Wednesday, 7 January 2009

Back to betting

I’d like to start my first post of 2009 by offering my congratulations to Derby County. As much as I hate them, beating Manchester United in the League Cup semi final first leg is very impressive. Good luck to them and what a start for Clough Jr.

I had my first bets in an age today and had a decent scoop thanks to odds on favourite River Kirov, who I have seen a bit of lately (I love my job) and he’s looked impressive. He obliged again today, four-timer complete.

I’m not one for backing favourites on the artificial surfaces usually, but tomorrow’s bets will make it three in two days!

I really like Silvanus in the opener at Great Leighs. Full brother to a winner of a 6f Listed Race in Ireland, he has a bit of form on the all weather, with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd from five runs. The win was in better company (over today’s 5f trip) and the second place last time out (nine days ago) was over six furlongs, which may have been asking a little too much, but he wasn’t disgraced, losing only by a neck to a very consistent polytrack sort. Today’s race should be run more to his liking and off the same mark, over what looks to be his preferred trip, I can’t see much beating it. Three points all the way please. I shall be trying to get a bit better than the 2.71 on offer just now, but I can’t see me getting much better.

I also like the looks of Minotaurius (2.55 Great Leighs). Karl Burke’s young horses have a good record when making their second appearance of the season (something I learned last year) and this one turned out for seasonal debut at Wolverhampton on Friday, where it finished second. Although she had no chance with the winner, she was running over 6 furlongs when her best work has been done over the minimum, such as her second place (1/4 length) at Ripon in the Summer, at a class higher. I think it showed, when she tired half a furlong out. Tomorrow she returns to 5f, which appears to be a big plus. My only concern with this one is the pedigree. By Sadler’s Wells, whose progeny doesn’t have great form on the all weather, you’d have to be a bit concerned. That said, there’s not much else to be worried about in the field in terms of breeding, so I’m not THAT bothered. She took to it well enough last time out anyway – one point to win please, assuming I can get the forecast 6/4 or better.

The bad news is that have tipped them both :(


moDtheGod said...

Sweet, Matt Doyle has two-point napped Silvanus! And the price is now 2.3-ish, so I'm glad I got in early.

TheHat said...

Not only did both these horses get turned over, Dom also tipped me some ridic 66/1 shot this afternoon which was ridden after a furlong of a 11f race!

Mountain Man said...

Dom also tipped a rank outsider via text to me today. I wasn't in a position to put any money down; assuming it was the same horse, if so then thank god I avoided !

moDtheGod said...

All I was doing was passing on info from a warm source - that was no tip of mine, else I'd have written about it!

I have to say, I was pissing myself at work today. There's this woman who works in a branch of William Hill near to us who knows a LOT about horses. She was talking to the trainer of this Auctin Belel recently and she rarely bets, I'm told. Apparently, when she does bet, she does well.

Anyway, everyone I know was putting money on it, even I got a few bob e/w on for comedy value. I was properly pissing myself when it was scrubbed along after a furlong and came about 6,000 lengths off the lead.

As for my proper selections, I've been unlucky with my nap. A false start didn't help and in the end it's gone down by about a quarter length to some terrible 11/1 shot. The winner pulled up in it's last race - a five furlong sprint. I will definitely be giving Silvanus another chance, hopefully at a better price next time out.

They steamed into my 1pt bet and it went off big odds on, which makes my bet look alright. It was well beaten by the Richard Fahey newcomer though (12/1!), but no great loss there.

moDtheGod said...

Auction Belle was the donkey, some typo there.

The Kenster said...

did you see the bloody mist at great leighs? ridiculous having races on in those conditions!

my dad put money on some stripey-topped jockey to win at 13/8 and took us out for a curry, so even though I didn't bet it was still a scoop for me.