Thursday, 24 April 2008

'A' achieved, 'B' begins + I r t3h n00b

Haven’t really found much to bet on for Thursday. It’s frustrating because I’m keen to get out of the red after my slow start and also to recover from the disappointment of Ballagran. Actually, while I’m on the subject, I have a little tale to tell which will certainly amuse you. I brace myself for the piss-taking…

Remember how I said that the jockey of Ballagran won on Amberleigh House in 2000 and so that was a positive? Well it sure was positive for the eventual winner yesterday, 7 year old gelding Notable D'Estruval. I can’t believe I made such a n00b error – the jockey on Ballagran was Paul Carberry and the winner on Amberleigh House was Paul's brother Philip Carberry, who would ride Notable D'Estruval. That’s the danger of looking at the form after a few bevvies – don’t do it kids.

Anyway, my A-Z game has probably found an easy ‘B’, in the form of Bayern Munich. The media ridiculously underrate Thursday’s UEFA Cup opponents Zenit St Petersburg and as such, the odds will be miserly, but this A-Z game isn’t about finding the best value and building a roll, refusing to take poor value bets - it’s about fun and mindless GAMBOOOL! For that reason, I’ll be excluding the Bayern fixture from my “real” bets, but it looks something of a sure thing for the A-Z game.

Bayern won the German Cup on Saturday and basically have the league stitched up, so they will be playing with confidence and more importantly, no real pressure, having already achieved a degree of success. They have scored 14 goals in their last 5 league games, 4 of which they won, the other being a 1-1 draw away at struggling Nuremburg, but we’re all allowed an off-day away from home. For Thursday’s tie however, they will have home advantage, but will be missing the prolific Luca Toni. This shouldn’t be too much of an issue against a side that have only beaten German opposition once before – Leverkusen in their quarter-final tie this campaign. That 4-1 away victory will have exposed them to the Bayern management and I fully expect them to be properly prepared, as they close in on a treble.

Zenit can’t buy a win at home at the moment, having picked up a meagre seven points from the opening six matches of their domestic league, lying 10th in the table. Factor in their lack of European pedigree – they are the only remaining semi-finalists with no European title to their name – and I think we have a relatively safe Bayern victory. The lack of Toni means I’m only going 2 points, rather than 3, but I am still pretty confident. I’ll wait until the morning for odds as they’re a pretty ugly 1.51 at Betdaq just now. It may be worth looking at some sort of handicap betting, we’ll see.

19:45 Bayern vs Zenit
Bayern @ 1.5
1 pt
Annoyingly this finished 1-1. The stats tell their own story: 18 Bayern shots to 8, 63% Bayern possession to 37%, 10 Bayern corners to 1 and 1 Bayern save to 13 [] - why oh why to I keep getting "outdrawn" on football bets?! Okay, tomorrow is another day.

For my “real” betting, as I said before, nothing really grabs me. I like the look of Nice Dream in the 17:20 at Great Leighs, but Hayley Turner rides. For those who don’t know, I have a dislike of her because quite literally every time I back a nag with her on board, it loses. EVERY time. I won’t be touching that one, but I would with any other jockey. Proper in the 19:20 looks nice too, but it’s less than evens on the early tissue and I don’t know if I can be doing with such a lack of value. We’ll see how it looks in the morning.

Betting for betting’s sake then (note to self – try not to do too much of this) I will follow the Matt Doyle selection, seeing as he seems to have returned to form (two wins from two yesterday). He fancies Duke Of Touraine in the 14:35 at Beverley, a selection backed up by, Racing Post and ATR’s analysis. It seems the step up (only a furlong) in trip won’t be an issue thanks to his family tree and the fact that he gives some of his rivals a full stone in weight shouldn’t be too problematic as the jockey, who won on board last time out, claims a useful 7lbs. Under a 6lb penalty as it is and already “ahead of the handicapper” in the eyes of RP’s Spotlight. The 2.74 price, based on everything I’m reading, looks like it will eventually shorten so I’ll take it now.

14:35 Beverley
Duke Of Touraine @ 2.74
1 pt
Wasn't on ATR so I didn't see it, but it won by 3/4 of a length. That'll do nicely. Official SP was 11/8 too so I'm pleased with that.


A-Z total: -5.30 pts
Days passed: 4

“Real” total: -1.26 pts

I forgot to mention, I was chatting to Neil "Hairy" Stephenson yesterday and he was telling me about how he liked the sound of my football "tip" (AaB) and how he was going to back it but forgot. I accept no responsibility if anyone follows me into busto-dom, these are not tips, only a log of my betting activity. There, that's my disclaimer out of the way!


TheHat said...

2 euro football bets, 2 losers.

give up?

moDtheGod said...

Er, no

TheHat said...