Tuesday, 28 July 2009
Hove Greyhounds on Sky Sports Tonight
I'm really looking forward to tonight's greyhound action on Sky Sports tonight. Hopefully I can pick a few winners too. I really want to bet on every race and I've picked something for every race but it's just not the profitable thing to do so I've limited myself to only 3 selections today.
8:15 - T5 Loyal Rebel 11/2
Ballymac Well is the short priced favourite in this race at 8/13 but I think Loyal Rebel represents good value in this race. It was two lengths down on Ballymac Well last week but I think it can improve on it's second look at the track. Loyal Rebel will get a nice run as the only middle seed in the race whereas Ballymac Well could see trouble if it doesn't get a flyer!
8:50 - T3 Special Liberty 2/1 NB
A repeat of last week's run would see Special Liberty have 3-4 lengths on anything else on this race. He got a clear run that day and I don't see any reason why that won't happen again as traps one and two don't pack much early. Really though it was going to be 5/4ish when I checked the prices.
9:10 - T6 Gabba Gabba Hey 7/2 NAP
Don't expect to see GGH pinging the lids but this thing will be finishing like a train and is my bet of the night. Brimardon Star is the favourite at about 5/2 and is a dog I like but without doubt GGH can win here. Slight negative in that it has had a reasonably long lay off but Gabba broke the track record over a similar distance at Belle Vue only 3 runs ago.
GL all,
Scott
Glorious Goodwood
The contest will feature a mouth watering rematch between the July Cup second and third, Sir Michael Stoute’s Main Aim and the South African talent J J The Jet Plane. As ever, I’ve tried to come at it from a trends point of view, though it is important to note that this race has only been contested nine times, so the trends may not be completely reliable anyway.
The strongest trend is related to the distance, as eight times out of nine, the winner had already scored over 7f. The market trends send out a mixed message, as only one favourite has won, yet seven times out of nine the winner has come from the front three in the betting, suggesting we shouldn’t be looking too far away from the main players, even if heading the betting appears to be a negative.
The lowest official rating of a winner to date is 108, with the next lowest at 110. I’m quite happy to rule out Express Wish and Regal Parade based on their 107 ratings and I’m crossing off Finjaan, as the colt is yet to score over 7f.
One trend I expected to crop up, failed to materialise – only two winners had previously won over Goodwood’s quirky undulations and that figure includes Nayyir, who won the race back to back in 2002 and 2003. Last time out form doesn’t appear hugely important either, with only three from nine scoring on their previous outing.
All previous winners have been aged three to five, so it doesn’t bode well for the older horses, allowing me to rule out the six year olds (Balthazaar’s Gift and Asset, who appears unlikely to run anyway).
The only other thing I spotted, was that six of the nine had previously won a Group race. I’m ruling out Dream Eater based on that, as the grey doesn’t look classy enough to win today.
This whittles the field down to the front three in the market, which fits quite well with the aforementioned market trends and means I’m simply going to have to oppose the favourite, Main Aim. Stoute’s team are in good form, as displayed by the recent 1-2-3 finish in the King George and Main Aim did beat JJTJP (pictured, above) in the July Cup by half a length, but I think the Stoute colt gets 6f better than JJTJP and the return to 7f is going to favour the South African, who was doing his best work that day in the closing stages. These two should finish ahead of Ouqba on the form at least, so I’ll be backing J J The Jet Plane at a shade over 4/1 on the exchanges.
15:25 Goodwood
J J The Jet Plane
1 pt @ 4/1 (Sporting Bet)
Sunday, 26 July 2009
Sunday @ Hove
12.42 - T6 Nearest The Jack 3/1 NAP - 4th slow away, and bumped at 1st, blah
12.58 - T6 Rylance Classic 3/1 - NR
1.27 - T5 Fivestar Motel 3/1 - 2nd blah
1.44 - T5 English Rose 7/2 - shoot me
2.12 - T1 Quick Temper 5/2
I've made NTJ my main selection today as I think the race is set up perfect. T3 has unbelievable early pace and should deny the inside runners a decent run but it never gets the trip. The selection, T6, should break on at least level terms with the rest and has the recent times to beat anything in this.
