Some stuff

That's me back from another trip north of the border to see the wife. Turns out Kenny's cousin is a bell end. Anyway, my train home wasn't until 16:02 so I took the time to get the RP in and enjoy her cable TV (ATR for the win!).

I placed three bets and had a good day - my first was a small bet on Ruby Tallulah in the 15:00 at Lingfield, as it was unlucky last time out, Kirsty Milczarek (pictured) was on it and it was good value at 5.7 - it won, which means KM has now lost her claim. Although I know she's still a good jock, I will be easing off the blind Kirsty backing for now, just to see what happens. Pretty sure I'll be backing her again quickly though, especially if some trainers let her have a go on real horses, with four legs and that run in a straight line and everything.

My other two bets were Rightful Rulers in the 18.10 as the favourite looked awful. Right to oppose, but 3 points lost to an outsider as my selection came 2nd. The 19:25 at Nottingham was better fayre though as Shadow Bay came in, 2 points at 5.2 leaving me 7.76 points in profit for the day and at 53.88 points up since the formation of the Scoop Troop, another all-time high. Let's hope the upward trend carries on.

I have a job interview tomorrow, I don't really want the job but I can't afford not to work. I almost hope I don't get it really, but I have literally no other options open to me just now and beggars can't be choosers. The sick news is that my strike rate at interviews is 0%. Honestly. I have had 7 jobs in my life (counting the two spells at Hustlers as two jobs) and they were all down to knowing the right people, no interview required. They always throw me a curveball, some bullshit hippy question which catches me out and makes me look stupid. "What's your favourite colour and why?"

Might go to Bramall Lane tomorrow, nothing better to do. We won't beat Port Vale, I wonder if he'll put a strong side out. Loving the pigs failing to beat 10 man Rovrum at home tonight, ridiculous but hilarious.

Think I'll leave it there and go play G1 jockey which is quite simply, the best Wii game ever.

Car Crash

I am one lucky boy! In the early hours of this morning I was in a fairly bad car crash and survived with only a few aches and pains, as did the driver and the two backseat passengers.

We were getting a lift back from a friend's house and I was sitting in the passenger seat. It was something like 5am, I was exhausted and couldn't stop myself from dozing off. Then baaannnnnnggggg as we hurtled down a brae and eventually ended about 20 metres from the road with the car on its side. Very, very scary! One hell of a way to be woken up, a tap on the shoulder would have worked.

Everyone seemed fine and in one piece so we clambered out and got everything sorted.

Car obv a write off but I feel so lucky that we didn't smash into a tree or the like. The corner is reknowned for being notoriously tricky with a number of accidents over the years, this coupled with the heavy rain caused the car to slide off. Nasty.

Girlfriend picked me up later on and I was bricking it in the passenger side of her car even though she is an excellent driver. Obv mentally scarred :-p

Below is an artist's impression of events which may or may not accurately illustrate the crash....

Sunday Selection - Zulu Chief 4.15 Curragh

Just had a quick scan of the cards tommorw and as a Coolmore whore have uncovered a cracking bet at the Curragh in the shape of Zulu Chief. This horse ran well at Newmarket first time out and then romped away with a maiden by 20lengths. This horse has some fancy entries but O'Brien has been quoted as saying they will aim low this year but expect him to be top class next year.

This is not a great Group 2 and shouldn't take much winning. The main danger on paper looks to be King of Rome but he looks thorougly exposed and shouldn't be good enough. Moiqen is a decent horse but I don't expect him to live with the class of Zulu Chief. I expect a star to be born tommorow and will backing Zulu Chief for a decent sized bet. I will be looking for 6/4 but would take anything over Evens.

Chilli Heatwave Doritos.......

.... are surely the best crisps in the world?

Anyone got anything to compete alongside these bad boys?

I've got the key, I've got the secret(or do I?)

Ok so until mid June I have found this betting lark very hard work this year.Any decent wins were swiftly followed by a run of losers and I found myself down on the year for bit. Then I found some form in late June and built up a decent bank before managing to make some rash decisions as has been the norm for me and ended up with just a small period for that profit.

Now I'm aware that July and August are the months us punters on the horses have the best chance of winning so made another deposit in Betfair 16 days ago. The last 2 weeks have not only cleared the years loss but netted me a decent bank to play with. I've not decided how to play this yet. I've cut the account so I've level for the year. They key is, has this been an extraordinary run of luck which will soon peter out and lead to a sudden fall (the what comes up must come down theory)? Or is it the case that things have finally fallen into place and I have they key? There is no doubt that the increased bank has actually stopped me tilting when I lose a couple of bets as it means that the hit I take has not such an impact on the balance. I think before my bets were too high a percentage of the account balance.

My question is do I withdraw the bulk of winnings and start again with a small bank OR do I keep a sizeable bank in the hope that this is the key to success? Thoughts/opinions welcomed. I know I can be my own worst enemy at times and I value all your opinions as friends and as guys with good betting knowledge.

Will? Were you at Carlisle this evening?

From the RP
=====================================================
An angry punter, seemingly the worse for drink, held up the third race at Carlisle on Monday night for fully eight minutes after remaining on the course and shouting abuse at jockeys.

