Teach Me!!!!

Was gutted that I couldn't stay in tonight to watch Derby and BGT final but it was football team's POTY night out - didn't win anything (farce)!!!

So Kinda Ready won!!! WTF?

Obviously upset Farloe Reason didn't win but was delighted with the run I got. I really feel I can crush the shorter comps over 3 or 4 rounds. Will text me to tell me Love Lynx came 2nd - a decent 25/1 shot?

Excuse any errors in this post - I'm drunk and have bee going back over any errors I spot!

Anyway, the title of this thread is a plea for knowledge. I backed at Julian Smith for BGT at about an average of 40/1 for a measly £10 and after he gets through his semi-final he was like 12/1 at the very most. Can I make guaranteed good money here? Should I back for more initially in cases where it is obvious the price is going to drop like this. This was a super clear case imo. I really can't understand trading on Betfair atm and really need to learn - especially for the greyhound comps.

Thanks guys,

Scott

Blue Square Greyhound Derby 2009 Final

The final of this month long competition takes place at 10:12 Saturday night at Wimbledon. I'm delighted to have picked something which has made it's way to the final in Farloe Reason. This is one of my favourite dogs and after backing it for the Scottish Derby where it got unlucky stuck in T5 - I said after that I'd be looking to back it for this. I advised at 33/1 antepost and it has traded as short as 4/1. It has a real tough task in the final but I'd be delighted to see it win.

It's an incredible final, with the line up being:

1. Fear Zafonic 3/1
2. Ballymac Ruso 11/4
3. Farloe Reason 7/1
4. Glenard Sunrise 10/1
5. Kinda Ready 25/1
6. Wise Thought 11/4

Fear Zafonic has got it's coveted one box and despite never really setting the world alight so far it obviously has a great chance if getting on the bunny from trap one. FZ has a real chance but Ballymac Ruso has shown phenomenal early pace in the quarters and semis and a repeat of that signals nothing but a win imo.
A dream scenario sees FZ and BR clashing at the rails and Farloe Reason showing good pace through the middle. I'm not optimistic, especially as Glenard Sunrise shows pace up and led Farloe in semis. Kinda Ready has no chance of winning but if there is trouble can run on. Wise Thought is a danger and should get a sweet run out wide and can certainly win.

If I was forced to bet on this race I'd back Ballymac Ruso simply because a repeat of the performances of the last two rounds would mean he wins, but of course this isn't guaranteed. However, I won't be backing anything and will simply be watching with hope that Farloe Reason can pull it out the bag.

I'm delighted with the 25/1 bet on Love Lynx to win the BSQ Hurdle and it's got a great chance in the final which is also on Saturday.

In other news, I've backed Julian Smith (he plays some instrument) to win Britain's Got Talent at about 35/1 and after winning his semi-final yesterday can be backed as low as 10/1. Would be an awesome Saturday if I pulled off the double.

GL all

Scott

A day off!

As I've got today off, I thought I'd have a look at going racing. Frustratingly, both meetings in the North are evening meetings, which means I've no way of getting back should I go, as I'm reliant on public transport. Why do they do that ffs, surely it's common sense to have an afternoon and an evening meeting? Sigh. Looks like I won't be going racing for a while then.

Anyway, I've had a productive day so far, getting a much needed haircut and winning the 2,000 Guineas on G1 Jockey (love this game so much, into my 7th season now and am scooping more than AP McCoy and Ryan Moore put together). I've also had a few little bets to amuse me during the day:

Value nibbles:

Alarazi - 16:00 Lingfield- 1/4pt e/w
Lord Theo - 17:00 Lingfield - 1/2pt e/w
Suailce - 20:00 Leopardstown - 1/4pt e/w
Clopf - 21:00 Leopardstown - 1/4pt e/w

Stronger fancies:

Royal Executioner - 16:30 Lingfield - 2pts win
Desperate Dan - 16:40 Yarmouth - 1.5pts win
Mizen Raven - 19:25 Wetherby - 2pts win
Cadre - 20:50 Sandown - 1pt win

I think Scott's been busy of late, but I hope he gets chance to properly preview the Blue Square Greyhound Derby final, which is to be held at 22:12 on Saturday, as I've thoroughly enjoyed reading his stuff on this particular event and I've had great fun following it. We've got one of Charlie Lister's two in the final, Farloe Reason (T3), available at 7/1 from Ladbrokes. It should be an interesting final, as ours has already beaten the favourite (Ballymac Ruso) in one of the heats and although that form has since been reversed, I think I'm right in saying that ours found a bit of trouble in that race. As I know diddly about the dogs, I'll leave the previews to Campbell.

