Tuesday, 27 January 2009

United vs Rovers

Just about to catch my bus for tonight's South Yorkshire derby and I thought I'd leave you with a bit of betting fodder.

United are too good for Rovers, that's for sure. You can currently get 1.8 on the exchanges which looks like value to me. United are unbeaten in nine matches now and we've won five in a row. Rovers form is useful, but the six unbeaten is artificially improved by the draw and replay win over lowly Cheltenham in the cup, though the 0-0 draw with Villa was noteworthy. They won't come to the Lane to dig in though, they'll look to play their attractive, technical but ultimately toothless passing game and that will be their downfall. United play well against teams that like to pass the ball, we struggle to break down sides that dig in. Doncaster play pretty football but have no strikers, illustrated nicely by their record of 19 goals in 27 games, just six at home.

Rovers have serious injury worries too, their goalkeeper is out and they've just secured some young Welsh kid on loan and Brian Stock, their midfield playmaker, is leaving it as late as possible before deciding whether or not he's fit to play.

No, there's no doubt in my mind that United will take all three points and I'm ploughing three points of my own into the 1.8

I have a feeling for 2-1. United struggle to spank weaker sides, we always seem to do enough and then stop. In recent weeks we've gone 2-0 up over Charlton before letting them get one back, we needed them to score before beating them 3-1 in the league match and we've beaten lowly Forest and Norwich by single goal margins. I'm quite sure that Rovers will be up for it, it is a derby after all, and their confidence will be high after the good result with Villa. They will not be disgraced tonight, I just know they haven't got enough to beat us or even get a draw. With United scoring just 1.5 goals at home in the league and Rovers conceding 1.64 a game on the road, I can't see us notching more than two goals and we've picked up a habit of dropping one or two defensive clangers of late, which might provide Rovers with a goal. At 9.4 on the exchanges, I'm tempted.

United to win: 3 points @ 1.8
United 2-1: 1.5 points @ 9.4
United 2-0: 1 point @ 8.4

1 comment:

moDtheGod said...

Oh my god. We were SO bad. We had one of thsoe days where the ball wouldn't sit right and everything we tried failed. The goal was the spawniest goal ever and even though 0-0 would have been fair, my bets would still have lost and it wouldn't have been good enough anyway. Doubly frustrating that results have gone our way.