Tuesday, 30 September 2008

Sell! Sell! Sell!

Not done much gambling of late, but I’ve spotted something I like for tomorrow. GG.com have made Kingsholm their nap in the 17:10 at Warwick. I wouldn’t have even noticed this race if the notoriously bad tipping section of their otherwise useful website hadn’t alerted me to it, but I can tell you, hopefully not in a William Walsh sty-lee, that this horse will under no circumstances win this race.

Let’s look at the evidence[/Lloyd Grossman]

I saw this horse run at Beverley last week. It did well, don’t get me wrong. The RP had tentatively picked King Of Connacht in that race, but the horse was withdrawn; although I’m not certain why, I am assuming it was due to the soft ground, which will not be an issue on tomorrow’s forecast Good to Firm (this horse’s best form is on Good or better ground). King Of Connacht has a better jockey on board it tomorrow, than it would have last week had it run. Three days after that win for Kingsholm at Beverley, Jamie Spencer fired the chestnut gelding in again at Wolverhampton on the Fibresand under a 6lb penalty, thus incurring a further 6lb forfeit for tomorrow’s 16 strong field, over a furlong further than the horse has ever won at before.

I’m not totally convinced that King Of Connacht is the selection, as I’ve seen Astrolibra do well in better company (after telling Scott that it wouldn’t win, I believe Scott was on it and it won by a head IIRC) and these amateur races really can be like the donkey derby, but there is no way for me, that Kingsholm is winning this race and I have to lay it. It will be cream crackered and carrying nearly a stone too much! Although I can’t say I noticed it, the RP reports that the horse started poorly at Beverley, which is another slight positive for layers.

Note of caution: The Racing Post and GG.com both have it as a nap (not sure why RP’s Spotlight have decided to reverse in light of the glaring evidence you’ve just read) so it’s maybe still a risky call and right now on Betfair, Kingsholm is priced 3.9 with the nearest rival at 8.8, but I don’t care, I’m feeling brave.

Let’s review: this 16 strong race will be Kingsholm’s third in seven days, carrying 12lbs more than it ought to, whilst seven days ago, when Kingsholm was much better off in the weights, the RP was siding with an opponent who carried an inferior pilot at the time. If the horse is to win, it's going to have to win at a slightly longer trip than it's ever won at before.

I will wait until closer to the off time. RP napped favourites running late in the day are usually steamed into and I may be able to reduce my liability.

Lay Kingsholm
4pts (lay risk 11.6pts assuming I take 3.9)

1 comment:

moDtheGod said...

Watch and learn Walsh, my Lad. Watch and learn.

I managed to hold out until just before the off and take 3.5 (it was as short as 3.4 soon after and official SP is 2/1, but not the end of the world) and it eentually finished a dismal 6th, almost 6 lengths off the leader.

No way it was ever winning.

I also placed two half point e/w bets today, one on King Of Connacht in that race and one on Honours Stride in the 15.10 at Warwick. Both placed for a small profit of 0.535 points.

Scoop Troop profits after these three punts: 57.58 points