The least said about the Play-Off final, the better. Our fans were there in number and we had great fun in the lead up. You can tell Burnley aren't used to big matches are their fans didn't have a clue about how things worked. They were all rocking up late and trying to get in the pubs we'd laid claim to. Retards. Anyway, once in the ground, we couldn't get any atmosphere going as all the usual Kop nutters were split up and there seemed to be a lot of folk just happy to sit in silence. Very frustrating, as the one song wonders in claret and blue constantly outsang us.

As for the side, standard Sheffield United freezing on the big occassion. Craig Beattie is appalling, I just can't believe how bad he is. We definitely missed Henderson and we still need a genuine left winger and a creative midfielder. With the parachute payments now finished, I can see a big sale (possibly Naughton) and general tightening of belts and barring some sort of miracle, we'll probably be flirting with the play-offs and finish around 8th.

Will and Kenny - I've only just realised, Hamilton is a bloody evening meeting. I'd still be up for going, but I dunno how it would affect your plans. Last race is at 21.10 and there are no trains from back Hamilton West to Dundee. We could however get a train to Glasgow (20 minutes) then the Megabus at 23.00, but we'd not be getting to Dundee until 00:45. I'm totally okay with that (casino!) but I dunno what plans you'd have with work and stuff. Let me know.

Take it easy folks.

The £200-£???? Challenge

OK so I have struggled for a bit of discipline recently so decided it would be a good idea to start afresh with a £200 bank and document all bets on here. I won't be posting each bet before it happens but will blog once or twice a week with a list of bets placed that week and wins/losses. The aim is to bet no more than 10% of the bank on anyone event/race. If the bank increases then so do my bets in other words, likewise if the bank diminishes I won't be wiped out as 10% becomes less and less. I'm also hoping this exercise will help me review where I am winning and where I am losing. something I really need to focus on more.

Weekend Action

Got a massively busy weekend lined up so thought I'd post now. Tomorrow I managed to get the day off work so I can play UFC Undisputed on the PS3. I'm hopeful that the girlfriend will take me up to Tesco at midnight to make the purchase. Played the demo and looks like it is going to be classic. Saturday I have an important semi-final with my amateur football team and on Sunday I have an even more important final with my other team. Could be an epic weekend. We'll see.



Tuesday night's greyhound action on Sky Sports was magnificent and I hope the next two Saturdays are the same. Despite my 10/1 tip not coming in I had my biggest bet on the 5/2 selection which came home with a bit to spare. Happy days.

My outright bets for the Greyhound Derby are looking sweet and it's good that Dom, who has no real interest in dogs, has followed me in. He saw that I was in decent form and came along for the ride. Even if we end up without a payday at least we've got a decent whack for our buck. It's semi-final night on Saturday and we have Farloe Reason (advised @ 33/1) and Jogadusc Ace (@ 125/1) from my pre-1st round bets as well as Love Mac who I advised to add after the 2nd round @ 100/1. So with a quarter of the field I'm more than happy. I'm confident we can get two in the final and certain Farloe Reason will be there after an awesome QF performance where he chased home Ballymac Ruso who showed freakishly fast early pace.

There is a host of good races at Wimbledon (again live on SS) and some decent betting opportunities. My main bet will be on T4 Drumna Willow in the 7.55. He looks plotted up for a clear run from the middle with the other middle runner in T3 moving left. Kenny's favourite Kryptonite is favourite in this but has been far from impressive in recent races. Drumna Willow should get a nice run and scoop us some cash. Currently available at a juicy 4/1 with BSQ.

I like Ninja Jamie in the 8.10 too but is far too short for me at 10/11. Found a good value selection in the 8.40 hurdles race in Cats My Boy who could be away and gone before the others have had a chance to think and at 8/1 represents valuuuuuuue. You will probably get a massive price on Betfair before the race. My other bet for the night will be on Little Boy in the 8.55 at a measly 6/4. I think it's a good 6/4 shot though.

Sorry if this post is dragging on but I want to get all my bets for the weekend into this. I've had a tickle on the 25/1 about Love Lynx in the Blue Square Champion Hurdle which starts Saturday and finishes on Derby final night. He should make the final comfortably behind Platinumlancelot and in the final I think he'll be drawn well as a middle seed with Platinum and the aforementioned Little Boy looking evenly matched on the rails. The 25/1 with William Hill is a great price for a two round competition.



Finally I'll end with my thoughts on UFC 98 which goes off at 3am Sunday morning. The main event is for the Light Heavyweight title between Machida and champ Rashad Evans. Both are undefeated and I must admit to initially fancying Machida but with 7/4 being offered by Stan James on an even money shot in Evans I had to get involved. Slightly better at 2.8 on Betfair currently but I wanted some multiple action because Matt Serra has been priced up at a ridiculous 11/5 - I'll have some of that. I don't really like Matt Hughes and after reading his book that opinion hasn't changed. Both fighters are perhaps past their prime and this fight may be a borefest but Serra can definately win and isn't an 11/5 shot. Add in Chael Sonnen at 31/20 for some 3 doubles and a treble.

