ll be placing the minimum e/w bet on Sorrento Moon.

Verdict: more competitive than you’d think looking at the market (in my opinion) and there’s value to be had if you can be bothered looking. Sorrento Moon at 0.5 pts e/w is the way I’ll be going.

Another really competitive affair in the 15:30, over 7 and a half furlongs. There are just so many with chances, I don’t even know where to start. I suppose Handsome Falcon is the most obvious starting point, winning at Ayr in better company and narrowly losing out over C&D the time before whilst carrying tonnes, it seems a big price at 8.2 as I type. Especially as Freddie Tylicki is on board, taking off a useful 5lbs (good god, is he down to 5lbs already? The kid is GOOD). When it lost out by a neck to Mr Toshiwonka, there was a similar gap in the weights to tomorrow, so that 5lbs looks very handy indeed. Jonny Lester’s Hair also ran that day and came third, but I saw him at Catterick not long after and he seemed a tricky ride. Pulled a bit keenly if memory serves. One of interest to me is West End Lad who seems to have been tried at a variety of trips but does his best work at 8 furlongs and these stats are impressive: 2 wins and 2 seconds from 7 runs over 8f; 1 win from 1 (by 6 lengths) over Beverley’s 7.5 furlongs - that was off a mark of 62 (goes off 63 tomorrow and carries a featherweight); 1 win from 2 runs on Good to Soft ground, the defeat coming on the gelding’s second ever start, the win coming just this summer.

Verdict: impossibly trappy race, seems value in West End Lad at 13.5 as I type as well as Handsome Falcon (8.2 at time of writing) but I’m plumping for the former, 0.5 pts e/w)

The 16:00 is over the same distance but is for n00b nags and I’m going to take a chance. I hate these races, as per usual, the experts all look at the miniscule scraps of form and those horses are at tiny prices. I wish I knew more about pedigrees and breeding, because there must be money to be made in these types of races. Anyway, Trumpstoo is priced at 15.0 on Betfair just now and Richard Fahey has a good record at Beverley: in the last 5 seasons at the track, horses have won 49 out of 281 races at a very respectable 17% strike rate and a £1 level stakes profit of £113.38 – impressive. His 2 year olds at the course, in the same period of time, have won 14% of races, for £14.38 level stakes. This season, his n00b nags at the track have won 3/9 races. From my limited knowledhe, his pedigree looks pretty decent too. I despise these races, but those numbers are enough for me in a race where you really do have to simply guess the winner.

Verdict: 0.5 points e/w on Trumpstoo, while everyone else is eyeing up Hunterview and Kudu Country

The penultimate race is a 14 runner affair, contested over a mile. On paper, it is yet another really tricky race. The first name that jumps out is Dancing Maite, because it was 4th behind a few of those in today’s 15:30 race and I was on e/w at a decent price on my visit Catterick. I won’t be backing it today though, with no evidence of ability on softer ground and a step up in trip which on pedigree, doesn’t appear like it will suit. I think I’ll watch the market on this one, because I hate backing favourites in such big fields but it seems that the favourite has the best form and the best draw. Thing is though, I reckon this trip could be too short. I will watch the market and likely choose from Shaloo Diamond to win or Metal madness, possibly at an e/w price.

Verdict: going to watch the market. Shaloo Diamond has good form but may need a stiffer trip; Metal Madness may be the value if I oppose

The last race is going to be carnage. 16 runners, amateur riders and I haven’t a clue, frankly. I might just go minimum stakes on Faraday because Nina Carberry is a great jockey and she’s clearly the standout pilot in the field. I don’t think that’s a bad strategy, actually. I’d normally follow the market but the RP have gone with the favourite and I can imagine punters steaming into it, with it being the last race of the meeting (in fact, it’s the third last race of the day).

Verdict: might as well ring Kenny up and ask him to pick a number, he’s good at fluking winners. Will either back the Carberry ride or back a market mover. 0.5 pts e/w of course.

Champions League Tonight etc

Reinvesting some of yesterday's profits in small bets on Arsenal (1/1) and Bayern Munich (5/6). Both prices are Ladbrokes. Just for interests sake.

Just received a text from fellow Scoop Trooper Will Walsh who I'm sure won't mind be relaying it here:

"Are Zenit not a cracking bet at 4/1 to beat Juventus tonight? Juventus are nothing special and Roma proved how pish the Italian league is last night."

I definately think there is some value in laying Juve tonight so might get involved.

