Saturday, 2 August 2008

Glorious Gambling

I haven’t studied any form for a good few days so I thought I’d check out Saturday at Goodwood. Owing to not having a TV in the room where I am based at my folks, I’m finding following the racing difficult. Yesterday I watched my first Goodwood races – ridiculous! I punted on two of them, I was on Cape Hawk e/w (placed 4th, small profit) and Sohcahtoa (won, decent profit) which moved the Scoop Troop profits up to a healthy 49.04 points.

I am going to use the products of tonight’s studying to enter the latest Beat Victor competition ( which I forgot to enter last week, owing to being at York. Pretty sure I will never win a Beat Victor contest ever again, but if I get the free £5 bet, that’s better than nothing. I've not even glanced at the card prior to this, so I've nothing already in mind and I've no idea what I'll end up with.

Getting our priorities in order right off the bat, let’s look at the draw. I understand there to be a significant draw bias in sprints at Goodwood, in favour of the higher numbered stalls. It is even more prominent at on the round course and for the longer distances, the centre seems to be the way to go. The going looks set to be Good to Firm, ideal conditions.

The opening race 11 furlong looks a tricky contest but I like the looks of Cosmea, available at 6.6 on Betfair as I type. This one won a fortnight ago, beating a horse by a neck which then turned up at Goodwood on Wednesday, comfortably winning a class 2 race. A winner over 10 and 12 furlongs, at similar weights to today, it should easily be able to cope. The favourite has never run beyond 9 furlongs and though the pedigree suggests it might be able to handle it, I’d rather back the proven performer. Here’s hoping jockey Dane O’Neill comes back from his fortnight’s lay off in the same form he left us with – his last day’s work saw him fire in three winners, a second and a third from seven rides.

Verdict: Cosmea 1 pt.

I’m thoroughly confused by the second race. I can’t understand why Perfect Stride is so short, he surely needs to be bigger than 3.15 on offer at Betfair just now and although River Proud (who seems the best bet for me) is a much healthier 4.3, I can’t back him due to his behavioural problems. Stubbs Art is consistent at a higher level and I can forgive the run last time out but it may not even go, says the trainer. If forced I’d probably go with Stubbs Art, but I think I’ll just be watching.

Verdict: No thanks.

The 15:15 Group 1 looks really straightforward. It just has to be Lush Lashes (right). Bounced back nicely from a blip at Epsom and can handle 10 furlongs, as proven when beating a couple of useful sorts at York on Good to Firm. The only one coming close for me is the O’Brien filly (and who’d bet against O’Brien winning another Group 1!?) but given that last time out it could only beat Tuscan Evening by a head with Mad About You another head behind, I’m not impressed; Mad About You reappeared 5 ¾ lengths behind Moonstone (who Lush Lashes beat at York by 7 lengths) and Tuscan Evening turned out last time 14 ½ lengths behind Lush Lashes. Sorry Will, but you Coolmore whores can’t win every race… I will be putting this down as my first tilt at 'L' in the A-Z game also.

Verdict: Lush Lashes 2pts. Same applies for my A-Z game.

The 15:50 has 28 runners. That is all. I will be keeping an eye on Orpsie Boy though, as Kirsty is on board, like she was the other day at Ascot in another massive race, scoring a creditable 5th place. It must be said though, I think they were lucky to be drawn where all the pace was, a couple of better horses on the opposite side came nowhere with nothing to race against.

Verdict. Don’t even GO there, girlfriend. Watch Miss Milczarek fire in a 33/1 shot and then cry for not backing it e/w.

Another no go is the 16:25. It’s a maiden and it’s got 18 entrants. They’re mostly talking about Holyrood, because it looked like it could be useful finishing 4th in it’s only run. Sigh. I’ll leave the guesswork to Scott, I like my bets to have a little substance to them. One thing I will bet on though, Laura or Kenny could pick one out blindfolded and the fucking thing would probably win.

Verdict: No bet.

The 17:00 nursery looks a tricky one to sort out, with most pundits opting for the top weight. I think Golden Rosie is in with a good chance and 9lbs lighter than Tishtar, I’d be inclined to go with her. Fault interests me, it’s either going to win it, or come last.

Verdict: No bet. I like Golden Rosie but not enough. If there’s a market move or something, I might be persuaded to put a point on.

The apprentice race at 17:35 is yet another horrible one. I’d love to back Kirsty Milczarek, as you all know, but she’s on a shocker of a horse. I rate David Probert as an up and coming jockey and his ride Count Ceprano interests me but again, not enough to punt on. White Deer has interesting form but looks unlikely to stay 11 furlongs. A horrible, horrible race to sort out.

Verdict: Another cop-out, I’m afraid. No money to be made by guessing. If force, I’d take Count Ceprano for half a point e/w (13.0 at time of writing).

So there you have it, after all that it turns out I'm having just three points on Goodwood tomorrow! One time Goodwood.


Will Walsh said...

I actually agrree about Lush Lashes although the price is gone and I find it hard to trust the disgrace of a man Jim Bolger.I don't think Halfway to Heaven is Group 1 class despite her Irish guineas win and think she may even struggle for a place.

moDtheGod said...

I see my first selection came second. I have to say, I don't think I seriously considered Southpaw Lad at 25-1, which was something of a mistake.

moDtheGod said...

Another second. Ridiculous race, how many times did Lush Lashes try to get out and couldn't? Talk about no luck in running! Boxed in from like 6 furlongs out! So sick, would have easily won with a clear run. O'Brien's luck continues.

Will Walsh said...

That would have to be the worst ride that I have ever seen. Manning is a clown.

moDtheGod said...

I'll have to watch it again but my overriding feeling was "unlucky" rather than "poor ride" - could he have done that much differently?