Weekend Selections

7.55 Wimbledon Saturday
T4 Drumna Willow @ 4/1 BSQ

8.40 Wimbledon Saturday
T5 Cats My Boy @ 8/1 BSQ

8.55 Wimbledon Saturday
T2 Little Boy @ 6/4 BSQ

Blue Square Champion Hurdle
Love Lynx @ 25/1 WH

UFC 98
Rashad Evans to beat Lyoto Machida @ 7/4 Stan James
Matt Serra to beat Matt Hughes @ 11/5 Stan James
Chael Sonnen to beat Dan Miller @ 31/20 Stan James

GL all

Scott

10/1? Orly

As I said in my previous post, Heat 3 of tonight's Greyhound Derby is full of 6 real class dogs and would befit the final itself. It features 3 Charlie Lister dogs including antepost favourite Fear Zafonic as well as Farloe Reason and puppy Bandicoot Tipoki. Shelbourne Aston, Ballymac Ruso and Greenwell River complete the line up.

The interesting aspect of the race is that traps 1 to 5 are all railers with Greenwell River a mid-runner in T6. Greenwell River is available at a huge 10/1 with Will Hills and if you forgive his last run which was horrific then there is no reason why he can't win this. There is a massive chance of trouble on the inner with Fear Zafonic diving for the rails from T3 but Farloe Reason in T1 and Bandicoot Tipoki in T2 are no slouches out the traps and I don't see Fear Zafonic getting it his own way there. Shelbourne Aston never breaks fast so if Greenwell River can clear T5 Ballymac Ruso then a clear run should be available and we know he is a fast dog after running 28.61 in round 2. This is super value in my opinion and you might even get 12ish on Betfair nearer the off.

Picked out a few other bets for tonight:

8.10 Wimbledon
T6 Centaur Decree @ 8/1

8.30 Wimbledon
T6 Brimardon Star @ 5/2

9.05 Wimbledon
T1 Cabra Fly @ 3/1


GL, let's hope my antepost selections all get through!!!

Scott

York Review

I really do like York. I’ve been to a few racing venues now, including Cheltenham and although the meeting there was excellent, it lacked a certain something when compared with the Knavesmire’s fayre.

My day was a little soured by my health – I’ve not been well and it peaked on Thursday; had the trains and tickets not been pre-booked, I’d have definitely stayed in bed. That said, I did still have fun and it was good seeing Tim again.

From a betting point of view, I didn’t have a great day. It didn’t help that I’d worked nine days on the spin and I’d had little time to study and it helped even less that I really fancied Crystal Capella but was too busy drinking to bet (I’d have had a small profit if I’d got that on) but I finished slightly down, including my antepost bet in the Dante. I did see the lovely Julie Williams again though and made sure I got a bet on with her, I obviously can’t resist a brunette with a Scottish accent.

Not sure what to make of the Dante, I can’t take Black Bear Island (pictured in the darker silks) seriously at all as a Derby contender and I was disappointed with my own pick, Kite Wood. I’m quite certain the winner won’t be coming from that race this year.

A comedy moment was when some young lad in catering sprinted past us and we thought he looked a lot like Arran. We were tittering about it and he saw us laughing and gave us a funny look. He obviously thought we were taking the piss out of him running along, as on the way back he came over and gave me a nudge. He says “Good joke there lads, I’ve got another couple. What’s pink and fluffy? Pink fluff. What’s blue and fluffy? Pink fluff holding its breath.” - to coin a phrase made famous by another DUPS whipping boy, I LOLed. Excellent banter from the youngster.

Here’s a random clip taken around the time of the comedy moment. I’d tried to film the Arran clone but couldn’t quite catch him. You probably needed to have met Gordon Keir from Hustlers to get what Tim’s on about but it amuses me, particularly the way he’s chuntering on before realising he’s being filmed.

I didn’t wander round as much as I usually do, I didn’t even go over to the parade ring or anything. I think it was a mixture of being a bit under the weather and catching up with Tim more than anything. I’m sure I’ll be back to my old self when I return for the Ebor meeting with Laura in August. Can’t wait to go back.

