Tuesday, 9 September 2008


Another impromptu trip to the nags for me in the morning. I seem to cut it more and more fine, deciding at 0:45 to go this time. My options are Leicester (just under an hour away on the train) or Beverley (anything from 90 minutes to three hours depending on connections) but the Leicester card looks shit, with a few 4 runner races and a couple of massive fields. I’ll take my chances in Yorkshire, I reckon I can do it in just under two hours so no bother.

Beverley is one of the most biased tracks in Britain. It may even be the most biased. I will be looking at the high numbers for sure tomorrow, as everything I’ve read suggests that’s the way to go, but it’ll be interesting to see how much of that holds true given the horrendous rain we’ve had in these parts and the forecast going, which is heavy. It seems that the course is most biased over five furlongs which is nice, as we’ve got two of these on the card and both are handicaps (obviously in a handicap, all the nags are supposed to be weighted so that they all have an equal chance – if this is true, than the bias should be at it’s most noticeable)

The first of these 5f handicaps, the 14:00 race, is a mammoth 17 runner and so finding the winner will be tough. Whozart makes immediate appeal drawn in the highest stall of all and the market reflects that, showing as the early 9/2 favourite, but I need a bigger price than that in this sort of field. Dubai To Barnsley has a fantastic name and won here not long ago, on soft ground but absolutely everything went his way that day, so I’ll probably stay away. Myriola was second by a neck in that race and seemed to like the ground too, but takes an identical hike in weights to the winner and is poorly drawn, no reason to believe they will reverse form. I’d like the look of Wicked Wilma at the price if she only liked the ground, but I suspect she wants it better than tomorrow. I’d normally leave this well alone, but as I’m going I have to punt. I thought Head To Head looked a bit overpriced at 23 and I thought about it, because I’d look a genius if it came in, but I’m going to go for the minimum e/w bet on Monte Major. Much better on the all weather, but he has placed a few times at a better grade with cut in the ground and this race isn’t going to take a lot of winning. A shade over 7/1 at the minute and worth a try.

Monte Major: 0.5 points e/w. Could be persuaded by a market move for Mormeatmic

The second of the 5f handicaps is at 16:30 and looks just as tricky. Lake Chini is favourite at 3.75 overnight. It has the best draw (second highest, I read somewhere that the second highest drawn wins slightly more than the highest of all) and has performed at the track. It last ran two days ago but this doesn’t concern me – on August 22nd last year he ran second by a half length (to Soto actually, who runs today) but two days later followed it up by running second (at Beverley) to Making Music, losing by just half a length, form that was backed up the following month, where the gelding again ran second to Making Music, this time losing by just a neck. Soto is the RP’s pick but he hasn’t won at 5f since 2005 and is poorly drawn. Spoof Master does most of it’s running on the all weather but does have soft ground form and won last time out (AW) after the cheek pieces went back on. That said, it was drawn well and things went in it’s favour. El Potro has the best going form and looks very overpriced at 12.5 but the stable is in poor form and the draw won’t help. Does like to hang right, but shouldn’t be an issue at this right handed track. I’d love to go for El Potro at that price, but I have to go with Lake Chini.

Lake Chini: 1 point win but a drift may see me back Spoof Master (1 point total; to win if shorter than 5/1, e/w if not)

In the second race at 14:30, Chilly Filly is a big odds on favourite at 1.52 – in these races it’s always the same. The one with any form is odds on and no value. I’ll be watching for market moves as ever (Dance Society?) but if nothing emerges, I’ll probably plough into the favourite.

Wait and see: probably a couple of points on the favourite

The 15:00 is yet another tricky one, with all the runners having decent form in these conditions and as much as I like the overnight favourite Collateral Damage, I’m taking a chance on Nevada Desert. It was held a length two starts back by Collateral Damage, but the selection carries 2lbs fewer than that day and Collateral Damage carries more, whilst the selection is something of a C&D specialist, having won 3/12 starts at Beverley (two seconds also) and has 2/2 wins on heavy ground at this distance. Works well with this jockey too. Too big at 9.2 overnight.

Nevada Desert: 1 point

Harvest Warrior seems overpriced in the 15:50 as he’s much closer to his last winning mark and is back over a sensible trip. Has proven heavy ground form, winning a mile long effort at this track, when just 4lbs lower on the official handicap. Really can’t understand the 18.0 price on Betfair just now and any move for this, I’ll have to consider. In the meantime, I’m finding the favourite very easy to oppose indeed and I like the chances of Sacrilege, who shouldn’t find the step up too hard given the pedigree and who is lightly raced and looks progressive. Winning turf debut was on soft ground too, should have a good chance.

Sacrilege: 1 point, unless there’s a move for Harvest Warrior, in which case I’ll nibble e/w at him.

The 16:00 is a horrible nursery, only two have actually run on heavy and both were shite, so there’s a bit of guessing to be done. Rose Of Coma is the form pick, but only has a third place to boast on soft ground, though it was at this course. With little else to go on, a tentative point will be enjoyed, unless there’s some sort of move.

Rose Of Coma: 1 point

The last race is at 17:00 and is a giganto 17 runner affair, for lady amateur jockeys. Too ridiculous. I might just back the hottest jockey or the most amusingly named (Miss Coward perhaps?) if I don’t get a look. Most of the likely key players have finished behind Jenny Soba, but at 4.3 I’m really not interested in taking that one. Scotty’s Future looks a probable minimum stakes e/w bet, if only for the vague Campbell and therefore Scoop Troop connection. Used to be a good sort many years ago and has won a few 10 furlong affairs in the past. Not won since the summer of 2007 but that was here on heavy ground and the win before that, in 2006, was also here on good to soft. You have to go back to 2004 for it’s last win at the trip but in this race, I think form can basically fuck off :D

Novelty selection, Scotty’s Future: 0.5 points e/w


Mountain Man said...

Every time you decide to go to the races it pisses it down.

Beverley is a nice little course as far as I can remember; it's really odd as the main road almost runs right through it.

moDtheGod said...

I didn't get any sleep last night. I was in bed for 4 but it was after 5 that I drifted off. I didn't wake up til 11, must have missed my alarm. Couldn't be arsed getting up to see if I could salvage it (unlikely, as my route that I'd planned got me there for half 1 and required getting the 10:47 bus) so I never went. I haven't even bet on any of these tawdry horses yet either. Just as well looking at the results, Chilly Filly the 2/5 favourite losing, lol.