Tom Eaves, who rode the unplaced Liberty Lodge in the race, said; "He was shouting stuff at us as we walked around at the start and wouldn't get out of the way."
=====================================================

I can just imagine it. "You're a joke, a fucking clown! What a shit ride, I hope you realise what you've cost me. Fucking joke. You should retire now because you're fucking shite!"

Anyway, I came online to study some form and basically there's nothing really that I like, apart from in the 17:00 at Catterick (7f) where I will be enjoying an e/w punt.

The forecast favourite (5.1 as I type) looks pish to me. It's basically done nothing. I don't care that the way this race should be run will suit it, it's average and it's carrying more weight than it's ever done before. Bohobe (7.0) doesn't impress me either. Am I supposed to care that they've booked Seb Sanders? You can't polish a turd. Putting a good jockey on it won't make it win. It's never acted on the forecast ground (Good to Firm) before and it's only win was on Good to Soft, over the minimum trip.

Looking at how Red Skipper's career has panned out, you'd have to think that this trip is going to suit it, but then you realise that it has run over 7f before and it came last. I watched that race and it was fucking terrible, properly shit. Broke perfectly, faded quickly, never responded to the jockey at all and generally ran about as well as Tim plays poker. I really can't understand why it's forecast second favourite by ATR, I think the RP are closer and I think even Betfair is wrong just now, I can't believe it's ahead of Just Sam in the market. I expect that will all have changed when I wake up.

Speaking of Just Sam, what a consistent filly she is, but she obviously doesn't like winning. She's had a few good chances and always comes second, perhaps comparable to Alan Sharp's poker career. Last time out she lost by a neck to a nag which later showed up nowhere in a seller. Today she'll carry 7lbs more for that and I can envisage another bridesmaid performance.

Nothing else really takes my eye; Fantasy Fighter looks horrendous but will be carrying a feather weight so could run a place, Afton View looks like it's got it's best chance to do well and Monte Cassino has also has good a chance as he'll ever get (ran okay in maiden company last time out and loses almost a stone for it!) but none impress me as much as Johnny Friendly.

A useful win over this trip and in this company on the all weather was followed up by a third place a class higher (the winner of that was far too good for that grade and the second went on to win a class six race and come second at class five to a useful sort) . He then scored another class five second place, in a race where there was no real front runner. Forced to make the running, Johnny Friendly was overtaken by two others but rallied and stayed on well to get second in a blanket finish. More recently tried over 8f, which stretches him, it seems a return to this trip is the way forward and although the weight may be a little high, I think he's got more than enough about him to take this down. The price has actually shortened as I've typed all this out and it's only 5.9 at Betfair now but as I don't see it getting much bigger, I'm going to take some of it.

I'm going to back it e/w because I'm chicken. I am worried about those two feather weight horses getting lucky, basically. Instead of 2pts to win, I'm going 1pt e/w. This is going to be my only bet of the day, nothing else grabs me at all.

GET ON!

Busy on here lately

Keep up the good work.

Was at a loose end this evening so I decided to have a quick scan of the Sunday card. I’ve basically picked all the races with ten or fewer runners as they generally mean less effort is required. Here’s what I came up with:

14:50 at Chester – I would be most interested in Alphabeth, but 5 runs in the last months (including yesterday) is a tad excessive and so she surely won’t run. Even if she does, she’ll be cream crackered. I think Red Baron Dancer is probably going to win, but I have enough doubts in my mind to want to oppose it and will be going with a small e/w bet on Aahaygirl. It will be a tough ask off that weight, but I think it can be done. Of course, this assumes that eight/nine go. If seven or fewer run, I will just leave this one alone as there’s not enough e/w appeal.

Verdict: Aahaygirl is good enough to do Red Baron Dancer. If she weren’t carrying so much weight I’d be backing her to win but as it is, 0.5 points e/w at around 7.5

17:00 at Chester – much like the last one, I’d be more interested in the non runner than any of the others, but as things stand I think Bowder Stone is the way to go. I’m usually wary of horses with many 2s and 3s but no 1s, but I think this one can be excused. It performed well last time out over C&D, coming second to a decent horse with a good draw in My Aunt Fanny, while the time before it was third to two more useful sorts. It should also enjoy the ground. Riqaab may have the Group One entry, but it hasn’t actually done anything yet. Last time out it beat nothing at all of note and it’s not proven to me that it can stay this distance. Another tough ask off top weight, but I think the selection can finally get his nose in front.

Verdict: Bowder Stone, 2pts at around 3.5

15:35 Market Rasen – Little Lu has to be the one here. She just has better form than the Timmy Murphy ride, which is now at an all time high in the weights. Ursis looks to have strong claims but may prefer easier ground and the win last time out was the first for 18 months. Little Lu has 5 wins from 9 and has been well placed, I think this is another good choice of race.

Verdict: Little Lu, 1 point at around 3.05

Edit: I've only just got up, bit later than planned. I've come to place my bets and I'm pretty surprised by what I see. Bowder Stone is short, available now only at 2.85, which I'll probably have to take. Little Lu is at 5.4, which surprises me and Aahaygirl is around 6.6.