We got the train over to Sheffield after racing as York’s a bit dear for a night out, but due to the weather being horrendous, I cancelled the plans I had in mind about which pubs to go to and we ended up staying in the Bankers Draft all night. I bumped into this random Glaswegian at the bar, who started off taking the piss out of my attire but as soon as I gave him a bit of Scottish vernacular, he became my bessie mate and insisted on sitting with us all night, regaling us with tales of his trip to Dundee to drink in the Balmore and many fights involving Old Firm football fans. It was reminiscent of the tawdriness of Dave Wilkie in the old days of DUPS; his refusal to fuck off and leave us alone, his rubbish catchphrases, his almost certainly exaggerated stories and to cap it off, the removal of his false teeth.

You can hear Tim’s version of events in this clip. It started off as me filming him to see how he’d react and then when I pointed out we’d hardly taken any footage, he went off on this ridiculous monologue.

Will and Kenny – don’t forget about Hamilton. I’m definitely going even if I go alone, but you should try and make it. Are you definitely on holiday Scott? Obviously be great if you could come too. I’m pretty sure it’s Wednesday June 10th.

Take it easy folks. I'm off to sleep soon as I'm up at half four to queue for tickets, to ensure my work pals and old man can go to Wembley. What a way to spend your day off. Might have a look at some bets when I get back.

Brutal Hangover

Apologies for the promised Derby 3rd round post not appearing on Saturday but I decided it would be a good idea to go shot for shot with my monster of a mate, Deko, on Friday night. Saturday was a write off right up until 8pm when I seemed to perk up and was able to watch what was a fascinating night's racing on BSQ.

It was a great night for my selections as they all made it through to the QFs. Love Mac, who I added before the last round at 100/1, won his heat in good fashion, starting and finishing well. Jogadusc Ace also qualified from the same heat. Farloe Reason pissed his heat in a fast 28.72 whilst Greenwell River survived a massive scare after being very slow away he managed to hold onto 3rd but wasn't impressive at all.

So I'm left with:

Farloe Reason @ 33/1 - now 10/1
Greenwell River @ 50/1 - now 20/1
Jogadusc Ace @ 125/1 - now 100/1
Love Mac @ 100/1 - now 50/1
Windy Millar @ 50/1 - now 8/1

The Quarter Finals are live on Sky Sports on Tuesday and heat 3 has a sensational line up with something like 6 of the first 8 in the market in the same race. Disappointingly my two biggest winners, Farloe and Greenwell, have been drawn in it. The heat consists of Farloe Reason, Bandicoot Tipoki, Fear Zafonic, Shelbourne Aston, Ballymac Ruso and Greenwell River.

I'll be back on before then to give a small preview and hopefully pick some winners.

GL.

Scott

Dizzee Rascal - Bonkers

Awesome tune imo. I'll post my thoughts on 3rd round of Derby on Saturday morning - confident of progression for a few of my selections.

Boozy Day On The Cards At York

Well, I've remained a bit quiet for a while, so it's time you heard from me again. Firstly, I will eat a huge slice of humble pie for my dismissive comments re: Brawn GP in the Formula One Preview article I wrote some weeks ago. The team has been a revelation and a breath of fresh air in kicking the sport up the proverbial. And don't mention my tip for the title, Ferrari !

Now, most readers of this blog will know that my biggest passion is racing anything with an engine in, however, I still enjoy a good trip to the nags as much as the next man ! (Especially for the drinking and social side of things, I couldn't pick a winner except by fluke, so I'll leave that to Dom if he gets on before tomorrow). Today I was testing a sidecar at Mallory Park, however, tomorrow, (Thursday) I'll be trading horse power, for, well, horse power ! Only this being real horses at York's Dante Festival, and not 125 bhp tyre-shredding beasts.

As I profess to know little about the sport of kings, I won't go on too much just now, other than to say I hope the weather is warm and sunny, the beer cold and the odd bet comes good. Expect a full report and pictures from either myself or Dom in the next few days.

Oh go on then, here's a few random fancies I may have a small e/w punt on:

1.40 - Dazed and Amazed
2.10 - Crystal Capella
2.40 - Redwood or Crowded House
3.10 - Blythe Knight
3.45 - Waffle
4.20 - Trade Secret
4.55 - Sonny Sam

Good luck all ! And remember, these choices are merely pin in the map style, not researched or anything so caution is advised. ;-)

Thanks for reading
Mountain Man

Greyhound Derby 2nd Round

Had a quick look at how the draw has affected/effected (rar, this always pisses me off) my selections. Some have been handed decent draws, others not so good.

8.00 - Greenwell River runs in the first heat of Friday and has been handed a tough looking draw. Kinda Easy runs from T2 and was fairly impressive in the 1st round where it made all in 28.87. Shelbourne Denny and Tyrur Kenny both won their heats in decent times. Greenwell River recorded a time a few lengths down on these three in the opening round but suffered crowding at 2 bends - I'll be looking for Greenwell River to crack out tonight and lead them all since this will be it's third look at Wimbledon. Might not win but I'm fairly hopeful of qualification in the top 3.