Early bet for Ryder Cup: Henrik Stenson Top Points Scorer 16/1.

My greyhound betting in my lunch breaks at work has been going really well and thinking of devoting some time this weekend to picking out a few good bets.

GL

Scott

Burnley v. Blackpool

It won't make us rich but Burnley are even money pretty much everywhere and are winning this fo sho.

This deserves more love.....

Someone pointed this out on the blonde forum, it is tremendous banter and had me bolling a fair amount...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3159/2807838577_83cbed0126_o.jpg?t=1053139

i'm back! been offline for sometime now and recently made a return after fixing my pc and laptop up.



Since i cashed out of Full Tilt since the tables started to dry out for me I've made a wee return to poker stars. Had a few ups and downs at the sit n goes but going semi alright with the bankroll there.

MTT status on PS is going pretty good at the moment and i'm thinking of regularily taking part in large sunday tournaments starting in two weeks.

This coming sunday (tomorrow) a local pub is hosting a £50 4k GTD tournament which I won a sat for a few months ago at the same venue. The competition is mainly guys that get wasted while playing at the venue on wednesdays with maybe around 2-3 actual decent players. The tournament is a deepstack Freezeout with a 30 min blind clock. I'm expecting a decent cash from this since alot of the players have very little experience in this format of game.

My live game schedule will hopefully fill up somewhat more with my move to bristol next week. Heading south of the border to england to study some more geeky stuff and heard many good things about the casino and possible pools of student players in the area. Already making up plans for organising regular student games and maybe even a North/South tournament. I'll keep you posted of any developements.

All in all i've been good, hows everyone else?! Is aaron dead yet?

St Leger Preview

The St Leger. Let’s do this shit. There will be no fucking missed trains or alarm calls on Saturday let me tell you, as I and some old schoolmates who I haven’t seen in years embark upon the pilgrimage to sunny Doncaster, for the season’s final classic. What a feast of racing it promises to be, with an eight race card featuring a couple of Group 2s, the Group 1 Ladbrokes Sprint Cup and of course, the St Leger. Let’s hope the weather will be pleasant and that the forecast soft ground is a little better for racing’s sake.

As ever, let’s get the basics out of the way first. The race is run over a mile, six furlongs and 132 yards and Doncaster is a left handed, galloping track with a slight bias towards the higher numbered stalls, on the straight course. That shouldn’t really be relevant in a race of this distance anyway and as if to confirm that, from the last twenty races at least, there’s been no bias with winners coming from every stall but number four, no more than three times.

The favourites have a very good record in this race, in the last twenty years the favourite has triumphed 13 times, with four second places. In that time there have only really been two surprises, the 4/7 favourite being turned over in 1988 and Moonax winning in 1994 by 1 and ¾ lengths at a price of 40/1, with the favourite beaten at least 35 lengths. I was on Moonax, actually. Made a fortune.

It will probably bite me in the arse to do this, when Maidstone Mixture romps home at 1000/1 (William Hill) but I think I can safely rule out Enroller, Hindu Kush, Maidstone Mixture, Bashkirov and Warringah based on the SP trends alone. The second biggest price after the 40/1 shot was 7/1 (last twenty years only) and the average SP of the last ten winners is just 3.94, or just short of 3/1. Fuck it, let’s get rid of Whistledownwind too, he’s not won since moving to Jeremy Noseda anyway and was beaten by Top Lock last time out. He will like the ground, assuming it is soft, but he has something to find. Washington Irving can also go in the bin, because he’s run a lot on soft ground and hasn’t really done that much, including an awful Irish Derby; no doubt he’s just going to take one for the O’Brien team and help ensure a true pace is set.

Top Lock has a good piece of form from Hamburg in July and his connections have been preparing him specifically for this race. They reckon a strongly run 1m 6f will suit him and he’s sure to get that at Doncaster, but on pedigree I just can’t see him staying. There’s sufficient doubt in my mind to discount him.

Alessandro Volta (pictured, orange & blue) seems to have shortened up a few points overnight, I’m not sure what that’s all about. I think he’s probably a bit outclassed in this field and has been held by Doctor Fremantle before and let’s not forget that AWFUL effort in the Irish Derby where it veered left a LOT. Not even super Johnny Murtagh could do anything about that. I’m only bitter because I had been talking Tartan Bearer up for a long time and the interference probably cost my pick the race, but I just can’t see the horse being good enough.

