Tuesday, 23 September 2008

Beverley Bets

Okay, another impromptu trip racing and it’s Beverley again. I’m actually going to get up this time, honest.

So as I said last time, Beverley’s known for a big draw bias, especially over 5f – high numbers are good. The forecast going is Good to Soft, good in places and it seems like it’s going to be dry overnight, so hopefully that’ll stay about the same.

The opening race is a 5f novices affair. As you know, I dislike these types of races but I do try to punt on every race when I attend a meeting and the immediate appeal lies with Blades Princess. Come on, with a name like that I HAVE to back her. Currently at 3.85 on Betfair she makes better appeal than the odds on favourite, because as good as Amour Propre looks on paper, the selection has already acted on the forecast ground and is in receipt of 10lbs. She also finds herself drawn in stall 7 (of 7, Amour Propre drawn 3) which is nice to know, especially over 5f. On top of that, the stable won this race last time out, so she should be well prepared.

Verdict: always seems worth opposing odds-on types in these sorts of races, especially with all the positives listed. 1 point win Blades Princess

The next race (14:30) is also a 5f sprint, three of the entrants in this I saw up close and personal at Doncaster last weekend in the Ladbrokes Portland (which provided me with my second winner of the day in Hogmaneigh; I was two from two at that point at 5/1 and 9/1 and suddenly my friends were taking my analysis a little more seriously…). Oldjoesaid seems the obvious pick as this is nowhere near the class of the Portland and that was the horse that finished highest (4th) of the three. Although it didn’t beat either by much, it was carrying the most weight and tomorrow they’ll all be carrying the same. With form seemingly confirmed there, the only other to consider is Hoh Mike, who does most of his racing in Group Company. Recently dropped in grade, he frustrated with a very poor break and a disappointing run and followed up with another shocker when moved back up to Listed company. His last run was more encouraging, but he could only finish second. One to be wary of I think and I’ll stick with the Portland 4th.

Verdict: competitive but Oldjoesaid should win. Strike Up The Band and Fullandby have better draws so it’ll be interesting; for that reason it’s the minimum 1 point bet.

The 15:00 is a 12 furlong seller and all the talk is about Pondapie. I wouldn’t touch this horse with Scott’s money though, 2/1 clear favourite as I type, in a field of 12, represents zero value. This horse has been beaten 52 and 22 lengths over this trip in just a grade higher and off a similar mark, whilst his last two outings have been at this grade but a shade shorter and have seen him beaten 75 lengths and 1.75 lengths in a really modest maiden. The best performance of those four was on good ground, two of the shockers were on softer ground. Best to steer clear of this one I think, especially at the price. The best value looks to be either Sorrento Moon or Jane of Arc. The former ran on strongly on similar ground to win last time over two furlongs fewer and should stay on pedigree, whilst the latter returns to a trip which has seen her produce her best form. I suspect she may like the ground a little better and may need to drop a little further in the ratings before she lands a race like this and so I’ll be placing the minimum e/w bet on Sorrento Moon.

Verdict: more competitive than you’d think looking at the market (in my opinion) and there’s value to be had if you can be bothered looking. Sorrento Moon at 0.5 pts e/w is the way I’ll be going.

Another really competitive affair in the 15:30, over 7 and a half furlongs. There are just so many with chances, I don’t even know where to start. I suppose Handsome Falcon is the most obvious starting point, winning at Ayr in better company and narrowly losing out over C&D the time before whilst carrying tonnes, it seems a big price at 8.2 as I type. Especially as Freddie Tylicki is on board, taking off a useful 5lbs (good god, is he down to 5lbs already? The kid is GOOD). When it lost out by a neck to Mr Toshiwonka, there was a similar gap in the weights to tomorrow, so that 5lbs looks very handy indeed. Jonny Lester’s Hair also ran that day and came third, but I saw him at Catterick not long after and he seemed a tricky ride. Pulled a bit keenly if memory serves. One of interest to me is West End Lad who seems to have been tried at a variety of trips but does his best work at 8 furlongs and these stats are impressive: 2 wins and 2 seconds from 7 runs over 8f; 1 win from 1 (by 6 lengths) over Beverley’s 7.5 furlongs - that was off a mark of 62 (goes off 63 tomorrow and carries a featherweight); 1 win from 2 runs on Good to Soft ground, the defeat coming on the gelding’s second ever start, the win coming just this summer.