8.15 - Jogadusc Ace is my biggest priced outright winner and has a peachy draw tonight. Breaks well from T1 and shouldn't face too much competition for the lead. Cabra Boss looks a decent dog and will be chasing him home but Jogadusc may hold out. Jogadusc Ace is actually a bit of value at 3/1.

9.45 - Cut from 33s to 16s after an exciting 1st round performance, Farloe Reason looks set to repeat that performance in the Friday's last heat. It has the best early pace of the six and shoudl ping from T3 and grab the rails before bombing to victory. Could be cut shorter when it wins this heat.

8.30 Saturday - Bubbly Totti has been handed a tougish draw but it runs on well and I expect it to qualify from this heat. Windy Millar looked very impressive in the 1st round and should go well again and I like the look of Love Mac from T1 who I may actually back outright at a juicy 130 on Betfair.

9.30 Saturday - To say Barnfield On Air has it tough on Saturday could be a massive understatement. Drawn in T2 between a decent starter in T1 and Derby favourite Fear Zafonic in T3, it looks destined for no run whatsoever. Fear Zafonic should burst clear and T6 Dotland Hit Man should follow him round, I just hope BOA gets a clear run and can claim 3rd.


Selections:

8.15 Friday Wimbledon
T1 Jogadusc Ace @ 3/1

8.30 Friday Wimbledon
T3 Melodys Pat @ 5/2

8.45 Friday Wimbledon
T2 Cash Dream @ 6/4

9.00 Friday Wimbledon
T6 Barnfield Slippy @ 13/8

9.15 Friday Wimbledon
T1 Head Iton Ellis @ 9/2

9.45 Friday Wimbledon
T3 Farloe Reason @ EVNS

8.00 Saturday Wimbledon
T5 London Walter @ 6/1

A few value selections thrown in there, let's win it all!

GL

Scott

Play-Off Preview

Well, it’s that time of year again. The annual opportunity to rip off twelve sets of football league supporters is upon us. Three of those groups of fans won’t mind too much, while the other nine will be needlessly disappointed as they lose out in a competition that didn’t really ought to exist. Yes, it’s time for the divisional play-offs!

Seriously, this competition is a total waste of time. Just promote the teams that finish highest up in the division; it’s quite simple really. I don’t understand the logic behind potentially promoting a side who have proven that they aren’t among the best sides in the division over a whole season, but who have been lucky enough with injuries and form to win a handful of games in late April and early May. The whole point of a season is to work out who is best in a season, not a couple of weeks; if it weren’t, Hull would be playing in Europe. Still, at least Wembley gets a few extra games to stage, so that people like me can help pay off the ridiculous fees required to build the bastard place, a place that didn’t even need building. I’d also love it if someone could explain to me why the Football League say that I can’t have the home leg included on my season ticket and I have to pay £16 to sit in my own seat.

Sigh.

With that off my chest, I’m now going to preview the Championship pay-offs. I mean play-offs. I’d love to have done them all, but my missus has been down from Scotland and I’ve not got a day off now until May 14th (when I’m going racing) so I’m a busy boy and this is your lot.

Let’s start with my own team. Sheffield United are the favourites; logical based on the fact that we finished third, three points clear of Reading in fourth and six points clear of sixth placed Preston. Something I picked up on whilst watching the final game of the season is that people are referring to us as “the form team”, which is frankly laughable and makes you question just how relevant form is in football. They are of course referring to our excellent long-term away record, but form is supposed to be about recent events. Prior to the Selhurst Park match, we had scored just two goals in four games. Now, we have scored just two goals in five games, winning two and drawing two. The defeat was 1-0 away to play-off rivals Burnley, who have completed a double over us this year, in a match where we played terribly; the two 0-0 draws were against poor, bottom half of the table sides (one at home, against a side who had ten men for three quarters of the match) and the last victory came courtesy of a penalty, in a 1-0 home win over Swansea and if I’m brutally honest, we didn’t look very good at all in that match. Fair enough, 1-0 away at Reading was a good result, but that's going back to Good Friday.

Some form that is. Add in the season ending injury to my player of the season Gary Naysmith (below), the questionable fitness of actual player of the season Matt Kilgallon and the complete lack of a creative midfielder and I simply can’t have us at any price, let alone the best price (Boylesports) of 12/5. Oh, another thing – does anyone like trends? Six seasons ago, we lost in the play-off final. Six seasons before that, we lost in the play-off final.

Scott recently told me that I regularly play down United’s chances of success. I conceded that he was right, but it’s worth mentioning that the chat came the night before I suggested that we’d draw with lowly Forest, which we did.