Stonker

Betting on friendlies is generally not advised but surely Liverpool will be a good thing today vs Rangers.

Rangers 5/2 Draw 13/5 Liverpool 5/4

Also, Middlesbrough should defeat Hibernian easily too. I read this week that Hibs haven't scored since like April which is ridic. Their latest friendly was a defeat to Cowdenbeath and since this their manager, Mixu Pataelinaan*, has declared that 9 of the first team squad are available for transfer.

Hibernian 9/4 Draw 13/5 Middlesbrough 11/10

All prices from oddschecker.

*almost certainly a spelling error

SFL Kicks Off

First fixtures of the season today in the Scottish Football Leagues (this doesn't include the SPL) and one bet sticks out and it pains me to say it.

There is no way I can see my team, Dundee, winning away to Ross County. Last week Dundee were pathetic in the Challenge Cup losing to lower league Alloa 2-1. Ross County on the other hand beat Division 1 favourites St. Johnstone.

However, the real reason Dundee are to be opposed is the fact that they have no fit defenders. All four recognised central defenders (MacKenzie, Lauchlan, McKeown and Malone) are unfit and won't play whilst 2 or 3 other regulars won't play. Things have got so bad that the manager, Alex Rae, has registered himself and coach Paul Ritchie! Plus we have Rab Douglas between the sticks and I'm not sure he'll be any use at 36 as he was never the most fluid of movers.

Rae was quoted in the paper as saying his team will "have a go" and doesn't sound at all confident.

From oddschecker:

Ross County 7/4 Draw 13/5 Dundee 17/10

Hope I'm wrong and Dundee thrash them!

Glorious Gambling

I haven’t studied any form for a good few days so I thought I’d check out Saturday at Goodwood. Owing to not having a TV in the room where I am based at my folks, I’m finding following the racing difficult. Yesterday I watched my first Goodwood races – ridiculous! I punted on two of them, I was on Cape Hawk e/w (placed 4th, small profit) and Sohcahtoa (won, decent profit) which moved the Scoop Troop profits up to a healthy 49.04 points.

I am going to use the products of tonight’s studying to enter the latest Beat Victor competition (www.beatvictor.com) which I forgot to enter last week, owing to being at York. Pretty sure I will never win a Beat Victor contest ever again, but if I get the free £5 bet, that’s better than nothing. I've not even glanced at the card prior to this, so I've nothing already in mind and I've no idea what I'll end up with.

Getting our priorities in order right off the bat, let’s look at the draw. I understand there to be a significant draw bias in sprints at Goodwood, in favour of the higher numbered stalls. It is even more prominent at on the round course and for the longer distances, the centre seems to be the way to go. The going looks set to be Good to Firm, ideal conditions.

The opening race 11 furlong looks a tricky contest but I like the looks of Cosmea, available at 6.6 on Betfair as I type. This one won a fortnight ago, beating a horse by a neck which then turned up at Goodwood on Wednesday, comfortably winning a class 2 race. A winner over 10 and 12 furlongs, at similar weights to today, it should easily be able to cope. The favourite has never run beyond 9 furlongs and though the pedigree suggests it might be able to handle it, I’d rather back the proven performer. Here’s hoping jockey Dane O’Neill comes back from his fortnight’s lay off in the same form he left us with – his last day’s work saw him fire in three winners, a second and a third from seven rides.

Verdict: Cosmea 1 pt.

I’m thoroughly confused by the second race. I can’t understand why Perfect Stride is so short, he surely needs to be bigger than 3.15 on offer at Betfair just now and although River Proud (who seems the best bet for me) is a much healthier 4.3, I can’t back him due to his behavioural problems. Stubbs Art is consistent at a higher level and I can forgive the run last time out but it may not even go, says the trainer. If forced I’d probably go with Stubbs Art, but I think I’ll just be watching.

Verdict: No thanks.

The 15:15 Group 1 looks really straightforward. It just has to be Lush Lashes (right). Bounced back nicely from a blip at Epsom and can handle 10 furlongs, as proven when beating a couple of useful sorts at York on Good to Firm. The only one coming close for me is the O’Brien filly (and who’d bet against O’Brien winning another Group 1!?) but given that last time out it could only beat Tuscan Evening by a head with Mad About You another head behind, I’m not impressed; Mad About You reappeared 5 ¾ lengths behind Moonstone (who Lush Lashes beat at York by 7 lengths) and Tuscan Evening turned out last time 14 ½ lengths behind Lush Lashes. Sorry Will, but you Coolmore whores can’t win every race… I will be putting this down as my first tilt at 'L' in the A-Z game also.

Verdict: Lush Lashes 2pts. Same applies for my A-Z game.

The 15:50 has 28 runners. That is all. I will be keeping an eye on Orpsie Boy though, as Kirsty is on board, like she was the other day at Ascot in another massive race, scoring a creditable 5th place. It must be said though, I think they were lucky to be drawn where all the pace was, a couple of better horses on the opposite side came nowhere with nothing to race against.

Verdict. Don’t even GO there, girlfriend. Watch Miss Milczarek fire in a 33/1 shot and then cry for not backing it e/w.

