I'm Not Dead (I'm In Pittsburgh)

Just a quick off topic update.

Still little betting activity from me, I've been working my nuts off (put in a 12-12 yesterday and am doing 2-11 as we speak). Haven't even looked at the A-Z game of late. I've been whoring like a good un, I've turned over £150 in the week and am still waiting on £60 of free bets from Victor Chandler. That was only £50, but they invited people in the last newsletter to guess how many corners there would be in last night's final. Every correct guess would get a £10 free bet and I scooped!

Just had a quick chat with Basil Francis and his op has gone okay. So fingers crossed, he'll soon be losing the "Man Mountain" attributes that we've come to know and loathe. I mean love.

Where the fuck is Adnan? If his computer is really busted, that means no WoW - I bet he slit his wrists.

Where's Kenny? Is he dead, in a South Park stylee?

Scott - what happened in the weight loss bet? The fact that we haven't heard from you means you lost, right? Are you too poor to pay for the internet now or something?

It's oh so quiet.... SHH.....SHH

Saturday Bets

OK So we are on a recovery missions after a couple of duff tips yesterday. Some high quality tennis today and I am going to go for a value bet today at Wimbledon. Rafael nadal needs no introduction but grass is not his best surface and he is always going to be vulnerable. Only his desire gets him through the grass court matches and he hasn't impressed me. Therefore I am going to side with Nicolas Kiefer against him. Kiefer is a fine grasscourt player who has even run Federer close here a couple of times. At 10 on betfair this must be good value. I would most certainly recommend laying the current 3-0 Nadal at 1.84.

The horse racing today doesn't impress me-a real lack of quality racing and too many handicaps. One horse who does interest me, not necessarily for today but for the future. In the 2.40 at the Curragh a horse called Born to Be King takes my eye on breeding. By Storm Cat out of Quarter Moon who was a brilliant filly. He is Aidan O'Briens second string today at about 20/1 but I expect a big run and expect this horse to win next time and go on to make an impact at Group Level.

Suggested

Nicolas Kiefer to beat Rafael Nadal 10.0 (Betfair)1pt

Wimbledon Friday

I've picked out two decent bets for us at Wimbledon tommorow. Both see the men ranked in the top 20 at very decent odds to beat lesser opponents.


David Ferrer to beat Mario Ancic at 1.84 2pts
Thomas Berdych to beat Fernando Verdasco at 1.88 2pts

PS If anyone is free next Thursday I am hiiting Perth races-should be some decent racing and Twiston Davies is expected to have runners which usually means major scoopage.

Update & Wimbledon Bet

Ok so I'm starting to hit a major run of form since Saturday with my best run in a long long time. I'm hoping that I can keep my discipline and keep this run on the go without making any stupid bets or making rash decisions which has been a previous issue with me. I've had a fair bit of success in the last 3 days backing horses for places. The advantage I find in this is that there is that extra bit of leverage against shock improvement by opposing horses showing vast improvement. My two tennis bets have also both come up this week.

For tommorow at Wimbledon I can't see any match bets which struck me as value so I have moved to the set betting of a match to find some value.
Novak Djokovic is a quality player but is prone to losing a set in a 5 set match and Marat Safin is an enigmatic talent who will take advantage of any lapses. The bookies have Djokovic at 1/2ish to win in straight sets and whilst the betfair odds have yet to materialise I expect to be able to lay at around 1.70 and would lay at odds of up to 1.85.

Advised
Lay Djokovic to win 3-0 at odds up to 1.85

"K" - Kosciusko

Not been betting again. Since my last post the only bets I've placed have been matched ones, whoring bonuses. Made £56 so far. My pal made a fortune doing this but he didn't have any betting accounts, I've already got loads so I can't rape as many new account offers as he did. Oh well, it's still free money.

For the A-Z game I'm going to back Kosciusko in the 21:10 at Newton Abbot. Hopefully A P will do the buisness for me.

21:10 Newton Abbot
Kosciusko @ 5.0 (Betdaq)
1 pt

A-Z total: -2.64
Days Passed: 62

Wimbledon 2008

Wimbledon 2008

And so Wimbledon is upon us again. As you all know I'm a big tennis fan and have even been down to the tournament on 2 occasions. I'm hoping over the next fortnight I can find a few winners for you all on the mens singles matches. I will try and post my bet of the day each night and mention other bets that may be worth looking out for. I have chosen to ignore the outright market as I generally don't like tying up funds for a 2 week period. While I feel Federer is great value at his current odds of 2.22 I feel there will be better opportunities to back winners at this price on a daily basis.


Tennis betting is not for everyone with both odds short and the required outlay therefore larger. However there are only 2 possible outcomes of a tennis match therefore less factors outside our control. I am a believer that a bet at any price can be value. That can mean a 1.20 shot in a tennis match being good value. Unless something really stands out at those odds though I try and steer away as I don't have the capital to make the win worthwhile. I generally prefer to find opportunities in the 1.50 and above bracket. For example today I plumped for Simone Bollelli against Alex Bogdanovic at odds of 1.74 and he duly obliged against the toothless Bogdanovic.

In tomorrows matches I have only stumbled upon one match where I see value, that of Kiefer versus Benneteau At odds of 1.52 Kiefer may not appeal to you all but I expected the odds to be closer to 1.25 so its cracking value in my book. He has superb grass court form and was a semi finalist in Halle the Wimbledon warm up tournament. He has been a bit mentally fragile at times but now in his 30s he has calmed down a little and is a trustier betting proposition than in previous years. His grass court form speaks for itself with a career record of 40 wins against 25 losses. Compare this to Benneteau's 8 wins to 13 losses and you can see why this looks such good value.