United’s opponents will be Preston, who celebrated as though they had won the league when scraping into the play-offs on goals scored, after beating QPR 2-1 (with thanks to Sheffield Wednesday for beating Cardiff). Preston have made the play-offs twice, making the final twice, but failing to win twice. Like United, they’ll be keen to make it third final lucky but Alan Irvine sounded very, shall we say, “realistic” on Sky Sports News last night. More keen to talk about how far they’d come since he took over and how they almost went down last year, he seemed very downbeat in talking about North End’s play-off hopes. With four wins from their last four matches, including 2-1 away at Birmingham and 6-0 at home to Cardiff, they are the real “form” side in my eyes and with no pressure of expectation, they shouldn’t be underestimated and 7/2 (Coral, Bet365, Stan James & SkyBet) looks interesting. Of course, the 5.1 on Betfair looks even more interesting.

That said, I don’t personally think the Lancashire side hold anything that United should fear. Jon Parkin (right) is a handful, but should easily be negated by the perfectly balanced Blades defence (strength and aggression in Morgan, pace and finesse in Kilgallon, assuming he’s fit). The two meetings earlier in the season were relatively close, but the draw at Deepdale ought to have been a United win and the 1-0 win for the Blades at Bramall Lane ought to have been by even more, but United were stuck in a lean spell, unable to hit the target. United’s points haul away from home is second only to Championship winners Wolverhampton Wanderers (and even then we lost fewer games on the road than Wolves) and that should prove the difference; I envisage a draw on Friday, with United pinching it at the Lane.

Reading look ugly, even at a best price of 5/2 (Blue Square & Coral). Supporter unrest and a shocking home record of late (their last home win was on February 7th against Preston) means that Burnley will not be too concerned about their trip to the Madejski for the second leg, particularly if the Clarets continue their impressive home form in the first leg (five wins from five, including a win over Sheffield United). The Royals have real injury concerns too, as Hunt, Harper and Armstrong are all set to miss the semis, with Little and Lita also unlikely to feature. Of the four contenders, I have to say that Reading look the least likely candidates for promotion and I’ll be looking to lay at the current price.

Burnley have a couple of injury doubts in the form of Wade Elliot (below) and Clarke Carlisle, whilst defender Rhys Williams won’t feature as his loan has expired. I still can’t see Reading troubling the Clarets, though this doesn’t bode well long term, as Burnley have had a gruelling schedule what with their cup exploits and their squad isn’t the largest. That said, they have been the side for the big occasion this year, with excellent results against Chelsea, Arsenal, Wolves and Sheffield United, so if they get through to the final, which I expect they will, they must be respected.

To wrap up then, I’ve got to say that this is set to be one of the closest Championship play-offs in a long time and I honestly can’t find much value in terms of betting. If forced, I’d predict Burnley to beat Sheffield United in a scrappy final, but I don’t think the best price of 3/1 (SkyBet & Bet365) is much cop, given Burnley’s long and tiring season. I will be laying Reading though – they are slight favourites for promotion on the exchanges as I type, which is absolutely comical.

COME ON YOU RED AND WHITE WIZAAAAAAAAAAARDS!

Reading for promotion
Lay @ 3.5 (Betfair)
To win 3pts

Riddle Solution

Below is the solution to the riddle from a few posts down. I know Kenny couldn't get it and it seems Alex struggled from his comment. It was tough and tbh I didn't really get close. Slightly lengthy but worth reading.

In poker news I was bored the other night so deposited on Stars to play a $22 tourn and finished like 35th for something shit like $80 but proceeded to spin that up playing the $11 turbo hu sngs. Think I peaked at $300ish after winning 14 in a row over two nights.
It's fairly gutting not having the money to play decent tourns as means you have to contend with ridiculous sized fields on PokerStars. Excellent example being yesterday when I'm bored so I regged for a $3 rebuy. Soon after it started I noticed there was c.6000 runners, joke. Played well though and eventually finished 102nd for $100 when 1st was $8k! K10 losing to 99 on a K44 board against a fellow big stack was a crippler and eventually bust 3betting all in with A8 against A10. These tourns are a real slog and I'm not if I can find the motivation to play many more - should maybe switch to the more manageable fields on ipoker.

I'm going to do a small write up before Derby 2nd round on Friday so look out for that. Anyway, here's that solution.....


Divide the balls into three groups of four each, AAAA, BBBB and CCCC.
Weigh AAAA-BBBB.
Possible results are: -
They balance: Means one of the C's is heavy or light.
Therefore, weigh CCC-AAA (all A's are now known to be standard):
They balance: Means the 4th C is the oddball.
Therefore, weigh the 4th C against any other ball.
4th C falls: Means The 4th is heavy.
4th C rises: Means The 4th is light.
CCC side falls: Means one of the C's is heavy.
Therefore, weigh C-C:
They balance: Means The other C is heavy.
One side falls: Means That C is heavy.
CCC side rises: Means one of the C's is light.
Therefore, weigh C-C.
They balance: Means the other C is light.
One side rises: Means that C is light.