GL all,
Scott
Saturday, 25 July 2009
Saturday
Good write up on the King George from Will below. I'll take your advice and have some on Conduit but 2/1 too short for a single for me so going to stick it in some combos with this lot below. No early prices, so prices are just RP predictions....
Crayford 12.39 - T1 Glenthorn Lass 7/2
Crayford 12.57 - T5 Newlawn Chloe 5/2 - WON
Romford 12.17 - T5 Fridays Jewel 5/2
Romford 1.04 - T6 Slieve Rain 9/2
Romford 1.49 - T3 Compliance Spark 5/2 - WON
GL all,
Scott
EDIT: 9 or 10 days into the weight loss prop bet. This is the healthiest I've felt for a long time. Still fat but I've probably dropped a pound or two. I'm getting mixed reports about the other two - I think they are trying to bluff me with reports of pizza and ice cream eating whereas others are saying they are looking slimmer. Going to push on this week and hopefully lose 3 or 4 pounds total.
Friday, 24 July 2009
King George Preview
The betting is headed by one of a trio of runners for Sir Michael Stoute, Conduit. This horse improved rapidly towards the backend of last year and graduated from an early season Epsom handicap win to a famous St Leger and Breeders Cup double. He posted a solid comeback run behind Cima de Triomphe at Sandown and then followed this up with another solid run when 3rd to Sea the Stars in the Eclipse. There is nothing of the calibre of Sea the Stars today and he looks a worthy favourite to follow in the footsteps of the owners Golan and claim this prize.
The same stable is also responsible for the second favourite in the shape of 2008 Epsom Derby runner up Tartan Bearer. This one scraped home on his seasonable reappearance before a highly creditable showing when third to Vision D’etat at Ascot. He looks sure to benefit for the step back up in trip but he doesn’t have a great win ratio and appears to lack the top class form normally required to win this race.
The Stoute trio is completed by Ask. He proved a revelation when stepped up to staying distances in the Yorkshire Cup back in May and proved the step back to 1m4f to be of no concern when getting the better of Youmzain and Look here in a classic Coronation Cup finish. The form of that race is already looking suspect though with both the aforementioned running poor races in their subsequent outings and prior to his Epsom win he had looked out of his depth at Group 1 Level.
Look Here was behind Ask at Epsom but that was her comeback run and improvement would be expected. That was not the case at the Curragh though where she ran a poor race, admittedly on bad ground, in the Pretty Polly. The return to better ground and step back up in trip will likely help her but it is a tall order for a filly or mare to win this race.
Aidan O’Brien took this prize last year and attempts to follow up with Golden Sword and Frozen Fire. Golden Sword was a shock winner at Chester and has since ran good races in the English and Irish Derby. He already looks exposed though and it is concerning to see his stablemate Masterofthehorse whose form ties in closely with him has been sold from the stable this week. At the current price he looks very short for a horse who has won just 2 out of 8 races contested. The other stable runner Frozen Fire won last years Irish Derby in fine style but has shown little form of note since. If he bounced back his best he has the potential to trouble the market leaders but he doesn’t look a horse to have much faith in and therefore would not be one to place the kids inheritance on.
The other runners all look out of their depth and it would be a massive surprise to see them troubling the judge.
This does look a fine opportunity for Conduit to add a third group one to his trophy cabinet. After writing this one off with no chance of winning last years St Leger he has proved me wrong and his Breeders Cup win showed him to be a colt of the highest order. Whilst he was put in his place in the Eclipse that was over a trip short of his best and back to his optimum trip it would be no surprise to see him land this famous prize. Of those at bigger prices it may be worth giving Frozen Fire one last chance in the hope he can recover his early 3 year old form. For the layers out there I would suggest a lay of Golden Sword in the place market.
Thursday, 23 July 2009
Quiet Month (Again !)
It's not very often I look camp, so I thought I would treat you to this lovely photo !!!
Saturday, 18 July 2009
Wednesday, 15 July 2009
moDtheGod's Midlands Meanderings
Sadly, I had worked from 9.00 until 21.30 yesterday, and in a different shop to usual, so my head was a little bit fried and I did exactly zero form studying when I got home, opting to keep stakes to the minimum and simply enjoy the day out. Sadly, this was reflected in my betting performance, as I didn’t find a single winner. I only had two e/w bets place, at 9/1 and 11/2.