Advised
3pts Kiefer to beat Benneteau - 1.52 (Betfair)

Kaateb can clean up at Pontefract

Oh yes, I may have got my timing spot on again. I expected to struggle with "J" but found a sure thing first time out and "K" could also be a tricky one. It looks like I may have found another good thing however, in the 15:10 at Pontefract. Kaateb only just missed out on his reappearance and is fancied to go one better this time. Detonator looks to be the threat, but the handicapper might have hold of him already. Envisage should be there or thereabouts but will likely need the run.

15:10 Pontefract
Kaateb @ 2.23 (Betdaq)
2 pts

A-Z total: -1.64
Days Passed: 61

Macarthur

I am all over this horse tommorow. 3rd in a group 1 last time, he is miles clear of the rest on form and I guarantee he will win the Hardwicke stakes at 3.05 on the bridle.

Quick Update - "J"

Going to go with Jack Junior in the 20:45 at Haydock. This is a ridiculously bad bet, but I figure I'm not going to get too many good tilts at "J" and a forecast 2/7 shot looks about being the perfect chance to get onto the slightly more sociable "K" at the first time of asking. I'm always wary of these types of races, but the selection is pretty experienced and has had a couple of seconds, it should have won one them too from what I've read. I'm going to wait until the morning to see what kind of a price I can get. Might just go with the SP and hope noone touches it at the price, it might drift a shade.

20:45 Haydock
Jack Junior @ 1.4 (Betdaq)
2 pts
Not sure why I took the 1.4 this afternoon, because I had a feeling it was lengthen. Must have just got flustered, been at work all day. Oh well, it went off at a much more respectable 10/11 and won by 3/4 of a length. In the black, oh yeahhhh! Could have done with some Kingsgate Native action at 33/1 for "K"...

A-Z total: 0.36
Days Passed: 61

Not looked at the cards for tomorrow yet and I'm shattered, so I'll leave it for now. I love the idea of backing the DUPS-tastic "Bad Beat" in the 14:30 at Ascot though, at 80/1. Might have a few pence e/w for a laugh!

Night night.

Bronze Cannon can shoot to gold

Before I start, I would just like to point out the massive coincidence that is Kenny posting after having some success. Expect Tim to return to posting after winning an MTT and Adnan to reappear after selling a World Of Warcraft character for £1,000.

I haven't placed a bet since last Saturday. I didn't consciously choose to have a break, but I threw in a shocker on the Saturday (5/5 losing, including a 3 point bet) and got a bit huffy. Then I just worked a lot and found myself too busy to study any. Also I've been skint, especially with my ex-landlords deciding they don't want to give me back the deposit that they owe. Sigh, I really can't be arsed with a petty legal battle, ship me the money already, it's all written down and you're just going to look silly...

So yeah, I've resisted the temptation to bet for a while, even with Royal Ascot on. It's actually been interesting watching purely as a spectator and it's probably done me good to learn that I can watch a race and not have to have a bet to keep it interesting.

That said, today is pay day and I'm probably going to get back into the punting swing of things. There's a couple I like the look of at Ascot. Patkai in the 16:55 Queens Vase looks a good thing. I'm happier backing it now that Moore's shrugged the monkey off his back, scoring his first ever Royal Ascot winner in the last yesterday. If it stays, it should win.

My best bet for Ascot though is Bronze Cannon (pictured, red cap) in the 15:05 King Edward VII Stakes. Connections rubbered the Derby for this one and I'm sure he won't disappoint them. Will enjoy the ground and beat Derby 4th place Doctor Fremantle before following up in style in an admittedly not that great handicap, but still 10lbs higher in the weights. I'll be gobbling up the 9/2.

I will also be backing Total Impact again, over at Redcar. My nap for my trip to York ran well in defeat from a crap draw and is running off the same generous mark in a smaller field (from another duff draw it must be said) but must surely go one better. Moriarty's 3lb claim is a nice bonus too.

15:05 Ascot
Bronze Cannon @ 9/2 (Betfred)
3 pts
Disappointed. Got a poor start and never recovered. not sure what happened really.

16:10 Redcar
Total Impact @ 3.35 (Betdaq)
2 pts
Didn't see the race but it's come second by a neck. Will try to view the race later to see if it's had excuses. Seems like it's been unlucky.

16:55 Ascot
Patkai @ 2.73 (Betdaq)
2 pts
VERY impressive. VERY. Return: 5.46

For the A-Z game, I'm taking a punt on Intersky Melody in the 17:20 at Redcar. There's a couple of others that could win it, but I think this one is nicely weighted and can give me a run for my money at an okay price.

17:20 Redcar
Intersky Melody @ SP (5/1)
1 pt e/w
Cha-ching! Wish I'd not gone SP, it touched 7/1 to win on Betdaq before the off. I'd have been in the black! Returns: 8.25

A-Z total: -0.44
Days Passed: 60

"Real" total: 12.48

Scoop!

Ok so Russia and Spain both won which of course is sweet. Was sick when I found that my ITV4 wasn't working so had to rely on updates on skysports.com. The bet was courtesy of a free bet on paddy power where they are giving new customers a free £20 bet if you bet £10. I turned the £20 free bet into £40 when a horse I backed placed. So full rolled on today's bet.

My girlfriend's birthday coming up next week so I withdrew to help pay for that. Not before placing bets on this week's golf - The BMW International Open.

Bradley Dredge @ 40/1
Ross Fisher @ 60/1
Robert-Jan Derksen @ 66/1
Colin Montgomerie @ 70/1
Peter Hedblom @ 150/1

Popped a couple of other on too to make it up to a round figure but I can't remember who.

Oh, I watched The Mist ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884328/ ) on ninjavideo.net and it is pretty good - go watch it.

Night,

Scott

Weigh to go Russia!

I'm all over Russia tonight. They're all over Sweden at the moment so I hope they can turn the dominance into a goal. Arshavin looks lively and the left back, Zhirkov, looks vv good although I'm sure he is a winger on FM.