Another no go is the 16:25. It’s a maiden and it’s got 18 entrants. They’re mostly talking about Holyrood, because it looked like it could be useful finishing 4th in it’s only run. Sigh. I’ll leave the guesswork to Scott, I like my bets to have a little substance to them. One thing I will bet on though, Laura or Kenny could pick one out blindfolded and the fucking thing would probably win.

Verdict: No bet.

The 17:00 nursery looks a tricky one to sort out, with most pundits opting for the top weight. I think Golden Rosie is in with a good chance and 9lbs lighter than Tishtar, I’d be inclined to go with her. Fault interests me, it’s either going to win it, or come last.

Verdict: No bet. I like Golden Rosie but not enough. If there’s a market move or something, I might be persuaded to put a point on.

The apprentice race at 17:35 is yet another horrible one. I’d love to back Kirsty Milczarek, as you all know, but she’s on a shocker of a horse. I rate David Probert as an up and coming jockey and his ride Count Ceprano interests me but again, not enough to punt on. White Deer has interesting form but looks unlikely to stay 11 furlongs. A horrible, horrible race to sort out.

Verdict: Another cop-out, I’m afraid. No money to be made by guessing. If force, I’d take Count Ceprano for half a point e/w (13.0 at time of writing).

So there you have it, after all that it turns out I'm having just three points on Goodwood tomorrow! One time Goodwood.

Big Bad Dom

Here’s a quick update from me.

I’m still unemployed and have very few irons in the fire. AQA, Texperts rivals, decided they didn’t want me, which I just can’t understand as any monkey can do the job and this particular monkey did it for 17 months. Meh. Just got a few bits off the Job Centre website, will be sending off e-mails after this.

Laura was down last weekend and we nipped up the road to York – what a fantastic day out that was. The weather was ridiculous, we both came back with bright red faces and there was a Queen tribute band on after the meeting, which was fine banter. Apart from the fact that they were quite good, it seemed to spark all kinds of partying. We even enjoyed a streaker and some of the most relaxed stewarding ever – football security abroad ought to take note. A gang of them were stood watching and laughing at a group of blokes play fighting and the streaker was allowed basically to roam free – when he was caught, he just walked back to his mates, posing for photos before going off up the home straight again. The police waded in and restored order/spoiled the fun!

As for the gambling, I didn’t have a great day. I’d said to Laura that the card was a tough one and you’d be lucky to pick one winner from the seven races as they were really tough to call. As it happens I did get one winner, from five bets: Esoterica in the last race, 1 point each way at 9/2 (just missed out on 5/1) to leave me up a paltry 1.6 points for the day. The racing however, was of a superb standard and was well worth the visit. Pipedreamer (pictured) took down the Group 2 feature race.

York Lowlights: telling everyone that my nap was Four Miracles and then ridiculously not only failing to back it, because the price eased ever so slightly, but then backing a market mover which lost, to Four Miracles. It’s no coincidence that when I write everything down and stick to it, I have a good day but when I go racing unsure of myself, I have poor days. Also, Tajaweed. Backed it in it’s Derby trial and was thoroughly unimpressed and I correctly wrote it off for the Derby (as you may have read). I vowed never to forgive the run in the trial. Well at York I forgave it, for several reasons and I was wrong to do so. Why oh why did I change my mind about it?

York Highlights: being really surprised by what a fantastic race the 16:15 Maiden was. I’d said to Laura that it looked the worst race on the card and I was happy to just half watch it whilst really watching the King George at Ascot on the screens. What a pair of races we were treated to, the long odds on favourite at York kicked on before being caught up by Cruikadyke after a clever switch by the jockey and the lead changed hands a few times, before the 6/1 shot finally got up and then minutes later, a cracking race at Ascot saw Papal Bull and Duke Of Marmalade exchanging similar blows. Also, Laura’s ridiculous performance – “I can’t come racing and not have a bet” she proclaims before the fourth race of the day, the biggest field with 15 runners. The one she liked the name of was a non runner so she proceeded to sit and study the card. I reminded her that this was probably the worst race to bet on, so many runners, so many with chances and no clear favourite. She then decided she liked Lesson In Humility as it carried number 10 (her birthday) and was drawn stall 3 (a number she likes, I forget why, her house number back home I think) - plus it had a cool name. I had just seen it move from 16/1 to 14/1 and as I was suggesting she go each way, should she choose to back it, some cut it to 12/1. That was enough for me, I pushed her towards the last guy offering 14/1 as his neighbour cut it to 10/1. You know it waltzed home. I was on the Pricewise horse, which was nowhere. She also backed two more horses, one was unplaced and the other was Esoterica (which she only picked for it’s Scottish connections, she didn’t know I was backing it) which gave her a fine record of 2/3 and a scoop of around £140, from £25 placed.

I had three bets the other day, all of which were losers. Shame really because my July strike rate was quite high until then. Stat attack for July: 44.44% from 27 bets, total return of 28.94 points. Also, 8.74 points £1 level stakes profit. A good month really, which saw me reach an all time high before the slight dip at the end. Graph attack:

I haven’t played the A-Z game for 24 days, for one reason or another, so I’ll have to resume that soon. For those of you who were following it, I’m on ‘L’ and haven’t placed any bets yet. I may wait for the football season to start. My current score is 4.16 points profit.

