Monday, 28 April 2008

Week 2

I've had an okay first week. I'm in profit, mainly thanks to Diablo at Perth and I've been a shade unlucky with a couple. I've also had a couple of shockers, but you can't win them all. The A-Z game hasn't gone so well, I feel I've been a bit unlucky with a couple of the football games, but then I've also placed a couple of poor value bets. I set out to have fun only, I didn't care about maximising value, the idea was to gamble with gay abandon to help focus me on my "real" betting, but now I feel like I want to win, so I might cut out some of the crap bets. I say might, because if I do that and start making shitty bets out of my real roll as a consequence, I'll be going back to mindless GAMBOOOL!

Anyway, enough blether, here's what I like today:


I had an absolute dead cert for 'B' today (Bormo) but Alan King has pulled out all of his runners due to the weather, so I've had to scour for another. Blue Tomato appeals to me in the 15:30 at Yarmouth, because the forecast rain didn't appear and this one likes it firmer.

15:30 Yarmouth
Blue Tomato @ 5.1 (Betdaq)
1 pt
Looked a bit fucked by halfway, responded a bit to reminders and into 4th, but never catching the leaders. Money came for a few before the off, including the selection. Was a good race. Might have a look for another 'B' bet later, desperate to get onto 'C'.

Okay, after the spectacular failure of the last one, I'm going to try Beat Seven in the 17:40 at Windsor. Tony Elves of the RP likes this one and I'm clutching at straws, so let's GAMBOOOL!

17:40 Windsor
Beat Seven @ SP
1 pt
Hooray, finally off 'B'! Never saw the race but it's come in by half a length. Took SP as Beat Seven and Daddy's Gift were constantly exchanging favouritism. Both went off at 11/4, as it happens the best I saw at Betdaq was only 3.65 anyway. Return 3.75 pts. Now to look for 'C' bets!


In the opener at Yarmouth, I feel it's worth opposing the favourite, as it was green when winning last time. Sir Billy Nick looks a better option at the price, with the return from suspension of Shane Kelly and a useful, light weight. Yaddree is a threat, but I'm hoping it needs this run to get going.

In the 16:30 at Yarmouth, the likely winner looks like Greyfriars Abbey. The RP casts doubt over the attitude of a couple of the runners in the race and who am I to doubt the RP? Abandon is a threat but has had nearly a full year off the track so I'm thinking it will be rusty.

I started out looking to oppose the favourite (Kingsmaite) in the 17:55 at Southwell, as it steps up in class and seems to prefer running a place than winning. But looking at what to oppose it with, I really couldn't see much beyond Limonia, who also enjoys running places. The horrific all weather form of the jockey on Limonia put me off massively and looking at the stats for Philip Makin (Kingsmaite's jockey) for 2008 so far, it makes far better reading: better than 25% strike rate on the all weather (24/94) plus a £42.20 level stakes (£1) profit. Coupled with the trainer, the strike rate improves to 34.62% (9/26) while still returning level stakes (£1) profit of £32.37. I'll go with the favourite.

14:00 Yarmouth
Sir Billy Nick @ 4.0 (Betdaq)
1 pt
I'm taking some positives from this. The favourite failed to place, so I was right to oppose. I was right also not to go with Yaddree, as it was 2nd (admittedly in a photo). Sadly, Sir Billy Nick was pish (and drifted right out just before the off, to something like 6.5!). 1 pt loss.

16:30 Yarmouth
Greyfriars Abbey (Dawn Sky withdrawing adjusts my odds from 2.84 to 2.48, pretty annoying. Upping the bet to 2 pts now. Further update - managed to get 2.71 for my 2nd point, that reduction factor on the first is ridiculous!)
1 pt @ 2.48 (Betdaq)
1 pt @ 2.71 (Betdaq)
This was horrendous! Drifted right out to over 3.5, needed the hood to go in, travelled awfully and then just as soon as it looked like making a move, it got squashed against the rail. I swear to god, I don't think I can do any right today!

17:55 Southwell
Kingsmaite @ 4.7 (Betdaq)
1 pt
Good ride by young Philip Makin and travelled the best of all the horses, it deserved it. Limonia needs a longer trip judging by that single run. Won by 2.25 lengths. Returns 4.7 pts. Two quickfire winners, my luck has changed!


A-Z total: -7.55 pts
Days passed: 7

“Real” total: 4.44 pts


Mountain Man said...

Rain is on the way down the East Coast...just absolutely tipped in down here in the last half hour (York). Enough to flood my garden. They might miss it in Norfolk though. Best of luck for today, then you can bet on "Chelsea" to beat the scousers in the C.L. on Wednesday.

TheHat said...

Liverpool FTW

Mountain Man said...

Don't often feel the need to disagree with you Scott, but sorry, our opinions (and hopes) conflict on this one !

TheHat said...

mine is hope, as opposed to belief.

i certainly won't be placing any bets on that game!

TheHat said...

Come on Kingsmaite!!!

TheHat said...


moDtheGod said...


moDtheGod said...

I think it's no coincidence that the only one that won, is the one I wrote most about (and is stats heavy). Think I'll attempt to learn from that.