The AAAA side falls: Means the oddball is either a heavy A or a light B and the C's are all standard.
Therefore, arrange the balls into three new groups like so: AAAC BBBA CCCB. Weigh BBBA-CCCB:
They balance: Means Oddball in AAAC.
Therefore, weigh A-A.
They balance: Means the other A in AAAC is heavy.
One side falls: Means that side is the heavy A.
Left side (BBBA) falls: Means the A in BBBA is heavy or the B in CCCB is light.
Therefore, weigh A-C (C is known to be standard).
They balance: Means The B in CCCB is light.
A side falls: Means A is heavy.
C falls: Not possible.
Right side (CCCB) falls: Means a B in BBBA is light.
Therefore, from BBBA weigh B-B.
They balance: Means the other B in BBBA is light.
Left side falls: Means the B on the right is light.
Right side falls: Means the B on the left is light.

The BBBB side falls: the oddball is either a heavy B or a light A and the C's are all standard.
Therefore, arrange the balls into three new groups like so: AAAB BBBC CCCA. Weigh AAAB-CCCA:
They balance: Means the oddball is in BBBC.
Therefore, weigh B-B.
They balance: Means the other B in BBBC is heavy.
One side falls: Means that side is the heavy B.
Left side (AAAB) falls: The B in AAAB is heavy or the A in CCCA is light.
Therefore, weigh B-C (C is known to be standard).
They balance: Means the A in CCCA is light.
B side falls: Means B is heavy.
C side falls: Not possible.
Right side (CCCA) falls: Means an A in AAAB is light.
Therefore, from AAAB weigh A-A.
They balance: Means the other A in AAAB is light.
Left side falls: Means the A on the right is light.
Right side falls: Means the A on the left is light.

Excellent MMA Submission

Brain Melt

Explain this riddle. You have twelve balls, one weighs either more or less then the other 11. You have a scale but are only allowed to use it 3 times...Can you tell me which ball it is AND if it weighs more or less (Note: explain the logic you used to find the ball, explain all possible outcomes)?

gg life if you try this, killed me.

Wooooooof

Had a fairly epic day yesterday. Went straight from my football game to a relative's wedding in some decent hotel place and started on the beers. Was a decent event and stayed til about 1am before heading to Dundee Gala Casino with the intention of meeting a few friends, enjoying a few beers and watching the boxing. The casino is open 24 hours this weekend for the bank holiday. Anyway, I get there and sign up for the cash game after about one minute in the building. [ ] good idea

Within 5 hands I get a full double of my £100 when a guy stacks off with 2 pair v my set. Grind it up to about £240 but lose a big chunk getting a load in with QQ v A3 on a 2584 board - great call on flop sir. Only other notable pot was against Martin from pokerindundee.com when he 3bets my open to about £25 and I put him in for another £25 and lose QQ v AK for a £100 pot. gg me.

Boxing was an absolute joke with Hatton outclassed from the opening bell. Pacman was far far too good. Hatton v DLH next?

Was going to leave after fight but heard rumours of a free breakfast buffet at 7.30am. Ended up about £50 down in the cash game which was shit and breakfast wasn't even that good.

Got home about 8.30am and immediately caught some sleep. Woke at 1 and watched another fairly dire episode of Britain's Got Talent.

A few options for tonight - either back out for some beers with guys from football or grind some heads up sngs on Stars. Won 14 in a row over Thursday and Friday which was nice obv.

All main selections for Derby are through. Lets go!

GLGLGLGLGLGL

Scott

My Greyhound Derby 2009 Selections.

The first heats on the Derby are tonight, so I thought I'd post my dabblings up and chat a little.
Without any analysis whatsoever, except for the hugely underrated 'lovely-name' picking theorem, I placed some bets on the 09 derby for a laugh, mostly on the long shots of 100-1 and over, but also a small bet on Bubbly Totti as tipped by Scott.

My almost-dog last year, Toosey Blue (I think it got to the semis or quarters) is running again this year, and I'm ashamed to say I didn't back it. If it wins.. god help me.