The main reason I haven’t been gambling much is because I’ve been whoring bonuses. I don’t want to blog too much about that as I don’t want to risk losing my good thing, but I broke the £1,000 barrier yesterday and I started on June 28th – a nice months work. If you want details, you know where to contact me. I’m about dried up now, that I know of there is only £300 I can get at, so I’m now relying on the bookies offering me generous reloads and loyalty offers and new websites popping up. Roll on the new football season. I did make a quick £90 yesterday by signing up at JackpotJoy via Quidco. I deposited the required £10 and played Deal Or No Deal slots, scooping a £43 offer from the banker and a £73 something offer. Of course, I had to piss a lot of it away to meet the wagering requirements, but it did manage to cash out a round £60 profit plus the £30 cashback from Quidco. Hurrah!

Okay, so that’s me all up to date on the gambling front. Take it easy folks.

I'm Not Dead...

It's been a long time since you've heard from me (I guess that makes you the lucky ones, then !) so I figured it was about time that I gave you a quick update on what has been going on in my world in recent weeks.

Most of you know that on June 25th, I was admitted to York Hospital to undergo my gastric bypass operation, and apart from a couple of minor mishaps whilst in surgery, I can report that this was a success. I was both shocked and delighted to find that on attending the outpatients last week I had lost just over 3 stone in 4 weeks ! Weight loss prop bet, anyone ? ;-)

I've also started getting back into motorcycle racing again after a few years in the wilderness whilst living in Dundee, and have been involved in sourcing parts for an upcoming project where I will be assisting in the building of a sidecar racing machine, although my input has probably been less than helpful at times due to feeling pretty lothargic since the operation.

Gambling and poker has taken a back seat since early this year, although I shall be having a think now the footie season is fast approaching in terms of who the movers and shakers shall be come the season end. Quite fancying shoving a few quid on AC Milan to take the UEFA Cup - Coral are offering 7/1 right now on this.

Thanks for reading,
Mountain Man

Neteller! Nooooo!!!

Just tried to withdraw there from neteller, and they've changed the charge for withdrawing to your bank account on a bank transfer from £1 to £5. So that sucks!!!

Saving and Shaving

Its been tough. I went on tilt after like 1 week of doing well, but I got greedy, never cashed out and consequently almost went bust. I've managed to scrape together a cashout of £50 which is the equivalent to £1000 to anyone who isnt skint, but my 'roll' isnt growing. Still at $40 (lol). I've also got rakeback on the go which will give me over €50 back, again, pennies, but you take the small victories when you can!

Hopefully I can keep making small cashouts until I'm out of the ... mire ... of not having ANY money whatsoever.

Congrats to Dom on his free bet thingy, I hope you can get something good out of it.

Oh yeh, and I shaved recently. It feels good.
Thats all, folks!

Sports betting requires skill

Sports betting requires skill, there's no two ways about it. Mugs are not rewarded, they are punished and only those with intricate knowledge of the markets that they play will win out.

Let's take golf as an example. I have no idea about golf whatsoever, so when I entered the latest Beat Victor game at Victor Chandler, my selections of Padraig Harrington, Jim Furyk and Ian Poulter to win the Open were basically random- I picked Harrington cos I've heard of him and he won it last year, I picked Furyk literally at random and I picked Poulter cos he wears funky clothes, like our very own Scott Campbell.

Anyway, I checked the results last night to see if I'd scooped a free £5 bet by beating Victor's selections (Harrington, Rose and Allenby) and I saw Harrington had won and Poulter had come second. I explained to the missus that I'd probably won a free £5 because of that, which was cool. Anyway, it was only when I double checked my selections that I saw the overall winner won a £500 free bet (I genuinely had no idea about that when I entered, I was playing for a free £5 bet) so I thought I had best check how Furyk got on - with first and second locked up, I could be in with a chance! Furyk had tied for fifth and unless someone had picked Poulter, Harrington and Greg Norman, it looked likely I'd scoop the maximum!

Logged in to MSN this afternoon to be greeted by Scott telling me I'd won. Of course, I figured this was his idea of a sick joke as I'd spoken to him about it last night, so I went and checked and was greeted with:


Scoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooop! lol donakaments.

Nottingham owns

Just back from Nottingham – it’s a really nice little course, I enjoyed it today. Was pretty quiet, but considering the standard of racing and the fact that Southwell had a meeting too, it was quite well attended, similar numbers to the Perth evening card, maybe a few more. Taking a leaf out of the Scoop Troop book of how to dress for the races, I donned a tweed jacket, black tie and trilby hat (see right) and set off with my notebook and copy of the Racing Post.

Bad beat number 1: train problem, took almost around 90 minutes to complete what ought to be a 35-40 minute journey. Never been to Nottingham before and the time I’d left myself to find my way around had been gobbled up. Eventually found the right bus and got there with ten minutes until the off. Was only £7 return too, pleased with that. Admittedly, my newly acquired railcard did shave a few bob off, but still half the price of the York fare!