Unsung Heroine is an interesting one. No filly has won the St Leger since 1992, when User Friendly got home first, but this one is very unexposed having run just twice (winning both, but in lower company and against the same sex) and is open to some improvement, which she would need if she would win this race, but at 13/1 just now, it could be worth a small e/w punt. Will be really interesting to see how she fares.

The other filly in the race is Look Here and she would be my pick if she’d had a smoother buildup to the race. She missed the Yorkshire Oaks with an injury but seems to be back to full fitness, reportedly impressing with a good workout last weekend. It’s a shame that Seb Sanders will not ride her, due to his broken leg, as he gave a good performance last time out on the way to winning the Epsom Oaks when they had some very good fillies a long way behind them. Although as I said before, no filly has won since 1992, the last five Oaks winners to have run in the St Leger have finished either first or second. As I say though, the preparation for the race hasn’t been ideal and with Sanders out too, I think there’s better value elsewhere, though I do give her a very good chance.

Frozen Fire (right) is the favourite and with Murtagh in the saddle and the O’Brien camp in generally awesome form, it probably does just about deserve to head the market. I have to say I was initially surprised as this time last year he wasn’t very impressive in the Racing Post Trophy, he wasn’t much better in the Derby and let’s be brutally honest, he only won the Irish Derby because he avoided the Alessandro Volta induced carnage. As nicely as he stayed on, Tartan Bearer (who was bumped earlier in the race too) was completely sandwiched and didn’t fancy it after that and Curtain Call was also totally interfered with. That said, his time in that race compares favourably and is actually better than, for example, that of High Chapparal in 2002 on the same ground. The trends suggest the favourite has a very strong chance.

That’s everything dealt with aside from the Sir Michael Stoute entries. It’s well documented that he’s never trained a winner of the St Leger and not very long ago he looked to have a strong shout with Patkai, Tartan Bearer, Doctor Fremantle and Conduit. Patkai and Tartan Bearer won’t take their chances, but he still has a pretty strong hand. “There is no way Conduit can possibly win” claims our very own Will Walsh, which I will be quoting quite a lot should the son of Dalakhani do the business, but with Frankie Dettori on board, a winner of this race in 2005 and 2006, and a recent win in a good St Leger trial, who knows what could happen? To be fair to the Walsh, I think he’s right. Conduit made very heavy weather of that trial and the ground was no excuse. The pedigree doesn’t offer anything to persuade me that he’ll even get the trip, whilst connections are concerned about the soft ground and Ryan Moore chose Doctor Fremantle over this one.

Doctor Fremantle (below) on the other hand has to be real value at the current 7/1, already boosted by Moore, there are plenty of other positives. Last year’s St Leger winner Lucarno finished fourth in the Derby, as did Doctor Fremantle. The pedigree is there, by Saddler’s Wells out of Summer Breeze, who has produced two winners and two placers (from six) over this distance and she herself is out of Rainbow Quest, whose progeny have a good record at these sorts of trips. The ground shouldn’t be an issue either. He was perhaps disappointing last time out, but if he gets a better start this time, he should be up there.

My tentative 1-2-3: Doctor Fremantle (7/1 generally) – Look Here (9/2 Blue Square) - Frozen Fire (9/4 generally)

Verdict: 1.5 points e/w Doctor Fremantle

So that’s my thoughts on the matter. Even if I am totally wide of the mark, I’m quite certain that I am going to have a great time, going to be very drunk and I won’t even mind that United are going to lose to Derby. One thing’s for certain, we are always terrible away from home when on Sky and Rob Hulse is nailed on to score. I’m off to see what odds I can get on him.

Exchange users

Alright n00bs? For those of you that like to punt, Betdaq have cut their commission to just 2% until the end of this year. I can't believe I've only just discovered this. If you email notaxes@betdaq.com with your account details, they'll move you to the cheapo rate. I'd previously been using Betmate, which is exactly the same as Betdaq anyway, only with 3% commission rates.

Pile in!

Beverley

Another impromptu trip to the nags for me in the morning. I seem to cut it more and more fine, deciding at 0:45 to go this time. My options are Leicester (just under an hour away on the train) or Beverley (anything from 90 minutes to three hours depending on connections) but the Leicester card looks shit, with a few 4 runner races and a couple of massive fields. I’ll take my chances in Yorkshire, I reckon I can do it in just under two hours so no bother.

