Tuesday, 22 April 2008

A-Z Day 2 / Punchestown Festival

Okay, here’s what I like today, to try and get away from ‘A’:

Weymouth travel to Aldershot Town apparently in good form (2 wins from 2, unbeaten in 4), but when you look a little more closely you notice that one of those wins was home to already relegated Droylsden and the other three results were against middling teams like Crawley and Grays. Aldershot have been in good form themselves. 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 home ties and 2 wins and 4 draws from their last 6 overall. They have now been promoted so will be playing without nerves, whilst the pressure is on Weymouth to guarantee safety. Also, Aldershot welcome back three players from injury/suspension, including 10 goal on-loan midfielder, Scott Davies. With the trophy being presented after the game, the Shots will be keen to celebrate in style. I am leaving it off my “real” betting as this time of the season, things can get a little unpredictable.

19:45 Aldershot Town vs Weymouth
Aldershot @ 1.74 (Betfair)
2 pts
Finished 0-0. Bit annoyed about this, even though it's not part of my "real" betting. Thought it was a stick on!

Got a few nags I like the look of today. I started out looking at Punchestown because it's the first day of the festival and, as I'm not working until 5, I'll be enjoying most of the coverage on ATR.

My nap is Pomme Tiepy in the 16:50 at Punchestown. This horse is class and I’m convinced it would have won at Cheltenham, had she not suffered the first fall of her career. It usually jumps well so I’m happy to forgive it that one mistake (even though it cost me money!) and she’s been rested ever since. A little rain overnight would have been nice as she tends to prefer soft ground, but according to her trainer, she has good ground form from her time in France so it won’t be the end of the world. With Ruby on board and a full stone in hand on the other runners, I’m more than happy to nap the selection. As I attempt to upload this, two horses have withdrawn from this race, which is pretty annoying as we’ll now get super shite odds!

Next up is an each way shout in the 15:40 at Punchestown. I started off looking at this because I was on Twist Magic at Cheltenham and most places seems to be talking it up to redeem itself here, but I’m not so sure. I think Fair Along is worth a small e/w punt, as Twist Magic finished behind the selection in that race at Cheltenham, along with Schindlers Hunt, Mansony and Newmill. First time blinkers will be interesting.

My final bet of the day is in the 19:00 at Towcester (Kerriemuir Lass) and looks set to go off as favourite, despite the forecast suggesting it’s a 4/1 third favourite. Lawrence Taylor of ATR makes this his nap and GG.com do likewise. I’m betting a little on trust here, but Taylor’s numbers add up and the two main threats usually race over a longer trip. Apparently, a change to front running tactics was what brought about it’s last success and it’s expected to follow up. Worth a punt, I feel.

15:40 Punchestown
Fair Along @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes)
0.5 pt e/w
Twist Magic did the job by just over a length. It didn't impress me and punters would have been sweating at times, but a win is a win and I probably should have stuck to my first instinct ;) As for Fair Along, it switched back to front running tactics and never looked in it. A failed experiment for me, but no great loss.

16:50 Punchestown
Pomme Tiepy @ 2.63 (Betdaq)
2 pts
Air Force One too good, ran pilalr to post. Pomme Tiepy was in touch and jumping okay but when AFO took it up a notch, PT didn't seem to have an answer. Pretty disappointed with this.

19:00 Towcester
Kerriemuir Lass @ 13/8 (BetFred)
1 pt
Well I never saw this race as I was at work, but according to GG.com, it was 15 lengths off the pace! Last time I trust someone else's tips!


A-Z total: -6.00 pts
Days passed: 1

“Real” total: -6.00 pts


I have had the shittest day ever. I overslept, I chose not to back Twist Magic, despite studying that race with backing it in mind (it won ofc), I backed Pomme Tiepy which was a big disappointment, god knows what happened with Kerriemuir Lass, I made a string of fuck ups at work and then I come back to find Aldershop drew 0-0!

This beer is going to taste fucking good, assuming I don't spill it. Probably have a couple, get my head down early and regroup tomorrow.


TheHat said...

I'm laying anything you back

moDtheGod said...

You should! Be a more interesting experiment than my A-Z game!