Cut 5 pounds in two days through pure hard work, abs pummelled my exercise bi

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ke. Looks like the weight loss prop bet is gonig to be ridic close so me and Baz are currently discussing some modification to the bet so that someone doesn't lose by like 0.1% or something. I'll post up my pic of scales next time I get a chance.

Lets go Russia. Also, a win for Spain would be pretty nice too as I've doubled them.

Graduation tomorrow, should be fun.

Scott

Small betting my way

Im not present on this blog enough so heres a rather lame update of my gambling life.

When the Euro 2008 finals started I decided I couldnt handle life without a gamble.

I've sort of fell out of love with poker at the moment, and my dreams of building a super poker roll were torn apart when I gave up and played blackjack instead and lost. Im not sure about poker anymore, which is a shame as it used to be fun.

On top of that I'm skint so there wasn't going to be much that I could contribute to the Scoop Troop blog, except my mum for your mum jokes.

But at some point I found a spare £12 that I wasnt using and whacked that into bluesquare to begin frolicking around with.
What I decided was: £12 isnt a lot of money so why not just bet £1 on everything you want to bet on, that way you can get plenty of bets on the go. How gay, indeed.

With little to no modern football knowledge, this was going to be tricky.
My tactic was to bet on results that I felt were quite likely, with lots of hedging.
I put money on shit loads of 'correct score' bets and the like, only managing to keep my tiny bankroll afloat when Sneijder gets MOTM at 8/1 and Sweden win 2-0 vs Greece at 11/1.
After a while I was running quite well at £6.50 up with bets on holland to win e08, germany to get to the final, and portugal to the semis, before todays matches.

Thanks to 'skinny' baz who recommended Haradasun to me at Ascot. If i wasnt such a stingy cunt the amount staked may have broken the £5 barrier. But yeh I did bet on that £2.25 e/w and got paid off when it won.
I then pushed the boat out and bet a massive £2.50 on these three, hedging as usual.
Under 2.5 goals @ 10/11 France v Italy £4.77
Italy 1-0 @ 15/4 To Win - Lose
Italy 2-0 @ 100/30 To Win - £10.83

And finally £1 on Holland 2-0 @ 14/1 To Win - £15

So yeh I'm actually scooping somewhat tonight! £30 profit is pennies, and pennies is what we're playing for!
Thats me just about even from the madness of the greyhound derby. I was gutted when 40/1 Toosey blue got put out in the semis as it had a great chance of winning if it got through to the final. And Kryptonite was about as useful as Adnan on a football pitch even though it got through to the final.

I've still got £10 in the account for more fun betting too, so give me a shout if you have any more lovely bets for a skinto like me.

As for Stephen - mon the Dutch! I've always liked 'em, I swear.

Ken

Fuck My Life!

Looks like I'm going to lose the prop bet with Baz. He seems to have shed a shit load of weight. I text him this morning and he replied saying he was 12,13, whilst I was the same weight as last week despite eating super healthy and working out a bit. Looks like I'm going to be shipping him the £75 but I'll keep trying, although graduation this week could be a nightmare.

I'm still praying he'll text saying he was only joking.

Scott

York Review

So I went to bed last night and pondered what to do today, as I had the day off. My friends back home were all working and my best mates in the village were, rather homosexually, playing badminton in the evening (nowt wrong with that per se, but Friday night ffs?! Go and get pissed! Play faggot sports midweek!) So anyway, I had glanced at the RP website before bed and I knew there was racing at York, so I thought "fuck it, let's go".

Got up this morning, bus from the village to Chesterfield (40 minutes); train to York (around an hour, £20 return! Farce!); bus from the station to the course (very respectable £3 return and far more buses than Perth - fair play to YOU York Races).

Got there, HEAVING with totty. I mean overflowing. Plenty of folk properly scrubbed up, but today's meet wasn't that big so I didn't feel too out of place, I opted for the cheapo enclosure which was still heaving with totty. I will leave the shit jokes about fillies to Will. Also worth noting that £4 entrance fee is more than respectable, the views were fine - I stood by the winning post for races, watching the bulk of it on the screens and then enjoying the final furlong up close. £4s worth of awesomeness.

Having never been to York before, I wanted to take a few snaps of the surroundings. The above picture is the main stand, quite early at this point so noone's in it. The one below is much later on, you can see it's a bit more full. I am watching the horses go to post at this point and it's raining, so many of the punters are still indoors. I think it was £12 to get in the cheaper stand and £30ish for the super duper, jacket and tie job - very respectably priced I have to say.

The photo below is my best bet of the day (for York) Total Impact going to post. It was second in the end, beaten a length by a 14/1 shot, Sohraab, Jimmy Quinn's third winner of the meeting.

The photo below is my only winner of the meeting, Smalljohn, going to post. The resolution is low so I could attach it to an SMS. I sent it to Laura saying something along the lines of "this one's going to win". It did :D

Here's some more random scenery. In the enclosure you don't have access to the parade ring, but where I am standing here, you can just about see what's going on by craning. And you can also enjoy the screen. If you're just going for the day out and you're not fussed about looking for clues in the paddock, this is a pretty sweet (and as I keep saying, awesomely priced) area to be in.And finally, here's a short clip of some nags going to post in the 16:00, won by Smalljohn.

As this was an impulse thing, I hadn't really planned what to back. I'd done no studying at all. I got up, took note of GG.com's tips for the meet, similarly ATR's tips and then I bought the RP for the train. I had 2 points on every race, somewhat foolishly.