Went straight for the betting ring, surprised by how few bookies there were, more surprised that Moonage Daydream is being offered at 7/2. Picked out a blonde hottie in pink as my first victim as she was offering the biggest odds (4/1) and retreated to the grandstand. Was gutted that the 5/1 or 6/1 I’d expected wasn’t there, but at least I’d got the right odds to break even should it only place and furthermore it shortened up to 11/4 and went off favourite. It finished a good 2 or so lengths back behind the Hayley Turner ride (sigh) in a photo. I think it was awarded third. Staked 0.5pts e/w, Returned 1pt. Not a terrible start.

Found the bar, pint of John Smiths £3 not ideal, but basically exactly the same as you’d pay at any other course. Out to the parade ring to look at them because the next race was the maiden. I couldn’t remember what numbers Zuzu and Master Rooney were and rather than look it up, I decided to just pick one that I liked the look of – I don’t know what to look for really, I’m not an expert, but it was an interesting exercise all the same. Anyway, I decided I liked #13 and #2 and when I discovered that Zuzu was #13, that made my decision for me and I went in for a point at 15/8 (Master Rooney being 13/8, the rest massive). It scooped by a length and a half (see bottom, first video) and the other one I had liked the look of came second last :D Staked 1pt, returned 2.88pts.

In the third race, I knew I would be backing Colorado Springs, it was just getting the price right. I was once more disappointed to see my pick shorter than I had expected, this time at 9/4 and despite waiting and waiting and waiting, it never moved. I got my 2 points on and some bookies started going 85/40, the only time it moved even slightly. It ran it’s race, but the two that finished ahead of it were canny and although I wasn’t surprised to see One Called Alice beat it, I was a bit surprised by the winner, which sadly went unclaimed. Seems like a nice prospect. The last half furlong can be enjoyed at the bottom, the last video. Staked 2pts, returned 0pts.

Straight to the betting ring for this one as I knew the price wouldn’t get any bigger. They all opened at 8/11 on Montbretia and though I wanted evens, I knew I’d not get it so I ploughed my 3 points in and went for beer and chips. Went right up to the rail to watch this one and although the favourite took her time to get going and Spencer looked like he would win on Time Control, she finally kicked on and scooped by 3 parts of a length. Staked 3pts, returned 5.18pts.

The trend of my reasonably priced e/w shots being priced up really short continued in the next, as Ink Spot and Hannicean both opened up at 9/4, nowhere near the 5/1 I thought I was going to get, so I took a few minutes to decide what to do. The price wasn’t moving so instead of 1pt e/w, I decided to go 2pts on Hannicean. Ink Spot did it’s work late on but I feel Spencer left it too late and was almost a length back, my selection was third. Staked 2pts, returned 0pts.

I’d realised a trend here, my results had gone 3, 1, 3, 1, 3 and I’d got Sarah Park as my e/w pick. I contemplated going 1pt e/w and hoping the trend would continue, but so far I had basically done everything as I had intended and it was working. At York I changed my mind late on a few times and was punished for it, so I stuck with my original shout and just went 0.5pts e/w. At least I got the price I wanted this time, 5/1. I was right up against the rail for this one too, the favourite was a good couple of lengths behind my pick and the 12/1 Barataria finished a respectable third, by a neck. I knew I should have put more on ;) Staked 0.5pts e/w, returned 4pts.

Three winners, three thirds and a profit of 3.06pts. I’ll take that!

Bad beat number 2: check my emails on the bus and Texperts have sacked me. Sacked by email, what a disgrace! Oh well, suppose I’ll just have to keep backing winners…

Got in and went straight online to back Knot In Wood in the 20.00 at Hamilton after all I’d read about it in the RP. Also discovered Matt Doyle had tipped it. Managed to get 5.2 on Betmate, just a single point as Spotlight had actually napped the co-favourite and it was a massive field. It won, anyway, for a return of 5.2pts.

Overall then, I’m on 45.55 points after a total haul of 7.27 points today. Scoop!

Eezer Goode, Eezer Goode He's Jonny Ebeneezer Goode

As some of you may remember, back in 2004(I can't believe it was that long ago) me and a certain horse called Jonny Ebeneezer struck up a winning run. I basically had followed this horse since I first started betting and I was even torn one day when he and willhewiz met in a claimer. Fortunately for me I plumped for the winning willhewiz that day.

In 2004 Jonny came I think I backed him in 4 of his wins in 2004 including a win at 20/1(sp 14/1) for Hayley Turner. The horse was trained then by David Flood who improved the horse by around 50lbs. For some reason Flood lost the horse (and was later controversially banned from training for a year) and ever since Jonny has been trained by a succession of useless cretins, namely M Wellings and K McAulife. With those 2 trainers he achieved nothing and has beaten home only 12 horse in 10 races spanning 3 years.

This year Jonny is back with David Flood and is now on a handicap mark of 62. He has had two runs this season and whilst not setting the world alight he showed a glimpse of form in his last run finishing 5th over 5F off a mark of 67. He runs tomorrow night in the 8.20 at Lingfield and has dropped a further 5lbs to 62 and runs over 6f his optimum trip. Perhaps I am being foolish thinking this horse can still win races and letting my heart rule my head but I really like this ones chances tomorrow night. The trainer should have him spot on now and at the predicted 10/1 I shall be investing some of my wages. The horse owes me nothing and even I didn't back it I would take immense pleasure in seeing this old favourite of mines win again.

