Tuesday, 29 April 2008

'D' Day

My bets for April 29th, starting with the A-Z game:

Dark Missile looks like the class horse in the 16:40 at Bath and she was unlucky in her last outing. I was going to go with 3 pts but the trainer doesn’t have that much success on the turf, much preferring the all weather. The jockey / trainer combo has yielded a £38.38 £1 level stakes profit for 2008 so far, at a strike rate of 31.25%, which is obviously positive, but most of that is on the all weather. The only flipside to Buick’s (jockey) meagre 5.00% strike rate on turf, is that he is 1/1 at Bath, his only turf win this campaign! I’m going to cautiously include this as a real bet too.

Had a brief scare this morning when I saw Matt Doyle tipping (2 points) the other ‘D’ in this race, but it’s since withdrawn. Of course, that has messed the price of Dark Missile up nicely – was 2 overnight and is now just 1.72

16:40 Bath
Dark Missile @ 8/11 (Betfred)
2 pts
Morinqua seemed to love the soft ground and none looked like catching it, Dark Missile ran okay but it looked like it did need the extra furlong that it usually runs over. Came 2nd, pretty disappointed.

“Real” bets:

In addition to my A-Z bet, I have a few fancies.

Opposing the favourite in the 15:30 at Southwell looks a good bet as it ran horrifically last time out. Key Partners looks the best option dropping back down to selling company, especially with Sophie Doyle taking a very handy 7lbs off it’s back. She’s been profitable to follow on the all weather this year (£9.50 from 11 rides, £1 level stakes) and when linking up with this trainer, she’s had 2 wins and a place from 3 rides.

In the 16:10 at Bath, everyone is raving about the favourite Naughty Thoughts. It was unlucky last time out in coming third and still almost caught the leaders. I had a look at opposing this favourite initially (with Friends Hope at a big price) but the more I look, the more I can’t see past the selection.

Welcome Releaf looks a good thing in the 17:00 at Southwell. It finished between Imperial Sword and Balerno at Yarmouth and those two ran good races again yesterday, Balerno winning and Imperial Sword third, half a length behind. Today’s extra furlong should suit, if his breeding is anything to go by. No concerns about the jockey’s stats either and he’s won on this nag before.

15:30 Southwell
Key Partners @ 3/1 (Bet365)
Great start. Key Partners travelled so well under a perfect, patient ride and as soon as she got to the front, the favourite rallied a little but she only gave KP the most gentle of whips and it responded. I'm delighted with this, punters were steaming into the favourite and it went off odds on. Sadly, I could have got closer to 4/1 if I'd waited until just before the off! Return: 4 pts

16:10 Bath
Naughty Thoughts @ 2.6 (Betdaq)
2 pts
Not a good performance by Naughty Thoughts. I want to offer the soft ground as an excuse (the weather has actually changed the official going) but it was "unlucky" last time out too and I'm not sure how many excuses it has left. Note Hayley Turner on the winner, doing her best to fuck me up as per usual. 2 pts loss.

16:40 Bath
Dark Missile @ 8/11 (Betfred)
2 pts
As above.

17:00 Southwell
Welcome Releaf @ 3.65 (Betdaq)
1 pt
What a torrid run. Didn't want to go in and was unsettled early doors but it did respond to a couple of taps from the jockey and it did seem to want to get in front, once it settled down. A good ride actually by the jockey, for me. Won by a length. Return: 3.65

A-Z total: -8.43 pts
Days passed: 8

“Real” total: 6.09 pts

A reasonable day, the weather at Bath has harmed a couple of my picks, annoyingly the two pointers, but still, profit for the day. I'm away to see if I can find a 'D' on the evening card. I was thinking about Ryan Day beating Stephen Hendry in the snooker but last time I looked, he was 7-1 down. Think I'll ditch that! And doesn't Scott's bet on Hendry at 52 look massive now? Good luck, Campbell.


Horneris said...

Enjoying reading about the racing.
I keep a spreadsheet of all my bets, but take a completly different approach to you. I look for outsiders and never back anything under 4/1 as a single, usually never under 6/1.

If 4/1 or under i somtimes do multiples.

Good Luck.

p.s. I fancy Samizaat & King Daniel tonight at Sedgefield. Stuck them both in a £5 trixie with Norman The Great at Wincanton.

moDtheGod said...

The problem for me personally with only going for outsiders, is that I sulk easily. Backing bigger priced horses, you need fewer winners to make the money, but I can't take a long string of losers because I'm a mardy cunt!

However, backing multiples at short prices is, for me, a terrible ploy. You're just multiplying an already sizeable bookie edge. That said, everyone's opinions are valid and that's what makes the game so awesome.

Cheers for the feedback!

moDtheGod said...

Just cast a very fleeting glance at those races, King Daniel looks to have a great chance but I'd probably be tempted by Wee Forbes (yeah yeah, favourite backing etc...!)

Samizdat has a great shout too, I'd probably side with you on that one.

Both races look pretty close to me though, lots of chances in both, so I won't be betting. Good luck if you do have a punt on them.

TheHat said...

Hmmmm, turns out I only got 48 for Hendry, and it is only £2. Still, won't be complaining if he wins!