In the first, I was going to back Viva Ronaldo and then I saw it was favourite and I was a bit annoyed, I was hoping it would be slightly longer. Anyway, I stood about for ages waiting for the price to lengthen and it didn't. For some reason, I went away and re-read the RP and noticed that the trainer has a shit record with 2 year olds at York and the trainer of Every Second had a better record, so I backed Every Second. The odds shortened up and it seems it went off favourite. But it came second, to Viva Ronaldo :D

In the second race, I backed King Of Rhythm at 8/1 e/w, I didn't expect it to win but I didn't expect it to be so pisspoor. Came well back. It was a flip for me between that and Nevada Desert, for opposing the favourite. Nevada Desert placed at 9/1, frustratingly. The bad beat in this race was that Kirsty Milczarek was supposed to have her one and only ride at York on Dado Much but it was withdrawn, so I never got chance to stalk her. Bastard!

I went with Bollin Felix in the third as I didn't fancy the favourite. I was hoping to be "Bollin" all the way to the bank, especially as the price just kept on shortening. It finished third in the end.

My wait for a winner was broken in the fourth race, with Smalljohn comfortably ahead of the favourite by a couple of lengths. Those two were well clear of third. I was pretty confident about this one and was baffled by Heaven Or Hell's price moving from around 9/1 to 7/2 (went off joint favourite in the end) as I was reading that it wouldn't like the ground. It finished 7th, a long way back.

I thought I had turned the corner now, as my best bet for the meeting was to come, followed by my next best. As it happens, Total Impact ran a good race but Jimmy Quinn was a machine today, and he got Sohraab home by a length.

The super sickener was that my next best was a non-runner, I must have missed that announcement. That left me with just 20 minutes to see what I fancied in what was a very trappy race. I plumped for my first deliberate "back the favourite" bet, as I had noted that no favourites had won yet and surely we couldn't leave without one favourite winning? Well we did, Potentiale was third in a great finish. Naughty Thoughts, the nice all weather horse which I had written off purely on that basis, got up by a head from Sporting Gesture, with Potentiale about a length back, though it had been right in the mix. Fair play to the handicapper in this one, there were five in a line a furlong or so out.

So I spent 12 points and recouped 8 of them. That was okay though, because the studying I DID do the night before meant I was on Goodwood Starlight (see right) for 2 points (20:00 Goodwood, on at 3.8 and it scooped). I also had a single point on Stringsofmyheart in the 20:10 at Chepstow (didn't win) and a single point (which never got matched) on Speed Up (love that name!) in the 14:30 at Market Rasen - came second by a head, so I'm glad it wasn't matched!

A good way to spend your day off. Next day off I get I will probably do the same. Hopefully Southwell or Nottingham has a meeting on!

"I" is for Impulse

While I am still on "I" in the A-Z game, why not by a little Impulsive? I decided at 3 a.m. that I would spend my day off (seeing as every other cunt is at work) by nipping on the train to York, to enjoy the fayre.

Pics later. Have a good day and happy scooping!

US Open Golf

Hoping to ship some monies by selecting the winner of the US Open. I remembered Betfair sent me a golf form book last year and it has some info on Torrey Pines and who runs well there etc. So I've picked:

Andres Romero @ 85


Robert Karlsson @ 85


Tim Clark @ 100


Steve Stricker @ 150


Brandt Jobe @ 960


One of these bitches better do the business. Another point of note is Tiger Woods at 4.5ish which is massive for him.

Good Luck with any bets,

Scott

Round 1: Stricker gets off to a flyer and is -4 thru 7 or so. I flick to Sky Sports for the start of the coverage and immediately see him go double bogey, bogey, bogey. He ended the day +2. At the same time as Stricker's demise Karlsson jumped into the lead on -4 but he too fell away and had to be content with a -1 round. Romero shot level par 71 whilst Clark shot 73. Jobe was clearly 960 on BF for a reason as he is +3 thru 7. Leader is likely to be -4ish so reasonable happy with the first round efforts.

I I Captain

I have a pick for 'I' today, in the 17:25 at Newbury. Im Ova Ere Dad is a horse I've seen run a few times and it should be capable of winning again today, despite a penalty. If I'm honest, I'd want a bigger price than the 2.5 I can see at Betdaq just now, as it's giving the best part of two stone to the bottom weight horse. That's the reason this isn't included in my "real" bets today, but the A-Z game is my bit of fun so let's GAMBOOOL!

17:25 Newbury
Im Ova Ere Dad @ 2.5 (Betdaq)
2 pts

A-Z total: -6.69
Days Passed: 52

In other news, I had a slightly down day yesterday, had the Milczarek ride won in the last race at Kempton rather than placed, I'd have been coining it in, but still - can't win 'em all. The day before I had a good scoop in the form of Cyd Charisse in the 20:30 at Southwell (2pts @ 6.4) but Winter Bloom (2 pts @ 3.75) and Caribbean Coral (1 pt e/w, 7.4/2.6) disappointed, costing me.

"Real" total: 19.72

My only bets today are small ones on short price horses. I can't see much I like to be honest. Mujahaar looked good last time and and surely won't need to improve much on that to win today. I am always wary of these types of race though and will only be staking a single point. Metal Madness was a bit crap last time out, but should be back to his best over a more suitable distance.

15:00 Haydock
Muhajaar @ 2.7 (Betdaq)
1 pt

16:00 Yarmouth
Metal Madness @ 4 (Betdaq)
1 pt

Update from Will

I plan on writing my proper intro soon but in the meantime I 'll give a rundown of my activity over the last few days and bets for tommorow.

I deposited some cash in betfair on Sunday and am showing a nice profit so far but there have been ups and downs. The Ups include wins for Spain and Croatia in Euro 2008, the downs being losing Draw bets on the Holland and Sweden games and a short head defeat for Missioner last night. Still we are in profit and I hope to keep it that way with some interesting runners tommorow.