Beverley is one of the most biased tracks in Britain. It may even be the most biased. I will be looking at the high numbers for sure tomorrow, as everything I’ve read suggests that’s the way to go, but it’ll be interesting to see how much of that holds true given the horrendous rain we’ve had in these parts and the forecast going, which is heavy. It seems that the course is most biased over five furlongs which is nice, as we’ve got two of these on the card and both are handicaps (obviously in a handicap, all the nags are supposed to be weighted so that they all have an equal chance – if this is true, than the bias should be at it’s most noticeable)

The first of these 5f handicaps, the 14:00 race, is a mammoth 17 runner and so finding the winner will be tough. Whozart makes immediate appeal drawn in the highest stall of all and the market reflects that, showing as the early 9/2 favourite, but I need a bigger price than that in this sort of field. Dubai To Barnsley has a fantastic name and won here not long ago, on soft ground but absolutely everything went his way that day, so I’ll probably stay away. Myriola was second by a neck in that race and seemed to like the ground too, but takes an identical hike in weights to the winner and is poorly drawn, no reason to believe they will reverse form. I’d like the look of Wicked Wilma at the price if she only liked the ground, but I suspect she wants it better than tomorrow. I’d normally leave this well alone, but as I’m going I have to punt. I thought Head To Head looked a bit overpriced at 23 and I thought about it, because I’d look a genius if it came in, but I’m going to go for the minimum e/w bet on Monte Major. Much better on the all weather, but he has placed a few times at a better grade with cut in the ground and this race isn’t going to take a lot of winning. A shade over 7/1 at the minute and worth a try.

Monte Major: 0.5 points e/w. Could be persuaded by a market move for Mormeatmic

The second of the 5f handicaps is at 16:30 and looks just as tricky. Lake Chini is favourite at 3.75 overnight. It has the best draw (second highest, I read somewhere that the second highest drawn wins slightly more than the highest of all) and has performed at the track. It last ran two days ago but this doesn’t concern me – on August 22nd last year he ran second by a half length (to Soto actually, who runs today) but two days later followed it up by running second (at Beverley) to Making Music, losing by just half a length, form that was backed up the following month, where the gelding again ran second to Making Music, this time losing by just a neck. Soto is the RP’s pick but he hasn’t won at 5f since 2005 and is poorly drawn. Spoof Master does most of it’s running on the all weather but does have soft ground form and won last time out (AW) after the cheek pieces went back on. That said, it was drawn well and things went in it’s favour. El Potro has the best going form and looks very overpriced at 12.5 but the stable is in poor form and the draw won’t help. Does like to hang right, but shouldn’t be an issue at this right handed track. I’d love to go for El Potro at that price, but I have to go with Lake Chini.

Lake Chini: 1 point win but a drift may see me back Spoof Master (1 point total; to win if shorter than 5/1, e/w if not)

In the second race at 14:30, Chilly Filly is a big odds on favourite at 1.52 – in these races it’s always the same. The one with any form is odds on and no value. I’ll be watching for market moves as ever (Dance Society?) but if nothing emerges, I’ll probably plough into the favourite.

Wait and see: probably a couple of points on the favourite

The 15:00 is yet another tricky one, with all the runners having decent form in these conditions and as much as I like the overnight favourite Collateral Damage, I’m taking a chance on Nevada Desert. It was held a length two starts back by Collateral Damage, but the selection carries 2lbs fewer than that day and Collateral Damage carries more, whilst the selection is something of a C&D specialist, having won 3/12 starts at Beverley (two seconds also) and has 2/2 wins on heavy ground at this distance. Works well with this jockey too. Too big at 9.2 overnight.

Nevada Desert: 1 point

Harvest Warrior seems overpriced in the 15:50 as he’s much closer to his last winning mark and is back over a sensible trip. Has proven heavy ground form, winning a mile long effort at this track, when just 4lbs lower on the official handicap. Really can’t understand the 18.0 price on Betfair just now and any move for this, I’ll have to consider. In the meantime, I’m finding the favourite very easy to oppose indeed and I like the chances of Sacrilege, who shouldn’t find the step up too hard given the pedigree and who is lightly raced and looks progressive. Winning turf debut was on soft ground too, should have a good chance.

Sacrilege: 1 point, unless there’s a move for Harvest Warrior, in which case I’ll nibble e/w at him.

The 16:00 is a horrible nursery, only two have actually run on heavy and both were shite, so there’s a bit of guessing to be done. Rose Of Coma is the form pick, but only has a third place to boast on soft ground, though it was at this course. With little else to go on, a tentative point will be enjoyed, unless there’s some sort of move.