I did a little placepot as an interest bet; 24 ten pence lines and the dividend was £310-ish. Frustratingly, the only race I didn’t get any selections to place in was the fifth, where one of my picks came fourth by a length. Had that one snatched third (or had it remained first four for the place – quite a lot of horses pulled out) I’d have had four lines up and assuming a similar dividend I’d have been scooping about £130 for my £2.40 outlay. Gah!
The course itself is great. It is literally right next to the train station, which is perfect for me; no fannying about with shuttle buses and it’s about three minutes in all, from stepping off the train to the turnstiles. I paid for the Grandstand (£16) which was more than adequate for me, with access to the winners enclosure and good views of the final furlong, whilst still being able to walk up the grass to get up close to the fences. The bars were big and spacious and I was served quickly, same for the food, but that was grotesquely overpriced. The beer wasn’t cheap at £3.20 for John Smiths, but that’s no different than any other track and as the meeting was Beer Festival themed, there were quality real ales on sale in the beer tent at three quid a pop, which is actually not bad at all. I rather enjoyed Old Speckled Hen and Greene King IPA. The Premier Enclosure didn’t look as though it offered much else, but then it was only £4 dearer to get in. The cheap seats looked alright; a large area in the centre, which looked as though it offered similar views, but for just £8, though it didn’t seem from where I was to have much in the way of catering or betting facilities.
Unlike some courses, I did have access to a cash machine (take note, silly Beverley people) and the only negative I could find, was unfortunately quite a sizeable one – no big screen! What use is it at a National Hunt venue, when you can only see the last few furlongs? You can’t see how your horses are jumping for the vast majority of each race! I enjoyed the AW meeting at Southwell despite the absence of a screen, but you can get away with it in a five furlong sprint. That said, I’d still score Uttoxeter quite highly and I will try and get back in future, probably for the big meeting, the Midlands National in March.
Got to see some real heroes of mine in action today, in the shape of A P McCoy and Timmy Murphy, neither of whom enjoyed any success. The champion jockey actually had five rides today and failed to fire in a winner. What a top bloke though, after getting beat on the hot favourite in the last, rounding off a dismal meeting for him, he found time to banter with a couple of lasses and pose for a picture. Had any of you lot been with me, I'd have gone and pestered him for a picture too, he's a legend. Noone to take my pic :(
I’m absolutely shattered as I didn’t get a proper lie in today and I've worked the last seven days in a row. I’ve also been on my feet all day today and could really use some sleep. However, there’s racing at Leicester tomorrow and I can get there direct from Chesterfield, in just 45 minutes. Honestly I’m really tempted and if I don’t oversleep, I think I’ll probably go. Once again I’ve studied no form, as I haven’t had chance, but it’ll be another decent day out!
Here’s another of my little videos, this time of some random Uttoxeter stuffs.
Good luck to those competing in the weight loss prop. Take it easy folks.
The Three Fatties: Prop Bet
Details
Start Date: 15/07/09
Finish Date: 01/08/09
Rules: Person who loses the biggest percentage of their body weight wins. Winner receives £25 from each of the two losers.
Open Golf
David Toms is my main pick for this year's Open, starting at Turnberry tomorrow. He's been in very decent form this season and despite mixed form over the years in the Open I expect him to go well.
The rough at Turnberry looks horrendous and accuracy off the tee is going to be essential - Toms is known for his straight driving and infact leads the USPGA Driving Accuracy stats for 2009 by a decent bit. He's also in the top 5 for scoring average this year too and is definately in form with 7 top 10s. The world number 30 can go well at a very decent price and is available at 130 on Betfair atm, I've asked for a little bigger.
Steve Stricker is my 2nd biggest bet and is available at 55 on Betfair as I type. I've also had a nibble on the following:
Adam Scott @ 75
Camilo Villegas @ 90
Andres Romero @ 180
Miguel-Angel Jimenez @ 230
Luke Donald @ 120
Pablo Larranzabal @ 880
GL all,
Scott
Tuesday, 14 July 2009
Kenny's Cash Game
Mr Will Walsh dealing after bustoing himself early
New Scoop Trooper Gav displaying a fine skin head
Game started at 8pm, with Magicman sleeping by 9
Iain was delighted to see that Gav Lee was in attendance
The 4 Scoop Troop Scots
Mugs
I probably just won a pot v. Gav
Scoop Trooper Kenny
Someone gave Iain the remote
Saturday, 11 July 2009
UFC 100
I've been looking forward to this ever since the matches were announced and it should be an amazing night of MMA. There was a ridiculous fiasco where UFC didn't announce where it would be shown until Thursday. Setanta went bust last month so they needed a new place to show it and they announced it would be on Channel 433 on Sky aswell as live on uk.ufc.com. I was initially worried about this because 433 is an old Setanta Racing channel but it seems it is free to all Sky subscibers. Will hopefully be watching this at Ken's house whilst crushing the home game.
