Sunday, 3 August 2008

Busy on here lately

Keep up the good work.

Was at a loose end this evening so I decided to have a quick scan of the Sunday card. I’ve basically picked all the races with ten or fewer runners as they generally mean less effort is required. Here’s what I came up with:

14:50 at Chester – I would be most interested in Alphabeth, but 5 runs in the last months (including yesterday) is a tad excessive and so she surely won’t run. Even if she does, she’ll be cream crackered. I think Red Baron Dancer is probably going to win, but I have enough doubts in my mind to want to oppose it and will be going with a small e/w bet on Aahaygirl. It will be a tough ask off that weight, but I think it can be done. Of course, this assumes that eight/nine go. If seven or fewer run, I will just leave this one alone as there’s not enough e/w appeal.

Verdict: Aahaygirl is good enough to do Red Baron Dancer. If she weren’t carrying so much weight I’d be backing her to win but as it is, 0.5 points e/w at around 7.5

17:00 at Chester – much like the last one, I’d be more interested in the non runner than any of the others, but as things stand I think Bowder Stone is the way to go. I’m usually wary of horses with many 2s and 3s but no 1s, but I think this one can be excused. It performed well last time out over C&D, coming second to a decent horse with a good draw in My Aunt Fanny, while the time before it was third to two more useful sorts. It should also enjoy the ground. Riqaab may have the Group One entry, but it hasn’t actually done anything yet. Last time out it beat nothing at all of note and it’s not proven to me that it can stay this distance. Another tough ask off top weight, but I think the selection can finally get his nose in front.

Verdict: Bowder Stone, 2pts at around 3.5

15:35 Market Rasen – Little Lu has to be the one here. She just has better form than the Timmy Murphy ride, which is now at an all time high in the weights. Ursis looks to have strong claims but may prefer easier ground and the win last time out was the first for 18 months. Little Lu has 5 wins from 9 and has been well placed, I think this is another good choice of race.

Verdict: Little Lu, 1 point at around 3.05

Edit: I've only just got up, bit later than planned. I've come to place my bets and I'm pretty surprised by what I see. Bowder Stone is short, available now only at 2.85, which I'll probably have to take. Little Lu is at 5.4, which surprises me and Aahaygirl is around 6.6.


moDtheGod said...

Oh dear, I'm having a shocker already. Aahaygirl has drifted out to 16.5 just before the off! Ridiculous!

Little Lu has also continued to drift all day, touching about 6.5, but seems to have come in a bit.

moDtheGod said...

Phew, that massive drift scared me but it's come second, behind Red Baron Dancer. That's what I said would happen so I'm happy with my small bet and small profit. I think it was worth taking the chance, no value in Red Baron Dancer which went off at 5/6.

moDtheGod said...

Little Lu has come in, shame I didn't plough more in at 6.5 :D

I wonder what's been going on all day to make the price vary so much? I mean, looking at the card last night this seemed an obvious choice, but at one point today, there were three horses ahead of it in the market. The SP was 4/1.

moDtheGod said...

Bowder Stone does the job and I'm 2 wins and a place from 2. Scoop!

moDtheGod said...

From 3 even. Meh.