Thursday, 1 May 2008


I have to apologise for my domination of the blog, but it seems my fellow troopers are too lazy to actually do anything. Oh well, I will just have to keep on trooping alone.

My two winners from two yesterday (brag alert!) put me on a three bet winning streak and a three day winning streak, something I’m hoping to continue today, with a couple of big favourites (Kenny style).

The amusingly named Stevie Thunder (all in blind, perhaps?) runs in the 15:00 at Redcar. The selection has two wins and two places from his four starts and will now carry a stone more than the bottom weight, but it should be able to overcome that. The jockey takes 3lbs off, but then there are 3 other claimers in the race too. The notable thing about the jockey though, is his 18.42% strike rate for 2008 so far and his impressive £49.55 level stakes profit (38 rides). When paired with the trainer, his 2008 strike rate rises to 23.08% from 26 starts. I like these stats.

Everyone is talking about one of the horses in my notes from last night, it’s being napped left right and centre. With the withdrawal of Sky Quest from the last at Folkestone, it will be a 4 horse race and the price will be a shocker, but that’s no reason not to bet on Nutkin, who ran a stormer over course and distance in August under this pilot. If the ground turns heavy like it did yesterday, it shouldn’t be an issue as it was heavy in August and the selection made her seasonal reappearance on soft ground, where she was only just beaten by a couple of well handicapped nags. Hopefully it will be much sharper for that run.

Now, I don’t do this very often and I’m setting myself up for a bit of a fall here. Because I’m so confident these nags will win, rather than 3 point both of them, I’m going to back the singles for just 2 pts and take the extra two for a double. I usually despise short price multiples, you’re simply multiplying any edge that a bookmaker has and of course, if one comes in and the other doesn’t, you win fuck all (which is why I’m chopping it up a bit).

15:00 Redcar
Stevie Thunder @ 1.82
2 pts
Well I didn't see it because it wasn't on ATR but it's come second! All I know is Spirit Of A Nation beat it by a head. Not good at all.

17:20 Folkestone
2 pts @ 1.76
1 pt @ 1.8 * see below
Hmm, Nutkin finished 2nd by half a length, absolutely flying it was. It tried to get through a gap on the rail and the two in front closed him off. By the time it had switched outside, there was only half a furlong to go. It finished like a train too, pretty unlucky but that said, not a great ride by the jockey.

Stevie Thunder & Nutkin @ 3.20
2 pts
Oh dear, why did I do it? I know it's stupid, anyone with half a brain knows it's stupid and I even said I was setting myself up for a fall! I don't think I'm ever going to double up again, they're a waste of time.

For the A-Z game, Double Shot has a great chance in the opener at Hereford. I started out with this one looking at Strong Coffee as a real bet, but I decided to leave it as it’s a toughie to call. However, that won’t stop me picking the selection for the A-Z as it’s probably the ‘D’ with the best chance at the nags today and at an okay price.

Frustratingly, at work last night, it dawned on me that Chelsea were playing and I could bet on Drogba anytime or first goal scorer. I text Scott to get him to check the odds but he was in the casino, presumably trying to reclaim what he left in there after Perth races. I then sent him another text abusing him for being so damned inconsiderate and wrote another one out to the Mountain Man, asking the same question and if the odds were good, to blog it on my behalf. Unlucky, 9p of credit of left! Stupid pay-as-you-go. No idea what the odds were, but I should be on ‘E’ by now!

14:10 Hereford
Double Shot @ 4.4
1 pt
Not sure what happened here, was pretty disappointing!

Now, I know you don't all enjoy reading about horses all the time, so here's some light entertainment. I considered writing a bunch of abuse about Kenny, but he suffers enough. Just imagine waking up EVERY morning and being Kenny. That must suck so hard. Anyway, here's a joke for you to enjoy. Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does this taste funny to you?"

Come on, that's funny.

[16:00 Update] Found a 'D' that has a decent chance.
[16:34 Update] I am adding another point to my second bet, in a chasey, tilty stylee.

18:40 Huntingdon
Don't Be Bleu @ 6.7 win, 2.01 place
0.5 pt e/w
I looked at the market for this just before the off and it had plunged to 4. After I saw that market move, I got 2 points of "real" money on too (to win), chasey chasey. It dropped further too, was 3.75 before I got distracted by having to go back to work. Official SP was 11/4. Gamble landed, by almost 2 lengths. Return: 4.35 pts. "Real" return: 8.00

I'm going to put a point on Earth Mother in the 20:30 at Tipperary too, for 'E'. As unpredictable as these races are, the horse does represent the current leading trainer and amateur jockey.

20:30 Tipperary
Earth Mother @ 3.25
Looks like it came third, though I never saw it. I would never usually back anything in a point to point race, but as it's A-Z...!

I end today's blogging activity with a Quote from Baz there on MSN:

Filthy_Rotten_Hound. says:
Nice work.
Filthy_Rotten_Hound. says:
Always chase

Roundup: A-Z total: -8.08 pts
Days passed: 10

“Real” total: 10.37 pts


StalkerB said...

Lumped £14 on Nutkin at 1.79, since it's safe-ish to bet now that your first one lost.

StalkerB said...


Betting sucks.