Tuesday, 5 August 2008

Will? Were you at Carlisle this evening?

From the RP
An angry punter, seemingly the worse for drink, held up the third race at Carlisle on Monday night for fully eight minutes after remaining on the course and shouting abuse at jockeys.

Tom Eaves, who rode the unplaced Liberty Lodge in the race, said; "He was shouting stuff at us as we walked around at the start and wouldn't get out of the way."

I can just imagine it. "You're a joke, a fucking clown! What a shit ride, I hope you realise what you've cost me. Fucking joke. You should retire now because you're fucking shite!"

Anyway, I came online to study some form and basically there's nothing really that I like, apart from in the 17:00 at Catterick (7f) where I will be enjoying an e/w punt.

The forecast favourite (5.1 as I type) looks pish to me. It's basically done nothing. I don't care that the way this race should be run will suit it, it's average and it's carrying more weight than it's ever done before. Bohobe (7.0) doesn't impress me either. Am I supposed to care that they've booked Seb Sanders? You can't polish a turd. Putting a good jockey on it won't make it win. It's never acted on the forecast ground (Good to Firm) before and it's only win was on Good to Soft, over the minimum trip.

Looking at how Red Skipper's career has panned out, you'd have to think that this trip is going to suit it, but then you realise that it has run over 7f before and it came last. I watched that race and it was fucking terrible, properly shit. Broke perfectly, faded quickly, never responded to the jockey at all and generally ran about as well as Tim plays poker. I really can't understand why it's forecast second favourite by ATR, I think the RP are closer and I think even Betfair is wrong just now, I can't believe it's ahead of Just Sam in the market. I expect that will all have changed when I wake up.

Speaking of Just Sam, what a consistent filly she is, but she obviously doesn't like winning. She's had a few good chances and always comes second, perhaps comparable to Alan Sharp's poker career. Last time out she lost by a neck to a nag which later showed up nowhere in a seller. Today she'll carry 7lbs more for that and I can envisage another bridesmaid performance.

Nothing else really takes my eye; Fantasy Fighter looks horrendous but will be carrying a feather weight so could run a place, Afton View looks like it's got it's best chance to do well and Monte Cassino has also has good a chance as he'll ever get (ran okay in maiden company last time out and loses almost a stone for it!) but none impress me as much as Johnny Friendly.

A useful win over this trip and in this company on the all weather was followed up by a third place a class higher (the winner of that was far too good for that grade and the second went on to win a class six race and come second at class five to a useful sort) . He then scored another class five second place, in a race where there was no real front runner. Forced to make the running, Johnny Friendly was overtaken by two others but rallied and stayed on well to get second in a blanket finish. More recently tried over 8f, which stretches him, it seems a return to this trip is the way forward and although the weight may be a little high, I think he's got more than enough about him to take this down. The price has actually shortened as I've typed all this out and it's only 5.9 at Betfair now but as I don't see it getting much bigger, I'm going to take some of it.

I'm going to back it e/w because I'm chicken. I am worried about those two feather weight horses getting lucky, basically. Instead of 2pts to win, I'm going 1pt e/w. This is going to be my only bet of the day, nothing else grabs me at all.


1 comment:

moDtheGod said...

Wasn't able to watch, so I've no idea what happened, but Johnny Friendly has placed.

Ubenkor has finally done something anyway, I knew the way the race would be run would suit it, but I just couldn't see it winning. Afton View has come second at a good price, I felt that it was it's best chance to do well, it'll never have a better chance to win.

Wish I could've seen the race to see if my pick has excuses or not. It shortened right up just before the off, was 4.9 on Betfair and official SP was 4/1. I got 6.1 and 2.2, so tiny scoopage.