First up we go to Nottingham for the 1m6f handicap at 2.40 where Spring Dream will take the world of beating for Alan King. This mare has been in fine form this summer with a win sandwiched between two runner up spots. She steps up in trip which can only suit. She still looks decently handicapped off 71 and although trading at short odds of 2.54 currently this looks a perfectly backable price and I expect her to go off in the Evens-11/10 price range

We stay at Nottingham for the next bet where I expect Reclamation to take the 16.40 fillies handicap (you all know how much I like my fillies) This filly left all previous form behind to take a Wolverhampton handicap 30 days ago. She stayed on well that day and will appreciate the step up in trip being related to an Irish oaks winner and Record Breaker who landed the cash for us on Saturday. She has various entries later in the week which as anyone who follows trainer Sir Mark Prescott knows is of major significance as he often wins 2 or 3 races in a week with this type of horse. The predicted 5/2 could look big come the end of the race.


For my final selection we move across to the Gerry Weber Open in Halle where I expect Nicolas Kiefer to upset Mikhail Youzhny. Kiefer has reached the final here in the past and is at his best on grass. Whilst Youzhny has a 3-1 head to head record, Kiefer took their last meeting on hardcourts last summer and I expect a similar result tommorow. Youzhny was impressive in beating Tursonov but he is an up and down character (search for him on youtube and see him smash a racket on his head) and Kiefer is the type of player to exploit that fragility. Available to lay at 1.74 I will be doing so.

Roundup

14.40 Nottingham - Spring Dream
16.40 Nottingham - Reclamation
Gerry Weber Open Halle - Lay Youznhy at 1.74

A-Z review: Whooooa, we're a third of the way there....

After striking gold (orange, surely?) with Holland’s three goal triumph over Italy, the A-Z game is progressing nicely. I’m actually not even that much down overall! As I’m now a third of the way there, I thought it was time for a review.

A: I took 5 bets to move away from the first letter of the alphabet, eventually scoring with Artic Shadow in the 17:35 at Worcester on April 23rd. Sadly the string of 4 losers had already put me into the red. Roll: -5.30 pts.

B: I had six losers on ‘B’ before eventually striking lucky with Beat Seven, in the 17:40 at Windsor (April 28th). Roll: -7.55 pts.

C: My fortunes seemed to have improved as I found a winner for ‘C’ on the very same day as ‘B’, in the 19:40 at Windsor. Frankie Dettori cruised home on Checklow. Roll: -6.43 pts.

D: Had 3 losers before finding a winner for ‘D’, in the form of Don’t Be Bleu in the 18:40 at Huntingdon on May 1st. The horse was subject to a large gamble – I had 0.5 pts each way at 6.7 for the win part – the official SP ended up being 11/4! Roll: -7.08 pts.

E: A nasty one for me this, with seven failures (one placed when I was on e/w, but of course that’s not a winner so doesn’t count) before I hit the jackpot, with my favourite jockey Kirsty Milczarek, on board Ermine Grey (May 6th). Roll: -10.25 pts.

F: Only had two losers before moving away from ‘F’ and one of those was the 540 priced Farley legend, one of Scott’s Greyhound Derby tips. The winner was Dougie Freedman scoring late on in the Leeds vs Carlise Play-Off Semi-Final First leg match (anytime scorer, 2/1). Roll: -10.25 pts.

G: After a couple of small failures, I placed two bets on the same day, June 2nd: Germany to beat Poland in the European Championships (on June 7th) and Gravitation in the 17:00 at Leicester. I hadn’t really expected the horse to win, it was just a small e/w bet and I was surprised to see it win. Germany delivered too later that week, making ‘G’ my only letter so far to have provided more than one winner. I actually spent 20 days on ‘G’, the longest time by far, but that was mostly due to moving house and not having the internet – I only actually placed five bets on ‘G’. Roll after first winner: -10.52 pts. After 2nd winner: -7.29 pts.

H: Not really much to bet on beginning with ‘H’ and I took my time, waiting for the Holland vs Italy Game, to make my first bet for ‘H’. Holland duly delivered, winning by three goals to nil and providing me with my second “right first time” letter. Roll: -4.69 pts.

I: today is my first day on ‘I’ and to be honest I haven’t really looked around yet.

A-Z Roll: -4.69
Days Passed: 50

And here’s the rollercoaster:

Dog of the Day - 09/06/08

NAP: T2 Penny Chives - 5.33 Walthamstow

NB: T3 Sparklynn Lad - 6.56 Romford

Both these dogs are pingers with decent times in races with no clear finishers. In the nap race T3 can finish but can't see it getting a clear run.

Halfway Point Weigh-in

Above is the picture of my initial weigh in 2 weeks ago for proof of some of the doubters out there. Fat bastard I know. I'm still fat but less so.

Here's how it goes:

Starting weights - Scott 203pounds (14stone7pounds), Baz 196pounds (14 stone)

Current weights - Scott 191pounds (13stone9pounds), Baz 186pounds (13stone4pounds)

So I hold a slight lead at the moment but was surprised by my weigh in as I had been stuck on 13'10 - 13'12 for like 4 days. Obv the weight loss will slow down for both of us now so it is going to be extremely close imo.

Massive beat for me is that the Thursday before the end of the bet I have my graduation which involves food, beer and cakes. Then the Saturday is the graduation ball which is more of the same which isn't good for the weigh in on the monday.

One Time £75! Lets gogogo Romania!

Scott

gogogogogogogogogo Romania!

On Romania at 48 on Betfair for a small stake. Also put a bit on Romania/Mutu top scorer at a pretty big price. They start their campaign tomorrow against France, win please. Had a small bet on Petric for top scorer but he looked shit today.

Abs gutted to see Podolski score two today as in my last post I said I fancied him for top scorer so obv I decided to not bet on him. This was mostly cos a guy in work who is big on his European football assured me that Podolski wouldn't be starting. Cock!

