Monday, 1 September 2008

Stat attack

Time for a monthly progress report.

August started off solidly but quickly deteriorated, not so much in terms of profit but more in the sense that I lost a bit of discipline. For the first half of the month I placed 15 bets and for the back half, I placed 36. I appear to have reverted to betting on too many selections. Yesterday I even chased a bit and I haven’t done that in months. But I’ve recognised what’s going on early and I am trying to reign it in. I suspect a lot of it has to do with a bit of tilt from last weekend when a matched betting error cost me close to £300 (more than I initially realised – about £50 of it was in the form of a free bet though, so not actual money lost) and although it’s not a huge deal, in that I’m still £1,342 up from matched betting, it always hurts to lose that kind of cash when you’re out of a job.

Some stats for August:

No. of bets – 51
Total profit – 6.64 points
Level stakes profit – 0.41 points
Strike rate – 28.00%

Although I hadn’t earned that much really, my strike rate was a lot better until I lost that bit of discipline. Same for the level stakes profit, yesterday messed that up a fair bit. The roll had hit an all time high on the 23rd, but the 24th was my little baseball experiment and I also had a couple of losing nags. A reasonable day at Catterick got things on the up again (and accounted for a few of the extra bets, 7 races 7 bets there) but I lost ten points in two days on the 28th and 29th thanks to all four of my picks talking a massive walk in the market before failing to perform. Yesterday was also bad, my Anelka to score anytime bet failing and a three point nag failing sent me a bit tilty. A few chasey bets followed, ending the day 2.4 points up.

So: problems identified, must work harder to improve. I’ve had two bets today, both bigger than usual and neither down to my efforts. Hugh Taylor at ATR had identified a couple and he’s been in form, so I all but blindly followed. One failed, one scored. My bets were slightly bigger than advised and I made 3.8 points out of it. A 50% strike rate and a small profit, a solid start to the month (total currently 51.86). I will most likely go to Southwell tomorrow as I’m bored and my sister is currently in labour, so stuff’s going to get hectic. A relaxing day at the nags followed by a trip to the hospital in the evening when shit’s cooled down is very much the sensible approach, I think. Haven’t studied any form yet but will tonight, I may or may not post my findings. I like to when I’m going to a meet, but this post is already getting lengthy, don’t want another mammoth post following it.

Quick graph attack. I do love my graphs.

Keep on scooping, mutha funsters.

Edit: been trying to study but my eyes just keep shutting. Going to bed now, will try to get up early and work harder but I just can't see it. The card is horrible, anyone who gets one winner here today will have done well, I think.

Here's my picks so far, all very tentative and of course, subject to change depending on the opening prices on track/market moves etc

14:10 Chroal Festival (probably 3 pts)
14:45 Ioerk Byrnison (definitely e/w, likely 0.5pts e/w)
15:20 Mac Dalia (likely e/w, probably 1pt e/w. If it opens shorter than I'm expecting, may well become a "to win" bet)
15:55 Bolckow (as above)
16:30 Elusive Hawk (probably 2 points, depends on the market)
17:05 Ocen Legend (maybe just a point, maybe two)

All I know so far is that it pays to follow those with experience at the track and those that run prominently, at Southwell. I really like Mac Dalia as it's won a few times here, runs prominently and really interestingly, it usualy runs well when running for the second time in about a week, after a crap run (often stepped up in class or trip). In fact it's won over C&D 3 times, those wins coming 5 days after a 6/17, 11 days after a 5/5 and 7 days after a 6/6. It's also got a 2nd place here which came 7 days after a 10/12. Just so you know, it last ran 6 days ago and finished 10/12. At 9.2 on Betfair just now, it looks a solid e/w play.


moDtheGod said...

How the fuck can I make these graphs bigger? Sometimes when I post a picture, you can click on it and enlarg it? Why don't the graphs do that?

Blogging n00b.

moDtheGod said...

I didn't get up early, as expected and I have to get the bus in 20 minutes. It didn't help that I kept getting woken up with baby related news.

My sister finally had her sprog this morning. Only 5 days late and needing induced into the bargain. So yeah, any late changes to my picks may be down to coincidence betting.

For Tim: I would back a horse called "Uncle Charlie" for example :D

Oh that reminds me actually. Eating my tea yesterday with my folks, I properly bolled twice and got funny looks. First of all, my dad had been to see my sister in the hospital and he took a bag of chips for Jamie (my sister's fella) cos he'd been there all day with nowt to eat. He later text my dad which he read out at the table and, you guessed it, it ended "thanks for chips" and then about 2 minutes later and I've no idea why, my dad said something about "Uncle Charlie". I wish I could remember what it was, pretty random though.

This has turned into an EPIC.

moDtheGod said...

Matt Doyle returns from holiday and goes with Bolckow for a point. Woo!

The Kenster said...

Congratulations my man.

We should get together with cigars and celebrate, as I too am an uncle once more.

We can sit back and muse about life and philosophy and all that stuff.

moDtheGod said...

Sounds like a plan. What a shit day I've had.

Got up after fuck all sleep, absolutely knackered. Bus comes 10 minutes late cos it's ram jam full of fucking kiddies all screaming shouting and swearing, telling the entire bus about what they're spending their cadged £20 on and somehow I make it to the station just in time.

BUT! The trains around the area all being replaced with bus services. That's okay, the route I took left me a full hour between the connections, I'll just get the bus. No bother. Heh, the slowest driver in the world ensures I get there 5 minutes after my connection has sailed, and because Southwell is in the boonies, the trains only run every two hours and they don't even always stop there. A bus was going to get me there just in time for the third race assuming no delays and then it was an extra expense and a taxi was going to cost me £35 and not guarantee I get to the first race.

I then plod into a bookie and drop 3 points on the opening race before sulking and fannying about with public transport. Oh they've got a train BACK alright, haven't they? I get in just in time to stick 2 points on Ocean Legend in the last as I saw it was enjoying favouritism, which it wasn't last night, and it seems that's just lost.

A thoroughly awful day, I need to write this one off.

TheHat said...