Rose Of Coma: 1 point

The last race is at 17:00 and is a giganto 17 runner affair, for lady amateur jockeys. Too ridiculous. I might just back the hottest jockey or the most amusingly named (Miss Coward perhaps?) if I don’t get a look. Most of the likely key players have finished behind Jenny Soba, but at 4.3 I’m really not interested in taking that one. Scotty’s Future looks a probable minimum stakes e/w bet, if only for the vague Campbell and therefore Scoop Troop connection. Used to be a good sort many years ago and has won a few 10 furlong affairs in the past. Not won since the summer of 2007 but that was here on heavy ground and the win before that, in 2006, was also here on good to soft. You have to go back to 2004 for it’s last win at the trip but in this race, I think form can basically fuck off :D

Novelty selection, Scotty’s Future: 0.5 points e/w

Stat attack

Time for a monthly progress report.

August started off solidly but quickly deteriorated, not so much in terms of profit but more in the sense that I lost a bit of discipline. For the first half of the month I placed 15 bets and for the back half, I placed 36. I appear to have reverted to betting on too many selections. Yesterday I even chased a bit and I haven’t done that in months. But I’ve recognised what’s going on early and I am trying to reign it in. I suspect a lot of it has to do with a bit of tilt from last weekend when a matched betting error cost me close to £300 (more than I initially realised – about £50 of it was in the form of a free bet though, so not actual money lost) and although it’s not a huge deal, in that I’m still £1,342 up from matched betting, it always hurts to lose that kind of cash when you’re out of a job.

Some stats for August:

No. of bets – 51
Total profit – 6.64 points
Level stakes profit – 0.41 points
Strike rate – 28.00%

Although I hadn’t earned that much really, my strike rate was a lot better until I lost that bit of discipline. Same for the level stakes profit, yesterday messed that up a fair bit. The roll had hit an all time high on the 23rd, but the 24th was my little baseball experiment and I also had a couple of losing nags. A reasonable day at Catterick got things on the up again (and accounted for a few of the extra bets, 7 races 7 bets there) but I lost ten points in two days on the 28th and 29th thanks to all four of my picks talking a massive walk in the market before failing to perform. Yesterday was also bad, my Anelka to score anytime bet failing and a three point nag failing sent me a bit tilty. A few chasey bets followed, ending the day 2.4 points up.

So: problems identified, must work harder to improve. I’ve had two bets today, both bigger than usual and neither down to my efforts. Hugh Taylor at ATR had identified a couple and he’s been in form, so I all but blindly followed. One failed, one scored. My bets were slightly bigger than advised and I made 3.8 points out of it. A 50% strike rate and a small profit, a solid start to the month (total currently 51.86). I will most likely go to Southwell tomorrow as I’m bored and my sister is currently in labour, so stuff’s going to get hectic. A relaxing day at the nags followed by a trip to the hospital in the evening when shit’s cooled down is very much the sensible approach, I think. Haven’t studied any form yet but will tonight, I may or may not post my findings. I like to when I’m going to a meet, but this post is already getting lengthy, don’t want another mammoth post following it.

Quick graph attack. I do love my graphs.


Keep on scooping, mutha funsters.

Edit: been trying to study but my eyes just keep shutting. Going to bed now, will try to get up early and work harder but I just can't see it. The card is horrible, anyone who gets one winner here today will have done well, I think.

Here's my picks so far, all very tentative and of course, subject to change depending on the opening prices on track/market moves etc

14:10 Chroal Festival (probably 3 pts)
14:45 Ioerk Byrnison (definitely e/w, likely 0.5pts e/w)
15:20 Mac Dalia (likely e/w, probably 1pt e/w. If it opens shorter than I'm expecting, may well become a "to win" bet)
15:55 Bolckow (as above)
16:30 Elusive Hawk (probably 2 points, depends on the market)
17:05 Ocen Legend (maybe just a point, maybe two)

All I know so far is that it pays to follow those with experience at the track and those that run prominently, at Southwell. I really like Mac Dalia as it's won a few times here, runs prominently and really interestingly, it usualy runs well when running for the second time in about a week, after a crap run (often stepped up in class or trip). In fact it's won over C&D 3 times, those wins coming 5 days after a 6/17, 11 days after a 5/5 and 7 days after a 6/6. It's also got a 2nd place here which came 7 days after a 10/12. Just so you know, it last ran 6 days ago and finished 10/12. At 9.2 on Betfair just now, it looks a solid e/w play.