Tomorrow will be 2 weeks into the weight loss prop bet with CrazyBaz so I'll do a proper update on that tomorrow when I weigh in etc. Spoke to Baz today and I think he said he was down 8 pounds despite texting me every second day saying he was eating kebabs, drinking beer, and sucking cock.

Romania FTW.

Scott

P.S Welcome to our new blogger Will who seems to have chosen not to introduce himself - next post please sir.

Mini update

Tonight I work my last shift at Malabar and then in the morning I'm off to England for the forseeable future. It's not always been as bad as I've made it out to be up here; I've made a few good friends and there's a shade of nostalgic emotion about it all, but overall it's the right move for me if I'm ever to grow up, get a steady job and give my life some kind of direction, rather than the aimless drifting I've enjoyed these past two years.

We should have a meet-up in my neck of the woods in a couple of months. Perhaps Southwell races could be enjoyed, maybe fitting in a trip to Dusk Till Dawn too (both in the same area). Monday 28th of July could be a goer for afternoon racing at Southwell, with DTD the weekend prior to it. Maybe it's too soon, I don't know - get back to me on that one lads.

Anyway, my gambling slump continued until Thursday - I hit as low as 2.94 points on the bankroll before breaking my losing run with a 3 point lump on sure thing La Vecchia Scuola (which has actually cost me money recently) and things seem to be on the up once more. Matt Doyle and the RP got me another decent score on Friday with Emirates Skyline and Tartan Bearer, my only bet yesterday, made me a tiny profit when coming second to New Approach in the Derby.

Today I have another 3 point lump on, in the 16:20 at Worcester - Lord Ryeford looks a good thing. This was going to be me only bet, until I read Will's post. I have 2 points on Croatia now. Excluding these bets, here's my rollercoaster on the right.

In the A-Z game I will be enjoying a point on Holland to beat Italy at 3.6 (Betdaq) on Monday. I still have my Germany bet today for "G".

Germany vs Poland
Germany @ 8/13 (Stan James)
2 pts
Scoop. Return: 3.23 pts

Monday June 9th, Holland vs Italy
Holland @ 3.6 (Betdaq)
1 pt
3-0 Holland, return: 3.6 pts

A-Z total: -4.69 pts
Days Passed: 50

"Real" total: 12.71 pts

Todays Euro 2008 Games (+French Open)

Euro 2008 kicked off yesterday with a bit of an under whelming start. There is no promise that either of todays games will be any more exciting either but there should be a couple of good betting opportunities amongst the games. The first game to kick off is hosts Austria versus Croatia. I simply cannot believe that Croatia are as large as 1.90 on Betfair to win this game. Austria may have home advantage but with a team as poor as theirs(they are world ranked 92 to Croatias 15th) that will count for little and I see no other result than a Croatia win given the quality they have. Possibly by a 2 goal margin. For me the Croatia win is a maximum points bet.

The second game I don't really have such a strong fancy. I expect Germany to win but at 1.52 I don't see this as a good bet. What would tempt me more would be the HT/FT of Draw/Germany trading at 4.6. I expect a tight opening to the game but expect class will out in the second half and Germany will score a goal or two.

The French Open also takes place this afternoon where Rafael Nadal is a strong favourite to win and is hard to oppose having been in stunning form. Federers whole year has been geared around this one match and his chance to achieve legend status. I reallly want Federer to do it but even at odds of 4.0 it is hard to fancy him given his clay record against Nadal is 1/9. He has had opportunities win probably 4 of the 9 matches but seems to inexplicably lose form when he has a chance to close out a set against Nadal. For the in running traders there should be a few quid to be made as I expect a few ups and downs so I will be hoping to take some decisions during the match.

Dom's Derby Deductions

Saturday June 5th 2008, 16:00 - the 229th Derby Stakes, a Group One race for three year olds and easily one of the most prestigious flat racing prizes in the world, run over a mile, four furlongs and ten yards.

Last year’s race was won by Frankie Dettori on board Authorized (right) the 5/4 favourite who won like such a clear favourite ought to, by an impressive five lengths from the 6/1 second favourite Eagle Mountain. This year’s race couldn’t be more different though, with a whole host of horses in with a strong shout and we look set for a much tighter race, one which really makes the mouth water.

Before I start analysing the race, here are a few random facts about the race; some you will no doubt know, others you may not:

The race takes it’s name, rather fantastically in my view, from the result of a complete gamble. Edward Smith Stanley, the 12th Earl of Derby, created a race for his friends to run their fillies, naming it after his estate (“The Oaks”, also a Group One race run at Epsom) and it was such a success that another race was added the following year. He and Sir Charles Bunbury, a politician and leading racing figure at the time, decided to flip a coin to see whom it ought to be named after. “The Derby” was born.

In 1913, Emily Davison (the famous suffragette) was trampled by King George V’s horse as she tried to drape a suffragette banner on it, during the race. She died four days later - let this be a lesson to you ladies, doing the dishes is clearly the safer option. The same year the race was “won” by the 6/4 favourite but controversially, the horse was later disqualified and the race was awarded to a 100/1 shot.

In 1927, the race was televised for the first time by the BBC.

The last time a filly took part (the race is open to both colts and fillies) was in 1998, in the form of 11/4 favourite Cape Verdi, the 1,000 Guineas winner earlier that year, but she could only muster a 9th place finish. The last time a filly won was way back in 1916 – Fifinella. She also won the Oaks the same year.

Only four greys have ever won the Derby, the most recent being Airbourne in 1946.