Onto the fights, Heavyweight Champ Brock Lesnar (4/9 Various) of WWE fame faces off in a rematch against Frank Mir (21/10 Stan James). Brock's debut in the UFC, in only his second MMA fight, ended with him tapping out to a Mir leg lock. This was only after the ref, Mazzagatti, made a ridiculous error in standing them up when Brock was dominating on the ground claiming that Brock was hitting to the back of the head. No warning, no fuck all - he then deducted a point.
Anyway, I expect Brock Lesnar to make no mistakes this time and should stop Mir in the first couple of rounds - I dislike Mir, he is far too smug and holds onto his submissions for too long so I hope he gets his face filled in. Price is too short for me though, so doubt I'll have any action on this, apart from maybe a touch on Brock to win in the 2nd round @ 5/1 with Sky.
The co-main event sees George St-Pierre (4/11 BSQ) defend his Welterweight title against the Pit Bull, Thiago Alves (13/5 Stan James). This could be fight of the night, this could be a war, this could be anything! I've no real idea of how this is going to pan out but I do know Alves shouldn't be a 13/5 shot in this fight. Alves can pull off the shocker and the supreme value is @ SportingBet where Alves to win in R1 is 16/1, it's the same price for R2 and R3 whereas rounds 4 and 5 are 18/1. Take your pick for a gamble imo.
The other main fight sees the no.1 British fighter Michael "The Count" Bisping (9/5 Stan James) take on Hall of Famer Dan Henderson (8/15 Betfred). These two were the coaches on the most recent Ultimate Fighter where Bisping's UK fighters came out on top. Bisping can outlast Henderson in this fight and will most likely win on points. Henderson is still top quality but he's nearing his 40s and if Bisping can avoid the takedowns and right hand then he should win comfortably. The price is coming in, he was c.9/4 earlier in the week and will go off about 6/4. Bisping on points is 9/4 @ Skybet.
Also, on the main card is Akiyama v. Belcher. This is Akiyama's first UFC fight and although he is very talented I'm not sure how he'll cope here so I think Belcher has some value about him @ 9/4 with Skybet.
Selections
Brock Lesnar to win in the 2nd Round
5/1 SkyBet
Thiago Alves to win in the 1st Round
16/1 SportingBet
Thiago Alves to win in the 3rd Round
16/1 SkyBet
Michael Bisping to win on points
9/4 SkyBet
Alan Belcher to win
9/4 SkyBet
GL all,
Scott
Thursday, 9 July 2009
1st win in on the board, and casino action
Tuesday, 7 July 2009
Doggy
That is all.
Scott
Saturday, 4 July 2009
1st Month, didnt start as i wanted :(
So its been a telling time and things just were not going to plan, so after a long month I was looking at a deficit of around $900 upwards. Although most of this would be covered by the whopping amount of rake its still not the best situation to be in. So 2 days before end of month I decide to start playing a lot more MTTs instead of just playing away on heads up to try and get a nice cash on the board. So first night I played 5 fairly smallish $20 or so buy in tourneys and cash in 3 bubble one and donk out early in one of them with AK vs the wonderful 910 which was re re raised pre lol. Flop came 768 gg gav. Not exactly the best but $100 profit for the day isn’t really that bad.
So its last day of the month and same again I decide to crack on with the tourneys, cash in a few again but seem to be getting stuck making that ft and 13th and 14th respectively just isn’t going to do the trick. last tourney of the night was the $10 short handed 3.5k gar. Played well and got 3 handed and found my A8 on a A84 flop busted by Ak with a K on the river. Guy slow played and I got my chips in miles ahead $337 cash not so bad but 2nd was $633 and 1st $1050 so was fairly gutted.