Verdict: impossibly trappy race, seems value in West End Lad at 13.5 as I type as well as Handsome Falcon (8.2 at time of writing) but I’m plumping for the former, 0.5 pts e/w)

The 16:00 is over the same distance but is for n00b nags and I’m going to take a chance. I hate these races, as per usual, the experts all look at the miniscule scraps of form and those horses are at tiny prices. I wish I knew more about pedigrees and breeding, because there must be money to be made in these types of races. Anyway, Trumpstoo is priced at 15.0 on Betfair just now and Richard Fahey has a good record at Beverley: in the last 5 seasons at the track, horses have won 49 out of 281 races at a very respectable 17% strike rate and a £1 level stakes profit of £113.38 – impressive. His 2 year olds at the course, in the same period of time, have won 14% of races, for £14.38 level stakes. This season, his n00b nags at the track have won 3/9 races. From my limited knowledhe, his pedigree looks pretty decent too. I despise these races, but those numbers are enough for me in a race where you really do have to simply guess the winner.

Verdict: 0.5 points e/w on Trumpstoo, while everyone else is eyeing up Hunterview and Kudu Country

The penultimate race is a 14 runner affair, contested over a mile. On paper, it is yet another really tricky race. The first name that jumps out is Dancing Maite, because it was 4th behind a few of those in today’s 15:30 race and I was on e/w at a decent price on my visit Catterick. I won’t be backing it today though, with no evidence of ability on softer ground and a step up in trip which on pedigree, doesn’t appear like it will suit. I think I’ll watch the market on this one, because I hate backing favourites in such big fields but it seems that the favourite has the best form and the best draw. Thing is though, I reckon this trip could be too short. I will watch the market and likely choose from Shaloo Diamond to win or Metal madness, possibly at an e/w price.

Verdict: going to watch the market. Shaloo Diamond has good form but may need a stiffer trip; Metal Madness may be the value if I oppose

The last race is going to be carnage. 16 runners, amateur riders and I haven’t a clue, frankly. I might just go minimum stakes on Faraday because Nina Carberry is a great jockey and she’s clearly the standout pilot in the field. I don’t think that’s a bad strategy, actually. I’d normally follow the market but the RP have gone with the favourite and I can imagine punters steaming into it, with it being the last race of the meeting (in fact, it’s the third last race of the day).

Verdict: might as well ring Kenny up and ask him to pick a number, he’s good at fluking winners. Will either back the Carberry ride or back a market mover. 0.5 pts e/w of course.


moDtheGod said...

Just about to head for the bus, had my first dabble with the Placepot.

Gone for: 14:00 Glamorous Spirit, Blades Princess; 14:30 Oldjoesaid, Strike Up The Band; 15:00 Sorrento Moon, Jane Of Arc; 15:30 Handsome Falcon, Mr Toshiwonka; 16:00 Hunterview; 16:30 Shaloo Diamond, Deira Dubai

50p, so total stake £16. I can't pretend to fully understand how the payout works, I just know that the dividend is bigger when fewer favourites place. Bit of fun anyway.

Let's see what happens.

I see the favourite has pulled out of the first race, might well be upping the size of that bet on the Blades now. Will see when I get there.

moDtheGod said...

Quick roundup for you:

Beverley – nice little course, pleased I didn’t get killed by a runaway horse (for those unaware, a nag got out of the parade ring last week and ended up in the grandstand. It’s not the first time either, it happened there a few years back) but a bit disappointed by the lack of cashpoint facilities. Due to my bus being a bit late I didn’t have chance to use the cash machine in Sheffield and Beverley is the tiniest station ever, so they didn’t have one. I just assumed there would be one at the track, but obviously not. The only source of funds was the Tote shop, where you could get £50 cashback if you placed a bet, so I put my first £30 bet on in three £10 singles, to withdraw £150. What a pain! How do you expect to make any money if the punters don’t have cash on tap?