The obvious place to start attempting to solve the puzzle of who will win in 2008 is with New Approach. Jim Bolger controversially decided to run him at the last minute after telling us for the past six weeks that he definitely would NOT take part in the race, a decision that is going to cost a lot of ante-post punters money. Not me though, because I would never back the horse over this distance! Anyone who read my Guineas preview will know that I opposed him as there were doubts over whether he could step up to a mile and if that’s a reason to doubt him for the Guineas, it’s a reason to rule him out completely for the mile and four long Derby. Perhaps I’m being a little cocky, he’s as short as 4/1 second favourite with most bookmakers, but come on, it failed in the 2,000 Guineas AND the Irish 2,000 Guineas and there’s some really good competition in this race. I expect it to drift on race day.

Another one I can confidently rule out is Rio De La Plata. Godolphin just aren’t firing at the minute and Saeed Bin Suroor has a poor recent record in this race; his last fifteen runners have all failed! Rio De La Plata is only here because they simply haven’t got a good enough three year old middle distance type – the horse very much prefers it over a mile.

Nine of the last ten Derby winners were in the top four in the market at the off and half of them were in the top two. That for me is just too powerful to ignore, especially when you add in the fact that only High-Rise (1998, 20/1) has won at odds larger than 14/1.

The favourite, Casual Conquest (left) was badly outpaced in the last of his two runs and had to be niggled at before he got moving. Still a touch green, trainer Dermot Weld didn’t seem that pleased with the run, but he’s clearly open to a lot of improvement and it’s going to be hard to rule him out.

Having already ruled out New Approach, the next market leader is Curtain Call but there are doubts over how he’ll cope with the ground, for me. He wasn’t impressive on his one outing on good ground in the RP Trophy and the going at Epsom is currently just that. His last outing was on good to soft but in a three horse race, with two vastly inferior competitors, we can read nothing into it. He’s also been withdrawn from a race due to firmer ground, so unless it pours down the night before, I feel okay about ruling him out.

It’s worth nothing that Michael Stoute and Henry Cecil have both trained four derby winners and that Aidan O’Brien has had two winners, two seconds and a third this decade. For me, the winner is going to be trained by one of these guys, O’Brien in particular stands out as his Ballydoyle stable is in terrific form of late, coupled with his impressive record in this race. That isn’t as bold a predication as it might seem, however; Cecil saddles one runner, Stoute three and O’Brien five – half the field between them!

It makes sense at this point to check out the Derby trials:

The Dee Stakes at Chester has produced two Derby winners in the last nine years (and only five actually went on to compete, boosting it’s credibility even further) but the winner of this year’s event Tajaweed didn’t impress me. I watched the race as I’d backed Tajaweed and when it was finished, I walked out of the room in disgust; I didn’t think it had won. The judges disagreed and I scooped, but that race really sticks in my mind, I really can’t back Tajaweed in the Derby after that.

No Chester Vase winner has followed up in the Derby since Shergar in 1981, which is a negative for Doctor Fremantle, though I still feel this horse has an outside chance – the each way thieves could do much worse than to back him.

The winner of this year’s Sandown Classic Trial won’t compete in the Derby (which is a shame as I got 100 about Centennial ages back, for micro stakes) which will extend the 22 year wait for a Derby winner by another year.

The one that really grabs me though, is the Dante Stakes. Six of the last twenty-two Derby winners had scored in the Dante, three of them in last four years. Tartan Bearer (right) belied his inexperience to win it this year, beating Twice Over and Frozen Fire in the process and of course, Ryan Moore will be on board; the 2006 champion jockey is in good form.

As an outside pick, I quite like the look of King Of Rome. Johnny Murtagh has chosen this one of the five Ballydoyle nags, which is a huge boost, though it’s twice finished behind Alessandro Volta. He seems to think it’s a progressive sort and that it’s come on a lot in a short space of time – who am I to doubt him?

In conclusion then, I’m finding it very difficult to choose. I wanted to oppose the favourite, I came into this with Tartan Bearer in the back of my mind and I’m really struggling to separate the two. Because Casual Conquest is a big sort and might not enjoy the track and because Tartan Bearer is a Stoute horse (plus it’s a bigger price!) I’m going with the latter. If the 7/1 on offer isn’t enough for you, I suggest a cheeky e/w nibble on the Murtagh ride. Don’t overlook Doctor Fremantle either, he’s already proven over the distance and the only reason I haven’t plumped for him is the fact that Ryan Moore chose Tartan Bearer over him.

My VERY tentative 1-2-3:

Tartan Bearer – Casual Conquest – King Of Rome.

Doom & Gloom

FFS, this blog is one big beat. Very few winners from us recently, maybe we should get some bets from Ken, he runs pretty good at sticking a pin in the paper! Maybe we should try playing more poker, but that's boring.

Got a few dogs today that are going to turn my fortunes around:

- T5 Climpy Windmill (S'land 3.38)
Has recorded 28.11 and 28.14 over the 450m track recently. T1 and T3 have ran a touch faster but the selection should lead up and secure the win.

- T4 Catland Fern (S'land 6.04)
I expect this one to ping out in front and hold on. Two wins from last 5 and a couple of decent times which means the chasers will have to go some to catch it.

Dog of the Day:

- T2 Baron Leighton (Crayford 3.28)
Should hold a major lead at first bend as it sectionals are much faster than anything else in this race. Recorded reasonable times so I take it to hold on and secure me some pennies!

EDIT: Baron Leighton wins @ 3/1. Small scoopage. On T5 Director's Chair in the 9.35 at Oxford after Rookie pointed it out. Can't see it losing.

Good luck with whatever,

Scott

Rollercoaster

After my stinker yesterday, you can see from the pretty chart that my slump continues. Have a few picks to turn it around today, Smoothly Does It (15:00 Ripon) and Magical Song (15:15 Southwell) are my best bets I think. That's all from me today cos my... the random n00b's internet is hanging.

Inernet theft ftw!

Been trying to post for ages but it seems the blog has been poorly today...