PS Sorry for being AWOL for past couple weeks.I have been incredibly busy. I meant to post a blog of my trip to Perth where i had a very successful day but just didn't get the time. Oh and is anyway interested in a trip to Cheltenham for the November meeting?

Going to Nottingham

Okay, so I’m going to Nottingham tomorrow. There’s a 6 race card and there’s a few I fancy, so I’m hoping to rob from the rich (the bookies) and give to the poor (me) just like that famous Nottingham based (but actually a Yorkshireman) tree dweller, Robin Hood. It’s been raining quite a bit down here, this morning’s inspection said Good, Good to Soft in places and its probably going to rain overnight and in the morning, so I expect Good to Soft to be about right. It’s not a track I’m familiar with but research suggests there’s a slight bias to the low numbered stalls in 1m races and either very high or very low numbers in the sprints.

The 14:15 is a 6f sprint and there are several with chances. I won’t be going in big at all on this one and I suspect that were I not actually there, I would steer clear of this race. But as I WILL be there, I will be punting in every race :)

I like Moonage Daydream as things stand. Forecast around 6.0 or 7.0 it seems a good value bet for a single point e/w in a huge field. Last week it was headed on the line at this course and over this distance, albeit at a lower grade. That result was on Good to Soft, which is a positive and it came after a 4lb hike. Tomorrow it’ll be going off 5lbs lower. It’s also won before at this grade and over this distance. The forecast favourite Bonne doesn’t impress me (plus Hayley Turner is on it!) and I’d be most concerned by Jamie Spencer’s ride Devinius.

Conclusion: 0.5pts e/w on Moonage Daydream

The 14:45 is the type of race I just don’t even bother with, usually. I watch out of interest, but I try to avoid betting in these types of events. It’s a class 5 maiden for 2 year olds – yuck! Crap quality, no form and no experience, will be keeping the bet to the minimum here for sure. Everything I’ve read elsewhere seems to suggest Master Rooney will win, but that’s the problem – it’s so lazy to just say “well, it’s got experience so we’ll go with that one” and of course that means it’ll go off a crap price. Trouble is, I am still pretty new to this game and I still don’t really know what to look for in the parade ring and stuff, so in all honesty, I’m probably going to end up being lazy too and backing it. It will in part depend on how they run in the first race, as previously discussed.

Conclusion: 1 pt, not yet sure – whatever takes my eye and is drawn well, according to how the first race went. Likely to be Zuzu or Master Rooney, as they have experience and probably good draws.

The 15:20 is much more my bag, smaller field, plenty of form and 10 furlongs to reduce the amount of luck required. I’m afraid to say, and I know I’ll be shot down in flames, but I like the favourite. Well, the forecast favourite. One Called Alice is the main danger for me, it’s only raced over 10f once before and although it came third, 3 lengths back, having watched the race, it gets a bit spooked and jumps away a bit funny and it pulls a little early doors. I think if it settles right in this time, it’ll run a good race. Carry on Cleo has also acted on this ground over this trip and shouldn’t be written off, but Colorado Springs has had a second and a third off a higher mark than this, where the winners have gone on to race in much better company and being 3lbs better off than those times, returning to a trip that should suit, it looks the one to be on. The trainer’s in okay form (2 wins and 2 seconds from the last 13 and a good RP RTF stat, 70%) and has only been here twice this season too, which could suggest he’s found a race that his charge is going to be competitive in.

Conclusion: 2 pts Colorado Springs

The 15:50 looks a straightforward affair. Lura is described as an “interesting” newcomer by the RP so the market will probably advise there but that apart, Montbretia looks the obvious choice and is forecast to go off evens or likely shorter. This is almost certainly due to it’s performance running second behind Clowance, coupled with trainer Henry Cecil’s impressive record in maidens at Nottingham.

Conclusion: 3pts Montbretia

Some of you will have no doubt fallen asleep by now, so here's a hottie to wake you up. Now, focus!

Three of those running in the 16:20 ran today, so it won’t surprise me to see some withdrawn. El Dececy for example has come plum last after a stylish hattrick and will be carrying a ridiculous weight (10 st 5 lbs) should it run. Even with the 7lb claimer on board, that’s a lot to carry a day after running. Nothing particularly impressive about Kensington or Royal Storm’s runs today, either. I was tempted by the forecast favourite Ink Spot as it was only bust beaten at York recently by a really good type, but it’s done it’s best work over 6f and 7f and last time out was a first time visor, will be interesting to see if it can go well again in the visor. On top of that, it’ll be carrying a career high weight.

The Michael Jarvis trained Hannicean grabs my attention, albeit more for stats than actual horse. Jarvis has a good record here over the last 5 years, 25% overall for a £1 level stakes profit of £15.59, but notably even better with 3 and 4 year olds (30% and 33%, £12.94 and £6.91). He’s also a trainer in form, with 3 wins, 7 minor placings in the last 22, his RP RTF rating at 80%. It’s only win was a maiden last year, but a maiden that featured Maslak (three wins at this grade and has competed in higher classes) and it might prefer better ground, but I think it’s worth an e/w punt.

