Friday, 25 April 2008

And the 'B' goes on...

Well I didn't expect to be looking for a 'B' bet, I cannot believe that Bayern didn't get the win, especially when I got home and read the stats/reports. Still, what can you do? Especially frustrating is the fact that Pharoah has hit onto a dead cert today and it's name begins with 'C'!

So let's start with that, Corrybrough in the 14:25 at Sandown. The sire of this horse (Kyllachy) won this very same race in 2001 and went on to become a champion sprinter. The thinking is that Candy has the same sort of route planned for this one. He's in okay form just now too and the booking of 2006 champion jockey Ryan Moore is excellent news, noone has won more money so far this flat season and he's currently joint 2nd in the jockey championship (though admittedly, it's still early).

I want to go three points, but there's a niggle that it's dropping a furlong AND it's not yet run this season. I am going to play it a bit on the safe side and just go with two. I am taking the 2.72 as well, as I can only see that shrinking from what I'm reading.

Another 'C' that looks good is Captain Webb in the 16:10 at Sandown. The colt has three wins from three so far, two in April, and as such it's under a 6lb penalty, so it's well under it's real mark. The going looks like being good to soft, which will suit, but the price is a miserly 2.10 at present (Betdaq). I'm going to take the SP on this one, as I can see money coming for either of the Stoute horses and the selection may drift a bit. Of course, I'll no doubt look stupid tomorrow when it goes off 4/6...

14:25 Sandown
Corrybrough @ 2.72 (Betdaq)
2 pts
Won by 2 lengths, scoop. Return: 5.44

16:10 Sandown
Captain Webb @ SP
1 pt
Ended up 5th, the Stoute horses were 1st and 3rd.

So for the A-Z game, there's not much that grabs me. Seeing as I have a 100% failure record on the football so far, due to all three finishing as a draw, I'm going to cheekily back Brest to draw with Amiens. Brest (snigger, tee hee) look better on paper, especially with home advantage, as Amiens are absolutely dire, but Brest are hardly a model of consistency and have scored just 32 goals in 34 games this season (20 in 17 at home) so they don't really look like sticking it to struggling Amiens.

Brest have managed to draw 3 of their last 5 games, scoring a meagre 3 goals and Amiens have an equally tragic record, drawing 2 of their last 5 and winning 2 (but at home, to equally shit sides, both by a single goal to nil) scoring 3 goals also. Remember, this game isn't about doing what's technically correct in betting terms (backing draws won't win you much long term) but rather it's about the GAMBOOOOOL! I started looking at this match with backing Brest in mind but quickly decided it has 0-0 written all over it and seeing as I'm in a rut of picking matches which end in draws, why not eh?

Oddschecker, which is usually impeccable, tells me the best price available for the draw is 2/1 but that's bullshit, because I can see 3.5 on Betdaq. I'm going to request 3.75 overnight and see what happens in the morning. If nothing is doing bright and early, I'll take the 3.5 cos we (3/5 of the Scoop Troop plus assorted morons) will be enjoying Perth Races and muchos drinking all day tomorrow. Update: took 3.5

19:00 Brest vs Amiens
Draw at 3.5
1 pt
I can't get it right with the football just now, Brest won 1-0. Super annoying.


A-Z total: -6.30 pts
Days passed: 4

“Real” total: 1.18 pts


TheHat said...

Surely the B you back has to win. If that game is a draw then it's not really right is it?

Your game, your rules but it would make sense that the selections have to win imo obv.

Mountain Man said...

Dom, you're the Brest

Mountain Man said...
This comment has been removed by the author.