We still don’t have the internet plumbed in at Laura’s new pad yet, but amusingly, some nearby n00b has failed to password protect their LAN and I have been able to leech their internet for the last couple of days. Problem is, I can only get a signal with the laptop pretty high in the air, which makes it a bit awkward, so I improvised and put the coffee table on top of the bed… presto, 30% signal and free internet.

So as promised, here’s a quick rundown of my betting activity in recent weeks.

I’m on something of a downward curve, I’ve been unable to buy a winner. The roll peaked at an all time high in May 25th (31.7 points) but ended the month at 21.49 points. June got off to a frustrating start, my two bets yesterday finishing 3rd (backed to win) and 4th (backed to place at a decent price). That left me sat on 18.49 points at the start of today.

I don’t think I have actually explained how my roll got so high in the first place, so here’s the story. After taking those few days off earlier in May, I went a bit tilty after my 3 point and 2 point bets didn’t win, the day I returned. I chased by putting a point each way on Any Given Day in the 19:40 at Salisbury after seeing the market move on At The Races and it won (5.4 win, 2.1 place) and at the same time, I put 2 points to win on Tayman in the 19:50 at Worcester. When Any Given Day came in, I put another 2 points on Tayman, which proceeded to destroy the field, scooping me a princely 18.4 points. Two days later, I was on Staying On in the 15:05 at Haydock (1 pt e/w at 9.8 and 2.87) which was a nice little return. So yeah, I basically went on tilt, got lucky and then followed it up with an okay couple of days.

Since then I have placed 21 bets and had just 3 winners and 3 e/w places (excluding today’s bets). I haven’t had a profitable day since Sunday 25th May, although that said, I’m not having absolute stinkers, I’m just slowly losing (Saturday I was down 0.92 points, Friday I was down 0.79 points, Thursday I was down 1.5 points etc).

My stats for the month of May:

No. of bets – 113

Total profit – 10.12 points

Level stakes profit – 5.25 points

Strike rate – 23.89%

My “real” bets for today:

15:15 Carlisle
Midnight Mystique @ 2.97 (Betdaq)

2 pts

With no cable I haven’t been able to see the race, but it seems it was pish and finished way down the field. Was pretty confident about it too.

16:00 Leicester

Boundless Prospect @ 2.85 (Betdaq)

1 pt

This won by a nose from a 66/1 shot and went off at 9/4. Almost feels like a defeat. Return: 2.85 pts

19:00 Windsor

Calistos Quest @ 20 win, 5.9 place (Betdaq)

0.2 pts e/w

Novelty bet really, Kirsty’s on board, only ride of the day :)

Seems it was second last. bol

19.30 Windsor

Cheap Street @ 8.2 win, 2.7 place (Betdaq)

0.5 pts e/w

Smashed into, went off at 5/1, came 5th.

20:00 Windsor

Sonny Red @ 8.6 win, 2.98 place (Betdaq)

0.5 pts e/w

Another fails to place. Hmm.

20:15 Thirsk

Saleima @ 5.8 win, 2.16 place (Betdaq)

1 pt e/w

And another fails to place, completing a shocker of a day.

And to finish, a couple of quick A-Z picks:

17:00 Leicester

Gravitation @ 8.7 win, 2.75 place (Betdaq)

0.5 pts e/w

Absolutely unreal, I saw this horse and just picked it because it was a nice e/w price and had a couple of promising runs under it’s belt – almost for the sake of it really. I saw it had shortened up a bit and actually went off at 5/1. I am a bit surprised that it won, though I expected it to run a place. Cool, on to ‘H’ with a ‘G’ bet still in hand :) Return: 5.73 pts

Sunday June 8th, Germany vs Poland

Germany @ 8/13 (Stan James)

2 pts

A-Z total: -10.52 pts

Days Passed: 42

"Real" total: 13.94 pts

EURO 2008 Bets

My selection for EURO 2008 is.......... ROMANIA!

I think they are outstanding value in this comp, with the best price available being 54/1 on Betfair at the moment. The reason for the large price is of course that they are in the 'group of death' alongside Holland, Italy and France. IMO Romania can beat any of these teams. "We've" got some very good players - Mutu, Chivu and Marica amongst others.

Holland: Romania were in the same qualification group as Holland and as such have "form" over them with a 1-0 home victory and a scoreless draw away from home. No doubt Holland have some quality players in their ranks but imo are very beatable opponents. Mario Melchiot is in the squad ffs.

Italy: Boring and I hate watching them but that's exactly what I had to do twice when they were drawn in Scotland's qualification group. Wasn't amazingly impressed by them and I wouldn't have them amongst my favourites.

France: FFS, Scotland beat them twice in qualification. Romania can almost certainly beat them on that kind of form. Think I've heard that they have plumped for quite a few n00bs in their squad. I take Romania to beat them.


Had a quick look at Top Goalscorer market and although I'm undecided a few jump out. Podolski @ 25/1 (BSQ), Petric @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes) and Mutu @ 66/1 (SkyBet) could all make their way into bets of mine.

I'll no doubt be back with my finalised bets some time before the tourney starts.

In other news the poker has went horrendously for me and I suffered so many beats, it was unreal. Sticking to tourns now. Finalled two in a row on WH but a 9th and a 10th are no good.

New feature of my blogs is dog of the day where I will post up my best greyhound bet whenever I post. Wish I'd started this yesterday cos napped a dog yesterday to Horneris and it scored @ 7/2.

Dog Of The Day:

T6 Lisloose Lawrie - 6.48 Nottingham

Scott

P.S. Anyone interested in a $20 Sweepstake on EURO 2008? Can be done by shipping the cash to me on 'Stars and I'll hold it til the end of the tournament. Leave a comment asap and if there is enough interest I'll set it up. Cheers.