Conclusion: 1pt e/w Hannicean

The final race is the 16:50 and it’s another big field. To be honest, I’m so tired from looking at the other races, I almost can’t be arsed with this. I’ll be keeping my punting to the minimum as it seems there’s a few who could win it. I think I’ll probably just see how the market is with this one. The top weight took my eye initially as it only just sneaks into the lowest grade, but I think it’s still got a little to find and it probably needs to drop further before it can win. Brouhaha looks in good form, but isn’t drawn that nicely, it seems. As I mentioned earlier though, my opinion on that could change depending on how the earlier races are run. That said, it does seem to struggle to get in front, with a whole host of second and third places and at the price, it’s unlikely to be a good e/w bet. Sarah Park looks the e/w play here, second on seasonal reappearance at a higher grade and may have found the race to lose the maiden tag. The trainer shows a £22.88 level profit here over the past 5 years and a £21 profit with three year olds. There are plenty of stats that go against the selection, but at the forecast price is a difficult to call race, I’m happy with a small e/w punt.

Conclusion: 0.5pts e/w Sarah Park

P.S.
Had a single bet today, was on Matt Doyle’s 3 point tip. Checked it out, looked a good thing. Had three of my own points on at 9/2, it went off 11/4 and won by 3/4 of a length. Cha-ching. Return: 16.5 pts. Overall “real” total: 38.28 pts, an all-time high. 60% strike rate this month!

Dom's update

Okay, here's an update from me. Didn't have a great month in July. My strike rate was okay, but it seemed to be the little bets winning and not the big bets, which of course ought to be the other way round. Stats:

No. of bets – 58
Total profit – -9.01 points
Level stakes profit – -31.67 points
Strike rate – 22.41%

So I ended the month 12.48 points up overall.

So far for July, I've only placed 9 bets total, 5 of which have won for a total profit of 12.3 points. One of those was Kelamon (2pts) on Monday the 7th, which leaves me on 24.78 points in the "real" bets and 4.16 points in the A-Z, my highest total so far. I haven't placed any "L" bets yet.

Here's some graphical goodness. Not sure how to make them bigger, but they do the job. Running "real" total, followed by monthly "real" totals and A-Z overall total:





My blogging activity has decreased simply because my betting activity has too. All I've been doing really since June 28th is whoring bonuses. I've made around £360 doing that, which is cool, especially as I've still got loads more lined up. Plus I've been working every hour available at Texperts, trying to get some pennies for when HSBC remove my graduate overdraft facility.

I'm going racing at York with the missus on the 26th of this month, so I'll try and get some pictures and a little report up about that and I've got Thursday and Friday off this week, so I'm going to enjoy either Doncaster (Thursday evening), Nottingham or Southwell (both Friday afternoon) and again, will report on that.

In my personal life, my mate who I was meant to be moving in with has decided that he's not up for that any more, as his circumstances have changed. I'd normally be very angry at that, what with me having moved down here specifically to get a place with him (I could have stuck it out in Dundee with the missus for another year had I realised I wouldn't have anyone to move in with) but it seems I might have caught a lucky break. The infamous Millwall Mark Dillon has randomly decided he fancies living in Sheffield for a bit and by coincidence, he's planning it roughly the same sort of time I was, so I might now end up getting a place with him. Which would own.

Who's all coming to the IPO then, in October? I am! Probably won't play, as poker's not my thing, but will definitely be going for the piss-up, as it's Kenny's 21st. I'm running a trip to Fairyhouse on the 19th for anyone who doesn't qualify for the last day, which is goin to own. Never been Irish racing before. That reminds me actually, for those who haven't heard (I'm thinking Will, mostly) I'll be in Dundee for a piss-up on Friday August 8th. Dunno where we'll go or whatever but we'll get very drunk and such legends as Adnan Miah and International Superstar JJ Macs will be attending. Only one rule though - no casino. You can all play poker and talk boring geeky shit any other night, I'm only free for a single night so we're doing things my way. By all means gamble on my horse racing card game, but no fucking casino.

Take it easy.

PS stop fucking editing my posts, you cunts.

99th post - next one wins a prize?

I had the pleasure of enjoying young Dominic Field's company in the City of Discovery last night. As is life, it was short and sweet.
We spoke of this blog, and how nobody is around anymore. I don't know whether it was this conversation that prompted me to post, but I certainly think its a factor.

So heres whats going on in my head:

I have two jobs at the moment. They both last only 10 hours a week each. Thats 80hours a month at almost £500 earnings. A few years ago that might've been a lot of money. Its just not any more, especially with the lifestyle of drinking and gambling that I want to lead. I know I dont have a high rent or even council tax to pay, but my expenses are quite enough to leech away a fair chunk of any earnings.

So that got me thinking. I remember when poker used to be a lovely source of income. And I want those days back.

Starting from today, I'm going to play again. Maybe nothing has changed and I'll piss it away, but I'm optimistic. Its the good old £20 challenge again, but this time with a more patient approach without any added pressure of it being the only source of income. It aint even my 2nd source now!

So Dom and all you haters, (nobody even reads this blog, fs) I'm posting BEFORE I win, not after :D

Keep it real home-persons