Wednesday 27 August 2008

Racing

Hi all. It is painfully dull living in this village, roll on October. Despite being totally skint, I’ve done another “fuck it, let’s go racing tomorrow” but basically there’s very little on. Catterick is the closest meet to me, an hour and 45 minutes on the train and then a thirty minute bus ride. Still, gets me out of the house and assuming I don’t find a job by Thursday, the taxpayer will be part funding it anyway!

Before I kick on looking at the ponies, let me say this (I’ll say it now cos I know no cunt will read any further than this). Scott was asking me about Sheffield United’s chances tomorrow – don’t do it boys. There’s history between United and Udders and there’s history between the managers. Blackwell once punched Ternant after being accused of spying at the door of a team talk, when Warnock was in charge. They WILL raise their game, we WILL make changes (I can see 7 or 8 reserves coming in easily) and they did beat us at their place in pre-season. Scott – stop looking at poor value away bets or you will never get rich. Even if we win, 5/4 (Scott’s quote) is no value, it’s just not worth it.

Nag time. I don’t know anything about Catterick and I’ve certainly never been before. Google is my friend however and I’ve discovered that it’s left handed and sharp, so I’ll be trying to avoid gangly, long striding types that like going right handed, basically. Easy, this game. I’ll also be looking to avoid higher drawn horses, as the low numbers have an edge, up to 6 furlongs. Apparently on soft ground over 5f, higher numbers are the way forward, but the forecast going is good, so I’ll ignore that fact.

The opening two races are maidens and if I bet on these at all, it’ll likely be down to a market move. I really hate these types of races, will probably just watch and learn. There was one in the opener that tickled me due to my Indian chef connections, called Call Me Naan and the trainer is in form, but I recently learned that his nags do better on their second time out (backing all his two year olds £1 to win on their second start over the last five seasons would have made you nearly £100) – as I say, it’s going to need a market move.

15:20 - 1m 7f
Sorry to be the favourite backer, but it’s very hard to oppose the top weight and overnight 3.7 shot (Betfair) Let It Be. It’s won three on the spin, two in better company and although it’s up a stone and a half since it’s last win at the grade, the very useful Fromanangle Gillies has been drafted in, 7lb claim and all, which should help offset that. He’s won four of his last ten races, by the way. Mind you, that’s all jumps, he’s little form to speak of as a flat jockey, but he’s obviously capable and that claim will be invaluable.

Verdict: Let It Be - 2pts

15:50 - 7f
Dancing Maite looks to have strong e/w claims at a good price (9.0 Betfair at time of writing) and off a featherweight, the run at Wolverhampton a grade lower than this looks a nice piece of form. This looks a close race on paper and as I can’t choose between the market leaders, I’ll have a small e/w punt. If that price isn’t there in the morning, I’ll likely just watch.

Verdict: Dancing Maite - 0.5 pts e/w

16:20 – 5f
Trappy with a capital ‘T’. Loads look to have chances and I think the safe play seems to be Darcy’s Pride at a decent e/w price (9.6 at the time on Betfair). It’s well drawn, it’s not too high up the weights, it’s won over C&D, at a better grade and off a higher mark. If the price isn’t there, I’ll probably leave it alone. I may even leave it alone anyway.

Verdict: Darcy’s Pride - 0.5 pts e/w

16:50 - 1m 4f
I really liked the idea of China Pink in this one. Mark Prescott’s horses are known for being put in races at two that are far too short before being stepped up to a fairer distance at three, before knocking out a series of quickfire wins. It’s last was a touch too much and I feel this race is there for the winning. When he’s only sending one horse, you have to like it. BUT, it’s listed as doubtful by the RP and that means it’s probably withdrawn already. Gah! In her absence, I will have to go with Sabancaya. The overnight favourite looks like it has a chance in this weak race, but it’s never won at this distance and is 7lbs worse off than it’s last victory. Two starts ago it ran at this grade and off a lower weight and was beaten a length by nothing special. Sabancaya is still a maiden but has run quite well at a better grade and lost last time out by a length and a half to a horse that went on to cut up a better class of race by 11 lengths and is only marked up 2lbs for that effort.