I recognised at least three of the bookmakers in the betting ring yesterday, two from Catterick and I’m not sure where the other was from, possibly York, possibly Catterick also. I think that’s a little worrying – I need to get out… erm… less! The old boy I recognised didn’t take a single bet on races at Beverley yesterday, he pitched up off to the side and took bets on all the other races on ATR. An interesting strategy, wonder if he makes much doing that. He did seem to be quite busy.

Anyway, to my bets.

Blades Princess in the opener, 3 points due to the short price favourite withdrawing. Lame price of 8/13 though. A comfortable winner, the jockey was almost taking the piss out of Jamie Spencer behind him, could be one to keep an eye on. Return: 4.85 pts.

I upped my bet on Oldjoesaid to 3 points after reading lots of positives that morning online and in the RP. I’m annoyed with myself for doing that, if I’d re-read my own analysis and not got carried away, there were REASONS for keeping it at 1pt. As it happens, the three from the Portland finished in a straight line; Oldjoesaid broke poorly and that was the difference. A clean start and it wins by half a length and fair play to the handicapper, they’ve got it spot on there. No comfort to me though, with a 3 point loss.

Wasn’t sure what to make of the 15:00. In my analysis I write the winner off because of its ridiculously heavy defeats. Funny then that after losing by 75 lengths, it runs away with this by a full 9 lengths. There was rightly an enquiry but they were happy that nothing dodgy was going on. Apparently the application of the sheepskin cheekpieces makes the horse focus more. Some gadgets they are, if they improve your horse by 84 lengths. Still. My own pick shortened right up but was a disappointing fifth. Loss: 1 point (minimum e/w bet).

I wrote the winner of this race off due to it pulling hard at Catterick. Seems that everything that I wrote off today for inconsistencies and wayward form all brought their A games to this meeting, just to spite me. My pick was a big price overnight and had lengthened by 9 a.m. to a shade under 20 at Betfair. Imagine my surprise on track to see it open at 7/1 and eventually go off 9/2 joint favourite. As encouraging as that is, that you can find things like that so you’re obviously doing something right, the horse was disappointing and was a never fifth. This race also messed up my first ever dabble in the Placepot. This race was the only one I didn’t get a place finisher in and I’d have had a few winning lines if either of my picks (5th and 6th) had placed in this race. Big scoop narrowly missed. I will definitely be enjoying the Placepot more often, great little game. Loss: 1 point (minimum e/w).

The 16:00 was the bookies dream. The two shortest horses in the market, clear favourites at evens and 3/1, dead heated first. My own pick, the pure stats pick looked briefly to have a chance of placing, but faded into yet another fifth place. I never seriously expected any other kind of result, but in these types of races there’s no value in the favourites and I’d make that 50/1 e/w bet every time. Loss: 1 point (minimum e/w).

The 16:30 netted me my second and final winner. The 412 withdrawn horses meant a meagre 11/4 price, but my 1 point bet still returned 3.75 points.

The last race was a major frustration because I decided I was going to back Kingsholm earlier in the day, which won, but then for some inexplicable reason I went back to my overnight “guess” of just backing the Carberry horse. As it happens, that one shortened right up and went off as 7/2 favourite (I did get 11/2 myself) and came a long way back, second last. In it’s defence, it was interfered with by a weakening horse, but that can only explain some of it’s disappointing run, not all of it. Anyway, 1 point lost.

So then, a paltry 0.63 point gain from the trip (not including expenses of course) and hopefully some lessons learned. I’m much more confident these days about flying in the face of the experts so I’m really, really annoyed with my decision on Oldjoesaid. That shouldn’t be happening. It can be very tempting though to change your mind based on a lot of people who know what they’re talking about…

Sccop troop profits: 53.04 points

moDtheGod said...

I lie, forgot all about my placepot bet. Sccop troop profits: 51.44 points.