Sunday, 31 May 2009

Teach Me!!!!

Was gutted that I couldn't stay in tonight to watch Derby and BGT final but it was football team's POTY night out - didn't win anything (farce)!!!

So Kinda Ready won!!! WTF?

Obviously upset Farloe Reason didn't win but was delighted with the run I got. I really feel I can crush the shorter comps over 3 or 4 rounds. Will text me to tell me Love Lynx came 2nd - a decent 25/1 shot?

Excuse any errors in this post - I'm drunk and have bee going back over any errors I spot!

Anyway, the title of this thread is a plea for knowledge. I backed at Julian Smith for BGT at about an average of 40/1 for a measly £10 and after he gets through his semi-final he was like 12/1 at the very most. Can I make guaranteed good money here? Should I back for more initially in cases where it is obvious the price is going to drop like this. This was a super clear case imo. I really can't understand trading on Betfair atm and really need to learn - especially for the greyhound comps.

Thanks guys,



moDtheGod said...

You couldn't make a big profit there I don't think, without a big liability.

If you back £10 at 41.0 and lay to win £31.61 at 13.00 (a liability of £379.34) then you could guarantee profit of £20.66 (after 3% commission) regardless of the outcome.

moDtheGod said...

That's a simple bet hedging calculator, but it doesn't factor in commission.

Will Walsh said...

enjoyed your posts during the Derby. Got me interested in dog racing again. I used to have a great knowledge of dogs, moreso than horse racing. I even actually said to my dad prior to the Derby final that you wouldn't rule out the outsider in the race as Allen Gift managed to win at 50/1 in 2002 when he had no right to. Anyway keep up the good work Scott. Look forward to more big priced winners.