Tuesday, 5 August 2008

I've got the key, I've got the secret(or do I?)

Ok so until mid June I have found this betting lark very hard work this year.Any decent wins were swiftly followed by a run of losers and I found myself down on the year for bit. Then I found some form in late June and built up a decent bank before managing to make some rash decisions as has been the norm for me and ended up with just a small period for that profit.

Now I'm aware that July and August are the months us punters on the horses have the best chance of winning so made another deposit in Betfair 16 days ago. The last 2 weeks have not only cleared the years loss but netted me a decent bank to play with. I've not decided how to play this yet. I've cut the account so I've level for the year. They key is, has this been an extraordinary run of luck which will soon peter out and lead to a sudden fall (the what comes up must come down theory)? Or is it the case that things have finally fallen into place and I have they key? There is no doubt that the increased bank has actually stopped me tilting when I lose a couple of bets as it means that the hit I take has not such an impact on the balance. I think before my bets were too high a percentage of the account balance.

My question is do I withdraw the bulk of winnings and start again with a small bank OR do I keep a sizeable bank in the hope that this is the key to success? Thoughts/opinions welcomed. I know I can be my own worst enemy at times and I value all your opinions as friends and as guys with good betting knowledge.


moDtheGod said...

I have similar problems. I tilt easy, I get sulky after a run of losers but if I've had a good run, I don't sulk so easily when the bad run strikes.

I also usually find that when I step up a level (be that raising the stakes at poker or increasing the value of the "points" that I play with) I find it difficult and tilt more easily. So with that in mind, if it were me, I wouldn't change anything I were doing. If you HAVE found the key, why change it? If it's not broken, don't fix it. If you haven't found the key and your luck is about to change for the worse, you don't want to be increasing your stakes or playing with money you could have withdrawn to use for real life practical purposes, bills and shit.

I agree that you should take enough out so that you're level, because you'll have the confidence to know that even if you fuck everything up from here on in, you've not really lost anything. You should probably cash out a good sum of your winnings too - you'll be buzzing and less tilty.

I'm sitting on the fence a bit, but a balance between the two is what you should be looking for, in my opinion.

I think you played the Murray/Djokovic final very well, by the way. Keep on like that and you'll not need to worry about losing your touch. Good research presumably led to backing Murray in the first place and then trading out at a super short price to guarantee no loss. Good effort.

Keep on scooping :D

The Kenster said...

I always fantasise about building up a huge bankroll in my poker account, and just playing medium stakes poker, using the huge roll as a cushion with very little risk. What happens in reality is that I make a certain amount and after a certain period of time, my patience/love with poker has fused for the present, and I end up tilting everything away (cashouts or no).
So for me it seems that having a large BR in my account would be a bad thing.
If this sounds like you, then I do not know what the solution is (or else I'd be bloody doing it.)
However, in recent times I've also been inclined to cashout back down to the small bankroll, and what I find is that I just lose my interest/patience/determination/motivation and end up re-depositing later on.
Couple that possibility with the fact that a smaller BR means each bet is as you say at a higher proportion and so more risky, and I'd say you go for the large bankroll.