Also, since recently this space is also turning into a life blog and I haven't spoken in a while, let me just say that I'm still here, I'm going through some exams just now, and when I'm done I'll be partying it up in summer time. So expect visits to London, or Dom in Sheffield for a random race, or some other crazy adventure obscured at present by clouds of future and mystery.
On the job front, I think I'm unemployable, partly because a) I'm not good at bigging myself up, and/or lying about skills and goals. "I don't want a job with you I just want some money." and all that. b) I'm a bit insane and c) Not actually very skilled in computery things, even though I study computing. Lets face it the only 2 jobs I've been accepted in are being a Nanman (turned waiter) thanks to young Dom, and Stockroom Superstar Rapper thanks to Scott, and I wasn't actually any good, having gotten in through 'the back door' (ooer) in the first place.
But hey - who says theres a crisis of confidence in males today? I still don't believe it.

But enough about my life, lets publish these bets so we can follow them as they try to win the 2009 Greyhound derby.

Leave Me @ 1000/1, £0.50 EW Single - at 1000-1 this is amazing value, having only £1 placed on it I stand to win lots if it wins the whole thing. I just hope this dog doesn't 'Leave Me hanging' tonight.

- OUT - Got Mauled in its heat finishing last.

Romeo Out West @ 500/1, £1.00 Single - What a great name. I just couldn't resist: it has the cowboy connection, a legendary love tragedy and it suggests that we might be able to put these together for some kind of awesome. Some kind of awesome.

- OUT - Got Mauled in its heat finishing last.

Ebony Court @ 500/1, £1.00 Single - This reminds me of something: that the involvement of coloured girls in pornography is often classed as 'Ebony' (so I'm told). Bit racist maybe. Imagine all the young men in the stands blushing as this dog races out of the stalls! Great name.

-Runs tonight at 19:45.

Barnfield Slippy @ 200/1, £1.00 Single - Related to Barnfield On Air by breeder, maybe trainer, something like that. I like the thought of a slippy field outside a barn, don't ask me why.

-Got through its heat in 2nd on Friday the 1st May.

Kryptonite @ 100/1, £1.00 Single - Had this dog last year (because of its name), and it came fairly close, being fairly well bested in the final, yet it still has a chance.

-Got through its heat in 2nd on Friday the 1st May.

Bubbly Totti @ 66/1, £5.00 Single - As mentioned, I was advised by the Troop's resident greyhound Gandalf.

-Runs Tonight at 8:15.

That's my choices, I'm sure they'll all be out before long. Be out of the traps, kicking arses!!

Good luck to everyone in the world with an interest in the Derby this year.

P.S

I scooped another coupon accumulator with 5 teams today. That's three in my career which started from the beginning of the season. I might be fast becoming the best football accumulator bettor in the world.

P.P.S

Did anyone see the ridiculous football prices today? Arsenal were evens versus Portsmouth, and lots more teams were great prices. It must be because it was about the last game of the season for the lower leagues (excepting play-offs and such). We learnt later that Arsenal made about 8 changes to their team, so I suppose we might've been lucky there getting a win. But 3-0 was a good result.

Blue Square Greyhound Derby

Loyal Honcho stands proudly after winning last year's Derby and hopefully this year's picture will include one of my selections. Been studying last few days and I've picked a good mix of early paced runners and all-round pace to give me a great chance. I hate short priced dogs in massive fields so I hope I've picked out dogs which represent extremely good value for stakes of all sizes.

Greenwell River (50/1 various)- It's always important to select a dog in good form and that certainly applys to this dog who broke the track record at Shawfield last month. Cabra Cool won the Scottish Derby there in 29.23 whilst Greenwell River ran a stonking 29.06. Ran a very fast trial over 460m here and despite the toughest 1st round heat I think this dog could go well in this competition.

Bubbly Totti (66/1 various) - An experienced Wimbledon runner and one who I think is a very good competition dog. It has good all round speed and I struggle to imagine a race make up where 3 dogs could beat this. I see good progress through the rounds and then anything can happen in the final rounds. Great chance.

Farloe Reason (33/1 various) - I backed this dog for the Scottish Derby because I believe it to be a fantastic animal with great pace. It was ridiculously unlucky then but should come good at Wimbledon. Trials show it is one of the fastest dogs in the field and with a bit of luck with trap draws can come out on top.

Jogadusc Ace (125/1 VC) - I love a dog with early pace and this dog has spades of it. Second in the Blue Riband at Hall Green behind Blonde Fern (chirp), it won both heats there before encountering trouble in the final. Big price and should give us a great run for our money.

Barnfield On Air (100/1 VC) - One of the favourites from last year where it reached the semi-finals is fancied to really make an impact this year. Breaks well and shows good early and with a 27.64 and 27.65 trial round the 460m at Wimbledon last month could do a lot of damage.


The above dogs will comprise my main bets but I'm going to be spreading my interest on a few others:

Plassey (200/1 Ladbrokes)
Blonde Dino (200/1 VC)
Tyrur Hestor (33/1 various)
Windy Millar (50/1 various)
Cash Dream (100/1 various)


GL all

Scott