Friday, 26 December 2008

Boxing Day Bonanza

Merry Christmas all. Hope everyone had a good one.

Its a bumper day of racing today with 8 UK meetings and 3 Irish.With so many meetings though I always think it is best to avoid the junk racing at the likes of Sedgefield and concentrate on the big meetings. I've had a look at Kemptons big meeting and I have 2 selections for today.

2.05 Kempton - 3pts win Punjabi at 2.52 (Betfair)
This horse has the Grade 1 form in the race and comes into the contest in the form of his life. In his last four runs he has notched 2 Grade One hurdles victories and 2 flat victories inbetween. Add to that the trainer is in ridiculously good form. There are some decent rivals but the likes of Snap Tie and Pierrot Lunaire have a lot to prove and other like Blue Bajan, Harchibald and Straw Bear are all held on form. At this price things look perfect for me and anything above Evens is a good bet.

2.40 Kempton 3pts Lay Kauto Star@2.26
OK so Kauto Star has won this race the last two years and has won a Gold Cup. However there are a number of doubts against him for me. He was beaten when he fell last time and whilst he won the time before look at the horse that he beat that day - Light on the Broom and you can disregard the form as worthless. His last 2 runs when second in the Gold Cup and at Aintree proved his best days are gone. Normally in this situation it can be hard to find viable horses to beat it but I think there are at least 5 horses capable, not least of all Voy Pur Ustedes who at 5.3 himself is great value.

Happy punting all.


moDtheGod said...

I didn't get chance to study for the big ones today, with it being Christmas Day yesterday and working Christmas Eve. What I do know is, I've said Kauto's past it and I had an "honour" bet with my boss for two pints, that Kauto wouldn't win. Had I written a piece like I'd intended, I'm certain I would have opposed Kauto Star and I'd have likely looked to Voy Por Ustedes, though I know there were doubts over the trip.

Watching the race, Kauto Star seemed to jump awkwardly early doors and I thought that had Alberta's Run not smashed the third to last (fourth last?) fence so hard, it might have stood a genuine chance. Not sure which fence cos I was taking bets, but defintiely late on it was staying on nicely before whalloping a fence.

My Grandad chastised me this evening for wanting to oppsoe it, but at the price, it was very opposable. SP was around 10/11 I think. Ridiculous.

moDtheGod said...

Started scribing something on tomorrow's Welsh national but can't be arsed, too many with chances. Dug out the piece I wrote for Texperts on last year's Scottish national, cos it covers a couple of key players - it seems that the top weight (my tip for the Scottish, which came second to the shock winner) is on poor terms weight-wise (though he has a history of lugging home ridiculously high weights) and Choc Thornton has switched to Nenuphar Collonges - that has to be a big negative. In fact, all the talk seems to be about Nenuphar Collonges, though I hate taking favourites in races like this.

Miko de Beauchene is rated 17lbs higher than when he won this race last year, so that's a pretty big ask for him, but it does look an okay price.

I wonder if Notre Pere might be the way to go. I won't be betting, I'll be happily watching at work, but if I could be arsed to properly analyse it, I'm sure this would be the one at the back of my mind, along with the impossible to spell top weight. Notre Pere has placed in the Irish National, which could be read as an indication of ability to stay this trip (though it was well beaten) and it loves the mud - conditions we're likely to see. Could be a good e/w price.

TheHat said...

awesome work dom

The Gambler said...

Dear oh dear The Hat, if only u consulted me on your two posted selections. Was it you who took my £300 bet on Kauto?

moDtheGod said...

Aye, was kicking myself. William Hill pushed it out from 10/1 to 16/1 too.

Impossible to spell top weight got home in third too, that horse always carries ridiculous weights and always seems to be in the frame.

TheHat said...

Hi Gambler, there is a few of us who post on this blog - this particular post wasn't by me.

I wasn't massively involved in this race - had a little on Our Vic and Alberta's Run e/w so made a bit of profit.