So it would seem things were starting to pickup, so start of the month I decide to just crack on with STTs and over 2 days I’m up around $300 which isn’t bad at all. My graph on sharkscope is quite hilarious to be honest (JuanKoff,Ipoker) if anyone’s interested. Starting to get the money back which Is always good. I’m starting to feel a lot more confident playing and its definitely showing as I’m going far in everything I’m playing, just need to get over that last hurdle and pick up a nice win.
So today/yesterday now whilst I’m typing this, I decide to play a sat to the $100k $100 rebuy on ipoker. Things go well and me and budge (3betmybluff) get a ticket. Decide to have a chilled day and watch the tennis. Until Johnny Spiers decides to ask me to finish a tournament on Ladbrokes for him as he was going to the golf. Since there was only 6 from 130or so left he nicely offers me 75/25.I gladly accept and go on to boss the final table and win him a nice 213 Euros, netting myself and easy £50.So nice little confidence boost for the 100k at 8pm which was a fair while away.
So it was 8pm and the $100 rebuy just started, planned to play it like a freeze out and only played AK in first hour and cos that was the only thing I got. So it gets to the break and I go down stairs for a drink. I come back up and find myself with 1500 chips more than I left with so I check my balance and its $100 short. Im obviously raging at this as it seems ive now just taken a rebuy on the last hand for 1500 chips where as if I actually wanted one I would have just got an add on for 2000 chips. Being highly annoyed I get straight onto live chat and a go crazy to be told sorry we cant do anything please contact your affiliate manager so ^*%$ them. I nurse my relatively low 2740 stack to a nice 1k stack just before the 2nd hour mark loooooooooooool. I then find AQ and shove for my 1010 and I’m snapped 2 behind me from Q9 and no one else calls, I’m now up to 2.5k and I’m still in the game, after the break I find myself on the bb with Kd5d and astonished to find 6 callers and I’m getting to see a free flop. It comes down Ad2d9h and the muppet who had Q9 decides to bet out pot, I’m now prepared to take my gamble to be honest and after the others fold I stick my stack in, he snaps me again with Jd10d and K hi ends up winning lol. So after a while its now getting close to bubble time and we have a few guys on Mikogo (Scott,Budge,Adam,Johnny) having a nice bit of banter. To be honest I don’t know how I even got this far without having any hands throughout the whole thing. A few nice bets around the bubble gets me up to a nice stack of 24k to then be pegged back with 88 vs 1010 to go back to 16k. I fold for abit and ive now made the top 50 for a gar $450 return. To cut long story short I end up shipping my 13k stack in with 44 utg to be re raised by JQ and then re shoved from JJ no miracle for me and its out the tournament in 37th place for $600 bit gutted but from having 600 chips at one point before my AQ all in I really cant complain. Things looking up for this month and I’m now in a nice bit of profit and have a bit to work on now.
Big one coming J
Gav
Saturday's Gambling
I'll post my selections on here so if anyone is bored sitting at home they can lose/win a few pennies backing these. Check the video I've attached at the bottom for some vintage greyhound action.
Crayford
10:38 - T5 Tourna Abbey
11:07 - T5 Brick
11:23 - T3 Lisnafulla Angie
12:24 - T3 Trumpers Dubh
12:39 - T4 Black Sensation
12:57 - T4 Margan Lassy
1:58 - T6 Lordsbury Tenor
Romford
11:58 - T3 Pantone Hepburn
12:17 - T3 Archers Satin
1:04 - T3 Ivy Knows
Here is a an amazing video of Scurlogue Champ(T6) doing what he does best. Unbelievable performance.....
GL all
Scott
Thursday, 2 July 2009
Dogs Die In Hot Cars
Anyway, the story reminded me of one of my favourite bands. 'Dogs Die In Hot Cars' come from St Andrews and never made it big, they had a couple of songs in the top 40. They only released one album I believe and split in 2007. I'll attach one of their songs and if you like it I highly recommend their album 'Please Describe Yourself' - you can probably pick it up for a couple of quid. Or download Spotify and listen to them on there.
Hmmmmmm, just searched for them on youtube and not much there tbh - here is a video of some twat mining over one of their songs, listen and ignore the video.....
Scott