Verdict: Sabancaya - 2pts

17:20 - 6f
Winthorpe made initial appeal as it’s last win (May) was only by a head, to a horse that’s done okay at a better grade than this but it’s getting on a bit now and hasn’t won a grade 5 since 2003. Turn Me On seems a consistent sort but has no 6f form to speak of, it’s only decent result was losing by not much last year, to nothing special at all. Mandalieu is fancied by ATR but I can’t get on with that view at all, it’s a troublesome ride who won last time out at a grade lower, but didn’t really beat that much. Guest Connections seems the pick of this close contest, with a plum stall #1 draw, off a career low mark, three wins over the minimum trip this summer and a return to 6f sure to suit. It’s also got some solid 6f form, winning a class 4 race (albeit in 2006) with three 2nds over 6f this year alone.

Verdict: Guest Connections - 2pts

10 comments:

TheHat said...

lol, 1-0 Huddersfield at HT

TheHat said...

fuck you Dom

TheHat said...

Winner in the 3.20 @ 5/1 - nice work. Pity you prob blew all your winnings on the other useless pieces of shit you picked out!

moDtheGod said...

Behave, our reserves were awful tonight and we were lucky. If you'd have backed us at that price and we'd won, it'd still be a horrendous bet!

Quick review of my day.

0.5pts e/w on Kheleyf's Silver @ 5/1; 2nd, return 1pt

2pts win on Chosen One @ 4/1 (read about this on ATR on the bus in!); 1st, return 10pts

2 pts win on Let It Be @ 7/2 (thought it would only get shorter so took it quickly, it went as big as 11/2 on track, sick!); 1st, return 9pts

0.5 pts e/w on Dancing Maite @ 8/; 4th by a short head! Return 0pts

0.5 pts e/w Darcy's Pride @ 10/1; ran out of running room and was completely blocked, could have been in the money, unlucky. Return 0pts

2pts Sabancaya @ 7/2; disappointing 4th (I thought it was third, just read it was 4th by a SH). The winner looked useful, get it in the notebook chaps

4pts Guest Connections @ 5/1; was only goign to go for 2 points as blogged, but I was up, feeling cocky and this was my nap so I thought "fuck it, in big". Ridiculous, an absolutely horrendous run to come 10/11th. That'll teach me. Return 0pts.

Staked: 13pts
Returned: 20pts

Could have all been so different had I not got cocky at the end and if Darcy's Pride hadn't been denied a clear run. Still, can't complain with that, had a good day out, chalked another course off my "to visit" list and it didn't cost me anything!

moDtheGod said...

Worth noting as well that Catterick Village is really, really nice. Sort of place I can see myself living when I'm getting on and am retired. Really quiet, out of the way, no fucking chavs boozing on park benches. I got on the smallest bus ever to get there and all the seats were taken, but no more. Same on the way back. I swear, there was hardly anybody there, it was brilliant!

Also a mention for the Nag's Head in Darlington. Thoroughly enjoyable fayre, a proper boozer. Loads of seating, couple of puggies, two drunks dancing to the music at 14:00 and what a selection it was! A couple of shit dance tracks but mostly awesome retro tunes. D.I.S.C.O.! And the pièce de résistance? Magnet, on tap. Fucking magic.

TheHat said...

lol @ you adding in the two winners

TheHat said...

and why would it be a horrendous bet?

surely it's a good bet cos it won, no?

Mountain Man said...

lol @ Catterick village being nice ! It's not all that nice of a Friday / Saturday night when all the squadies at the biggest Army base in England go out on the lash, pull your bird, smack you in the nose and spew on your back !

moDtheGod said...

What are you talking about "adding in the two winners"? I only HAD two winners, one was blogged about and the other I read about on ATR and backed as a result.

Hugh Taylor knows he stuff, he's been hitting loads of winners lately, especially with the two year olds.

It would be a horrendous bet because there was no value. It would be the sort of bet you make on a regular basis.

moDtheGod said...

I wouldn't have thought the squaddies would have gone out in the village, seeing as there's like two pubs.

I'd just have to stay in at the weekend then, like I pretty much do anyway do to excessive chav action.